Pizza Making Forum

Pizza Making => Starters/Sponges => Topic started by: TXCraig1 on January 01, 2013, 01:53:26 PM

Title: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 01, 2013, 01:53:26 PM
>>> 1/3/13 NOTE: The chart below has been revised to include the effects of the Lactic Acid Bacteria in the SD culture <<<
I have also slightly adjusted the color zones. The changes to the data in the original green zone were negligable. I will post a recap of the changes down the thread.

>>> 1/6/13 I added a section here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,22649.msg230690.html#msg230690 that shows you how to use the tables to calculate the starter quantities and fermentation times with multiple fermentation temperatures.

>>> 1/6/13 Here is a link to a spreadsheet that automates the calculation of starter% given multiple fermentation stages: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0 more details here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,22649.msg230734.html#msg230734

This model should help identify a starting point for starter quantity and/or fermentation time in a new sourdough-leavened dough. Itís a generalized model, so as you would expect, changes in culture, hydration, salinity, dough mass, etc. will likely affect the fermentation time; therefore experimentation will be necessary to fine tune a specific dough formula. Notwithstanding, the model shows good predictive ability with typical doughs.

The model was built around real-world 75F data. This is a typical temperature coming out of the mixer, and I had a wide range of data at this point. I then used the temperature vs. growth model for C. milleri (a typical yeast found in sourdough cultures) from Gšnzle et al. (1998) http://aem.asm.org/content/64/7/2616.full.pdf  to expand my model across the viable temperature spectrum.

The chart below predicts total fermentation time in hours at specific starter quantity and temperature combinations. I included all the predicted data because I thought it was interesting. I donít however believe it is all equally reliable. For example, the model assumes 100% of the fermentation takes place at the specified temperature, and the farther away from 75F you get, the longer it takes the dough to get to that temperature thus skewing the results (not to mention the farther the model must extrapolate from the original regression). Also, as fermentation times become very extended and once you go much past 40% starter, I think there is significant risk of the proteolytic enzymes catastrophically denaturing the gluten matrix in the dough. I color-coded the chart to indicate what I believe to be the relative reliability of the predictions. The color codes are just my gut feel Ė your results may vary.

The graph following the prediction chart shows how the model compares to real-world data at 65F, 70F, and 75F. Only the 75F data (round black markers) was used to build the model. The black diamond and triangle markers (real-world 70F and 65F data respectively) were overlaid after the model was built as a predictive test.  

Iím curious to hear how the model output compares to other peopleís experiences.

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: scott123 on January 01, 2013, 02:39:58 PM
This is interesting, Craig.

I'm curious, how are you defining 'fermented?'  Is it volume?

Also, is starter this static or are variations in starter what you're calling 'changes in culture?'  Doesn't the plate count vary quite a bit depending on where the starter is in the feeding cycle?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 01, 2013, 03:19:54 PM
This is interesting, Craig.

I'm curious, how are you defining 'fermented?'  Is it volume?

Also, is starter this static or are variations in starter what you're calling 'changes in culture?'  Doesn't the plate count vary quite a bit depending on where the starter is in the feeding cycle?

The data was collected from my notes and from posts on the forum. "Fermented" is subjectively defined as "the dough is ready to bake." It is assumed that all starters are at their peak of activity and that assumption should carry over when employing the results of this model. Coming from multiple, uncontrolled sources, I had to normalize the data, and that was somewhat subjective as well. To make the homogenizing process as unbiased as possible, both the regression and test data were adjusted prior to building the model.

Again, I stress this model is designed to provide a very educated guess at where to start given typical assumptions across a wide range of uncertainties (various cultures, hydration, salinity, dough mass, etc). Some tweaking over several batches will likely be necessary to achieve optimum results.

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: taylorpetrehn on January 01, 2013, 03:54:06 PM
Great information Craig!

That's a very useful diagram. Excited to put it to the test
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on January 01, 2013, 06:26:57 PM
This is amazing.... excellent work! I just made a good NY street for new years eve, and your model was 100% accurate based on a 65* fermentation.

Wish I had this info a year ago. Very nice contribution to this forum. Thank you.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Michael130207 on January 01, 2013, 09:05:01 PM
Really cool resource Craig! Thanks for posting it.

FWIW In the past I tried to substitute ADY for starter in your original posted 48h workflow and found 0.02% ADY seemed to work alright. I did a 24 hour countertop ferment at about 65F-68F recently. After reading this post  I was curious if your data would fit with my results from that batch. I calculated a conversion constant from the ratio of ADY:Starter from my earlier attempt and arrived at 0.015 (ADY/Starter). I then checked your spread sheet and it seemed to fit well. I used 0.13% ADY and let it rise on the countertop at about 65F-68F and it was ready to go in about 24H.

I look forward to using your spreadsheet to try and predict other yeast temp combinations.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Serpentelli on January 02, 2013, 09:45:44 AM
Craig,

What are your experiences with using higher % starter in terms of effect on taste/crumb/leoparding, etc?
Most of the time I would prefer to use my starter, but my schedule doesn't permit me to make the dough 48 hours in advance, and I end up throwing in ADY. :(

I will try a 10% starter dough this weekend and give it 25 hours at 65 degrees.

BTW --- Holy crap, man. That post is one hell of giant leap for pizzakind. :)

John
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 02, 2013, 10:45:22 AM
Craig,

What are your experiences with using higher % starter in terms of effect on taste/crumb/leoparding, etc?
Most of the time I would prefer to use my starter, but my schedule doesn't permit me to make the dough 48 hours in advance, and I end up throwing in ADY. :(

I will try a 10% starter dough this weekend and give it 25 hours at 65 degrees.

BTW --- Holy crap, man. That post is one hell of giant leap for pizzakind. :)

John

Thanks John. You can make a great pie with a 24 hour dough for sure. Leoparding will probably be a little less. I've been doing 24 hour with my Detroit style with excellent flavor and texture results. Iíve been using 2% in the low 70Fís.

You will notice you can draw a line on the chart from 10%/65F to 1%/75F, and all the combinations will be 24 hour. I think any of them will work. Which you choose will depend on several factors including:

 - Your starter Ė if you are very confident in it, Iíd go with a lower %.

 - Your ability to maintain the temperature Ė If you think your fermentation temperature may drift up, go with a lower % and warmer temp that you can hold or vice versa.

In any case, particularly with your first attempt, keep an eye on it for the last 8 hours or so and make corrections as needed (e.g. putting in a warm oven to speed things up or in the fridge to slow things down). Personally, I like to work with warm dough as opposed to cold dough; if I ferment at 65F, I have to be mindful of needing to get it up into the 70ís over the last couple hours.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: scott123 on January 02, 2013, 11:35:00 AM
Craig, does this model have a formula?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: dellavecchia on January 02, 2013, 11:52:50 AM
What a great resource Craig. My workflow for 68-70 degrees looks just about right.

What are your thoughts on slow vs. fast fermentation rates as it applies to temperature? Is one better than the other in terms of flavor, texture, etc.? You can ferment something at 60 degrees or 90 degrees with the same percentage of starter, you just wait longer for one. Does more time equal more flavor production (by-products), or is it all a wash since the yeast are consuming slower?

John
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 02, 2013, 11:57:21 AM
Craig, does this model have a formula?

It [Rev1] has two three formulas.

The regression of the 23.9C (75F) data is:
Hours = -5.368 * LN(starter%) - 0.6014

The Gšnzle et al. C. milleri growth model I used to expand the regression across the temperature spectrum is:
relative growth = 0.0124 * ((36-temp)^2.981) * exp(-0.3355*(36-temp))

The LAB growth model is:
relative growth = 0.1267 * ((41-temp)^1.5404) * exp(-0.1931*(41-temp))

Temp is in Celsius. LAB activity is weighted at 50%.

The model uses the curve calculated at 23.9C and then adjusts it based on the growth rate ratio at a given temperature vs 23.9C.

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: scott123 on January 02, 2013, 12:28:33 PM
It has two formulas.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 02, 2013, 12:33:49 PM
What a great resource Craig. My workflow for 68-70 degrees looks just about right.

What are your thoughts on slow vs. fast fermentation rates as it applies to temperature? Is one better than the other in terms of flavor, texture, etc.? You can ferment something at 60 degrees or 90 degrees with the same percentage of starter, you just wait longer for one. Does more time equal more flavor production (by-products), or is it all a wash since the yeast are consuming slower?

John

John, I have no experience doing that with pizza, but I've had great results fermenting at 90-95F with bread. Theoretically, it should give an advantage to the bacteria as their peak activity is in the low 90's where the yeast should really be slowing. My experience is that you get a little more sour flavor, but what I really notice is more of a creamy, buttery flavor. The texture is as good or better compared to a cooler fermentation.

You can't go straight off this chart if you go hot (>85F). It won't take as long as it says. I think it has a lot to do with the yeast really getting kicked up into high gear as they go through their prime temperature zone as the dough warms. It's not as much of a factor when you go with a cooler fermentation as you are always moving away from their optimum temperature as the dough cools.

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: enter8 on January 02, 2013, 04:34:28 PM
John, I have no experience doing that with pizza, but I've had great results fermenting at 90-95F with bread. Theoretically, it should give an advantage to the bacteria as their peak activity is in the low 90's where the yeast should really be slowing. My experience is that you get a little more sour flavor, but what I really notice is more of a creamy, buttery flavor. The texture is as good or better compared to a cooler fermentation.

While >90F is towards the extreme of the active temperature range for Candida Milleri, it's optimal for certain LAB which release CO2 through the heterofermentative fermentation pathway.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: enter8 on January 02, 2013, 04:45:38 PM
@TXCraig1

Your model's predictions definitely seem to correspond with my previous experiences over a range of roomish temps (68-75F). I haven't done much cold fermentation so I can't really comment on that part of the chart.  Really impressed with this!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Matthew on January 03, 2013, 08:53:29 AM
Happy New Year & Great job as always.  

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: DannyG on January 03, 2013, 10:06:43 AM
Great chart but am I reading it correctly? To do a refrigerated fermentation at 40 degrees I would have to use 40% starter and it would take 169 hours or 7.05 days?

I've been doing my NY style with 5% starter, refrigerated for 3 days followed by room temperature for about 4 hours. The pies turn out fine but maybe I don't really know what complete fermentation is. According to the chart 5% starter at 40 degrees takes 654 hours or 27 days. Maybe I need to make some adjustments!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: dellavecchia on January 03, 2013, 10:30:01 AM
Great chart but am I reading it correctly? To do a refrigerated fermentation at 40 degrees I would have to use 40% starter and it would take 169 hours or 7.05 days?

I've been doing my NY style with 5% starter, refrigerated for 3 days followed by room temperature for about 4 hours. The pies turn out fine but maybe I don't really know what complete fermentation is. According to the chart 5% starter at 40 degrees takes 654 hours or 27 days. Maybe I need to make some adjustments!

No - The color coded areas in red are predictive only and Craig says they are not supposed to be reliable. Hydration, salt and time spent at room temperature has a direct effect on the maturation of dough. But it is interesting to see how non-optimal the refrigerator can be, and how it is better used as a retard instead of a fermentation technique.

John
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 03, 2013, 10:32:03 AM
Great chart but am I reading it correctly? To do a refrigerated fermentation at 40 degrees I would have to use 40% starter and it would take 169 hours or 7.05 days?

I've been doing my NY style with 5% starter, refrigerated for 3 days followed by room temperature for about 4 hours. The pies turn out fine but maybe I don't really know what complete fermentation is. According to the chart 5% starter at 40 degrees takes 654 hours or 27 days. Maybe I need to make some adjustments!

I think you're basically reading it right. Every data point on the chart represents the theoretical hours needed for a particular starter%/temperature combination. 40%/40F/169h is one possible combination. I color coded the chart for exactly the reason you noted. I don't think the points in red are viable and the ones in yellow are questionable (based on my experience - not science per se). The examples you gave are all solidly in the red.

Remember, this chart assumes 100% of the fermentation takes place at the given temperature. It does not take into account the time it takes the dough to get to that temperature nor does it contemplate fermentation at multiple temperatures. I'm not an advocate of cold fermentation- particularly with SD. I only included those temperatures in the chart for discussion purposes such as this.

All that being said, I'm still surprised to hear that 3 days in the fridge + 4 hours at RT is enough. Is your starter sourdough or is it made from commercial yeast?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: dellavecchia on January 03, 2013, 10:39:44 AM
All that being said, I'm still surprised to hear that 3 days in the fridge + 4 hours at RT is enough. Is your starter sourdough or is it made from commercial yeast?

Yes, I wondering the same. But do you think that bacterial fermentation is a factored into your chart? Or is it a non-issue?

John
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 03, 2013, 11:01:03 AM
Yes, I wondering the same. But do you think that bacterial fermentation is a factored into your chart? Or is it a non-issue?

John

No. It doesn't take LAB fermentation into account. The yeast and LAB activity in response to temperature is nearly identical below 80F. I wouldn't expect a model that included LAB fermentation to deviate much until you got north of 85F or so which really wasn't in the true scope of the project.

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: DannyG on January 03, 2013, 11:12:35 AM
I think you're basically reading it right. Every data point on the chart represents the theoretical hours needed for a particular starter%/temperature combination. 40%/40F/169h is one possible combination. I color coded the chart for exactly the reason you noted. I don't think the points in red are viable and the ones in yellow are questionable (based on my experience - not science per se). The examples you gave are all solidly in the red.

Remember, this chart assumes 100% of the fermentation takes place at the given temperature. It does not take into account the time it takes the dough to get to that temperature nor does it contemplate fermentation at multiple temperatures. I'm not an advocate of cold fermentation- particularly with SD. I only included those temperatures in the chart for discussion purposes such as this.

All that being said, I'm still surprised to hear that 3 days in the fridge + 4 hours at RT is enough. Is your starter sourdough or is it made from commercial yeast?

Wow, where is my head at? I use the refrigerator only for IDY. When I use my Ischia sourdough starter I put it in a small wine cooler refrigerator which is kept at 54 degrees. According to the chart this knocks the time down to 104 hrs/4.34 days. Figuring that I bench rest the dough for about an hour before cooling, and I take it out for a few hours before baking, I come much closer to the times on your chart.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 03, 2013, 01:39:07 PM
The chart below shows the changes in predicted fermentation hours between the original chart I posted and Rev1 (I replaced in the chart in the original post). I was pleased to see that the changes inside my original green zone (the original color zones are shown below) were for the most part negligible. The revised predictions fit the 65F test data better than the original. They also fit much better with other data I have both significantly cooler and warmer than the test data (not illustrated).

To be clear - the chart below only shows the difference between the original chart and Revision1. The chart at the beginning of the thread is the revised chart.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Jet_deck on January 03, 2013, 02:12:21 PM
Why are the numbers negative or is it just a dash?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: enter8 on January 03, 2013, 02:17:26 PM
Why are the numbers negative or is it just a dash?
The negative numbers are just showing the difference between the original and the revised figures. The corrected figures are on the first post of this thread.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 03, 2013, 02:21:06 PM
The negative numbers are just showing the difference between the original and the revised figures. The corrected figures are on the first post of this thread.

Correct.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: kiwipete on January 03, 2013, 03:22:05 PM
Great work, Craig, thank you.

Like you, my workflow has been established over a long time with lots of trial and error and is currently reasonably well established.

But if you are starting out with SD, or want to try something completely different, this is a great tool.

To prevent this thread from dropping down over time, I'd like to suggest to post the chart in the tools section or make the thread sticky or something along those lines.

Cheers

Peter
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: DannyG on January 04, 2013, 11:10:41 AM
Craig,
A couple of questions...
1. How do you determine what a fully fermented dough is?
2. Because we are talking a sourdough starter, is there really any taste or dough quality difference between a high percentage starter/short time vs. a low percentage starter/long time? If not, one can use your chart by determining how much time one has for fermentation and use the appropriate percentage of starter. This is a great tool.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 04, 2013, 11:37:08 AM
Craig,
A couple of questions...
1. How do you determine what a fully fermented dough is?
2. Because we are talking a sourdough starter, is there really any taste or dough quality difference between a high percentage starter/short time vs. a low percentage starter/long time? If not, one can use your chart by determining how much time one has for fermentation and use the appropriate percentage of starter. This is a great tool.

1) It's loosely defined as the dough is ready to be baked - typically this would be determined visually by the amount of rise.
2) I don't know. My gut feeling is there are some differences, but there are so many trade-offs and ways to compensate for one factor with another. Take gluten for example, it can be developed mechanically or simply with time. As for flavor, that is probably even more effected by the specific culture than fermentation time.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: deb415611 on January 05, 2013, 06:48:40 AM
Thank you Craig, this is great.  I often shy away from starter because I can't find a recipe that works for what I want my timing to be,  this will make it much easier to create my own.

I agree with others that it would be good to put in the tools section or stickied.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: bfguilford on January 05, 2013, 02:21:51 PM
Thanks for doing the work on this, Craig. Your commitment to pizzamaking and this forum is really appreciated. Lately, I've been using my Ischia only for bread baking, and this is inspiring me to try NY style using starter again.

Barry
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 06, 2013, 05:14:07 PM
Mitch (mitchjg) asked me a question about using the data in the model to calculate the effects of multiple time/temp combinations on the same dough. Looking at the model, it occured to me that you can easily do just that with the model exactly as it is. I added a few more columns (starter%) to the chart so there is more data to work with (less extrapolation needed). I also stripped off the red zones. The data itself and model are unchanged. You could use this same technique with the chart on the first page of this thread. The charts below are optimized to make it even easier.


Example 1
Say you made a batch of dough w/1.5% starter that normally takes 48 hours at 64F to be ready. Being that it is winter and cooler in the house that normal, your fermentation set up (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,18509.msg179991.html#msg179991) is running cooler than normal - 60F rather than 64F. How could you adjust your workflow to have the dough ready on time? Perhaps you could move it to the oven with the light on which is holding at about 80F, but for how long? This is the problem I faced over the past couple days.

We know from the model that 1.5% starter @ 60F should take ~69hours (1 below). I fermented the bulk for 24 hours at 60F. I then balled it and put it back into the box at 60F for another 12 hours Ė a total of 36 hours at 60F. According to the model, I should need another 33 at 60F (2), but the model tells us a whole lot more than that. Every data point up and down that column represents a time/temperature combination that will finish the dough. All you have to do is slide down to 80F, and you see that dough will be ready in 9 hours at 80F.

I hadnít thought about doing this when I made my dough Thursday night Ė nor on Saturday morning when I moved it to the oven with the light on. It turns out however, that my results were spot-on what the model would have predicted.

