If your refrigerator is 45F, you have another problem - that's dangerously too warm for a fridge - it should be 38F max, and ideal is closer to 36F. If it's actually 38F, the model would have predicted 13.7%, at 36F, 15.6%. My guess is that you should have used somewhere 62% and 82% more starter than you did (given 11 hours at 65F). For 8.5 hours at 65F, you would have needed more than 2X what you used. Of course all of these figures come from the red zone, but it sounds like the might not be too far off?
First, thank you for bringing the fridge temp to my attention. Clearly I had no idea 45 was too high and I adjusted the temp this morning.
A longgg Second:
I took multiple temperature readings thoughout my experiment and it was in fact 45* in the fridge, and the middle of the dough ball. I did not guess at that number.
So I used your auto-calculating tool to help me figure out what my warm temp time would be (see attached picture). The only thing that is not a variable in the tool is the warm temp time. My starter percent would remain 8.5% since I had already made the dough. Also my house stays at a cozy 65* in the winter so that will not change. After 108 hours @ 45*, the only thing I can adjust to "complete" my fermentation is the warm temp TIME. Please review the spreadsheet and let me know if I'm using your tool correctly.
If my calculations are correct, I stand by my original statement that little to no fermentation had occurred at 45* & 8.5% starter. I checked my second doughball this morning (which is now on day 5.5 at 45*) and it too shows little to no signs of fermentation.
I strongly believe that if you are only using a starter, the fridge will almost completely arrest yeast fermentation at these low percentages. If this is true, this would be a huge benefit as far as planning is concerned, where I could make a doughball 2 weeks in advance and not worry about degradation of the doughball. However, the bacterial processes are not affected in the same way so you may reach a point of no return where the dough is overly sour.
There was a recent post by EV where a 2 week old Lehmann style dough was made, and it looked beautiful. Furthermore, he used IDY which in my opinion has a greater resistance to cold than my Ischia starter. If EV can do 2 weeks with an IDY, I bet I can do at least 3 weeks using a starter.
It is not my intention to push the boundaries in a glutenboy fashion, but simply to see if you could be a little more flexible in your dough making schedule if cold "storage" is a viable option.
Open to all opinions, however I'm going to use my second doughball to carry out this experiment. I think I'll start with 2 weeks and see how that goes (which means I'll make the dough around Friday the 25th of January).
If you prefer I start my own thread, please let me know.