Author Topic: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model  (Read 47648 times)

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Online TXCraig1

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #50 on: January 14, 2013, 05:23:34 PM »
If maintaining the starter % in a formula is important for some reason I'm not thinking of, the chart will give you the answer you are looking for: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,22649.msg230692.html#msg230692

I can give additional examples or color if needed.

CL
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Offline JD

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #51 on: January 14, 2013, 05:47:23 PM »
I had to postpone my pizza night from Tuesday to Wednesday, so obviously I can't adjust the Starter % and would like to know what my new 2nd stage (warm) ferment time would be since I'm cold fermenting for an additional 24 hours. That's why I presented the question for you, but you're right I can use the chart. It certainly made it much easier for me in the first place.

-JD

Offline Barry

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #52 on: January 15, 2013, 05:27:52 AM »
Hi Craig,

Thank you very much for the table with the Celsius temps. You are right about the "grams of yeast" - it can only be in percentages of flour.

I look forward to your chart for commercial yeast. Much appreciated.

Best wishes

Barry in Cape Town

Offline 3.1416

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #53 on: January 16, 2013, 10:51:02 AM »
TXCraig1,
That is a great chart! I am new to this site. I have been a sourdough baker for several years. Do you have a chart for the percent of fermentation growth per time at a specific temperature? I would like to follow your lead and keep my dough cool for some amount of time and then move it to a warmer or cooler temp for the finish. If I knew the rate of growth per temp per time then I could hazard better guesses.

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #54 on: January 16, 2013, 11:19:21 AM »
TXCraig1,
That is a great chart! I am new to this site. I have been a sourdough baker for several years. Do you have a chart for the percent of fermentation growth per time at a specific temperature? I would like to follow your lead and keep my dough cool for some amount of time and then move it to a warmer or cooler temp for the finish. If I knew the rate of growth per temp per time then I could hazard better guesses.

Does this give you the information you need?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0
"We make great pizza, with sourdough when we can, commercial yeast when we must, but always great pizza."
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Offline 3.1416

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #56 on: January 16, 2013, 06:43:58 PM »

Online TXCraig1

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #57 on: January 16, 2013, 07:21:16 PM »
Where have you been all my life?

John

Me or the spreadsheet?  :-[
"We make great pizza, with sourdough when we can, commercial yeast when we must, but always great pizza."
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Offline JD

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #58 on: January 16, 2013, 09:33:04 PM »
Ok TX I have some interesting results to share with you.

Friday night I made a 60% hydration NY style dough using 8.5% starter. I cold fermented in the fridge at a steady 45* until this morning (approximately 108 hours) and "warm" fermented at 65* for 11 hours. My original calculation using your spreadsheet was a warm fermentation of 8.5 hours (which got me close to my original starter percentage of 8.5%) but due to reasons outside of my control I had to push it to 11.

I have a strong opinion that my dough was under-fermented. In the pictures below you'll see a shot after the 108hr cold ferment, after the additional 11 hour warm ferment (did not reball or punch dough), and the final crust shot (chicken parm pizza from leftover sunday dinner in case you were wondering :) )

After the cold ferment, you can see there wasn't much for small bubbles. After the warm, again not impressive, however I started seeing a little more life right near the end of the 11th hour. The crust shot was fairly dense with not an impressive spring.

I have a suspicion that most of the visible bubbles are actually from bacterial by-products instead of yeast, and it wasn't until the dough was moved to the 65* temperature that the yeast actually started fermenting.

For the sake of experimentation, I created two identical doughballs on Friday. Sometime this upcoming weekend I intend to do a full 24 hour 65* warm rise with the second doughball to verify if the above is true. If what I'm saying is true, then a 45 degree cold ferment at 8.5% starter basically does nothing for fermentation, however the flavor was very tasty.

I'll post back when I complete the second experiment this weekend.


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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #59 on: January 16, 2013, 10:15:43 PM »
Friday night I made a 60% hydration NY style dough using 8.5% starter. I cold fermented in the fridge at a steady 45* until this morning (approximately 108 hours) and "warm" fermented at 65* for 11 hours. My original calculation using your spreadsheet was a warm fermentation of 8.5 hours (which got me close to my original starter percentage of 8.5%) but due to reasons outside of my control I had to push it to 11.