IMPORTANT: Keep in mind that dough doesnít instantly go from 60F to 80F. Actually, my oven with the light on is closer to 85F, but the average dough temp over the 9 hours was probably around 80F Ė just a gut feel adjustment. You might need to make adjustments recognizing this sort of thing. The shorter the window of time at a temperature, the more important the adjustment becomes as the dough temperature transition time becomes a much larger portion of the total time.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 06, 2013, 05:14:58 PM
Example 2
How about two temperature changes? Letís say you made a 1.5% starter dough and wanted to do a 2 hour bulk ferment at your room temperature of 78F followed by 24 hours in balls at 65F, and then bring the dough back to room temperature to bake. How long is the dough going to need at 78F at the end to get ready? (Ignoring any adjustments discussed above for simplicity of illustration.)

Start at 1.5% and 78F (1) then move over two hours to represent the 2-hour bulk ferment. Like before, every data point in this column (2) represents a time/temperature combination that will finish the dough. Go up to 65F, and you see that you need 39 hours to finish the dough at this temperature (3). But we donít want to finish it at this temperature Ė we just want 24 hours here, so slide over to the right 24 hours. This column (4) tells us what we need at any given time/temp to finish. If we slide down to 78F, we see that weíll need about 6 hours.

The dough coming out of our mixer was probably neat 78F, so we probably donít need to adjust that, and the second leg is 24 hours, so maybe that is OK too as the dough temperature will adjust long before 24 hours. However, going from 64 to 78 in 6 hours might not be representative of what the model is calculating. We might want to adjust the 78F down a couple degrees to account for the fact that it will take a meaningful amount of the total time at 78F to get there. We can look back up the column (4) a couple degrees and see that we should probably be prepared for it to take perhaps 7 hours or maybe a little more.

Looking up and down the column, above and below your predicted time, will give you an idea of how sensitive the prediction is. In this case, you can go up 3F and still only have a 1 hour change. There are other places on the chart where a 1F change could result in a time change of several hours or more. Those are the predictions you need to keep a close eye on when trying.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 06, 2013, 05:15:29 PM
Example 3
Rather than predict when a given dough will be ready, this time we will predict how much starter to use in the first place. This can be done by working backwards through the model.

For example, if you wanted 21 hours at 62F followed by 12 hours @ 70F, how much starter do you use? To figure it out, you start where you want to finish. Go across the 70F row until you find 12 hours (1). Now go up that column (2) until you hit the 62F row. Take the number you find there Ė in this case 23 hours - and add 21 hours to it for the bulk ferment to get 44 hours. Now go left across the row (3) until you find 44 (4). From there shoot up to the top and you will find the predicted amount of starter needed - 4% (5).

You can easily add additional fermentation stages to the prediction. If you wanted 5 hours at 77F before the 21 hours at 62F, from (4) instead of going up to find the starter % as described above, you would drop down to the 77F row, add 5 to the number you found there (15+5=20), slide left until you found that number, then shoot up to the top to find the starter % - 1.5% (red dotted line)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 06, 2013, 05:17:13 PM
Example 4
Interpolation

If you wanted to do 2 hours bulk at 78F followed by 36 hours in balls at 65F, how much culture should you use? This time, the numbers you are looking for are not going to be expressly on the table. You will need to interpolate to find them.

Again, start where you want to finish Ė in this case, 36h/65F Ė here we go down the 65F row and we see we need to interpolate between 34 and 37 hours (1).   Next, slide down that column (2) until you get to your bulk temperature row of 78F (3) and interpolate the result between 15 and 16 hours. Since 36 is about 2/3 of the way between 34 and 37F, I estimated the number to be about 15.7 (2/3 of the way between 15 and 16). To that number, add the desired amount of bulk time (2 hours) giving you 17.7 hours and slide to the left until you reach it Ė youíll have to interpolate again (4), and then shoot up to the top of the table to estimate the predicted starter quantity needed Ė 2.2% (5).

I would guess that in most, if not all, cases, simply splitting the difference between numbers would plenty accurate.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 06, 2013, 05:17:36 PM
Here is a blank chart you can work from:
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: kiwipete on January 06, 2013, 05:49:56 PM
That is an absolutely brilliant (an unexpected) use of the model.

Many thanks!

Peter
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 06, 2013, 10:40:45 PM
Mitch came up with a great methodology for using the model data to compute starter% given multiple fermentation stages. This way you don't have to backtrack through the chart; you just plug in your numbers. The chart itself is still a great tool for making changes on the fly as I described above.

I set the model up so that up to 10 stages could be entered, not that anyone would do a 10 stage ferment per-se but rather so there would be the flexibility to more smoothly model the transitions between temperatures if desired. You don't have to jump straight from room temp to 64F if you don't want to, you could make an educated guess and stick in a couple intermediate temps and times if you like. However, this isn't necessary. Unused stages have no impact.

In the yellow cells, simply enter the time and temperature for each stage. For an unused stage, just make the time 0. It doesn't matter what the temperature is if the time is 0. The model will update the predicted starter quantity as you make changes. The other calculation the model shows is how much of the fermentation is occurring at each stage. This is the percent of flora activity not the percent of time. Enter a low temperature and a long time as one of the stages as an example, and you will see how it contributes a relatively small amount of the total fermentation.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Serpentelli on January 08, 2013, 11:52:13 AM
Here's another wrinkle I was actually thinking about last night: What about "arresting" the process somewhere in between either bulk + ball, or post-ball but pre-completion of fermentation, via freezing

It would seem that as long as your final (post freeze)fermentation temperature was high enough (say 80 degrees in may case) and you took into account the time it takes for the ball to come up to the 80 degree temperature, the model should be greatly helpful for a guy like me who wants to have some greater flexibilty & spontaneity for a midweek pizza night.

I would just take the balls out of the freezer in the morning, bring up to RT in a warm water bath (in airtight vacuum sealed bags), and then leave in an 80 degree environment until ready to use that evening.

What am I missing?

Thanks,

John
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: PizzaJerk on January 08, 2013, 12:34:42 PM
Craig, I thank you for creating this most helpful chart. I thought I was making a fairly predictable dough before and now I can just about pencil in the same flavor, rise and fermentation schedule every time. It can be adjusted on the fly based on demand as well. What a great tool, especially for those in a commercial environment.

Anthony
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 08, 2013, 01:08:35 PM
Happy it is helpful!  ;D
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: shuboyje on January 09, 2013, 08:18:23 PM
Craig,

I'm not into natural starters so I've managed to miss this thread until now, but just had to say really cool and interesting stuff.  This will be incredibly valuable for members looking to make the jump to natural fermentation.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 09, 2013, 09:18:00 PM
Craig,

I'm not into natural starters so I've managed to miss this thread until now, but just had to say really cool and interesting stuff.  This will be incredibly valuable for members looking to make the jump to natural fermentation.

Thanks Jeff. I hope people wil ltake advantage of it. I think it will really reduce the amount of experimentation needed to zero in on a new formula or modify the timing on an existing formula.

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Mangia Pizza on January 13, 2013, 07:00:11 AM
Craig, this thread is a God sent for me just starting out using cultures.....  thank you!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on January 13, 2013, 10:48:47 PM
I'm currently in the process of doing a multi-temp ferment, and will post the results on Tuesday night when it's complete.

8.5% Ischia Starter, 84 hours at 45* (fridge), then pull for 12.5 hours at 65*

This should be a good test for the cold ferment (red) section. I've already tested 8.5% at 65* only, and that was spot on.

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Barry on January 14, 2013, 02:22:58 AM
Hi Craig,

Your table is really very helpful, particularly with multiple stage (at different temp) fermentation. I use fresh cake yeast on most occasions. Is there a generally accepted substitution rate for activated starter. What I am asking is , "how many grams of fresh yeast is equivalent to 1% activated starter"?

It would be great for me to use a table that showed the temperature in Celsius, and the yeast as fresh yeast measured in grams.....

Thanks for the awesome info.

best wishes

Barry in Cape Town
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 14, 2013, 08:06:51 AM
Your table is really very helpful, particularly with multiple stage (at different temp) fermentation. I use fresh cake yeast on most occasions. Is there a generally accepted substitution rate for activated starter. What I am asking is , "how many grams of fresh yeast is equivalent to 1% activated starter"?

It would be great for me to use a table that showed the temperature in Celsius, and the yeast as fresh yeast measured in grams.....

Barry, for my Ischia in the 60-70F (15.6-21.1C) range, I would say it is approximately1% culture = 0.015% IDY, 0.02% ADY, or 0.05% CY.

The farther you get from 65F, the less confident I would be with this conversion. I'm working on a chart for commercial yeast, but it might be a while.

Lastly, it would not be practical to make a chart that gave the result in grams as it would then be specific to a specific flour quantity. I guess I could do it for 1kg flour, but I think the percentages are just as easy.

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 14, 2013, 08:23:33 AM
Here is the chart w/ Celsius. Directions for using it with multiple stages can be found here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,22649.msg230690.html#msg230690
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on January 14, 2013, 09:04:46 AM
TX:

Not to give you more work to do, but I have a question about your multi-ferment calculation. It seems starter % is the variable, but I would imagine people have set recipes and would rather use the same amount of starter and adjust time.  Would it be possible to make a second table where you would input a starter %, and then input your desired temperatures that automatically calulate total ferment times in stages?

Let me know if what I'm saying is confusing

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 14, 2013, 05:18:37 PM
TX:

Not to give you more work to do, but I have a question about your multi-ferment calculation. It seems starter % is the variable, but I would imagine people have set recipes and would rather use the same amount of starter and adjust time.  Would it be possible to make a second table where you would input a starter %, and then input your desired temperatures that automatically calulate total ferment times in stages?

Let me know if what I'm saying is confusing



That would be tough because there is an infinite number of ways that the fermentation time could be divided between multiple stages. 

Is it really that difficult on inconvenient to change the starter % in a recipe? Maintaining your workflow schedule - hitting your time and temperature marks - is what matters; that is what develops flavor and consistency. I can't think of a single reason why maintaining the starter % in a formula would be preferable.

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 14, 2013, 05:23:34 PM
If maintaining the starter % in a formula is important for some reason I'm not thinking of, the chart will give you the answer you are looking for: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,22649.msg230692.html#msg230692

I can give additional examples or color if needed.

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on January 14, 2013, 05:47:23 PM
I had to postpone my pizza night from Tuesday to Wednesday, so obviously I can't adjust the Starter % and would like to know what my new 2nd stage (warm) ferment time would be since I'm cold fermenting for an additional 24 hours. That's why I presented the question for you, but you're right I can use the chart. It certainly made it much easier for me in the first place.

-JD
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Barry on January 15, 2013, 05:27:52 AM
Hi Craig,

Thank you very much for the table with the Celsius temps. You are right about the "grams of yeast" - it can only be in percentages of flour.

I look forward to your chart for commercial yeast. Much appreciated.

Best wishes

Barry in Cape Town
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: 3.1416 on January 16, 2013, 10:51:02 AM
TXCraig1,
That is a great chart! I am new to this site. I have been a sourdough baker for several years. Do you have a chart for the percent of fermentation growth per time at a specific temperature? I would like to follow your lead and keep my dough cool for some amount of time and then move it to a warmer or cooler temp for the finish. If I knew the rate of growth per temp per time then I could hazard better guesses.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 16, 2013, 11:19:21 AM
TXCraig1,
That is a great chart! I am new to this site. I have been a sourdough baker for several years. Do you have a chart for the percent of fermentation growth per time at a specific temperature? I would like to follow your lead and keep my dough cool for some amount of time and then move it to a warmer or cooler temp for the finish. If I knew the rate of growth per temp per time then I could hazard better guesses.

Does this give you the information you need?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: dellavecchia on January 16, 2013, 02:11:16 PM
Does this give you the information you need?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0

Where have you been all my life?

John
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: 3.1416 on January 16, 2013, 06:43:58 PM
Does this give you the information you need?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0
That looks great, good sir. Thank you.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 16, 2013, 07:21:16 PM
Where have you been all my life?

John

Me or the spreadsheet?  :-[
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on January 16, 2013, 09:33:04 PM
Ok TX I have some interesting results to share with you.

Friday night I made a 60% hydration NY style dough using 8.5% starter. I cold fermented in the fridge at a steady 45* until this morning (approximately 108 hours) and "warm" fermented at 65* for 11 hours. My original calculation using your spreadsheet was a warm fermentation of 8.5 hours (which got me close to my original starter percentage of 8.5%) but due to reasons outside of my control I had to push it to 11.

I have a strong opinion that my dough was under-fermented. In the pictures below you'll see a shot after the 108hr cold ferment, after the additional 11 hour warm ferment (did not reball or punch dough), and the final crust shot (chicken parm pizza from leftover sunday dinner in case you were wondering :) )

After the cold ferment, you can see there wasn't much for small bubbles. After the warm, again not impressive, however I started seeing a little more life right near the end of the 11th hour. The crust shot was fairly dense with not an impressive spring.

I have a suspicion that most of the visible bubbles are actually from bacterial by-products instead of yeast, and it wasn't until the dough was moved to the 65* temperature that the yeast actually started fermenting.

For the sake of experimentation, I created two identical doughballs on Friday. Sometime this upcoming weekend I intend to do a full 24 hour 65* warm rise with the second doughball to verify if the above is true. If what I'm saying is true, then a 45 degree cold ferment at 8.5% starter basically does nothing for fermentation, however the flavor was very tasty.

I'll post back when I complete the second experiment this weekend.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 16, 2013, 10:15:43 PM
Friday night I made a 60% hydration NY style dough using 8.5% starter. I cold fermented in the fridge at a steady 45* until this morning (approximately 108 hours) and "warm" fermented at 65* for 11 hours. My original calculation using your spreadsheet was a warm fermentation of 8.5 hours (which got me close to my original starter percentage of 8.5%) but due to reasons outside of my control I had to push it to 11.

I have a strong opinion that my dough was under-fermented.

If your refrigerator is 45F, you have another problem - that's dangerously too warm for a fridge - it should be 38F max, and ideal is closer to 36F. If it's actually 38F, the model would have predicted 13.7%, at 36F, 15.6%. My guess is that you should have used somewhere 62% and 82% more starter than you did (given 11 hours at 65F). For 8.5 hours at 65F, you would have needed more than 2X what you used. Of course all of these figures come from the red zone, but it sounds like the might not be too far off?

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Omidz on January 16, 2013, 11:54:50 PM
Craig. I'm going to test out a sponge/bulk ferment/ball work flow this weekend. my ggarage is a cool and pretty consistent 59-62 degrees all day.

I wanted to run by  you what I am planning on doing for starter and time and see what you think.

Starter 1.5
Time 62(Thursday night to Sunday noon)   hours for party and 38(saturday)  for day before to try some pies. I will warm up a tray or two around 30 hours

Using your model looks like this should work. Am I missing something?
I figured I can always warm up the balls in my house running around 74 if need be so a few hours on the longer side is wise.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on January 17, 2013, 08:46:15 AM
If your refrigerator is 45F, you have another problem - that's dangerously too warm for a fridge - it should be 38F max, and ideal is closer to 36F. If it's actually 38F, the model would have predicted 13.7%, at 36F, 15.6%. My guess is that you should have used somewhere 62% and 82% more starter than you did (given 11 hours at 65F). For 8.5 hours at 65F, you would have needed more than 2X what you used. Of course all of these figures come from the red zone, but it sounds like the might not be too far off?

CL

First, thank you for bringing the fridge temp to my attention. Clearly I had no idea 45 was too high and I adjusted the temp this morning.

A longgg Second:

I took multiple temperature readings thoughout my experiment and it was in fact 45* in the fridge, and the middle of the dough ball. I did not guess at that number.

So I used your auto-calculating tool to help me figure out what my warm temp time would be (see attached picture). The only thing that is not a variable in the tool is the warm temp time. My starter percent would remain 8.5% since I had already made the dough. Also my house stays at a cozy 65* in the winter so that will not change. After 108 hours @ 45*, the only thing I can adjust to "complete" my fermentation is the warm temp TIME. Please review the spreadsheet and let me know if I'm using your tool correctly.


If my calculations are correct, I stand by my original statement that little to no fermentation had occurred at 45* & 8.5% starter. I checked my second doughball this morning (which is now on day 5.5 at 45*) and it too shows little to no signs of fermentation.

I strongly believe that if you are only using a starter, the fridge will almost completely arrest yeast fermentation at these low percentages. If this is true, this would be a huge benefit as far as planning is concerned, where I could make a doughball 2 weeks in advance and not worry about degradation of the doughball. However, the bacterial processes are not affected in the same way so you may reach a point of no return where the dough is overly sour.

There was a recent post by EV where a 2 week old Lehmann style dough was made, and it looked beautiful. Furthermore, he used IDY which in my opinion has a greater resistance to cold than my Ischia starter. If EV can do 2 weeks with an IDY, I bet I can do at least 3 weeks using a starter.

It is not my intention to push the boundaries in a glutenboy fashion, but simply to see if you could be a little more flexible in your dough making schedule if cold "storage" is a viable option.

Open to all opinions, however I'm going to use my second doughball to carry out this experiment. I think I'll start with 2 weeks and see how that goes (which means I'll make the dough around Friday the 25th of January).

If you prefer I start my own thread, please let me know.

JD
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 17, 2013, 09:13:46 AM
Craig. I'm going to test out a sponge/bulk ferment/ball work flow this weekend. my ggarage is a cool and pretty consistent 59-62 degrees all day.

I wanted to run by  you what I am planning on doing for starter and time and see what you think.

Starter 1.5
Time 62(Thursday night to Sunday noon)   hours for party and 38(saturday)  for day before to try some pies. I will warm up a tray or two around 30 hours

Using your model looks like this should work. Am I missing something?
I figured I can always warm up the balls in my house running around 74 if need be so a few hours on the longer side is wise.

Sunday looks about right. I'm not exactly sure what you are saying about Saturday. Are you going to start warming after 30 or 38 hours at 59-62F?

You got balls going blind like this for a party. I'd start paying close attention to it at least 8 hours before the party. You should know by then if it is going to need to be warmed. My guess is warming for less than 6 hours or so at 74F will have little immediate effect.

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 17, 2013, 11:58:27 AM
So I used your auto-calculating tool to help me figure out what my warm temp time would be (see attached picture). The only thing that is not a variable in the tool is the warm temp time. My starter percent would remain 8.5% since I had already made the dough. Also my house stays at a cozy 65* in the winter so that will not change. After 108 hours @ 45*, the only thing I can adjust to "complete" my fermentation is the warm temp TIME. Please review the spreadsheet and let me know if I'm using your tool correctly.

Yes, it looks like you did the mechanics correctly.

Quote
If my calculations are correct, I stand by my original statement that little to no fermentation had occurred at 45* & 8.5% starter. I checked my second doughball this morning (which is now on day 5.5 at 45*) and it too shows little to no signs of fermentation.

I strongly believe that if you are only using a starter, the fridge will almost completely arrest yeast fermentation at these low percentages.

You may be right, and it wouldnít surprise me if you were. Notwithstanding, it thought it was clear in my original post that the red-zone data was for discussion purposes only and not to be trusted for pizzamaking. I just added some conditional formatting to the spreadsheet to point it out there as well.

