Author Topic: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model  (Read 38412 times)

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Offline mitchjg

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #125 on: November 07, 2013, 09:19:48 AM »
Ischia at 45 hours not active enough, set at 70 for two hours pics shows ok activity but needed dinner. Baked crust very tender, but not enough oven spring - will try again soon

I am wondering if I may be systematically under fermenting a bit.  This dough looks pretty close (to me) to the picture of a dough "about ready" and not as developed as the "the most rise I want."  I usually bake when it looks "about ready."  Should I be rising more (as in "the most rise" or almost there)?

http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,20477.msg202048.html#msg202048

thanks,
Mitch
Mitch


Offline TXCraig1

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #126 on: November 07, 2013, 09:28:54 AM »
I am wondering if I may be systematically under fermenting a bit.  This dough looks pretty close (to me) to the picture of a dough "about ready" and not as developed as the "the most rise I want."  I usually bake when it looks "about ready."  Should I be rising more (as in "the most rise" or almost there)?

http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,20477.msg202048.html#msg202048

thanks,
Mitch

I think it's personal preference. I've had some great pies that are way more risen than what I do. I almost never let my do go to "the most rise I want." I'm generally about in the middle between them.
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Offline mitchjg

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #127 on: November 07, 2013, 09:32:56 AM »
Thanks Craig, that helps.  I will push things a bit further next time I bake and check it out. - M
Mitch

Offline communist

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #128 on: November 07, 2013, 10:14:43 AM »
The chart calls for 49 hours. Another 2 hours at 70, and you might have been pretty close to ideal and right at 49 hours. This why I always say to start watching it at least 8 hours before you need the dough so you can adjust the temperature up or down in those last 8 hours to have it right where you want it, when you want it.
Good point.  Unfortunately I was at work and was unable to watch the dough as closely as I would have liked.   Mark

Offline Antonella

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #129 on: December 02, 2013, 03:56:59 PM »
Hi craig,

am pretty new here at this Forum ...

easy and simple question for you :)

The calculated predicted starter in % you have to take off the amount of flour or water you use ?

e.g. you come up with 10% required for your selected time/temperature based on 1 kg of flour... you need 100gr of starter, right ?

In advance, thanks craig for the beginner answer :)


Offline TXCraig1

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #130 on: December 02, 2013, 04:13:46 PM »
Hi craig,

am pretty new here at this Forum ...

easy and simple question for you :)

The calculated predicted starter in % you have to take off the amount of flour or water you use ?

e.g. you come up with 10% required for your selected time/temperature based on 1 kg of flour... you need 100gr of starter, right ?

In advance, thanks craig for the beginner answer :)

Yes, it is calculated as a % of the formula flour.
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Offline Antonella

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #131 on: December 04, 2013, 05:25:51 AM »
Thz Craig ,

Will show you mine results ;)


Ciao


Offline stevehollx

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #132 on: December 15, 2013, 08:30:33 PM »
I stumbled upon a sourdough calculator for bread tonight.  I figured this would be a good place to share it, in case there is reusable collateral there:
http://www.wraithnj.com/breadpics/rise_time_table/bread_model_bwraith.htm

Offline Qarl

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #133 on: January 05, 2014, 10:01:05 AM »
Just started 30-32 hour dough at 62 degrees using 10% hydration.  will post results tomorrow night.


Online Pete-zza

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #134 on: January 05, 2014, 11:08:05 AM »
Just started 30-32 hour dough at 62 degrees using 10% hydration.  will post results tomorrow night.
Karl,

Is there an error with the hydration number or is that the amount of starter?

Peter

Offline Qarl

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #135 on: January 05, 2014, 12:58:05 PM »
Ummm.  % starter.  LOL

Offline Serpentelli

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #136 on: January 05, 2014, 09:01:20 PM »
Mitch (mitchjg) asked me a question about using the data in the model to calculate the effects of multiple time/temp combinations on the same dough. Looking at the model, it occured to me that you can easily do just that with the model exactly as it is. I added a few more columns (starter%) to the chart so there is more data to work with (less extrapolation needed). I also stripped off the red zones. The data itself and model are unchanged. You could use this same technique with the chart on the first page of this thread. The charts below are optimized to make it even easier.