I have a strong opinion that my dough was under-fermented.

If your refrigerator is 45F, you have another problem - that's dangerously too warm for a fridge - it should be 38F max, and ideal is closer to 36F. If it's actually 38F, the model would have predicted 13.7%, at 36F, 15.6%. My guess is that you should have used somewhere 62% and 82% more starter than you did (given 11 hours at 65F). For 8.5 hours at 65F, you would have needed more than 2X what you used. Of course all of these figures come from the red zone, but it sounds like the might not be too far off?

CL
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Offline Omidz

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #60 on: January 16, 2013, 11:54:50 PM »
Craig. I'm going to test out a sponge/bulk ferment/ball work flow this weekend. my ggarage is a cool and pretty consistent 59-62 degrees all day.

I wanted to run by  you what I am planning on doing for starter and time and see what you think.

Starter 1.5
Time 62(Thursday night to Sunday noon)   hours for party and 38(saturday)  for day before to try some pies. I will warm up a tray or two around 30 hours

Using your model looks like this should work. Am I missing something?
I figured I can always warm up the balls in my house running around 74 if need be so a few hours on the longer side is wise.

Offline JD

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #61 on: January 17, 2013, 08:46:15 AM »
If your refrigerator is 45F, you have another problem - that's dangerously too warm for a fridge - it should be 38F max, and ideal is closer to 36F. If it's actually 38F, the model would have predicted 13.7%, at 36F, 15.6%. My guess is that you should have used somewhere 62% and 82% more starter than you did (given 11 hours at 65F). For 8.5 hours at 65F, you would have needed more than 2X what you used. Of course all of these figures come from the red zone, but it sounds like the might not be too far off?

CL

First, thank you for bringing the fridge temp to my attention. Clearly I had no idea 45 was too high and I adjusted the temp this morning.

A longgg Second:

I took multiple temperature readings thoughout my experiment and it was in fact 45* in the fridge, and the middle of the dough ball. I did not guess at that number.

So I used your auto-calculating tool to help me figure out what my warm temp time would be (see attached picture). The only thing that is not a variable in the tool is the warm temp time. My starter percent would remain 8.5% since I had already made the dough. Also my house stays at a cozy 65* in the winter so that will not change. After 108 hours @ 45*, the only thing I can adjust to "complete" my fermentation is the warm temp TIME. Please review the spreadsheet and let me know if I'm using your tool correctly.


If my calculations are correct, I stand by my original statement that little to no fermentation had occurred at 45* & 8.5% starter. I checked my second doughball this morning (which is now on day 5.5 at 45*) and it too shows little to no signs of fermentation.

I strongly believe that if you are only using a starter, the fridge will almost completely arrest yeast fermentation at these low percentages. If this is true, this would be a huge benefit as far as planning is concerned, where I could make a doughball 2 weeks in advance and not worry about degradation of the doughball. However, the bacterial processes are not affected in the same way so you may reach a point of no return where the dough is overly sour.

There was a recent post by EV where a 2 week old Lehmann style dough was made, and it looked beautiful. Furthermore, he used IDY which in my opinion has a greater resistance to cold than my Ischia starter. If EV can do 2 weeks with an IDY, I bet I can do at least 3 weeks using a starter.

It is not my intention to push the boundaries in a glutenboy fashion, but simply to see if you could be a little more flexible in your dough making schedule if cold "storage" is a viable option.

Open to all opinions, however I'm going to use my second doughball to carry out this experiment. I think I'll start with 2 weeks and see how that goes (which means I'll make the dough around Friday the 25th of January).

If you prefer I start my own thread, please let me know.

JD
« Last Edit: January 17, 2013, 10:27:21 AM by motofrk »

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #62 on: January 17, 2013, 09:13:46 AM »
Craig. I'm going to test out a sponge/bulk ferment/ball work flow this weekend. my ggarage is a cool and pretty consistent 59-62 degrees all day.