Quote
If this is true, this would be a huge benefit as far as planning is concerned, where I could make a doughball 2 weeks in advance and not worry about degradation of the doughball.


There are limits; enzymatic activity also slows, but it does not stop, and sooner or later the proteolytic enzymes (and acids) will degrade the gluten matrix to the point the dough is unusable. I donít think this will take two weeks.

Quote
However, the bacterial processes are not affected in the same way so you may reach a point of no return where the dough is overly sour.

Bacterial processes are also affected by temperature. The LAB growth rate slows similarly with yeast at low temps.  The lactic-acetic acid mix swings towards the more sour tasting acetic as the bacteria get colder, but the total acid production slows dramatically. I tend to doubt that sourness is going to be the limiting factor. I think the enzymes and acids will degrade your dough first.

Quote
There was a recent post by EV where a 2 week old Lehmann style dough was made, and it looked beautiful. Furthermore, he used IDY which in my opinion has a greater resistance to cold than my Ischia starter. If EV can do 2 weeks with an IDY, I bet I can do at least 3 weeks using a starter.

Iíll take that bet. I donít think a SD can go that long without turning into a pile of gloop. I know 3 weeks can be done with bakerís yeast, Tom (Tscarborough) uses 20-21 day dough fairly regularly, however when using bakerís yeast, you have much less in the way of acids and enzymes to contend with.

Quote
It is not my intention to push the boundaries in a glutenboy fashion, but simply to see if you could be a little more flexible in your dough making schedule if cold "storage" is a viable option.

Open to all opinions, however I'm going to use my second doughball to carry out this experiment. I think I'll start with 2 weeks and see how that goes (which means I'll make the dough around Friday the 25th of January).

In my experience, cold (refrigerated) fermentation with SD has a meaningful deleterious effect on texture and browning even after only a few days. I'm curious to see your results. Even if it works mechanically, I think you will pay a price in flavor which I've found to be optimized aroud 65F.

Quote
If you prefer I start my own thread, please let me know.
Iím curious to see your results. You are welcome to post here or start a new thread if you prefer. If you get some good and useful results, it probably deserves a new thread.

In an earlier post, you commented:

Quote
I have a suspicion that most of the visible bubbles are actually from bacterial by-products instead of yeast, and it wasn't until the dough was moved to the 65* temperature that the yeast actually started fermenting.

On what do you base that suspicion? CO2 is always an indicator of carbohydrate metabolism in yeast, but not necessarily so with LAB.

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on January 17, 2013, 12:41:08 PM

You may be right, and it wouldnít surprise me if you were. Notwithstanding, it thought it was clear in my original post that the red-zone data was for discussion purposes only and not to be trusted for pizzamaking. I just added some conditional formatting to the spreadsheet to point it out there as well.

It was 100% clear that a red zone number was more of an unknown. I was hoping to provide some valuable feedback so you can eliminate some of that red area.


There are limits; enzymatic activity also slows, but it does not stop, and sooner or later the proteolytic enzymes (and acids) will degrade the gluten matrix to the point the dough is unusable. I donít think this will take two weeks.

I suppose I was thinking on a much less scientific level than required. This is well beyond my knowledge, thanks for sharing.


In my experience, cold (refrigerated) fermentation with SD has a meaningful deleterious effect on texture and browning even after only a few days. I'm curious to see your results. Even if it works mechanically, I think you will pay a price in flavor which I've found to be optimized aroud 65F.
Iím curious to see your results. You are welcome to post here or start a new thread if you prefer. If you get some good and useful results, it probably deserves a new thread.

I'll do a 2 week cold ferment and post my results in this thread. If it warrants further investigation I'll start a new thread where hopefully people with more knowledge on the scientific background will want to help.

Further, at 8.5% and 65*, my New Years Eve pizza was done in 24 hours (as per your chart as well as actual results). I dont think it was enough time for LAB effect to add enough flavor, so just for clarity you do a much lower % at 65 for a longer ferment, correct? You mentioned this to me a while back and I never had the opportunity to try it because of the heat, but now that winter is upon me my entire house is a 65* proofing box.


On what do you base that suspicion? CO2 is always an indicator of carbohydrate metabolism in yeast, but not necessarily so with LAB.

Just a hunch since my dough was significantly under-fermented after the 45* cold stage. The dough had great flavor (due to LAB) so I'm assuming a by-product of LAB is a small amount of CO2, but again, just an assumption. It very well could have been a small amount of yeast fermentation.


Thanks for the reply & insite

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 17, 2013, 01:22:06 PM
Quote
just for clarity you do a much lower % at 65 for a longer ferment, correct?

Yes, 1.3-1.5% for 48 hours. It usually ends up being between 61 anf 64F for about 40 hours and then 77F for the last 8 or so.

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on January 17, 2013, 01:45:39 PM

Just a hunch since my dough was significantly under-fermented after the 45* cold stage. The dough had great flavor (due to LAB) so I'm assuming a by-product of LAB is a small amount of CO2, but again, just an assumption. It very well could have been a small amount of yeast fermentation.

Just did a quick google search to see if there was and truth behind my assumption, and found this along with an article that goes way above my understanding of LAB:

"Starting from glucose, homofermentative LAB
mainly produce lactic acid through glycolysis (homolactic
fermentation) while heterofermentative LAB produce,
besides lactic acid, CO2, acetic acid and/or ethanol
"

Full 20 page .pdf found here: http://www.microsour.com/pdf/7-lactobascilli-and-sourdough-fermentation.pdf

I'm sure someone here is familiar with it
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 17, 2013, 04:17:30 PM
Just did a quick google search to see if there was and truth behind my assumption, and found this along with an article that goes way above my understanding of LAB:

"Starting from glucose, homofermentative LAB
mainly produce lactic acid through glycolysis (homolactic
fermentation) while heterofermentative LAB produce,
besides lactic acid, CO2, acetic acid and/or ethanol
"

Full 20 page .pdf found here: http://www.microsour.com/pdf/7-lactobascilli-and-sourdough-fermentation.pdf

I'm sure someone here is familiar with it


Yes, Iím familiar with article, and I donít think that quote says anything to support your assumption. I didnít say heterofermentative LAB donít produce CO2. Rather the model takes into account that they do. That citation is pretty much what I just told you: "CO2 is always an indicator of carbohydrate metabolism in yeast, but not necessarily so with LAB." Thatís all it says.

The bottom line is that you canít look at a bubble in the dough and say with any level of confidence that is was made by yeast or LAB (or both).
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on January 17, 2013, 05:35:01 PM

The bottom line is that you canít look at a bubble in the dough and say with any level of confidence that is was made by yeast or LAB (or both).


Yes I agree.

Maybe it's coming across differently in text format, but I'm not arguing against anything you are suggesting. I'm thirsty for knowledge, which is why we're all here in the first place isn't it?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Omidz on January 17, 2013, 09:46:34 PM
Sunday looks about right. I'm not exactly sure what you are saying about Saturday. Are you going to start warming after 30 or 38 hours at 59-62F?

You got balls going blind like this for a party. I'd start paying close attention to it at least 8 hours before the party. You should know by then if it is going to need to be warmed. My guess is warming for less than 6 hours or so at 74F will have little immediate effect.

CL



Ok I hope I did the quote function correct here Craig. What I meant about saturday is I am going to warm a tray or two on that day so I can get two days
of cooking out of my weekend. Imy sounds like you are saying if things are looking pretty raw then I should warn up 8 hours before the party cause a few hours with this process won't do much correct?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on January 25, 2013, 09:00:19 PM
As promised, I am posting the results of my 2 week fridge ferment.

Quick recap: I did a 2 week cold ferment in the fridge + 24 hour warm rise at 65* to find out how much the dough actually ferments in the fridge. Long story short, the dough turned out to be fairly weak as Craig suggested would happen. However fermentation was surprisingly very much in line with a dough that came right out of the mixer. In other words, it is my opinion that the dough was not over-fermented which may be suggested by my pictures below. In addition, it was the most flavorful & perfectly colored crust I've personally created.

The down side of the long ferment is that there were a few holes that needed patching when opening the skin since elasticity diminished. After I loaded the toppings, a shake of the peel kept opening new holes. I was actually able to save the pizza, but it was too fragile to be worth the extra fridge time.

So in summary, I believe you can make a dough with a starter, throw it in the fridge and use it within (x) amount of days and disregard any "fermentation" time while in the fridge. Max time in the fridge would still need to be determined, but I would imagine it would align with Glutenboy's results of 10+ days. Me personally, I'm going to try 7 next to see if I get some elasticity back.


If at the very least, I can make some dough on Sunday and use it at my discretion during the week with positive results, I'm a happy guy.

JD
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: dineomite on January 31, 2013, 02:51:44 PM
Craig,

   I'm on vacation and look forward to come back (even though it'll be fifty degree difference), so I can start playing around with this info. Very cool. Thanks. ;D
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 31, 2013, 03:25:30 PM
Craig,

   I'm on vacation and look forward to come back (even though it'll be fifty degree difference), so I can start playing around with this info. Very cool. Thanks. ;D

You're welcome. I look forward to seeing the results.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Everlast on February 01, 2013, 01:06:49 PM
Craig, thanks for posting this. Your generosity in sharing information continually blows me away. Per the Multiple Stage Starter Prediction Model, if you were to bulk ferment at 65F for 24 hours, then ball and ferment for another 24 hours at 65F, then proof for 3 hours at 75F, the model calls for 0.6% starter. Don't you usually recommend 1.3% for this fermentation schedule? Am I overlooking something here?

Damian
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: iblive on February 01, 2013, 05:19:24 PM
Wow.... I've been WAY under thinking the sourdough pizza I've been making. I've put absolutely no science into it and it turns out pretty darn good.... based off how fast it disappears. 
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on February 03, 2013, 09:50:07 PM
For anyone following my fridge experiment: I made another 8.5% starter dough and now have a hunch that something else is going on.

I'm pretty sure Craig said it somewhere a little while back, but I believe putting a dough in the fridge has a larger negative effect on the yeast than I previously thought. As usual I didn't change anything in my dough, but this time did a 5 day cold ferment and 24 hour warm ferment @ 65*F. The dough had many small bubbles but didn't really increase in volume. Additionally my spring & top color were both very poor.

I did use a different baking surface (steel instead of firebrick), however this should in theory produce a better spring, not worse. I had enough heat in the steel... pic below was about a 6 minute bake @ 525, obviously slightly overdone. I used a broiler for 2ish minutes and my cheese/toppings were cooked very nicely. The top crust was so pale and unappetizing and the only variable was the cold ferment time.

I'm going to open a new thread on this subject since I don't want to overload this one anymore than it already is. My next experiment is going to be adding a certain % of additional starter if my intent is to cold ferment to make up for the poor performance due to cold fermenting.

Thread started here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,23250.new.html#new (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,23250.new.html#new)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: DenaliPete on February 12, 2013, 09:09:26 PM
So, just to be clear, as math isn't using my strong suit.

If I were to make dough that I wanted to use 24 hours later and were allowing the dough to ferment at 75 degrees, I would want to use 1% starter?

If that is correct, I'm unclear as to how long I should do the bulk ferment and at what point I should ball the dough.

And also, say I was still fermenting at 75% but wanted to use the dough 12 hours later, I would use 9.6%?

Could I expect the two different doughs to perform the same then?

Sorry for the silly questions, but this is a troubling topic for me.

Pete
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 12, 2013, 10:12:34 PM
So, just to be clear, as math isn't using my strong suit.

If I were to make dough that I wanted to use 24 hours later and were allowing the dough to ferment at 75 degrees, I would want to use 1% starter?
Yes

Quote
If that is correct, I'm unclear as to how long I should do the bulk ferment and at what point I should ball the dough.
That's up to you, but I would give two points of guidance based on my experience - 1) you don't want much signs of visibly activity (bubbles) when you ball, and 2) you want at least 4 and probably 5+ hours in balls. I usually do 12-24 hours in balls.

Quote
And also, say I was still fermenting at 75% but wanted to use the dough 12 hours later, I would use 9.6%?
You mean 75F, not 75%, right? If so, yes, about 10% for 12 hours at 75F.

Quote
Could I expect the two different doughs to perform the same then?

Yes, they should perform about the same; the crumb structure might be a little different. They probably won't taste the same.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: DenaliPete on February 15, 2013, 01:58:57 AM
Another stupid question.

When we are talking about starter %, is that % a reflection on flour weight, water weight, or total weight?

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Chicago Bob on February 15, 2013, 02:05:19 AM
Another stupid question.

When we are talking about starter %, is that % a reflection on flour weight, water weight, or total weight?


Denali.
No such thing as a stupid question....
All %'s of ingredients follow after the total(100%) flour weight.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: dellavecchia on February 22, 2013, 11:54:45 AM
Craig - I came across this data and thought it might be interesting for this thread:

http://www.wraithnj.com/breadpics/rise_time_table/bread_model_bwraith.htm

There are tabs at the bottom which expand on the table.

John
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 22, 2013, 01:30:34 PM
Thank you. I will study it.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: arspistorica on March 16, 2013, 12:13:31 AM
I may be of help here.  You need to solve for other parameters as well, such as ionic strength, water activity as expressed as ionic strength, redox potential and substrate access.  I'd first get started on adding a new process-parameter:  salt and then expressing its content as ionic-strength.  I can provide that data if you cannot find it.  This would then modify the information you have already gathered from before:  inoculation percentage (and hence starting-dough pH) and temperature, both of which give you a specified generation-time.  That generation-time means nothing without the other, directly-correlative outliers sourdough microflora commonly encounter during the course of fermentation.

You'll find that water-activity has little impact on time, barely shaving generation-time by a factor of .0154% at a water-activity of .94 and by a mere .1224% at a water-activity of .99.

All this being said, this model is only predictive for cultures where Lb SF is the dominant microorganism during all fermentative conditions, which is a big assumption.  Complicating matters even more, time does not matter in order to understand fermentation.  It's merely an outcome.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: rrweather on June 20, 2013, 08:41:18 AM
This thread is awesome. I can't wait to have my starters going to be able to use the chart as a guideline. One question (potentially stupid), does this chart/data specifically apply to pizza dough or just dough in general? In other words, can it be applied to breads as well? Craig, thanks for taking to time to work on this and make it available to people like me that can use all the help we can get!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 20, 2013, 10:55:23 AM
This thread is awesome. I can't wait to have my starters going to be able to use the chart as a guideline. One question (potentially stupid), does this chart/data specifically apply to pizza dough or just dough in general? In other words, can it be applied to breads as well? Craig, thanks for taking to time to work on this and make it available to people like me that can use all the help we can get!

It should work as a starting point for most things. Sweet doughs may vary more than others.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Trickydick on June 20, 2013, 03:03:55 PM
TXCraig,

Thank you for your shared knowledge.  I am a pizza NooB but have had enough semi successful efforts and many many more disappointments enough to realize that I've been recklessly throwing things together hoping they'll work.   Now I can see more clearly what I've been doing wrong thanks to the information here.  One small question.  I assume you live in Texas, and wonder where you have 65°F temps for fermentation?  Do you have a cellar or some temperature controller switch on a refrigerator you use? 

Also wondering if you can point to a primer on sourdough culture maintenance and management. I find it difficult.

Thanks!

TD
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 20, 2013, 06:01:34 PM
TXCraig,

Thank you for your shared knowledge.  I am a pizza NooB but have had enough semi successful efforts and many many more disappointments enough to realize that I've been recklessly throwing things together hoping they'll work.   Now I can see more clearly what I've been doing wrong thanks to the information here.  One small question.  I assume you live in Texas, and wonder where you have 65įF temps for fermentation?  Do you have a cellar or some temperature controller switch on a refrigerator you use? 

Also wondering if you can point to a primer on sourdough culture maintenance and management. I find it difficult.

Thanks!

TD

Here is pretty much how I do everything I do: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,20479.0.html (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,20479.0.html)

Specifically, how I maintain the temp is the second link on that page or here -> http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,18509.msg179991.html#msg179991 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,18509.msg179991.html#msg179991)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: iRobertO on July 23, 2013, 02:58:08 AM
A question with regard to 24 hrs.. If I had a choice to do 8 hrs bulk and 16 hrs balled or vice versa, would I want to do the shorter balled version?

iRobertO
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on July 23, 2013, 10:22:12 AM
A question with regard to 24 hrs.. If I had a choice to do 8 hrs bulk and 16 hrs balled or vice versa, would I want to do the shorter balled version?

iRobertO

It's personal preference. AOTBE, the longer in balls, the easier it is going to be to open. I like 24 hours. most folks would benefit from more than 24 hours in balls. Some people like less because they want a bit more elastic dough.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: breffni on August 23, 2013, 01:17:14 PM
Hey Craig, I had a similar question (and thanks) to Everlasts:

Craig, thanks for posting this. Your generosity in sharing information continually blows me away. Per the Multiple Stage Starter Prediction Model, if you were to bulk ferment at 65F for 24 hours, then ball and ferment for another 24 hours at 65F, then proof for 3 hours at 75F, the model calls for 0.6% starter. Don't you usually recommend 1.3% for this fermentation schedule? Am I overlooking something here?

Damian  

I have been using your method of approx. 1.3% starter, 60% hydration, 24h bulk ~65-66F, 24h ball 65-66F, then a couple hours around 80F and been very happy with the results.
I am probably using the Multiple Stage model incorrectly, but if plug in 48h @ 65F and 3 h @ 80F, it tells me I should only be using 0.5% starter.
Alternatively, if plug in only 48h @ 65F, it has 1.1% starter so closer to the 1.3%.
Should the last couple hours bringing the dough up to temp be ignored from the equation?

Thanks,
John
 
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 23, 2013, 01:34:05 PM
Maybe - maybe not. There are too many variables to give you a definite answer. The purpose of the model is to come up with a close starting point. In many cases, a little bit of tweaking will be required.

I've found that my 1.3% culture dough is typically ready in 48h at 64-65F, and it also has a very long (8+ hour) window of usability even with the temperature coming up to 80 or so - though I like to keep it down in the mid-low 70's if possible.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: breffni on August 23, 2013, 01:58:01 PM
Gotcha, thanks.
Concur on the usability window - last weekend had a few hour delay in expected bake starting time and the dough was outstanding even though sat in the 80's for a few extra hours.
Read this week about the pinhole trick in the lids, definitely doing that next as the lids keep popping off even in 65F bulk.