Example 1
Say you made a batch of dough w/1.5% starter that normally takes 48 hours at 64F to be ready. Being that it is winter and cooler in the house that normal, your fermentation set up (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,18509.msg179991.html#msg179991) is running cooler than normal - 60F rather than 64F. How could you adjust your workflow to have the dough ready on time? Perhaps you could move it to the oven with the light on which is holding at about 80F, but for how long? This is the problem I faced over the past couple days.

We know from the model that 1.5% starter @ 60F should take ~69hours (1 below). I fermented the bulk for 24 hours at 60F. I then balled it and put it back into the box at 60F for another 12 hours – a total of 36 hours at 60F. According to the model, I should need another 33 at 60F (2), but the model tells us a whole lot more than that. Every data point up and down that column represents a time/temperature combination that will finish the dough. All you have to do is slide down to 80F, and you see that dough will be ready in 9 hours at 80F.

I hadn’t thought about doing this when I made my dough Thursday night – nor on Saturday morning when I moved it to the oven with the light on. It turns out however, that my results were spot-on what the model would have predicted.

IMPORTANT: Keep in mind that dough doesn’t instantly go from 60F to 80F. Actually, my oven with the light on is closer to 85F, but the average dough temp over the 9 hours was probably around 80F – just a gut feel adjustment. You might need to make adjustments recognizing this sort of thing. The shorter the window of time at a temperature, the more important the adjustment becomes as the dough temperature transition time becomes a much larger portion of the total time.


I recently used this creative method for using Craig's model for multiple fermentation temps. I was flabbergasted that it worked! Perfectly!!

And it reminded me how lucky we are to have guys like TxCraig --- and so many other brilliant members --- on this forum. Thanks again Craig!

John K
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Offline TXCraig1

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #137 on: January 06, 2014, 08:51:08 AM »
Happy to hear the good results John.

CL
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Offline Qarl

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #138 on: January 06, 2014, 06:36:35 PM »
Camaboldi sourdough starter

60% hydration
2% salt
Caputo 00
10% starter

12 hours at 62 degrees bulk.  Recall
18 hours at 62 degrees balled

Looks about just right!


Offline Qarl

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #139 on: January 06, 2014, 07:27:42 PM »
Very happy with the results

Offline TXCraig1

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #140 on: January 06, 2014, 09:21:02 PM »
Looks great.
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Offline Serpentelli

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #141 on: January 07, 2014, 12:01:43 PM »
Ditto Karl,

Great looking dough both pre- and post-bake!

John K
I'm not wearing hockey pads!


Offline anverc

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #142 on: February 24, 2014, 03:09:02 PM »
I made a web-app timer utility using Craig's models.  I moved my comment about it to a new thread: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=30444
« Last Edit: February 25, 2014, 02:25:39 PM by anverc »
i'm making a pizza utility app.  check it out and give suggestions! http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=30444.0

Offline Chicago Bob

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #143 on: February 25, 2014, 01:29:29 AM »
I started working on a smartphone accessable web-app using Craig's data and some reversing of the math used in the googledocs spreadsheet.

i got to the point where I have something that you can use to time your dough proofing after you've made it.  After getting this far i'm wondering if it isn't actually very useful and what might make it more useable - perhaps i can take Craig's %starter prediction and add it as a separate mode on top of this.


