Author Topic: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results  (Read 14548 times)

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Offline juniorballoon

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #120 on: April 17, 2014, 12:01:32 PM »
After reading through the thread it doesn't appear that many have used the chart for cold fermentation. In looking over my notes and checking out the original chart and comparing it to the latest their is quite a change in the amount of ADY used at my usual 39 degrees/96 hour cold ferment. The original chart has it at 0.084 and the updated has it at 0.042. I went with the 0.042 last night for pizza on Sunday. I'll report back on the results.

jb


Offline TXCraig1

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #121 on: April 18, 2014, 12:17:14 AM »
Thanks JB. I've looked at literally 100+ cold fermentation data points, and to say that they are all over the map would be an understatement. The one (and only) benefit of cold fermentation is the flexibility it allows with respect to timing. This model is only designed to provide a starting point. Maybe you can get away with less than indicated in the sub-40F zone, however you can certainly push things a lot longer.
Pizza is not bread.

Offline juniorballoon

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #122 on: April 24, 2014, 07:27:51 PM »
The pizza turned out great. My only complaint is a lack of rise in the dough. And I'm not sure it's even a valid complaint as it tasted great and was pretty easy to work with. After mixing and kneading I balled 5 300 gram balls and put them in the fridge. By day 3 there was a tiny bit of activity evident from the formation of bubbles visible on the bottom of the plastic containers. To the touch the dough felt heavy. I let it go another day and 6 hours before cooking, took them out to sit at room temp. Normally I would have done 4 hours, but with so little activity it made me nervous, I had guests arriving and wanted them to be ready. When it was time to make pizza they had risen a bit more, maybe double from when I put them in the fridge 4 days ago. When I took them out of the plastic bowls the dough was still kind of heavy feeling, but they opened easily and I had little trouble making 12 to 14 inch pies.. But the feel of the dough was not as light and silky as I have seen it in the past.

Next time? I think I could take them out 10 hours before cooking or increase the yeast by half again. In this batch I had used 928 grams of flour and 1.5 grams of ADY yeast. I think I'll try 2.25 grams next time.

jb

Offline CDNpielover

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #123 on: April 27, 2014, 10:22:03 AM »
I assume this is a regression model - do you mind sharing the model (i..e. the equation), number of observations, and r2? For me, those would be necessary to judge if these results should or shouldnot be used.

Offline TXCraig1

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #124 on: April 27, 2014, 04:27:06 PM »
I assume this is a regression model - do you mind sharing the model (i..e. the equation), number of observations, and r2? For me, those would be necessary to judge if these results should or shouldnot be used.

Do tell what is the minimum r^2 that would be required for you to deem the model worthy.  Are you sure you donít want to see F and t-stats as well?

BTW, if you will take the time to read just five posts into the thread, you will get an idea how it works.
Pizza is not bread.

Offline jsaras

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #125 on: April 27, 2014, 04:44:04 PM »
I nominate Craig for the Nobel Pizza Prize!
Things have never been more like today than they are right now.

Offline pythonic

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Craig,

Great chart.  Is the starting temp for dough accounted for?  Maybe I missed it somewhere?

Nate
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Offline pythonic

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0.04% IDY at 65F for 13 hours.  Chart says 23 hours.  This dough looks ready right?  Smells a little like alcohol.  Dough was 75F when balled.  This is why it's done early right?

Nate
« Last Edit: May 02, 2014, 12:43:47 PM by pythonic »
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Offline MightyPizzaOven

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I have not contributed to this post but I refer to the chart whenever I prepare dough. Awesome tool..
Bert,

Offline mitchjg

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0.4% IDY at 65F for 13 hours.  Chart says 23 hours.  This dough looks ready right?  Smells a little like alcohol.  Dough was 75F when balled.  This is why it's done early right?

Nate

0.04%, not 0.4%  Unless you have a typo, you used around 10X the amount of yeast required.

- Mitch


Offline pythonic

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0.04%, not 0.4%  Unless you have a typo, you used around 10X the amount of yeast required.

- Mitch

Yes I meant .04%.
If you can dodge a wrench you can dodge a ball.

Offline TXCraig1

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Craig,

Great chart.  Is the starting temp for dough accounted for?  Maybe I missed it somewhere?

Nate

No, there are several variables this doesn't take into account. It's simply meant to help you find a starting point to work from. Generally, it will get you pretty close then tweak from there.
Pizza is not bread.

Offline juniorballoon

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Ran another batch of 5 pizzas this weekend. 52 hour cold ferment, chart said .084. Went with .099. Worked out to be almost a gram in a 928 grams of flour. Very little action in the cold. Took them out early in the day as I wasn't sure how they would react. One lid popped off after 3 hours. We made pizza when they'd been at room temp for ten hours. They had doubled in size and were just starting to get large bubbles of fermentation. I hadn't planned on it being ten hours, but parties can be unpredictable. Dough was fantastic. Easy to work, cooked up with a nice rim and very tasty. Best yet. Unlike the last batch that was underactive, these were just right. I would rather have used them between 4 and 6 hours at room temp, but it didn't seem to hurt them at all. For my preferences the chart is a bit light on ADY at the lower temps, but as you've said this is a starting point.