And is it correct to say that while using more starter for a shorter ferment (i.e. 12-24 hour dough) may result in a 'usable' dough, your experience has been the shorter ferment even with higher starter percentage does not develop the same flavor profile that a 48h dough will? (that was my experience when attempted an emergency starter dough)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 23, 2013, 02:11:37 PM
And is it correct to say that while using more starter for a shorter ferment (i.e. 12-24 hour dough) may result in a 'usable' dough, your experience has been the shorter ferment even with higher starter percentage does not develop the same flavor profile that a 48h dough will? (that was my experience when attempted an emergency starter dough)

I think this is true, AOTBE. And not just the flavor but the texture and appearance will be affected as well. 
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: texmex on September 14, 2013, 12:18:49 PM
Great resource.   :)
Now I know rather than just guessing that I need to leave my cold ferments in the fridge quite a bit longer when I'm not using yeast in the dough.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Mmmph on September 16, 2013, 09:56:44 AM
I used your chart this past week. It was spot on with my culture and workflow.

Thanks,
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 16, 2013, 12:11:09 PM
Thanks - yes, I've made quite a few different time/temp combinations in the 6-48 hour range and 59-79F range, and it's always very close.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 02, 2013, 09:26:14 AM
Craig Ive recently started my own starter with strong white bread flour which Ive been feeding with good results for a fortnight, I now want to switch to feeding it with Caputo is this viable and what are the pros and cons?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 02, 2013, 09:29:45 AM
Craig Ive recently started my own starter with strong white bread flour which Ive been feeding with good results for a fortnight, I now want to switch to feeding it with Caputo is this viable and what are the pros and cons?

Personally, I don't see any need to feed it Caputo. It's certainly not a bad choice. I don't because it's not particularly easy for me to get Caputo. My intuition is that you won't see any difference in your final dough unless perhaps you are using a high % of culture in the formula, and maybe not even then. I've always fed mine KAAP or KABF.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 02, 2013, 10:48:56 AM
Thanks Craig,

The main reason for feeding it Caputo is that I have a 25k bag and want to use it up before it perishes.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mitchjg on October 06, 2013, 05:38:44 PM
Denali.
No such thing as a stupid question....
All %'s of ingredients follow after the total(100%) flour weight.

Follow up question for clarity.  When taking 100% of the flour weight, the flour weight includes the weight of the flour in the starter, etc?

So, if you target 1000 grams of flour and 60% hydration, and 10% starter, then you would use:

950 g flour
550 g water
100 g starter (100% hydration)

Is that your intent?

Thanks,
Mitch
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 06, 2013, 06:19:10 PM
Are you asking me?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mitchjg on October 06, 2013, 06:36:35 PM
Are you asking me?

Craig:

Yep.  Sorry for the confusion.
It only makes a slight difference in total hydration (unless one is using very large quantities of starter), but I wanted to know how you thought about it.

- Mitch
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 06, 2013, 06:55:39 PM
For purposes of this model, I would not include the flour and water in the culture in the overall formula. You should probably do that for purposes of making dough if have a particular hydration in mind particularly if you are using a large amount of starter or if it is very wet or dry. But in general, I think the timing given here is pretty close if you just look at uture in relation to the rest of the flour, and that the main point of the model - to give you a good guess at the starting point.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 07, 2013, 01:53:03 PM
Craig,

When is the best time to make my dough with the culture, is it an hour or two after I have fed the starter whilst its still bubbling and active? Or should it be left till it calms back down then used?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 07, 2013, 02:10:30 PM
PS.

Whats does all this hydration talk mean Ive not figured this out? My starter has always been fed 70g flour along with 70ml warm water, how does this equate hydration wise??
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 07, 2013, 03:20:15 PM
Craig,

When is the best time to make my dough with the culture, is it an hour or two after I have fed the starter whilst its still bubbling and active? Or should it be left till it calms back down then used?

Assuming it's good and healthy to start with, I like to feed it and then use it right after it peaks and just starts to fall - or within a few hours after. The window is pretty big. I would call it fully active at that point This is the basic assumption of the table. Realistically, it doesn't matter at what point you use it so long as you use it at about the same point every time - being consistent is the best way to get consistent, predictable results.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 07, 2013, 03:24:45 PM
PS.

Whats does all this hydration talk mean Ive not figured this out? My starter has always been fed 70g flour along with 70ml warm water, how does this equate hydration wise??

Hydration could refer to either the hydration of the dough or the hydration of the starter. Your starter would be 100% hydration. The starter hydration may or may not impact the dough. Using tiny quantities like I do (1.1 - 1.7%), I don't think it matters. Using large quantities, it might impact the overall characteristics of the dough and you might need to take it into account in your formula such as is done with this dough calculator: http://www.pizzamaking.com/preferment_calculator.html (http://www.pizzamaking.com/preferment_calculator.html). For example, if you wanted a 55% hydration dough and added 30% of the flour weight in 100% hydrated starter, you can see how the hydration of the final dough could be well over 55% unless you adjust the formula flour or water so that the final formula comes in at 55%HR.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 07, 2013, 03:54:18 PM
Thanks Craig,

I think Im getting this, I will mull over it and probably have a few more questions for you once its absorbed!

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 08, 2013, 07:03:41 AM
Hydration could refer to either the hydration of the dough or the hydration of the starter. Your starter would be 100% hydration. The starter hydration may or may not impact the dough. Using tiny quantities like I do (1.1 - 1.7%), I don't think it matters. Using large quantities, it might impact the overall characteristics of the dough and you might need to take it into account in your formula such as is done with this dough calculator: http://www.pizzamaking.com/preferment_calculator.html. (http://www.pizzamaking.com/preferment_calculator.html.) For example, if you wanted a 55% hydration dough and added 30% of the flour weight in 100% hydrated starter, you can see how the hydration of the final dough could be well over 55% unless you adjust the formula flour or water so that the final formula comes in at 55%HR.

Craig,

On this point would you then add only 25% of original the % of water to make the 55%.

PS. The link didnt work!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: deb415611 on October 08, 2013, 07:16:39 AM
http://www.pizzamaking.com/preferment_calculator.html (http://www.pizzamaking.com/preferment_calculator.html)



PS. The link didnt work!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Pete-zza on October 08, 2013, 08:18:26 AM
PS. The link didnt work!
I fixed the link in Craig's post. The periods were inside of the tags instead of outside. The system software does this. The solution is to use the blue globe icon in the second row in the Reply mode. It is the first icon, to the left of the email icon.

Peter
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 08, 2013, 08:45:22 AM
Craig,

On this point would you then add only 25% of original the % of water to make the 55%.

PS. The link didnt work!

There are several ways you could get there, but the point is that you might have to make adjustments. Also, a final dough at any given hydration may handle very differently if it includes a large amount of starter (probably feeling a lot more 'wet') as opposed to one that doesn't. I'm sure you've noticed how the viscosity of the starter decreases as the yeast and bacteria work on it breaking down the protein.

The bottom line is there is no substitute for experience. You have to get your hands dirty and see how things behave and react and learn how to make the necessary adjustments to get what you want.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 08, 2013, 09:13:09 AM
Peter/Deb thanks for the fix on the link, will have to fire up the laptop to suss it out as the calculator isn't compatible with iPads.

Craig you're spot on with the fact that there is no substitute for experience, getting stuck in and making pies regularly is my aim over the autumn and winter months, unfortunately living in Scotland doesn't provide a large window of opportunity to use my WFO so I'm giving serious consideration to purchasing an Effeuno p134h electric oven to alllow more practice.

Just need to persuade the wife...
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 09, 2013, 02:26:35 PM
I decide to go for it today and prepared my first dough using my (3 week old) starter based roughly on the work flow from you're garage recipe, went for 7.5% starter based on the PFT table as I wanted to be using it in 29 hours, Dough was a little wetter than normal probably influenced by the 49g starter as you predicted yesterday but well within manageable limits, once kneaded, rested, folded etc the dough was smooth like normal just a wee bit sticky when balling it.

I'm pretty confident this bake is going to be successful within the limits afforded by a domestic oven.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 15, 2013, 04:02:51 AM
And here are the results of my efforts, this my dough after 29 hours as I'm about to open it I think I may have let it go a little to long, any comments welcome!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 15, 2013, 04:04:04 AM
Side shot!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 15, 2013, 06:33:13 AM
From the bottom, it looks about like mine does when ready. It's hard to tell from the side as I think you are using a smaller container than I do.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 15, 2013, 07:26:46 AM
Hi Craig,

Everything about the dough felt good I just wasn't sure if there were too many bubbles, for size comparison here are a few pics!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 15, 2013, 08:37:25 AM
The containers I use are 1.5" larger diameter. As such, I see a lot less of the edge.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: swatson on October 16, 2013, 03:56:30 AM
Hi Craig,

Thanks for the feedback. I was delighted with how the pies turned out particularly the first one after that my domestic oven loses to much heat and I dont get the same results.

Both pies are cherry tomatoes, mushroom, basil and mozzarella. I think you'll be able to tell which was the first in the oven!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: communist on November 06, 2013, 10:42:01 AM
5% Ischia 60 degrees.  Baking after work at 6PM.  Pics at 36 & 39 hours
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: communist on November 06, 2013, 09:37:22 PM
Ischia at 45 hours not active enough, set at 70 for two hours pics shows ok activity but needed dinner. Baked crust very tender, but not enough oven spring - will try again soon
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: JD on November 06, 2013, 09:43:56 PM
Ischia at 45 hours not active enough, set at 70 for two hours pics shows ok activity but needed dinner. Baked crust very tender, but not enough oven spring - will try again soon

Do you know why you were lacking activity?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: communist on November 07, 2013, 06:59:13 AM
Do you know why you were lacking activity?
I can only guess that Ischia at 60 degrees is sluggish, or when I added it to my dough on initial mixing it was not active enough - I took it from the fridge & fed it and after 90 minutes it had risen about an inch.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 07, 2013, 08:52:07 AM
The chart calls for 49 hours. Another 2 hours at 70, and you might have been pretty close to ideal and right at 49 hours. This why I always say to start watching it at least 8 hours before you need the dough so you can adjust the temperature up or down in those last 8 hours to have it right where you want it, when you want it.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mitchjg on November 07, 2013, 09:19:48 AM
Ischia at 45 hours not active enough, set at 70 for two hours pics shows ok activity but needed dinner. Baked crust very tender, but not enough oven spring - will try again soon

I am wondering if I may be systematically under fermenting a bit.  This dough looks pretty close (to me) to the picture of a dough "about ready" and not as developed as the "the most rise I want."  I usually bake when it looks "about ready."  Should I be rising more (as in "the most rise" or almost there)?

http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,20477.msg202048.html#msg202048 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,20477.msg202048.html#msg202048)

thanks,
Mitch
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 07, 2013, 09:28:54 AM
I am wondering if I may be systematically under fermenting a bit.  This dough looks pretty close (to me) to the picture of a dough "about ready" and not as developed as the "the most rise I want."  I usually bake when it looks "about ready."  Should I be rising more (as in "the most rise" or almost there)?

http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,20477.msg202048.html#msg202048 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,20477.msg202048.html#msg202048)

thanks,
Mitch

I think it's personal preference. I've had some great pies that are way more risen than what I do. I almost never let my do go to "the most rise I want." I'm generally about in the middle between them.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mitchjg on November 07, 2013, 09:32:56 AM
Thanks Craig, that helps.  I will push things a bit further next time I bake and check it out. - M
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: communist on November 07, 2013, 10:14:43 AM
The chart calls for 49 hours. Another 2 hours at 70, and you might have been pretty close to ideal and right at 49 hours. This why I always say to start watching it at least 8 hours before you need the dough so you can adjust the temperature up or down in those last 8 hours to have it right where you want it, when you want it.
Good point.  Unfortunately I was at work and was unable to watch the dough as closely as I would have liked.   Mark
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Antonella on December 02, 2013, 03:56:59 PM
Hi craig,

am pretty new here at this Forum ...

easy and simple question for you :)

The calculated predicted starter in % you have to take off the amount of flour or water you use ?

e.g. you come up with 10% required for your selected time/temperature based on 1 kg of flour... you need 100gr of starter, right ?

In advance, thanks craig for the beginner answer :)

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 02, 2013, 04:13:46 PM
Hi craig,

am pretty new here at this Forum ...

easy and simple question for you :)

The calculated predicted starter in % you have to take off the amount of flour or water you use ?

e.g. you come up with 10% required for your selected time/temperature based on 1 kg of flour... you need 100gr of starter, right ?

In advance, thanks craig for the beginner answer :)

Yes, it is calculated as a % of the formula flour.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Antonella on December 04, 2013, 05:25:51 AM
Thz Craig ,

Will show you mine results ;)


Ciao

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: stevehollx on December 15, 2013, 08:30:33 PM
I stumbled upon a sourdough calculator for bread tonight.  I figured this would be a good place to share it, in case there is reusable collateral there:
http://www.wraithnj.com/breadpics/rise_time_table/bread_model_bwraith.htm (http://www.wraithnj.com/breadpics/rise_time_table/bread_model_bwraith.htm)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Qarl on January 05, 2014, 10:01:05 AM
Just started 30-32 hour dough at 62 degrees using 10% hydration.  will post results tomorrow night.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Pete-zza on January 05, 2014, 11:08:05 AM
Just started 30-32 hour dough at 62 degrees using 10% hydration.  will post results tomorrow night.
Karl,

Is there an error with the hydration number or is that the amount of starter?

Peter
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Qarl on January 05, 2014, 12:58:05 PM
Ummm.  % starter.  LOL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Serpentelli on January 05, 2014, 09:01:20 PM
Mitch (mitchjg) asked me a question about using the data in the model to calculate the effects of multiple time/temp combinations on the same dough. Looking at the model, it occured to me that you can easily do just that with the model exactly as it is. I added a few more columns (starter%) to the chart so there is more data to work with (less extrapolation needed). I also stripped off the red zones. The data itself and model are unchanged. You could use this same technique with the chart on the first page of this thread. The charts below are optimized to make it even easier.


Example 1
Say you made a batch of dough w/1.5% starter that normally takes 48 hours at 64F to be ready. Being that it is winter and cooler in the house that normal, your fermentation set up (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,18509.msg179991.html#msg179991 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,18509.msg179991.html#msg179991)) is running cooler than normal - 60F rather than 64F. How could you adjust your workflow to have the dough ready on time? Perhaps you could move it to the oven with the light on which is holding at about 80F, but for how long? This is the problem I faced over the past couple days.

We know from the model that 1.5% starter @ 60F should take ~69hours (1 below). I fermented the bulk for 24 hours at 60F. I then balled it and put it back into the box at 60F for another 12 hours Ė a total of 36 hours at 60F. According to the model, I should need another 33 at 60F (2), but the model tells us a whole lot more than that. Every data point up and down that column represents a time/temperature combination that will finish the dough. All you have to do is slide down to 80F, and you see that dough will be ready in 9 hours at 80F.

I hadnít thought about doing this when I made my dough Thursday night Ė nor on Saturday morning when I moved it to the oven with the light on. It turns out however, that my results were spot-on what the model would have predicted.

IMPORTANT: Keep in mind that dough doesnít instantly go from 60F to 80F. Actually, my oven with the light on is closer to 85F, but the average dough temp over the 9 hours was probably around 80F Ė just a gut feel adjustment. You might need to make adjustments recognizing this sort of thing. The shorter the window of time at a temperature, the more important the adjustment becomes as the dough temperature transition time becomes a much larger portion of the total time.


I recently used this creative method for using Craig's model for multiple fermentation temps. I was flabbergasted that it worked! Perfectly!!

And it reminded me how lucky we are to have guys like TxCraig --- and so many other brilliant members --- on this forum. Thanks again Craig!

John K
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 06, 2014, 08:51:08 AM
Happy to hear the good results John.

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Qarl on January 06, 2014, 06:36:35 PM
Camaboldi sourdough starter

60% hydration
2% salt
Caputo 00
10% starter

12 hours at 62 degrees bulk.  Recall
18 hours at 62 degrees balled

Looks about just right!

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Qarl on January 06, 2014, 07:27:42 PM
Very happy with the results
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 06, 2014, 09:21:02 PM
Looks great.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Serpentelli on January 07, 2014, 12:01:43 PM
Ditto Karl,

Great looking dough both pre- and post-bake!

John K
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: anverc on February 24, 2014, 03:09:02 PM
I made a web-app timer utility using Craig's models.  I moved my comment about it to a new thread: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=30444 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=30444)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Chicago Bob on February 25, 2014, 01:29:29 AM
I started working on a smartphone accessable web-app using Craig's data and some reversing of the math used in the googledocs spreadsheet.

i got to the point where I have something that you can use to time your dough proofing after you've made it.  After getting this far i'm wondering if it isn't actually very useful and what might make it more useable - perhaps i can take Craig's %starter prediction and add it as a separate mode on top of this.


Here's the web-app:

http://ssqpm.makebendrink.com/ (http://ssqpm.makebendrink.com/)

try it out on your computers and smart phones (i've tested with win7-chrome and ios-safari).  it's basically an eggtimer that does all the sourdough prediction lookups for you.  I think this is probably only useful in the cases that Craig lays out, where your proofer isn't running at the same temp that you are used to.  Or if you're like me and you don't plan ahead very well, at least you can now track what you're doing :D

this saves the data on your device.  If we end up making it useful enough I can have it back up to the cloud... and maybe we can get it added to this site. 


how to use it:
- when you first go to the site (or after you reset your data) it will ask you what starter percent you are using.
- next it will ask you to add a time stamp and temperature.  If you just mixed your dough, just click the "NOW" button, modify your temp and click Add
- you can add new timestamps in the future by clicking the Add Timestamp button
- you can modify old timestamps by clicking on them
- as an added bonus, since i'm supporting Celcius, you can mix and match your temperature readings if you want to.  it will save the last C/F selection you've made

- when you re-visit the site, it should keep your data around (uses html5 client data storage, so it requires your browser to support html5)
 - it also saves the last temp you used, in-case you never switch the temperature up much you won't have to modify that often.
Very clever/neat.  8)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Tampa on February 25, 2014, 08:48:46 AM
Nicely done anverc!  Thanks for sharing this and giving a nod to Craig on the screen.
Dave
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: anverc on February 25, 2014, 09:39:40 AM
Nicely done anverc!  Thanks for sharing this and giving a nod to Craig on the screen.
Dave

thanks! without all his research/data/math i wouldn't have been able to make this.  I don't understand the math at all, i'm just blindly using it (even to the extent that some of my variable names make no sense).
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Pete-zza on February 25, 2014, 02:18:12 PM
should i move this to a new thread? i don't want to steal Craig's thread, it's kinda burried here, and i'd like to have somewhere where people can post ideas to build this thing up.
anverc,

I think that would be a good idea. Rather than try to carve out pieces of this thread, you might just start a new thread even if some repetition of old material is needed.

Peter
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Adrian on March 28, 2014, 01:24:12 AM
Hi TXCraig1,

you did an amazing job! In bread making, there are very little breads that are directly (0 step) built. But for pizza it really seems to be the way to go. On the other hand, adding 20% or more of a recently refreshed starter can already be seen as 1 step built.