I wanted to run by  you what I am planning on doing for starter and time and see what you think.

Starter 1.5
Time 62(Thursday night to Sunday noon)   hours for party and 38(saturday)  for day before to try some pies. I will warm up a tray or two around 30 hours

Using your model looks like this should work. Am I missing something?
I figured I can always warm up the balls in my house running around 74 if need be so a few hours on the longer side is wise.

Sunday looks about right. I'm not exactly sure what you are saying about Saturday. Are you going to start warming after 30 or 38 hours at 59-62F?

You got balls going blind like this for a party. I'd start paying close attention to it at least 8 hours before the party. You should know by then if it is going to need to be warmed. My guess is warming for less than 6 hours or so at 74F will have little immediate effect.

CL
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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #63 on: January 17, 2013, 11:58:27 AM »
So I used your auto-calculating tool to help me figure out what my warm temp time would be (see attached picture). The only thing that is not a variable in the tool is the warm temp time. My starter percent would remain 8.5% since I had already made the dough. Also my house stays at a cozy 65* in the winter so that will not change. After 108 hours @ 45*, the only thing I can adjust to "complete" my fermentation is the warm temp TIME. Please review the spreadsheet and let me know if I'm using your tool correctly.

Yes, it looks like you did the mechanics correctly.

Quote
If my calculations are correct, I stand by my original statement that little to no fermentation had occurred at 45* & 8.5% starter. I checked my second doughball this morning (which is now on day 5.5 at 45*) and it too shows little to no signs of fermentation.

I strongly believe that if you are only using a starter, the fridge will almost completely arrest yeast fermentation at these low percentages.

You may be right, and it wouldnít surprise me if you were. Notwithstanding, it thought it was clear in my original post that the red-zone data was for discussion purposes only and not to be trusted for pizzamaking. I just added some conditional formatting to the spreadsheet to point it out there as well.

Quote
If this is true, this would be a huge benefit as far as planning is concerned, where I could make a doughball 2 weeks in advance and not worry about degradation of the doughball.


There are limits; enzymatic activity also slows, but it does not stop, and sooner or later the proteolytic enzymes (and acids) will degrade the gluten matrix to the point the dough is unusable. I donít think this will take two weeks.

Quote
However, the bacterial processes are not affected in the same way so you may reach a point of no return where the dough is overly sour.

Bacterial processes are also affected by temperature. The LAB growth rate slows similarly with yeast at low temps.  The lactic-acetic acid mix swings towards the more sour tasting acetic as the bacteria get colder, but the total acid production slows dramatically. I tend to doubt that sourness is going to be the limiting factor. I think the enzymes and acids will degrade your dough first.

Quote
There was a recent post by EV where a 2 week old Lehmann style dough was made, and it looked beautiful. Furthermore, he used IDY which in my opinion has a greater resistance to cold than my Ischia starter. If EV can do 2 weeks with an IDY, I bet I can do at least 3 weeks using a starter.

Iíll take that bet. I donít think a SD can go that long without turning into a pile of gloop. I know 3 weeks can be done with bakerís yeast, Tom (Tscarborough) uses 20-21 day dough fairly regularly, however when using bakerís yeast, you have much less in the way of acids and enzymes to contend with.

Quote
It is not my intention to push the boundaries in a glutenboy fashion, but simply to see if you could be a little more flexible in your dough making schedule if cold "storage" is a viable option.

Open to all opinions, however I'm going to use my second doughball to carry out this experiment. I think I'll start with 2 weeks and see how that goes (which means I'll make the dough around Friday the 25th of January).

In my experience, cold (refrigerated) fermentation with SD has a meaningful deleterious effect on texture and browning even after only a few days. I'm curious to see your results. Even if it works mechanically, I think you will pay a price in flavor which I've found to be optimized aroud 65F.

Quote
If you prefer I start my own thread, please let me know.
Iím curious to see your results. You are welcome to post here or start a new thread if you prefer. If you get some good and useful results, it probably deserves a new thread.