Thanks,
jb   

Offline shuboyje

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I've been using this to make my dough for my coal oven lately, and I am more then impressed.  I have been doing 48 hours room temperature ferments, and measure the yeast with my jewelers scale.  The dough has been perfect every time, complete with those little black dots the italians covet so much, which I have never achieved before this chat. 

Once again my hats off to Craig!
-Jeff

Offline TXCraig1

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Once again my hats off to Craig!

Thanks Jeff. Glad to hear it's working for you.
Pizza is not bread.

Offline quixoteQ

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Craig,

Thanks, as always, for all your help.

Ran another batch of 5 pizzas this weekend. 52 hour cold ferment, chart said .084. Went with .099. Worked out to be almost a gram in a 928 grams of flour. Very little action in the cold. Took them out early in the day as I wasn't sure how they would react. One lid popped off after 3 hours. We made pizza when they'd been at room temp for ten hours. They had doubled in size and were just starting to get large bubbles of fermentation. I hadn't planned on it being ten hours, but parties can be unpredictable. Dough was fantastic. Easy to work, cooked up with a nice rim and very tasty. Best yet. Unlike the last batch that was underactive, these were just right. I would rather have used them between 4 and 6 hours at room temp, but it didn't seem to hurt them at all. For my preferences the chart is a bit light on ADY at the lower temps, but as you've said this is a starting point.

Thanks,
jb

JB,

I'm curious about the actual ferment time.  If I understand your post correctly, you went with 52hrs cold ferment (at about 40*F), and then an additional ten hours at room temperature for a total of 62 hours?

Also--and I apologize if you've posted your workflow here before--what temperature was the water when mixing the dough and dough temperature before putting it in the fridge?  Much thanks!
Josh

Offline juniorballoon

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QuixoteQ,

You are correct about the total ferment time. I have not posted my work flow and I don't know the precise temp of the water nor the dough when it goes into the fridge. I can only give you a guestimate on both. Water temp is 90-100 to start. I do it by feel on my hand from the tap. I use a Kitchen Aid mixer with a dough hook. After weighing I add the water, yeast, sugar and oil to the mixing bowl. I let that sit for about 10 minutes. I weigh the flour in a separate bowl which is a mix of Bread flour (usually KA but this last time it was Redmill) and semolina, 75/25%, add the salt and stir a bit by hand. I turn the mixer on two and add the flour. I let that mix for a few minutes until it's all incorporated and then let it autolyse for 15 minutes. I then mix on two for about 4 -5 minutes or until the dough starts to look satiny. I do a bit of hand kneading, portion, ball and put each one into a lightly greased Tupperware and into the fridge. I would be surprised if the temp of the dough going into the fridge was much more than room temp.

Hope this is what you were looking for.

jb

Offline quixoteQ

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QuixoteQ,

You are correct about the total ferment time. I have not posted my work flow and I don't know the precise temp of the water nor the dough when it goes into the fridge. I can only give you a guestimate on both. Water temp is 90-100 to start. I do it by feel on my hand from the tap. I use a Kitchen Aid mixer with a dough hook. After weighing I add the water, yeast, sugar and oil to the mixing bowl. I let that sit for about 10 minutes. I weigh the flour in a separate bowl which is a mix of Bread flour (usually KA but this last time it was Redmill) and semolina, 75/25%, add the salt and stir a bit by hand. I turn the mixer on two and add the flour. I let that mix for a few minutes until it's all incorporated and then let it autolyse for 15 minutes. I then mix on two for about 4 -5 minutes or until the dough starts to look satiny. I do a bit of hand kneading, portion, ball and put each one into a lightly greased Tupperware and into the fridge. I would be surprised if the temp of the dough going into the fridge was much more than room temp.

Hope this is what you were looking for.

jb

Thanks for your response.  I've been making Scott's KABF 48hr cold ferment 2x a week this last month, which includes a 2-3 hr room temp rest between the cold ferment and bake.  Craig's predictive numbers for 39-40*F seemed somewhat low relative to what I've experienced with Scott's formula.  However, by the end of a 48hr cold ferment with that formula the dough is certainly ready . . . Not blown out but quite active.

I was considering an attempt to use Craig's awesome work to extend the cold ferment an additional day; I'm curious about how that would affect the flavor/texture.  I'd love to see more people respond with their findings  :chef:
Josh

Offline weemis

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Haven't been around in a while. Just caught a glimpse of this post. Craig, you are blowing my mind. If this was around a few years ago, it would have saved me so much trial and error time! I, too, cast my vote for Nobel TXCraig!

Thank you for this awesome information. This is indeed a game changer.
Nick Gore - just a dough eyed wanderer

Offline Tampa

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  ^^^
Dave