Here's the web-app:

http://ssqpm.makebendrink.com/

try it out on your computers and smart phones (i've tested with win7-chrome and ios-safari).  it's basically an eggtimer that does all the sourdough prediction lookups for you.  I think this is probably only useful in the cases that Craig lays out, where your proofer isn't running at the same temp that you are used to.  Or if you're like me and you don't plan ahead very well, at least you can now track what you're doing :D

this saves the data on your device.  If we end up making it useful enough I can have it back up to the cloud... and maybe we can get it added to this site. 


how to use it:
- when you first go to the site (or after you reset your data) it will ask you what starter percent you are using.
- next it will ask you to add a time stamp and temperature.  If you just mixed your dough, just click the "NOW" button, modify your temp and click Add
- you can add new timestamps in the future by clicking the Add Timestamp button
- you can modify old timestamps by clicking on them
- as an added bonus, since i'm supporting Celcius, you can mix and match your temperature readings if you want to.  it will save the last C/F selection you've made

- when you re-visit the site, it should keep your data around (uses html5 client data storage, so it requires your browser to support html5)
 - it also saves the last temp you used, in-case you never switch the temperature up much you won't have to modify that often.
Very clever/neat.  8)
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Offline Tampa

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #144 on: February 25, 2014, 08:48:46 AM »
Nicely done anverc!  Thanks for sharing this and giving a nod to Craig on the screen.
Dave

Offline anverc

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #145 on: February 25, 2014, 09:39:40 AM »
Nicely done anverc!  Thanks for sharing this and giving a nod to Craig on the screen.
Dave

thanks! without all his research/data/math i wouldn't have been able to make this.  I don't understand the math at all, i'm just blindly using it (even to the extent that some of my variable names make no sense).
« Last Edit: February 25, 2014, 02:27:48 PM by anverc »
i'm making a pizza utility app.  check it out and give suggestions! http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=30444.0

Online Pete-zza

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #146 on: February 25, 2014, 02:18:12 PM »
should i move this to a new thread? i don't want to steal Craig's thread, it's kinda burried here, and i'd like to have somewhere where people can post ideas to build this thing up.
anverc,

I think that would be a good idea. Rather than try to carve out pieces of this thread, you might just start a new thread even if some repetition of old material is needed.

Peter

Offline Adrian

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #147 on: March 28, 2014, 01:24:12 AM »
Hi TXCraig1,

you did an amazing job! In bread making, there are very little breads that are directly (0 step) built. But for pizza it really seems to be the way to go. On the other hand, adding 20% or more of a recently refreshed starter can already be seen as 1 step built.

From my experience, the relation between your numbers seems to be very accurate, I'm amazed. For times under 12 hours I think I just have to apply a constant factor of 0.8 when having a a very active starter. I'm not sure if this holds for longer times (where I don't have much experience). When reviving old starters, it seems to be non linear (spores waking up?); when comparing just one feeding cycle of a recently "captured" starter to an heavily used one, it seems more linear.
This calls for tests. (And me trying to understand the exact model behind you calculation).


I've seen the author where parts of your model is based on his research also is co-author of the ("the") German compendium about sourdough :)
I know, for pizza making it is not an issue, but it'd be great to have the hydration modelled in as well for bread making. If I just had more time ;)

>>> 1/6/13 Here is a link to a spreadsheet that automates the calculation of starter% given multiple fermentation stages: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0 more details here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,22649.msg230734.html#msg230734

One thing I've noticed: When "calculating" centigrade, G5 has a fixed number. I think it should be:
=(D5-32)*5/9

Thanks a lot for you effort generating this table and making it public!
Adrian

Offline TXCraig1

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #148 on: March 29, 2014, 03:05:26 AM »
I fixed the spreadsheet formula. Thanks for pointing it out.

I hope you find it helpful. It's not intended to be the be-all-end-all, but rather to give people a good place to start from which can be quite a daunting challenge for anyone departing from a recipe the first few times. Same with the bakers yeast model here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg285982#msg285982

CL
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Offline phokingood

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Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
« Reply #149 on: May 06, 2014, 02:48:09 PM »
Thanks for all of the amazing information in this thread.  I've been cooking Neapolitan Style pizzas for the last three years and this is my first attempt at using the culture.  I was getting a decent product before but am excited to see the results.

Much thanks to TXCraig1!