In an earlier post, you commented:

Quote
I have a suspicion that most of the visible bubbles are actually from bacterial by-products instead of yeast, and it wasn't until the dough was moved to the 65* temperature that the yeast actually started fermenting.

On what do you base that suspicion? CO2 is always an indicator of carbohydrate metabolism in yeast, but not necessarily so with LAB.

CL
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Offline JD

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #64 on: January 17, 2013, 12:41:08 PM »

You may be right, and it wouldnít surprise me if you were. Notwithstanding, it thought it was clear in my original post that the red-zone data was for discussion purposes only and not to be trusted for pizzamaking. I just added some conditional formatting to the spreadsheet to point it out there as well.

It was 100% clear that a red zone number was more of an unknown. I was hoping to provide some valuable feedback so you can eliminate some of that red area.


There are limits; enzymatic activity also slows, but it does not stop, and sooner or later the proteolytic enzymes (and acids) will degrade the gluten matrix to the point the dough is unusable. I donít think this will take two weeks.

I suppose I was thinking on a much less scientific level than required. This is well beyond my knowledge, thanks for sharing.


In my experience, cold (refrigerated) fermentation with SD has a meaningful deleterious effect on texture and browning even after only a few days. I'm curious to see your results. Even if it works mechanically, I think you will pay a price in flavor which I've found to be optimized aroud 65F.
Iím curious to see your results. You are welcome to post here or start a new thread if you prefer. If you get some good and useful results, it probably deserves a new thread.

I'll do a 2 week cold ferment and post my results in this thread. If it warrants further investigation I'll start a new thread where hopefully people with more knowledge on the scientific background will want to help.

Further, at 8.5% and 65*, my New Years Eve pizza was done in 24 hours (as per your chart as well as actual results). I dont think it was enough time for LAB effect to add enough flavor, so just for clarity you do a much lower % at 65 for a longer ferment, correct? You mentioned this to me a while back and I never had the opportunity to try it because of the heat, but now that winter is upon me my entire house is a 65* proofing box.


On what do you base that suspicion? CO2 is always an indicator of carbohydrate metabolism in yeast, but not necessarily so with LAB.

Just a hunch since my dough was significantly under-fermented after the 45* cold stage. The dough had great flavor (due to LAB) so I'm assuming a by-product of LAB is a small amount of CO2, but again, just an assumption. It very well could have been a small amount of yeast fermentation.


Thanks for the reply & insite


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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #65 on: January 17, 2013, 01:22:06 PM »
Quote
just for clarity you do a much lower % at 65 for a longer ferment, correct?

Yes, 1.3-1.5% for 48 hours. It usually ends up being between 61 anf 64F for about 40 hours and then 77F for the last 8 or so.

CL
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Offline JD

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #66 on: January 17, 2013, 01:45:39 PM »

Just a hunch since my dough was significantly under-fermented after the 45* cold stage. The dough had great flavor (due to LAB) so I'm assuming a by-product of LAB is a small amount of CO2, but again, just an assumption. It very well could have been a small amount of yeast fermentation.

Just did a quick google search to see if there was and truth behind my assumption, and found this along with an article that goes way above my understanding of LAB:

"Starting from glucose, homofermentative LAB
mainly produce lactic acid through glycolysis (homolactic
fermentation) while heterofermentative LAB produce,
besides lactic acid, CO2, acetic acid and/or ethanol
"

Full 20 page .pdf found here: http://www.microsour.com/pdf/7-lactobascilli-and-sourdough-fermentation.pdf

I'm sure someone here is familiar with it


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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #67 on: January 17, 2013, 04:17:30 PM »
Just did a quick google search to see if there was and truth behind my assumption, and found this along with an article that goes way above my understanding of LAB:

"Starting from glucose, homofermentative LAB
mainly produce lactic acid through glycolysis (homolactic
fermentation) while heterofermentative LAB produce,
besides lactic acid, CO2, acetic acid and/or ethanol
"

Full 20 page .pdf found here: http://www.microsour.com/pdf/7-lactobascilli-and-sourdough-fermentation.pdf

I'm sure someone here is familiar with it


Yes, Iím familiar with article, and I donít think that quote says anything to support your assumption. I didnít say heterofermentative LAB donít produce CO2. Rather the model takes into account that they do. That citation is pretty much what I just told you: "CO2 is always an indicator of carbohydrate metabolism in yeast, but not necessarily so with LAB." Thatís all it says.