From my experience, the relation between your numbers seems to be very accurate, I'm amazed. For times under 12 hours I think I just have to apply a constant factor of 0.8 when having a a very active starter. I'm not sure if this holds for longer times (where I don't have much experience). When reviving old starters, it seems to be non linear (spores waking up?); when comparing just one feeding cycle of a recently "captured" starter to an heavily used one, it seems more linear.
This calls for tests. (And me trying to understand the exact model behind you calculation).


I've seen the author where parts of your model is based on his research also is co-author of the ("the") German compendium about sourdough :)
I know, for pizza making it is not an issue, but it'd be great to have the hydration modelled in as well for bread making. If I just had more time ;)

>>> 1/6/13 Here is a link to a spreadsheet that automates the calculation of starter% given multiple fermentation stages: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0) more details here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,22649.msg230734.html#msg230734 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,22649.msg230734.html#msg230734)

One thing I've noticed: When "calculating" centigrade, G5 has a fixed number. I think it should be:
=(D5-32)*5/9

Thanks a lot for you effort generating this table and making it public!
Adrian
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on March 29, 2014, 03:05:26 AM
I fixed the spreadsheet formula. Thanks for pointing it out.

I hope you find it helpful. It's not intended to be the be-all-end-all, but rather to give people a good place to start from which can be quite a daunting challenge for anyone departing from a recipe the first few times. Same with the bakers yeast model here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg285982#msg285982 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg285982#msg285982)

CL
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: phokingood on May 06, 2014, 02:48:09 PM
Thanks for all of the amazing information in this thread.  I've been cooking Neapolitan Style pizzas for the last three years and this is my first attempt at using the culture.  I was getting a decent product before but am excited to see the results.

Much thanks to TXCraig1!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: biondanonima on June 03, 2014, 02:39:23 PM
Thank you all SO much for this incredibly brilliant thread.  I have been winging it with my levain culture for quite some time and getting decent results, but this will really help me pinpoint just what I need to do to attain perfection!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Donjo911 on July 21, 2014, 03:03:22 PM
This chart along with a method and tools to control the temperature provided for a absolutely predictable outcome.

As a novice, I would have continued to make guesses at dough readiness and time to bake with pallatable results but not great results.  Discussed throughout this and other threads is the subject of why one may get better feeling and tasting dough from a warm vs. cold ferment.  After about two years of making dough using refridgerated ferments with continual tweaks yet never really getting dough that opened easily, maintained shape, and baked to what I was looking to achieve consistently.

Without the data to create dough with the correct percentage of starter and ability to control the temperature of dough fermentation over a specified time, makes using sourdough starter something you can only do if you had the luxury of watching your dough and then baking at the optimal time for the dough - not for you/your guests.  It's a significant time saver and provides one with confidence to be able to make dough on a schedule with almost guaranteed results.

Evidence is not only just the good (all the above) but the predictable bad too:  Knowing when the dough will be overproofed or collapse.  Cause and effect  I made more dough than I needed. It overproofed on schedule. The last few days of experiments proved all of this to me.  I hope others read all of the threads on this topic and consider non-refridgerated cultured yeast/SD dough as a real obtainable option with only a little effort - thanks to Craig.

Thanks Craig,
Cheers,
Don


Some of the pizza's made with this dough are here:  Re: Using beer in your pizza dough (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=17415.msg326622#msg326622)  Reply 921
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on July 21, 2014, 03:24:35 PM
I'm happy to hear it is working well for you!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: trixaddict on September 27, 2014, 02:21:18 PM
Craig,
First, I'll be honest and say that I have not followed the predictive model to the letter. Had I followed the spreadsheet to the letter, it was suggesting that I use 3.0% starter for the following rates of ferment: 36 hours at 58 degrees, 6 hours at 64 degrees, and 30 hours at 55 degrees.

I only had 1.7% starter in my dough with 62% hydration and 2.8% salt using Caputo blue. I have very large bubbles and more than doubled in size. 1st thing I'm doing is getting larger containers, but did I miss something? Seems like the dough ought not to have blown up so much? It is a less than a month old ischia culture.

Thank you,
Tim
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 27, 2014, 02:56:00 PM
How are you controlling the temperature. That fermentation schedule seem a bit random. How did it come about?

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: trixaddict on September 27, 2014, 06:07:28 PM
You're right. I have a half gallon of ice that keeps my cooler at 58 degrees for 30 hours reliably. After that, it will rise to 64 degrees in 6 hours. This was unintentional.

The extensibility of the dough was too much. The dough was easy to tear. Super flavor but difficult to work with. I'm going to chalk this up to further hands on learning.

I wanted to experiment with an extra day ferment to see what the difference would be. I was surprised the calculator called for more starter.

Tim
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: chrisf on October 17, 2014, 11:38:13 AM
Craig,

Thanks much for the chart. I've been using it the past couple of weeks and it really allowed me to control the process much better. I used to be at the mercy of my starter but now I'm in command  >:D

Understanding the relationships and how to use them has freed me up and given me confidence. Yesterday I made the best loaf of bread I've ever made and was totally confident in the time it took to fully ferment. Tonight I will be making pizza from dough I mixed yesterday morning when I mixed the bread dough. It's for a party and I'm confident it will turn out good.
chris
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Gluten4punishment on November 02, 2014, 08:32:26 AM
Thanks Craig, this chart is awesome.  How did you figure all of that out?  It seems very accurate, yesterday I made 2 balls in the morning and used the chart. 

Only problem I found was I didn't account for the extra water in the starter and it came out wetter than I like, it was 15% starter.

Here is my recipe
200g KAAP
200g KABF
1t salt
15% active fed starter
5% olive oil
57% water

I wanted a 62% hydration but I think it came out more like 67% due to the 60g of starter
I balled them and placed in pantry (72deg) for 11 hours and they more than doubled right on time.

Now they are in the fridge and will take out and open them up later, will add photos when done.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 02, 2014, 09:25:12 AM
Thanks Craig, this chart is awesome.  How did you figure all of that out?

Basically, it's my and a couple other folks test data extrapolated with the results published in Gšnzle et al. (1998) http://aem.asm.org/content/64/7/2616.full.pdf
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: David Esq. on November 02, 2014, 12:03:25 PM
There is an app for all of this. I posted a thread about it last week. Would be curious for Craig's take on it if he has an iPhone.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: blu_in_green on November 03, 2014, 08:34:19 PM
I noticed the google doc seems locked now (or by invite only)? I sent a request to be added. I sure hope we don't lose this resource; it has been such a blessing for a year or so since I've started using it!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 03, 2014, 10:32:59 PM
I don't know why it changed. Try it again. It should be open.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Donjo911 on November 04, 2014, 08:50:19 AM
You may consider printing it and having a local copy shop laminate it for you.  It's handy to have in the kitchen or where you mix dough for quick reference. Also, if laminated -its easy to wipe off if you get anything on it.
Cheers,
Don
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Reek on November 06, 2014, 03:29:20 PM
Mitch came up with a great methodology for using the model data to compute starter% given multiple fermentation stages. This way you don't have to backtrack through the chart; you just plug in your numbers. The chart itself is still a great tool for making changes on the fly as I described above.

I set the model up so that up to 10 stages could be entered, not that anyone would do a 10 stage ferment per-se but rather so there would be the flexibility to more smoothly model the transitions between temperatures if desired. You don't have to jump straight from room temp to 64F if you don't want to, you could make an educated guess and stick in a couple intermediate temps and times if you like. However, this isn't necessary. Unused stages have no impact.

In the yellow cells, simply enter the time and temperature for each stage. For an unused stage, just make the time 0. It doesn't matter what the temperature is if the time is 0. The model will update the predicted starter quantity as you make changes. The other calculation the model shows is how much of the fermentation is occurring at each stage. This is the percent of flora activity not the percent of time. Enter a low temperature and a long time as one of the stages as an example, and you will see how it contributes a relatively small amount of the total fermentation.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0

book mark
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Reek on November 06, 2014, 03:47:10 PM
bkmrk
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mitchjg on November 06, 2014, 04:01:17 PM
book mark

I think the stuff  below row 19 in that spreadsheet does not belong there.  Someone came along and started modifying the spreadsheet and left it behind.  I think the same is true for the columns to the right of column H.  I would recommend you download a copy and use that.  That way, you are not at risk if something goes wrong or is accidentally changed with the web posting.

- Mitch
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Omidz on December 05, 2014, 05:39:48 PM
Craig I know you have had this up a while I just revisited it and it is so awesome. can't wait to test it out. Question on your MSSP modle. below you have different hydrations listed and one of them is highlighed yellow like the cells designed for input. What are those used for? Thank you.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 05, 2014, 05:58:53 PM
Craig I know you have had this up a while I just revisited it and it is so awesome. can't wait to test it out. Question on your MSSP modle. below you have different hydrations listed and one of them is highlighed yellow like the cells designed for input. What are those used for? Thank you.

Somebody added that. I don't think it means anything. For the record, I don't maintain that spreadsheet. I have no idea if it even works any more. I would not trust it without carefully checking it first.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Omidz on December 05, 2014, 06:00:09 PM
Got it I'll used use the chart thanks.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mbrulato on December 05, 2014, 06:03:23 PM
Somebody added that. I don't think it means anything. For the record, I don't maintain that spreadsheet. I have no idea if it even works any more. I would not trust it without carefully checking it first.

I can attest to the fact that it still works well, Craig  ;D
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 05, 2014, 06:14:18 PM
Are the formula cells still protected so that they can't be changed?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mbrulato on December 05, 2014, 06:27:33 PM
I'm not sure if they're still protected Craig, because I printed it out the first time I used it and haven't gone back to it in about a year.  I like to have the hard copy handy in my kitchen because I use it for bread as well as pizza.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mitchjg on December 05, 2014, 06:28:23 PM
Looks to me like everything in the model itself (rows 2-19, columns B-H) is properly protected.  There is just someone's formulas and doodling to the right and below. 

It has been a long time so I do not remember offhand, but I think you (Craig) own the google drive spreadsheet, etc.  If there is anything you want to me to do to help, let me know but I think if it the stuff "right and below" were deleted and then everything outside the table was locked, it would be fine.  I think there is no harm, in terms of constraining someone, because they can download it to their own computer and that version should be unlocked.

- Mitch
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mkevenson on December 05, 2014, 06:36:00 PM
. For the record, I don't maintain that spreadsheet.

Craig in Nov, I believe, you posted that the spreadsheet had been updated. I assumed you had done that, but now?

Mark
 
PS. I see, I am in the SD spreadsheet and not the commercial yeast spread sheet. :o Please disregard my foolishness. :-[
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 05, 2014, 06:40:35 PM
I'm not sure if they're still protected Craig, because I printed it out the first time I used it and haven't gone back to it in about a year.  I like to have the hard copy handy in my kitchen because I use it for bread as well as pizza.

I wasn't talking about the chart. I'm sure it's fine. I was talking about the on-line spreadsheet.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 05, 2014, 07:00:57 PM
I cleaned it up. It looks OK.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mitchjg on December 05, 2014, 07:07:24 PM
I cleaned it up. It looks OK.

Looks so neat and tidy now.   ;D  - Thanks
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: bxtzd3 on January 13, 2015, 11:21:22 AM
ok so if i get from the spreadsheet i need, lets say 10% starter. does this mean to reduce my 1700g flour by 170g to accommodate the starter? or leave it as is.
Title: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: jsaras on January 13, 2015, 11:55:04 AM
No.  Firstly, what is the hydration of your starter?  What is the desired overall hydration of your formula?  The preferment calculator on the website will get you there.  The "tricky" part is paying attention to the "preferment's percentage of water" i.e., it's NOT the same thing as hydration as expressed in bakers percentages.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 13, 2015, 12:13:36 PM
ok so if i get from the spreadsheet i need, lets say 10% starter. does this mean to reduce my 1700g flour by 170g to accommodate the starter? or leave it as is.

It doesn't necessarily mean either. You would probably never take out the starter weight in flour because a lot of the starter weight is water. Assuming your starter is more hydrated than your dough, and it almost always is, the more starter you add, the more hydrated your dough becomes. At what point does it matter is really up to you. Add the starter flour and water into your formula and calculate the hydration and decide if you need to make any adjustments. I typically don't worry about adjusting the formula flour. For me, adding 10% starter would only increases the formula hydration by 1% or so.

This might help: http://www.pizzamaking.com/preferment-calculator.html
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: IIFYMpizza on June 27, 2015, 07:43:46 AM
Ok, guys so i waited one week for my starter to mature and i belive its ready, as it becomes alive soon after i feed it ie doubles in size in about 2-3 hours. i calculated my starter % for RT rise- 70F in my house 34h. The spredsheet calls for 0.9%, now i start to ask myself if such a small amount of starter can make any difference compared to commercial yeast. Note that i use electric home oven as i wait for my p134h to arrive. What you guys think, any chance for better tasting pie?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: David Esq. on June 27, 2015, 08:06:11 AM
Taste is subjective. It should have more flavor. Whether better or not, you will have to tell us!  It may also be more digestible. But you can make great dough with or without sourdough for sure. To some of the benefits without it, use a poolish. But extra steps can be a burden.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 27, 2015, 08:55:20 AM
The spredsheet calls for 0.9%, now i start to ask myself if such a small amount of starter can make any difference compared to commercial yeast.

You are inoculating your dough with lactic acid bacteria in addition to a different genus if yeast as compared to commercial yeast. There will be dozens, if not hundreds of byproducts of fermentation not present in commercial yeast dough. It will taste different. How different varies from person to person as does which you like better. As David noted above, taste is subjective.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: IIFYMpizza on August 04, 2015, 06:01:57 AM

Hey guys,
just a quick question, i feed my starter every 24h and keep it on my kitchen counter. I used Craigs model to calculate my % for my dough and i noticed that if i use 1.3% for a 24h 72F rise the dough does not get airy as much as it does whenever i use CY, so i increased my SD up to 4% and and got better results but i am still far from texture i get with CY both with raw dough and finished product, baked pie seems much more dense, not so fluffy, tastewise its much better tho. Does it mean that my SD is still not active enough? Should i feed it more/less often? Should i change the flour i feed it with? I use caputo pizzeria to feed my starter. Thanks as always.
Jan
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: vtsteve on August 04, 2015, 07:53:49 AM
I would try a warmer bulk fermentation.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: tbear on September 07, 2015, 10:33:19 AM
Hi All,

I'm getting conflicting data from the prediction chart and the Prediction model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0
One shows under 3% and the other over 3%.

My schedule always me time to bulk ferment 24 hours at 65F, then ball for for 3 hours at 65F, then finish rising 5 hours at 77F (total 8 hours balled). Which chart is accurate and is this a good strategy for bulk/ball times/temps? I prefer 65F, because I keep my starter in same fridge at 65F and feed after mixing in the morning and then again before bed.

Thanks so much!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mitchjg on September 07, 2015, 11:05:05 AM
I do not think you are operating either one (although I do not know for certain what you did with the chart) quite right.  I get the same result with both (allowing for round-off).

1 The google docs spreadsheet.
You typed in [email protected] followed by [email protected]  This yielded 2.92%.  However, you state that you need 27 hours at 65 (24+3).  Using 27 instead will yield 2.66%.

2. I do not know what you did, but here is how to "operate" the chart.  Start at the bottom right, as you did, finding 77 degrees and 5 hours.  Move up to the 65 degree row (as you seem to have done).  Now you land on 12.  Add the 27 hours to the 12, yielding 39 hours.  Go left until you reach 39.  That lands you in the 2.5% column.

So, the spreadsheet yields 2.66% and the chart yields 2.5%.  Again, that difference is just roundoff between using a chart with nice whole hours all the way through and the spreadsheet which is using the underlying formula.

Regardless, please keep in mind that the chart is a "starting point."  Your results may vary depending on things like the starter you are actually using and how fresh it is when you start.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: tbear on September 07, 2015, 12:32:45 PM
Ahh I see, I started counting the hours back from the 40% column. I'm a dummy  :-[ Thanks!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 07, 2015, 01:16:46 PM
As Mitch noted, the table and the spreadsheet are consistent. Here is a quick refresher for people new to the table.

To calculate the predicted culture quantity for a 2-stage ferment at different temps:

1) Start where you want to finish. I this case, that's a second stage of 5 hours at 77F.
2) Go up the column to the row temperature of your intended first stage and make note of the time in that cell. In this case, it's the 65F row, so the time to note is 12 hours.
3) To that time, add how many hours you want at that temperature. In this case, we want 25 hours at 65F, so 12 hours + 25 hours = 37 hours.
4) Go left across the second stage temperature row until you find that time. In this case, we find 37 hours.
5) Finally, go straight up to the top of the table and you will find the predicted culture quantity. In this case, it's 3%.

In many cases, you will need to interpolate a little.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Bert on December 11, 2015, 10:00:18 PM
I have been wanting to combine the Craig's spread sheet with a baker % calculator... finally I had some free time to do it... check it out, some may find it handy... Let me know if you have any comments, I will try to incorporate as time permit

http://www.mightypizzaoven.com/sourdough-bread-or-pizza-recipe-creator/
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: texmex on December 19, 2015, 07:47:07 PM
I have been wanting to combine the Craig's spread sheet with a baker % calculator... finally I had some free time to do it... check it out, some may find it handy... Let me know if you have any comments, I will try to incorporate as time permit

http://www.mightypizzaoven.com/sourdough-bread-or-pizza-recipe-creator/


This is freakin' awesome.  Thank you for creating this tool.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Bert on December 20, 2015, 06:13:04 AM
This is freakin' awesome.  Thank you for creating this tool.

Thank you Reesa, I created a short version of this calculator for the experience users http://www.mightypizzaoven.com/sourdough-bread-or-pizza-recipe-creator-short-version/
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: texmex on December 20, 2015, 10:15:56 AM
Thank you Reesa, I created a short version of this calculator for the experience users http://www.mightypizzaoven.com/sourdough-bread-or-pizza-recipe-creator-short-version/

Using a tablet has prevented me from using the onsite calculation tools, so I  am very excited to see yours.  Thank you so much for taking the time to put these together.   I have bookmarked your site. 

Engineers, gotta love 'em!   :-* (my brother is an engineer, and we have the best conversations arguments) :-D
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Bert on December 21, 2015, 04:30:07 PM
Thanks Reesa, I have similar conversations with wife... ;D
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: stealthie on January 02, 2016, 03:43:34 PM
Is there an ideal temperature to ferment a starter? I did a 48 hour at 62 degrees and thought it was amazing, but Ive read a few times that closer to 70 is prime?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 02, 2016, 03:49:31 PM
Is there an ideal temperature to ferment a starter? I did a 48 hour at 62 degrees and thought it was amazing, but Ive read a few times that closer to 70 is prime?

More than one member, myself included, has had their best results in the 60-70F window with 64-65F seeming to be optimum. I'm about to post on why this may be. I'll link to it when I do.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 02, 2016, 04:57:20 PM
More than one member, myself included, has had their best results in the 60-70F window with 64-65F seeming to be optimum. I'm about to post on why this may be. I'll link to it when I do.