The bottom line is that you canít look at a bubble in the dough and say with any level of confidence that is was made by yeast or LAB (or both).
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Offline JD

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #68 on: January 17, 2013, 05:35:01 PM »

The bottom line is that you canít look at a bubble in the dough and say with any level of confidence that is was made by yeast or LAB (or both).


Yes I agree.

Maybe it's coming across differently in text format, but I'm not arguing against anything you are suggesting. I'm thirsty for knowledge, which is why we're all here in the first place isn't it?

Offline Omidz

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #69 on: January 17, 2013, 09:46:34 PM »
Sunday looks about right. I'm not exactly sure what you are saying about Saturday. Are you going to start warming after 30 or 38 hours at 59-62F?

You got balls going blind like this for a party. I'd start paying close attention to it at least 8 hours before the party. You should know by then if it is going to need to be warmed. My guess is warming for less than 6 hours or so at 74F will have little immediate effect.

CL



Ok I hope I did the quote function correct here Craig. What I meant about saturday is I am going to warm a tray or two on that day so I can get two days
of cooking out of my weekend. Imy sounds like you are saying if things are looking pretty raw then I should warn up 8 hours before the party cause a few hours with this process won't do much correct?

Offline JD

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #70 on: January 25, 2013, 09:00:19 PM »
As promised, I am posting the results of my 2 week fridge ferment.

Quick recap: I did a 2 week cold ferment in the fridge + 24 hour warm rise at 65* to find out how much the dough actually ferments in the fridge. Long story short, the dough turned out to be fairly weak as Craig suggested would happen. However fermentation was surprisingly very much in line with a dough that came right out of the mixer. In other words, it is my opinion that the dough was not over-fermented which may be suggested by my pictures below. In addition, it was the most flavorful & perfectly colored crust I've personally created.

The down side of the long ferment is that there were a few holes that needed patching when opening the skin since elasticity diminished. After I loaded the toppings, a shake of the peel kept opening new holes. I was actually able to save the pizza, but it was too fragile to be worth the extra fridge time.

So in summary, I believe you can make a dough with a starter, throw it in the fridge and use it within (x) amount of days and disregard any "fermentation" time while in the fridge. Max time in the fridge would still need to be determined, but I would imagine it would align with Glutenboy's results of 10+ days. Me personally, I'm going to try 7 next to see if I get some elasticity back.


If at the very least, I can make some dough on Sunday and use it at my discretion during the week with positive results, I'm a happy guy.

JD

Offline dineomite

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #71 on: January 31, 2013, 02:51:44 PM »
Craig,

   I'm on vacation and look forward to come back (even though it'll be fifty degree difference), so I can start playing around with this info. Very cool. Thanks. ;D

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #72 on: January 31, 2013, 03:25:30 PM »
Craig,

   I'm on vacation and look forward to come back (even though it'll be fifty degree difference), so I can start playing around with this info. Very cool. Thanks. ;D

You're welcome. I look forward to seeing the results.
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Offline Everlast

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #73 on: February 01, 2013, 01:06:49 PM »
Craig, thanks for posting this. Your generosity in sharing information continually blows me away. Per the Multiple Stage Starter Prediction Model, if you were to bulk ferment at 65F for 24 hours, then ball and ferment for another 24 hours at 65F, then proof for 3 hours at 75F, the model calls for 0.6% starter. Don't you usually recommend 1.3% for this fermentation schedule? Am I overlooking something here?

Damian

Offline iblive

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #74 on: February 01, 2013, 05:19:24 PM »
Wow.... I've been WAY under thinking the sourdough pizza I've been making. I've put absolutely no science into it and it turns out pretty darn good.... based off how fast it disappears.