A science-based look at why room temperature is better: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=41039.0
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: corkd on March 31, 2016, 12:47:32 PM
I have multiple tries so far at 24, 36, & 48 hr, mainly @ 64-66 RT. This is model is really quite accurate & the results are excellent.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on March 31, 2016, 01:07:41 PM
Great to hear. Thanks for the feedback.

I use this model and the baker's yeast model frequently for 4-48 hour ferments at 60-78F and find it has very good predictability in these ranges. I've even done some at ~95F-99F (extrapolated) with good results.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Sequioa on May 03, 2016, 09:34:29 PM
Note: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Swinger-mike on September 18, 2016, 11:47:57 AM
Hello there,

I just started reading about sourdough and do kind of know the basics.

There are some steps that still confuse me how to keep the culture alive!

What if sour dough would be used every day (commerical)? do you refigerate it at all then? how would you keep it alive?


Also when you take your culture out of the fridge, do you feed it right away with water and flour and wait until it gets active and use then?

Or do you use it without feeding after it has warmed up, and feed it before you put it back in the fridge for next time?


When you feed your culture, do you take most part off and replace it with water+flour?

Also for example your culture weight was 600gr and you would use 500gr of it, what are the working steps to get it back to that mass?

I'm sorry, lots of question here, it would be great if you guys could help me!

Thanks in advance.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 18, 2016, 01:22:21 PM
My comments below in red.

Hello there,

I just started reading about sourdough and do kind of know the basics.

There are some steps that still confuse me how to keep the culture alive!

What if sour dough would be used every day (commerical)? do you refigerate it at all then? how would you keep it alive?

If you were using it every day, or every other day, there would be no need to put it in the fridge.


Also when you take your culture out of the fridge, do you feed it right away with water and flour and wait until it gets active and use then?

Or do you use it without feeding after it has warmed up, and feed it before you put it back in the fridge for next time?

There are a lot of nuances to this question. In general, if it hasn't been in the fridge too long, bring it out, feed it, and when it's active use it (may take more than one feeding to get it good and active).


When you feed your culture, do you take most part off and replace it with water+flour?

Also for example your culture weight was 600gr and you would use 500gr of it, what are the working steps to get it back to that mass?


In your example, add back 250g flour and 250g water. It will be back to full activity in a few hours.

Keep in mind that these are simple answers to overly simplified questions. There are dozens of permutations of how you can employ SD. You probably won't know the right questions to ask until you get your hands dirty a few times and start to learn what works for you.

I'm sorry, lots of question here, it would be great if you guys could help me!

Thanks in advance.

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Swinger-mike on September 19, 2016, 04:52:40 AM
Thank you craig!

So basically i just need to maintain a small part of my original starter which i can keep alive outside, or put it to sleep in the fridge and may feed it once a week (i am correct there)?

So dependant on how much starter i need, i just add as much flour+water mixture to the original part and wait until it gets active (roughly expands it's mass 2.5-3 times) and use it then.

How much would you actually feed at times?
for example your startermass was 500gr but you would feed 100gr flour+water, how much rise would you expect to find its activity peak?

Have you ever experimented to add sourdough mixed with other yeast just to enhance flavour in the dough, but still have the consistent rise  thrugh IDY or maybe fresh yeast to prevent errors through unconsistent tempertures?


Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 19, 2016, 08:57:25 AM
Thank you craig!

So basically i just need to maintain a small part of my original starter which i can keep alive outside, or put it to sleep in the fridge and may feed it once a week (i am correct there)?

I'm not sure I understand this question. At room temp, I think you probably need to feed your starter at least every other day, and every day is better. In the fridge it can go for months without being fed. The longer it's in the fridge, the longer it will take to re-activate.

So dependant on how much starter i need, i just add as much flour+water mixture to the original part and wait until it gets active (roughly expands it's mass 2.5-3 times) and use it then.

How you do it is less important than that you do it the same way every time. Being consistent is how you get predictable results.

How much would you actually feed at times?
for example your startermass was 500gr but you would feed 100gr flour+water, how much rise would you expect to find its activity peak?

When I do a maintenance feed, I add water in about the same volume as the starter, mix it up, pour out a little more than half, and then add flour to bring it back to a thick-batter consistency.

Have you ever experimented to add sourdough mixed with other yeast just to enhance flavour in the dough, but still have the consistent rise  thrugh IDY or maybe fresh yeast to prevent errors through unconsistent tempertures?

I do this with bread sometimes. Usually the SD is completely incremental to the IDY, and I just let it rise faster. I'm not sure how much difference it makes in the flavor of a 4-6 hour dough however.

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Swinger-mike on September 19, 2016, 12:45:22 PM
Your answers are much appreciated Craig, thanks a lot!

That will make my life a bit easier soon ;D it took me over a year to get a kind of consistent pie with IDY... this is going to be fun! ;D
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mmille24 on September 20, 2016, 12:09:33 PM
I've been getting good results at 8% sourdough (Cam) and 24 hours @ 62F. However the model predicts something closer to 33/34 hours.

I'd like to go back to 48 hours fermentation. Where's a good place to start?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 20, 2016, 06:53:01 PM
I've been getting good results at 8% sourdough (Cam) and 24 hours @ 62F. However the model predicts something closer to 33/34 hours.

I'd like to go back to 48 hours fermentation. Where's a good place to start?

It seems like a lot of cultures behave somewhat similarly, but there are outliers.

For me, 1.7-2.1% works well for 48 hours at 62F +/- 2F.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: molove on November 22, 2016, 11:30:15 AM

Sorry if this has been asked before.

I'm not quite sure how the hydration of the sourdough starter affects the calculation. Do the percentages of sourdough starter just refer to the flour/non-liquid part of the starter? So if the calculator recommended 1.3% SD starter ie 13g for 1kg flour do I add 26g of 100% hydration starter?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 22, 2016, 12:07:28 PM
The model doesn't consider starter hydration. Within normal ranges, I doubt it matters much. The %starter refers to the active starter (flour+water) weight divided by the formula flour weight (not including the flour in the starter). 1.3% starter for 1kg flour would be 13g starter.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: molove on November 22, 2016, 07:21:21 PM
Thanks for the quick reply, I'm looking forward to having a play.

I cooked my first successful sd pizza the other night thanks to your calculator. I put way too much starter in previous efforts resulting in over fermented dough that just tore when I came to stretch it.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Mash996 on November 22, 2016, 08:02:49 PM
The model doesn't consider starter hydration. Within normal ranges, I doubt it matters much. The %starter refers to the active starter (flour+water) weight divided by the formula flour weight (not including the flour in the starter). 1.3% starter for 1kg flour would be 13g starter.
A side note question, do you take from the dough an equal amount of the starter to keep the weight of the dough even? Like if you are adding 20 gm starter, do you mix the water and the flour together till they are combined in the mixer and then take the starter weight from that mix and then you add the starter and finish mixing?

Also, can you replace ADY & IDY measurement with same sourdough starter mix?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 22, 2016, 10:01:47 PM
A side note question, do you take from the dough an equal amount of the starter to keep the weight of the dough even? Like if you are adding 20 gm starter, do you mix the water and the flour together till they are combined in the mixer and then take the starter weight from that mix and then you add the starter and finish mixing?

Also, can you replace ADY & IDY measurement with same sourdough starter mix?

I don't. I build the starter into the formula.

You probably can't swap any form of bakers yeast with starter or vice-versa. This table can help you with ADY/IDY: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg355933#msg355933
Title: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Mash996 on November 22, 2016, 10:13:19 PM
I don't. I build the starter into the formula.

You probably can't swap any form of bakers yeast with starter or vice-versa. This table can help you with ADY/IDY: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg355933#msg355933
So I should look for a recipe that ask for a "sourdough starter" by weight to try the sour dough starter from the get go as you can not substitute ADY/IDY/CY for a starter, if I understood correctly.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 23, 2016, 08:44:46 AM
So I should look for a recipe that ask for a "sourdough starter" by weight to try the sour dough starter from the get go as you can not substitute ADY/IDY/CY for a starter, if I understood correctly.

No. That's not what I was saying. This model was originally designed to help people come up with new formulas using sourdough ("SD") however, it can also be used to convert an existing recipe from baker's yeast (ADY/IDY/CY). What you can't do is use SD as a direct replacement for baker's yeast or vice versa. x% SD ≠ x% baker's yeast.

Many baker's yeast formulas won't be super simple conversions as they are often designed for rapid fermentation (often referred to as "emergency doughs") here. These may require enough SD that the formula needs to be modified to account for the additional flour and water. I suppose you could try doing it as you suggested, but I think the better approach is to figure out the weight of flour and water in the starter you will add and simply subtract that from the formula in the first place.

If the Amount of starter is <3% or so, or maybe even a bit higher depending on the recipe, you can probably do a straight swap without impacting the final doug significantly. Generally, using sourdough requires some testing and tweaking and the more experience you get, the less tweaking you will need as your guesses will get better and you will know more of how to deal with things when they don't go exactly as planned.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Mash996 on November 23, 2016, 09:37:11 AM
No. That's not what I was saying. This model was originally designed to help people come up with new formulas using sourdough ("SD") however, it can also be used to convert an existing recipe from baker's yeast (ADY/IDY/CY). What you can't do is use SD as a direct replacement for baker's yeast or vice versa. x% SD ≠ x% baker's yeast.

Many baker's yeast formulas won't be super simple conversions as they are often designed for rapid fermentation (often referred to as "emergency doughs") here. These may require enough SD that the formula needs to be modified to account for the additional flour and water. I suppose you could try doing it as you suggested, but I think the better approach is to figure out the weight of flour and water in the starter you will add and simply subtract that from the formula in the first place.

If the Amount of starter is <3% or so, or maybe even a bit higher depending on the recipe, you can probably do a straight swap without impacting the final doug significantly. Generally, using sourdough requires some testing and tweaking and the more experience you get, the less tweaking you will need as your guesses will get better and you will know more of how to deal with things when they don't go exactly as planned.

I got it now. Thanks a lot TXCraig1 for your wealth of information.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: cassio on December 14, 2016, 07:24:04 PM
Hello guys and hello TXCraig.

I've got a interesting question.

Is a "liquid" starter (feed with 1g flour and 1g water) weaker then a more solid one (like feed with 1g flours and 0.6g water) ?

Is the starter predictive model made for the liquid or the solid one?

Thanks,
Cassio
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 14, 2016, 07:55:18 PM
My starter, and as far as I know most folks starters, are "liquid." While hydration comes into play for sure, there are a lot of other factors as well, so I don't think there is a straightforward answer to your question.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: cassio on December 14, 2016, 08:00:39 PM
My starter, and as far as I know most folks starters, are "liquid." While hydration comes into play for sure, there are a lot of other factors as well, so I don't think there is a straightforward answer to your question.

Thanks Craig!

You are the man!

See you
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: parallei on May 31, 2017, 05:35:33 PM
Just a bit more confirmation on Craig's model.  I made eight NP pies for a little get together last night.  The dough went 24 hours bulk @ 57F, 20 hours in balls @ 57F and 4 hours in balls at about 70F.  I used 7.5% starter as recommended by Craig's model and the dough was perfect. 
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on May 31, 2017, 09:55:06 PM
Thanks for the report Paul. I've been trying all sorts of different RT ferments lately, and for 60-100F, I've found both the SD and baker's yeast models to be very good. Good to see yours below 60F, I really don't have a good way to test below 60F.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: parallei on May 31, 2017, 11:00:24 PM
Thanks for the report Paul. I've been trying all sorts of different RT ferments lately, and for 60-100F, I've found both the SD and baker's yeast models to be very good. Good to see yours below 60F, I really don't have a good way to test below 60F.

I used my old refrigerator sized Eurocave wine cooler that is in my garage.  Damn thing has been sitting at 55F +- 2F (it cools and heats) for 20 plus years!  I don't know why I've only used it twice for NP SD doughs as they seem to come out just fine to my tastes.   
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: quietdesperation on June 17, 2017, 08:47:46 PM
apologies if this has been asked and answered, is there an unstated (or maybe I just missed it) underlying assumption on the composition of the starter? I have a starter that is closer to a paste, I'd estimate it's about 100 parts flour to 20 parts water. Wouldn't my starter perform very differently than a 1 to 1 flour to water starter? Or is the idea that the model provides a starting point for any composition and then it's all about individual experimentation?

thanks!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: HansB on June 17, 2017, 09:16:31 PM
"Most" formulas call for a 100% hydration starter. For that you would always add equal weights of flour and water. If a different percent is called for you can change it when you build your levain. For instance if a 66% starter is called for you can take some of your starter add 100g flour and 66g water, it will be close. Just like hydration in pizza dough.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: quietdesperation on June 17, 2017, 09:46:49 PM
thanks Hans, my question was specifically about the predictive model craig put together. is there an underlying assumptionfor the model that the hydration of the starter is 100%?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 18, 2017, 07:45:33 AM
thanks Hans, my question was specifically about the predictive model craig put together. is there an underlying assumptionfor the model that the hydration of the starter is 100%?

Yes, it assumes something near 100%HR; though I suspect lower hydrations would probably perform fairly similarly in formulas w/ lower starter %. Keep in mind that the lower the HR, the longer it will take to become fully active after feeding which is also an assumption.

Is there a reason you want it so dry?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: HansB on June 18, 2017, 08:41:09 AM

Is there a reason you want it so dry?

Good question. I don't recall seeing a formula calling for a 20% hydration starter. Be aware too that a low hydration starter favors the production of acetic acid bacteria which will give you more sour flavor.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: vtsteve on June 18, 2017, 08:55:27 AM
apologies if this has been asked and answered, is there an unstated (or maybe I just missed it) underlying assumption on the composition of the starter? I have a starter that is closer to a paste, I'd estimate it's about 100 parts flour to 20 parts water. Wouldn't my starter perform very differently than a 1 to 1 flour to water starter? Or is the idea that the model provides a starting point for any composition and then it's all about individual experimentation?

thanks!

I doubt the hydration is as low as 20% -- I just tried mixing 10g flour with 2g water, and still had dry flour at the end. Traditional Italian madre starter is 50%, and it's a very firm stiff dough.


Good question. I don't recall seeing a formula calling for a 20% hydration starter. Be aware too that a low hydration starter favors the production of acetic acid bacteria which will give you more sour flavor.

...or the activity of the starter (and the acidity) will be so low that it gets invaded. I actually tried something like this once, in preparation for drying some starter as a backup -- it got moldy on me.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: quietdesperation on June 18, 2017, 12:36:25 PM
Is there a reason you want it so dry?

no, it's just the way it was given to me. I'm going to move to 100% but the current low hydration led to me wonder if there was an inherent assumption in the model.

Be aware too that a low hydration starter favors the production of acetic acid bacteria which will give you more sour flavor.

that seems spot on hans, the person that gave it to me gets a pronounced sour flavor in his bread and english muffins that I find very appealing. He was approached to commercialize the product by a small, local bakery. When he turned it down, one of his friends with the starter began selling english muffins at local farmer markets but must have moved to higher hydration as the sour flavor is much less pronounced (I realize there could be a lot of other factors at play).

I doubt the hydration is as low as 20% -- I just tried mixing 10g flour with 2g water, and still had dry flour at the end. Traditional Italian madre starter is 50%, and it's a very firm stiff dough.

thanks for going to the trouble to try it, I've only fed the starter once since my friend gave it to me and that was using his instructions ("two tablespoons of flour, add a little water until if feels like this consistency"). I'll use the scale today.

...or the activity of the starter (and the acidity) will be so low that it gets invaded. I actually tried something like this once, in preparation for drying some starter as a backup -- it got moldy on me.

it does form a crust which he breaks and stirs into the starter at each feeding. Anyhow, I'm going to move to 100%, so all this will be moot. I was thinking about keeping his original culture going and the 100% hydration to compare results...
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: HansB on June 18, 2017, 01:28:52 PM
I was thinking about keeping his original culture going and the 100% hydration to compare results...

Not a bad idea. If you want more sour you could keep a 60% starter and store it at around 50-65F. My 100% hydration starters kept at ~60F are good and sour.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 18, 2017, 02:26:26 PM
that seems spot on hans, the person that gave it to me gets a pronounced sour flavor in his bread and english muffins that I find very appealing. He was approached to commercialize the product by a small, local bakery. When he turned it down, one of his friends with the starter began selling english muffins at local farmer markets but must have moved to higher hydration as the sour flavor is much less pronounced (I realize there could be a lot of other factors at play).

Unless you are using a LOT of starter in your dough, the dough conditions will have massively more impact on the final product than the starter conditions.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: quietdesperation on June 18, 2017, 05:30:04 PM
I just split off my starter from his:
- fed his original and achieved his desired consistency. The ratio was 80 grams of starter, 30 grams of flour and 30 grams of water
- created mine with equal parts of his starter, flour, and water (50 grams of each)

I have the starters in tupperware containers, his lid consists of a paper towel with a rubberband, which I guess allows some air flow. I'd like to use a tupperware lid but it won't allow air flow. Is that ok? Also, it seems to me I should mark the low and high points of activity on the container...

thanks!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 18, 2017, 05:57:41 PM
I use a mason jar with the lid loosely tightened. THe starter will produce positive pressure. It will pop the lid off tupperware if you seal it. You don't need or want airflow. The lid is just to keep stuff out.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: HansB on June 18, 2017, 06:09:21 PM
These jars work great. They have a wide mouth that makes it easy to use and clean. https://websecure.cnchost.com/weckjars.com/productsDetail.php?category=3 Crate and Barrel sells them.
I just use a rubber band around the jar to keep track of growth.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: quietdesperation on June 18, 2017, 07:59:56 PM
thanks guys, I've been meaning to head to crate and barrel to purchase a jar to store craig's chili oil, now I can kill two birds with one stone!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Andreas_1972 on August 15, 2017, 03:21:57 PM
Thank you Craig, your sheet is awesome!

I'm affine to math, so I try to understand your formula (column "E" in your sheet). I see the polynomial appox. depending on temperature, but don't understand the factors LN(1%), LN(40%) nor LN(4000%) either. On the other hand, what is the "magic number" 0.894 in D15?

Perhaps you can suggest some good literature, I know the publication from Michael Gšnzle as well as his his book "Handbuch Sauerteig" (handbook sour dough), and although I've seen your hints about the three formulas used, it seems to me there are still some formulas missing, to understand things in deep.


Kindly regards, Andreas
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 15, 2017, 04:36:52 PM
Thank you Craig, your sheet is awesome!

I'm affine to math, so I try to understand your formula (column "E" in your sheet). I see the polynomial appox. depending on temperature, but don't understand the factors LN(1%), LN(40%) nor LN(4000%) either. On the other hand, what is the "magic number" 0.894 in D15?

Perhaps you can suggest some good literature, I know the publication from Michael Gšnzle as well as his his book "Handbuch Sauerteig" (handbook sour dough), and although I've seen your hints about the three formulas used, it seems to me there are still some formulas missing, to understand things in deep.


Kindly regards, Andreas



Andreas,

I originally took whatever real-world observational data I could find and used it to baseline Dr. Gšnzle's formulae and create the table in the original post. Another member, Mitch, later took my table and did some curve fitting and additional maths to directly calculate multi-stage ferments. That's what you're seeing in the spreadsheet. You get the same answer with the table or the spreadsheet. The spreadsheet is easier.

As for literature on this subject, unfortunately Dr. Gšnzle's paper is about it.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Andreas_1972 on August 15, 2017, 05:14:42 PM
Craig, thank you.

I've guessed there is some other spice (Gompertz or logistic growth) in it....

Kindly regards,
Andreas
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 15, 2017, 05:38:05 PM
Craig, thank you.

I've guessed there is some other spice (Gompertz or logistic growth) in it....

Kindly regards,
Andreas

Remember that what you're looking at is not the model. It's just an expression of the data.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 15, 2017, 05:39:37 PM
This posts discusses how the actual model works: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.msg230007#msg230007
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Andreas_1972 on August 17, 2017, 03:47:25 PM
It took a while, but now I see the obfuscation contest  ;D

Great work, thank you!

Kindly regards, Andreas
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: [email protected] on September 05, 2017, 12:05:50 PM
Does this give you the information you need?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0

I have used this spreadsheet a few times for multiple fermentation stages and it works great.   However, I tried to use it yesterday and there seems to be a calculation error in one of the cells as I am getting a #REF! error.    The cells are locked so I am unable to see where the error is.   

Any help will be appreciated.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 05, 2017, 01:22:43 PM
Try it now.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 05, 2017, 01:24:43 PM
I always use the table: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.0

Any yahoo can edit that public spreadsheet, so use it at your own risk. The smart thing to do is to make a copy that only you can use.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: [email protected] on September 05, 2017, 05:14:36 PM
I always use the table: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.0

Any yahoo can edit that public spreadsheet, so use it at your own risk. The smart thing to do is to make a copy that only you can use.

Thanks for the fix, I downloaded it this time.    I typically use the tables, but was trying the spreadsheet the last few bakes with multiple stages.    Thanks again.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: asmdsr on September 11, 2017, 03:14:37 PM
In the chart, is the "Starter %" relative to the raw flour or total flour (ie including the flour in the starter)?

For example, if I'm trying to do 30% starter and 70% hydration, assuming starter is 50% hydration, are these numbers correct?

Flour    630
Water 410
Starter 190

And now I realize another question, what is the starter hydration assumed in the model?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 11, 2017, 03:26:07 PM
In the chart, is the "Starter %" relative to the raw flour or total flour (ie including the flour in the starter)?

For example, if I'm trying to do 30% starter and 70% hydration, assuming starter is 50% hydration, are these numbers correct?

Flour    630
Water 410
Starter 190

And now I realize another question, what is the starter hydration assumed in the model?

The raw flour, but you may need to adjust your formula water for massive amounts of starter.

The starter assumption is ~100%HR.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: asmdsr on September 11, 2017, 03:57:12 PM
Thanks Craig.

By the way I meant to say assuming starter is 100% hydration.

It appears that Ken Forkish's Overnight levain pizza dough recipe from Elements of Pizza has some mistakes?  The starter is 66%, and the proof time is about 8-12 hours, which is way off compared to the chart.  When I made it it came out way over-proofed.

Ken's proportions:
Flour 375
Water 225
Starter 250

My proportions I wrote in my earlier post were from my second attempt, where I dialed back to 30% starter.  It came out quite nicely, still a little over-proofed, but pretty good.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 11, 2017, 04:49:51 PM
66% sourdough or 66% baker's yeast preferment?

In my experience, that much SD will dissolve your dough. In any case, after a couple hours it would be overblown - let alone 8-12 hours. Something is wrong or missing?

Can you take a picture of the recipe and post it.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: asmdsr on September 11, 2017, 10:29:56 PM
Hi Craig, here is the recipe: https://imgur.com/a/rV31d (https://imgur.com/a/rV31d) (click photo to enlarge)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 11, 2017, 11:07:24 PM
I don't know what he's thinking with that recipe.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: asmdsr on September 12, 2017, 12:36:37 AM
Thanks for the confirmation, I though I was going crazy!  Your chart is very helpful, as I said I was able to adapt this recipe quite well using it, and will refine it further.

I saw some pictures of your pies and they look fantastic as does your whole setup.  Is https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=20477.0 (https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=20477.0) your current recipe?  I notice the thread is 5 years old and 27 pages long - let me know if you have a newer version.

Regards,
Tim
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 12, 2017, 08:53:13 AM
It's pretty much the same. The main changes are:

1) 2.8% salt.
2) 1.9 - 2.1% culture depending on the time of year (I've settled in on a dough that is a bit more fermented, and also my culture seems to have gotten weaker over time).
3) 36+12 hour fermentation with balls in wood boxes. Sometimes I use plastic bags in which case I do 24+24 hours.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Andreas_1972 on October 05, 2017, 05:38:10 PM
Hi Craig,

I read the question from "asmdsr" and come to a (perhaps silly) question: In an imaginary receipe there is 1kg of bread flour. From your table I get the information to use 10% starter to get the dough ready to bake in my preferred time. How much of the starter does it take then?
I think the starter itself is seen as additional ingredient, disregarding the flour in it.
So in my opinion I have to take 100g of my starter at 100% hydration. Is that correct?

On the other hand: Do I have to subtract any flour from the 1kg unfermented part, so that all flour in sum is 1kg again?

This becomes particularly evident, if I use 40% starter instead of only small portions...

Best regards,
Andreas
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 06, 2017, 08:09:55 AM
Andreas,

Theoretically, no, you wouldn't adjust your flour or water - just add the indicated about of starter. As you note, however if your starter is more hydrated that what you for a finished dough, at some point you might need to adjust back the water to lower the hydration of the final dough to a workable point.

The #1 caveat of this table (and the baker's yeast table) is it is intended to help you find a starting place rather than to be a be-all-end-all. It's particularly true with this table for the reasons you note. With the baker's yeast table, it's a guide for the direct method use of yeast across the table. With this table, at low levels it's direct method and at higher levels it's indirect method (a preferment).
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Andreas_1972 on October 06, 2017, 09:45:42 AM
Andreas,

Theoretically, no, you wouldn't adjust your flour or water - just add the indicated about of starter. As you note, however if your starter is more hydrated that what you for a finished dough, at some point you might need to adjust back the water to lower the hydration of the final dough to a workable point.

The #1 caveat of this table (and the baker's yeast table) is it is intended to help you find a starting place rather than to be a be-all-end-all. It's particularly true with this table for the reasons you note. With the baker's yeast table, it's a guide for the direct method use of yeast across the table. With this table, at low levels it's direct method and at higher levels it's indirect method (a preferment).

So in conclusion you would go along with me to add 100g starter (composed of 50g flour and 50g water) to 1kg flour, if the table predicts 10% starter?

Best regards,
Andreas
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 06, 2017, 09:51:45 AM
Yes.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: dciolek on October 14, 2017, 09:43:40 AM
Wow -- there is amazing math behind something as natural as yeast and bacteria helping dough to rise and sour!

Just confirming after some study, but in a nutshell -- it looks like the math in the google docs spreadsheet is summing each time/temp step progress to add up to an exponent of 2 (that is 2^x) which results to a multiplication factor of the original sourdough starter percentage such that it reaches some "target" completion factor -- which is a constant in the spreadsheet.  (i.e. -- how many times does the preferment have to double its concentration in order to grow to some target % value). 

Just wondering if this target completion factor is chosen relative to 100% -- which might define the state where there is no more potential yeast/bacteria activity available because they used up all the sugar/carbs.  The premise for setting it below the 100% level is that it would be over-fermented.

If that is correct (or even if not) you can use that step math and the periodic output of the Raspberry Pi w/temp probes to come up with a "Percent to Predicted Completion" based on actual temps in the dough ball over the length of the fermentation.  And you can let the computer do the work to measure at any interval (hourly, every 15 minutes, every 5 minutes, etc) to get better progress resolution. 

If you make the "completion factor" a variable, in case it needed to be adjusted for any reason due to type of dough or conditions or preferences, the rest of the math in your spreadsheet still applies.  A test run is attached:
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: plainslicer on October 19, 2017, 09:44:51 AM
I have nothing to add, but I would like to say thanks for creating this and the baker's yeast models. They have both been a huge help in improving my doughs in the past few months.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mikeoz on October 28, 2017, 06:55:04 AM
Kudos to you Craig, this is really good info for newbies and more experience tweakers too.
I knocked out a couple of pies in my home oven last night -- 5% starter for 48 hours. My cooler is a little smaller and the dough was running at about 15.5 C (~60F). They came out a little pale, as it's a crappy home oven and 70% H2O, but damn they were tasty. Really creamy, light and fluffy cornicione, and a great balance of acid and funk in the crust. Sorry no pics, couldn't get the phone out fast enough.
I'll be playing around with the cooler to try and get the temp up a few degrees for the 17C sweet spot.

Curiously, as a reasonably competent bread baker, I thought I'd make use of the extra cooler space to get a loaf or two going. Usually I'd bulk at room temp (18-20C) for 4-10 hours, then retard in the fridge until bake. We're talking magnitudes of difference in starter % here, as I usually use 20%, but thought the results are interesting. It was ready in about 80% of the chart's predicted time. Of course readiness might be a different beast with a loaf, because you aren't stretching it out, rather trying to maintain structure. Also trying to maintain tighter gluten networks.
Regardless, the results spoke volumes -- much more complex sour flavour, and no need for the fridge. I've found that the fridge is great for 8-12 hrs retarding to fit around a schedule, but any more and the dough starts to degrade, and the crust becomes chewy.

Right now I've got a 2 loaf (almost 2kg) batch of bread dough bulking in the cooler. I was aiming for 24hrs bulk + a well monitored final proof, and dropped the starter to 13%. Interestingly (perhaps because it's a larger 'ball' of dough) the dough temp is bang on 17C.
Next thing to try is the other extreme, throwing in 1% starter and letting it bulk ferment for a couple of days.
I'll keep experimenting with bread between my pizza batches (unlike me, the wife doesn't think of pizza as an every night meal), and once I can get some consistency in the cooler temp, it will be interesting to map my results against the pizza charts.

Thanks as well to Mitch for the starter calculator, that's a really cool tool. I'm also curious how those 4th order polynomials in column D were arrived at...is it possible to step us through?

THanks again!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 28, 2017, 08:32:37 AM
Thanks as well to Mitch for the starter calculator, that's a really cool tool. I'm also curious how those 4th order polynomials in column D were arrived at...is it possible to step us through?

They are simply curves fit to the data in my original table.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: dciolek on October 28, 2017, 10:12:55 AM
If it was a best fit curve approach -- it should be reasonably simple to add those constants to the spreadsheet formula as variables.  In the event that anyone needed to adjust the predicted completion curve to a different set of fermentation conditions.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 28, 2017, 09:18:50 PM
I'm not exactly sure what you're suggesting, but to be sure I was clear in my earlier comment, the curve fitting is not the model. It was simply a convenient way to port the model to that spreadsheet.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: dciolek on October 29, 2017, 05:12:03 AM
Sorry -- upon further reflection, I think my suggestion is a bit out of context.  The question from mikeoz about the 4th order polynomials got me to thinking about "the spreadsheet" and the math.  To which I of course agree -- the curve fit and the polynomial expression is not the model.

My suggestion was in reference to the curve fitting polynomial formula that is used in your google docs spreadsheet at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0) which translates your model's experimental data into a formula that calculates the percentage completion of fermentation for a series of time and temp steps.  That spreadsheet has inputs for up to 10 time/temp steps and then uses the "best fit curve" math for each step to sum up to a total percentage completion and solves for how much starter you need to get there.

I used that same math to make a similar spreadsheet that sums up the percentage completion of time/temp steps from the temperature output of a real time dough temp monitoring probe, so you could track the progress percent to completion and then calculate the remaining predicted time to completion at a given temp based on actual progress since starting the ferment.  Data from first trial run here:  https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=49858.msg502822#msg502822 (https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=49858.msg502822#msg502822)

In this monitoring spreadsheet -- I took one of the constants from the math in the google docs spreadsheet that is used to calculate the percent of starter quantity required and turned it into a variable, calling it "Target Completion Factor" (and using the constant as a default setting).  That Target Completion Factor seems to be determining how many times the percent added starter must double in order to grow to that level of fermentation completion.  For my first trial run, I used a different starter culture than was used in building the original model -- and noticed that the pH bottomed out at 95% completion and stayed there for the next three hours until it reached 100% completion. 

So if on the next trial dough run, I wanted to experiment and adjust my time to completion to hit the point where my pH starts to bottom out (maybe signaling that LAB function is declining -- and maybe the flavor contribution to the dough), I could adjust down that Target Completion Factor to 95% of the default factor and basically reset my completion target in the spreadsheet.

Likewise, my suggestion about being able to change constants in the curve fit polynomials from the monitoring spreadsheet into variables is along those same lines.  In the event that someone else has a different set of experimental data, using a different set of starting conditions (like the starter type, or flour type that is malted, or less/more salt, etc) -- they could adjust the variables for the polynomial to match the best fit curve from their own experimental data and the monitoring spreadsheet would automatically adapt its calculation of percent completion to match (without changing the spreadsheet formulas).

I am not suggesting anything to change the model, your spreadsheet or question the underlying math.  My experiment in real time monitoring is simply adapting your math and your work to provide feedback from the actual progress and dough temps over time during the fermentation.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: bifi85 on November 22, 2017, 05:26:47 AM
Do I understand this topic correct?
When I want to make a pizza with 20% starter (aka poolish) in it and my room temperature where I put the starter is 64įF. So I look at TXCraig1's model go to the point where 20% and 64įF meet (18h). Now I know my starter for the pizza is ready in 18h. That means in 18h I put the starter into my pizza dough and from here I do my pizza dough thing (rest overnight in fridge etc.).
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 22, 2017, 08:45:55 AM
Do I understand this topic correct?
When I want to make a pizza with 20% starter (aka poolish) in it and my room temperature where I put the starter is 64įF. So I look at TXCraig1's model go to the point where 20% and 64įF meet (18h). Now I know my starter for the pizza is ready in 18h. That means in 18h I put the starter into my pizza dough and from here I do my pizza dough thing (rest overnight in fridge etc.).

No. You interpret the same set of numbers like this:  if you want your dough to be ready in 18 hours, you would use 20% fully active starter in your dough and ferment the dough for 18 hours at 64F.  Keep in mind that the model is just a prediction and that there are literally dozens of variables that can affect the timing, so some testing and tweaking should be expected.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ccgus on November 22, 2017, 03:16:01 PM
No. You interpret the same set of numbers like this:  if you want your dough to be ready in 18 hours, you would use 20% fully active starter in your dough and ferment the dough for 18 hours at 64F.  Keep in mind that the model is just a prediction and that there are literally dozens of variables that can affect the timing, so some testing and tweaking should be expected.

I'll just drop this little anecdote to reinforce this idea.

The starter I'm currently using, which is at about 1 1/2 years old now, behaves way different from when I first started using it. For a 24 hour ferment, I would originally use about 10% starter. I found over time the starter became way more active as I trained it. These days, I'm down to using about 4% of starter. Same aromas, same starter, but different behavior as the starter matured.

Each starter is different in subtle ways, even the same starter a year later is going to act different.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 22, 2017, 06:31:00 PM
I'll just drop this little anecdote to reinforce this idea.

The starter I'm currently using, which is at about 1 1/2 years old now, behaves way different from when I first started using it. For a 24 hour ferment, I would originally use about 10% starter. I found over time the starter became way more active as I trained it. These days, I'm down to using about 4% of starter. Same aromas, same starter, but different behavior as the starter matured.

Each starter is different in subtle ways, even the same starter a year later is going to act different.

That's a great point. Mine has slowed over time as well. Where I originally used 1.7%, I'm, now using 1.9% - 2.1%.

As Yoda would say, one with your starter you must be.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: bifi85 on November 23, 2017, 05:42:56 AM
No. You interpret the same set of numbers like this:  if you want your dough to be ready in 18 hours, you would use 20% fully active starter in your dough and ferment the dough for 18 hours at 64F.  Keep in mind that the model is just a prediction and that there are literally dozens of variables that can affect the timing, so some testing and tweaking should be expected.
Thank you for your answer.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 23, 2017, 08:58:29 AM
Thank you for your answer.
  • I make a poolish and let it rest for 18h at room temperature for example
  • After 18h I make pizza dough with 20% poolish in it
  • My fridge has 45įF. So I have to put the final pizza dough 113h into the fridge?!?! (Holy %$#)

No, you're still reading the chart wrong.  Here are the basic steps given the data you identified:

1. Make a fully active starter (when you say "poolish" you mean sourdough, correct? This table will not work with a baker's yeast poolish).
2. Make your dough which incorporates 20% starter (for example, a dough with 1000g flour would use 200g of fully active starter)
3. Mix and ferment at 64F  for 18 hours total (bulk and ball time combined).

Again, note that this is just an estimate based on how a bunch of different cultures perform. Every culture is different as are formulas, workflows, and a bunch of other variables. Some testing and tweaking of %, temp, and/or time may be needed to get things how you want them.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: corkd on November 24, 2017, 10:09:50 AM
I have found this model to be very useful, rather than expecting it to be completely accurate. I use it all the time, and usually just go a little heavier on the starter %, & just slow things down with the fridge, garage, or basement as needed (depending on the season); or the 100degree bread proofing setting on my oven if I need to go the other way.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: bifi85 on January 13, 2018, 11:07:25 AM
TXCraig1, can you post 48 h chart for Sourdough starter, too? That would be awesome.  :-[
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 13, 2018, 01:26:57 PM
TXCraig1, can you post 48 h chart for Sourdough starter, too? That would be awesome.  :-[

This spreadsheet will give precise time/temp predictions (and multi-stage predictions) based on the sourdough model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UEj7IApIauBjj_9d3jdWrbjOjnWu5FICcgAFZY6p8Oc/edit#gid=0

To get predicted starter quantity for any temp, just make the top time cell 48 and the top temperature cell whatever temp you want. As long as all the other time cells are zero, the prediction will be 48 hours at the temperature you put in at the top temp cell.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: bifi85 on January 13, 2018, 05:49:45 PM
Do I use the google docs (https://i.imgur.com/urWGXu5.png) wrong?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 13, 2018, 06:03:55 PM
I have no idea how you did what you did. Somehow you edited two cells that were locked for editing and changed the number format. I fixed it, and it seems to work fine for me. Try just changing the temperature in the top cell and nothing else and see if it works.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: bifi85 on January 13, 2018, 06:17:18 PM
Thank you very much. I did not know I changed other stuff than hours and įF. I am sorry, didn't know that a google docs hacker sleeps in me.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Jr07 on January 16, 2018, 06:30:50 AM
just to be clear, the hours in the predictive model are from when to when? from mixing to ready to bake?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 16, 2018, 09:01:07 AM
just to be clear, the hours in the predictive model are from when to when? from mixing to ready to bake?

Assuming you follow relatively normal mixing processes* the hours would be from finished mixing to ready to use.

*non-standard processes might include things like multiple long rests, extended autolyse, etc. 
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: yarbrough462 on January 18, 2018, 07:09:12 AM
Just wanted to pop in and say thanks for this model.  I did 29 pizzas yesterday for some of my younger folks at work.  We have been working them in to the ground in preparation for an upcoming event so this provided a nice break.  I used your garage process and did a 48 hr ferment based on your model.  They fermentation was dead on and the young folks said that this is the best pizza they have ever had.  Keep in mind that these are all young Americans that live in Italy so they have experience in awesome pizza.  You made a lot of young Airmen happy yesterday! 
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 18, 2018, 08:53:46 AM
Just wanted to pop in and say thanks for this model.  I did 29 pizzas yesterday for some of my younger folks at work.  We have been working them in to the ground in preparation for an upcoming event so this provided a nice break.  I used your garage process and did a 48 hr ferment based on your model.  They fermentation was dead on and the young folks said that this is the best pizza they have ever had.  Keep in mind that these are all young Americans that live in Italy so they have experience in awesome pizza.  You made a lot of young Airmen happy yesterday!

Cheers! Thanks for letting me know.  ;D
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: yarbrough462 on January 18, 2018, 01:31:17 PM
Couple pics.  Didn't get many since I was cooking...

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 18, 2018, 01:54:27 PM
That's awesome. Thanks for posting.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: cnascime on January 29, 2018, 05:25:46 PM
Thanks a lot for this chart Craig! Do you have any idea how long would the dough take to be considered "overproofed" and not so good anymore? I guess that would also depend on temperature and amount of starter right?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 29, 2018, 05:35:50 PM
Thanks a lot for this chart Craig! Do you have any idea how long would the dough take to be considered "overproofed" and not so good anymore? I guess that would also depend on temperature and amount of starter right?

Yes, and you can use very over proofed dough too.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: cnascime on January 30, 2018, 01:29:42 PM
Yes, and you can use very over proofed dough too.

Really? Isn't that gonna make too difficult to stretch? Do you have any idea about how many hours the dough can hold on?

For example, if my dough is gonna be ready in 24h, and that means I can use it for 8h, versus if it's gonna be ready in 48h, I could use in 16h (double the time?). Does that make sense?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 30, 2018, 08:20:59 PM
It's not really that simple. Temperature will have a HUGE impact on how long you can use it without it being a pile of slop.

My 48 hour @ 62+/- has a good 6-8 hour window of usability without meaningful degradation of quality. It is probably usable for another 12 after that but at some point in there it's going to get overblown. It may not look as pretty, but it will taste good. With a 24 hour 70ish dough, it would be a lot shorter.

Your best bet is to experiment. Dough is cheap. Experience is priceless.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: cnascime on January 30, 2018, 10:10:47 PM
It's not really that simple. Temperature will have a HUGE impact on how long you can use it without it being a pile of slop.

My 48 hour @ 62+/- has a good 6-8 hour window of usability without meaningful degradation of quality. It is probably usable for another 12 after that but at some point in there it's going to get overblown. It may not look as pretty, but it will taste good. With a 24 hour 70ish dough, it would be a lot shorter.

Your best bet is to experiment. Dough is cheap. Experience is priceless.

I'm asking this because I'm trying to find a good system where I can have good quality and also flexibility (in therms of time), since I'm gonna be opening a neapolitan pizzeria soon. What if I use a 48h dough at RT and then store it in the fridge until I use it? Do you think I could stretch the window like that without losing quality? I'm gonna be doing a lot of experiments soon, but wanted to get a head start in the theory department hahahaa
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 31, 2018, 09:09:18 AM
My guess is that quality would suffer some. I've not made any Neapolitan pizza I've been happy with using SD at refrigerated temps. I'd make dough 2x/day before I'd use the fridge. I think you could probably do something that was 40ish hours at 60F that you bring up to ~78F for lunch and 72F for dinner. You'd have to experiment with the culture quantities and tempering times. A bigger challenge may be keeping a culture that is constantly active every time you make dough. Without a consistent culture, you may be constantly having to tweak your fermentation temp (perhaps wheeling racks of dough in and out of a temperature controlled dough room) to have it ready on time. I don't think it will be easy which is why probably almost nobody does it this way.

I have a friend who was running a Neapolitan pizzeria. He initially used SD but after a year changed to IDY. I asked why, and his reply was "I wanted to be able to take a day off."
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 31, 2018, 09:11:52 AM
The pizza probably wouldn't be quite as good, but making dough 2X/day and fermenting at 70F or so for 8-12 hours would be much simpler way to execute SD in a commercial setting. Using larger quantities of culture for shorter ferment should mute the effects of differences in culture activity to some extent.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: MrBready on February 02, 2018, 04:53:39 AM
Hi Craig,

your timetable is also usable for bread sourdough?
Secondly, the % fermentation could be considered as rise % of the dough?


Thanks and you did a wonderful job

F.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: yarbrough462 on February 02, 2018, 04:55:46 AM
Hi Craig,

your timetable is also usable for bread sourdough?
Secondly, the % fermentation could be considered as rise % of the dough?


Thanks and you did a wonderful job

F.

It absolutely works for bread. I have been been using it almost daily for that.  Haven't bought a loaf since and probably won't again...Not sure what you mean on the second question.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: yarbrough462 on February 02, 2018, 05:34:09 AM
My guess is that quality would suffer some. I've not made any Neapolitan pizza I've been happy with using SD at refrigerated temps. I'd make dough 2x/day before I'd use the fridge. I think you could probably do something that was 40ish hours at 60F that you bring up to ~78F for lunch and 72F for dinner. You'd have to experiment with the culture quantities and tempering times. A bigger challenge may be keeping a culture that is constantly active every time you make dough. Without a consistent culture, you may be constantly having to tweak your fermentation temp (perhaps wheeling racks of dough in and out of a temperature controlled dough room) to have it ready on time. I don't think it will be easy which is why probably almost nobody does it this way.

I have a friend who was running a Neapolitan pizzeria. He initially used SD but after a year changed to IDY. I asked why, and his reply was "I wanted to be able to take a day off."

Craig, I do large pizza events for the young folks at work whenever I get the change.  My house also fills up pretty good on Saturday nights...I have been using sourdough and have experienced a failure.  I was lucky in that I made a yeast dough as well so we still had decent pizza that time.  Like you said, dough is cheap...Have you developed a method to make pizza that is close to SD in flavor with IDY?  I ask because at this point, I don't really enjoy the IDY version anymore.  The SD is that much better to me...
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: MrBready on February 02, 2018, 06:44:37 AM
It absolutely works for bread. I have been been using it almost daily for that.  Haven't bought a loaf since and probably won't again...Not sure what you mean on the second question.

I mean during the first stretch and folds the fermentation begins its work and so the dough usually rise 30% after the first folds.
I wanted to know if the % Fementation column could be interpreted as a "rise" percentage of the dough.
I hope to be clever  ::)

Thanks

Fabio
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: yarbrough462 on February 02, 2018, 07:32:25 AM
I mean during the first stretch and folds the fermentation begins its work and so the dough usually rise 30% after the first folds.
I wanted to know if the % Fementation column could be interpreted as a "rise" percentage of the dough.
I hope to be clever  ::)

Thanks

Fabio

The top is the starter in bakers percentages.  The side is the temperature you are fermenting at.  You find the amount of time you want to ferment your dough on the left and then go over to the amount of starter you are using.  The cell that correlates with both tells you about how long it will take.  The chart is not exact but it has been super close for me.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: MrBready on February 02, 2018, 08:34:35 AM
The top is the starter in bakers percentages.  The side is the temperature you are fermenting at.  You find the amount of time you want to ferment your dough on the left and then go over to the amount of starter you are using.  The cell that correlates with both tells you about how long it will take.  The chart is not exact but it has been super close for me.

i am refearring to the SOURDOUGH PREDICTION MODEL.
Are you talking about the same model?

Thx

F.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: yarbrough462 on February 02, 2018, 08:39:41 AM
i am refearring to the SOURDOUGH PREDICTION MODEL.
Are you talking about the same model?

Thx

F.

Yes.  They both do the same thing.  On the sourdough model the top is the percentage of starter.  On the yeast model, the top is the percentage of yeast.  They are both used in bakers percentages.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 02, 2018, 08:44:13 AM
There are two forms of the same model: 1) the chart, and 2) the google spreadsheet. There is a column in the google spreadsheet that has "% fermentation"

Google spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UEj7IApIauBjj_9d3jdWrbjOjnWu5FICcgAFZY6p8Oc/edit#gid=0

I mean during the first stretch and folds the fermentation begins its work and so the dough usually rise 30% after the first folds.
I wanted to know if the % Fementation column could be interpreted as a "rise" percentage of the dough.
I hope to be clever  ::)

Fabio,

It's not something I thought about before, but I don't think it would work like that. To test, I put in 24 and 24 both at 62F, I get 50% and 50% on the %fermentation, but I probably get more like 80-90% of my rise in the last 24 hours.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: MrBready on February 05, 2018, 06:22:51 PM
Thank you Craig
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: junep on February 07, 2018, 02:16:06 PM
Here is a blank chart you can work from:

I'm confused on how to use this chart. I think the left column is room temperature. And I think the numbers across the top, are indicating the percentage of sourdough starter you want to use in your dough recipe Is that correct?
So when I look at my room temperature this time of year, which is 73F, and the look under 20, which I assume means I want my dough recipe to have 20% starter. So going down to the rm temp of 73F, and across under the 20% starter to use, it takes me to the number 9. What does that number indicate  and how do I use it.

Also, I looked at the preferment form and couldn't figure that out either. I have no idea how subbing the sourdough starter for IDY, impacts on the amount of flour and water. My starter is equal parts by volume of water and flour, so I have no idea how to adjust the amount of flour and/or water in my recipe to compensate for what's in the starter. And I definitely don't under some of the choices in that preferment calculator. Can someone help me with this?

My new starter should be ready to use tomorrow, and I'd love to make a single 12" pie using this variation of one of my good dough recipes:

Size of pie 12" (one pie)
thickness 0.07
IDY         0.2
Sea Salt    2   
Oil            1
Sugar        1

Grams for 1, 12" pie (formula above)

Flour   142.97
Water    91.5
IDY        0.29
Sea salt  2.86
Oil         1.43
Sugar    1.43   

I'd like to sub mature starter for the IDY and cold ferment 48 hrs. So how much starter should I use to sub for the IDY in this recipe?. And if I do a 48 hr cold ferment, would I use the same amount of starter that I'd use for the same day RT ferment? Sorry for so many questions, but I really want to try the sourdough starter to see how it affects the flavor, etc. of my dough. My starter is all rye, but when I refresh it for the pizza, I'll add all purpose flour. I've also ordered the Italian starter that I've read about here on the Pizza forums and that should be here this week.

Thanks for any input that can relieve my great confusion!
June
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 07, 2018, 02:58:02 PM
So when I look at my room temperature this time of year, which is 73F, and the look under 20, which I assume means I want my dough recipe to have 20% starter. So going down to the rm temp of 73F, and across under the 20% starter to use, it takes me to the number 9. What does that number indicate  and how do I use it.

Using your numbers, the way the table is typically used is like this: Your fermentation temperature is 73F, and you want the dough ready in 9 hours. You find 73F on the left column then slide to the right until you find 9 hours (yellow circle), then you slide up to the top (orange arrow) to find the predicted starter amount; in this case 20%.

You could do it the other way if you wanted to use a set starter quantity and temperature, just see where the temperature row and the starter quantity column intersect and that would be the predicted time (yellow circle), in this case 9 hours.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 07, 2018, 03:11:56 PM
I'd like to sub mature starter for the IDY and cold ferment 48 hrs. So how much starter should I use to sub for the IDY in this recipe?. And if I do a 48 hr cold ferment, would I use the same amount of starter that I'd use for the same day RT ferment? Sorry for so many questions, but I really want to try the sourdough starter to see how it affects the flavor, etc. of my dough. My starter is all rye, but when I refresh it for the pizza, I'll add all purpose flour. I've also ordered the Italian starter that I've read about here on the Pizza forums and that should be here this week.

The model in this thread wasn't ever intended for cold fermentation. That's why I colored that part of the table red. In retrospect, I should have just left it off. I'm not a fan of cold fermenting sourdough, however there are others who like it.  This member is very happy with his 3-day CF SD pies. Like he did, you might find when using CF SD, a bit lower hydration (~59%) may be better. https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=49530.msg513891#msg513891

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: junep on February 07, 2018, 10:26:46 PM
Craig, thanks for explaining that those numbers refer to hours. I can see that your chart will be very useful for me for delving into the unknown for me, of using starter for pizza.

One other question if I can trouble you a bit longer - when I decide the percentage of starter to use, is that percentage of the entire gram weight of the whole recipe?  Adding starter to my recipe means I'm adding more water and more flour to the recipe, so how do I make that work with adjusting the water or the flour? Is there a formula to use or is it just hit and miss till I get it to work.

Thanks again Craig for helping me with this.

June

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 07, 2018, 10:40:21 PM
The predicted starter quantity is the % of formula flour not including the flour in the starter. Whether you adjust the formula to reflect the hydration change caused by the starter is largely a matter of personal preference and your comfort level working in a wide range of hydration values. I almost never make an adjustment to the formula for the starter hydration, but I rarely use more than 10% or so. If I was going to use a lot more starter, maybe, but it would depend on the formula.

In the end, sourdough largely comes down to experience. There is no substitute for simply getting your hands dirty and making pizza. Note what worked and what didn't and make adjustments in your next batch. Dough is cheap. Make different formulas and experiment - even if you only feel the handling of the raw dough never bake them, you'll learn more than any calculation can ever tell you.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: junep on February 07, 2018, 11:47:04 PM
Craig,
If I'm understanding what you wrote "The predicted starter quantity is the % of formula flour not including the flour in the starter", does that mean that if my dough recipe calls for 100 grams of flour and I want to use 20% starter, I would lower my flour to 80 grams???

I'm all for experimenting and enjoy changing my recipe around; but it is nice to have some idea of the perameters that would give me at least a chance of having something edible; and I do so appreciate the time you've taken to help me with this.

June
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 08, 2018, 08:39:02 AM
Craig,
If I'm understanding what you wrote "The predicted starter quantity is the % of formula flour not including the flour in the starter", does that mean that if my dough recipe calls for 100 grams of flour and I want to use 20% starter, I would lower my flour to 80 grams???

I'm all for experimenting and enjoy changing my recipe around; but it is nice to have some idea of the perameters that would give me at least a chance of having something edible; and I do so appreciate the time you've taken to help me with this.

June

No, if your recipe calls for 100g flour and the chart calls for 20% starter, you would use 20g starter. For example, a typical 60ish % hydration SD with 20% starter might be:

100g flour
60g water
2g salt
20g starter
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: MrBready on February 08, 2018, 10:16:56 AM
Dear Craig,
I am trying to predict this scenario.
4 stages with a total of 36h using a 13.5% protein flour with 70% hydro at those given temperatures.
The result is 0,51% of starter.
My flour quantity is 350gr but i do not use chemical yeast or dry yeast but just solid (50% hydro) sourdough starter.
Following your model i should use approx 1,75gr of my starter🙆🏻‍♂️🤔
Isníit too small as quantity????
Thanks and regards

Fabio
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 08, 2018, 12:15:36 PM
Dear Craig,
I am trying to predict this scenario.
4 stages with a total of 36h using a 13.5% protein flour with 70% hydro at those given temperatures.
The result is 0,51% of starter.
My flour quantity is 350gr but i do not use chemical yeast or dry yeast but just solid (50% hydro) sourdough starter.
Following your model i should use approx 1,75gr of my starter🙆🏻‍♂️🤔
Isníit too small as quantity????
Thanks and regards

Fabio

Fabio,

The table was built largely on liquid starter (100% hydro) data, and I'm not sure how much solid starter would affect it. My guess is you might need to use a bit more but not much. For a liquid starter, yes, 0.51% sounds about right for the fermentation schedule you describe. Keep in mind that the final 12 hours at 83F is a long time at a relatively high temperature. Think about it this way: 1.75g is probably 10X more than you'd be using if you were using fresh yeast.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: hotsawce on February 08, 2018, 09:10:38 PM
I wanted to share a slightly related video to the predictive model...

There has been some discussion of Franco Manca in the past, as they've managed consistency across multiple locations using sourdough starter. I was browsing youtube and came across this video. It appears they understand the importance of consistent temperature regulation - they store their bulk dough in this dough retarder at what looks to be 19c or roughly 66f for the stated reason the kitchen is always very warm. If I had to guess, it looks like they use it primarily for the bulk ferment, finishing the fermentation in the trays. With their stated fermentation time of 20 to 22 hours, it fits right in-line with Craig's model under the assumption they are using 5% or less of starter in the neapolitan tradition.

Just a practical illustration of how important the temperature regulation is!

https://youtu.be/vx3X8eK-P10?t=2m16s
Title: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: the1mu on February 08, 2018, 10:16:58 PM
For what it is worth, in a commercial bakery setting, for a poolish (100% hydration), a pate fermente (65-66% hydration), and a biga (60-62% hydration) all receive the same level of commercial yeast to achieve full fermentation of the preferment at the same time/temperature combo. However their viable usability window varies. Also, a pate fermente with a hydration of 60% receives a different quantity of yeast for the same time/temperature.

And in my experience using a 60% hydro starter and 100% hydro starter (again in a bakery setting) at 20% inoculation yields a ripe preferment in the same time/temp window. Again, the only variable will be the usability window. The lower hydration has a longer use window whereas the higher is shorter.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: junep on February 14, 2018, 11:32:40 PM
No, if your recipe calls for 100g flour and the chart calls for 20% starter, you would use 20g starter. For example, a typical 60ish % hydration SD with 20% starter might be:

100g flour
60g water
2g salt
20g starter

Thanks Craig. I understand that I would use 20 gr of starter , if I choose 20% starter; but I'm not sure I understand the hydration %. Making my starters, I use equal parts by wt of flour and water, so does my starter have 100% hydration?  And if so, wouldn't I have to adjust the recipe by lowering the amount of water in the recipe, since the recipe as shown, is 60% hydration. I am SOOOO confused about this.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 15, 2018, 07:58:58 AM
Thanks Craig. I understand that I would use 20 gr of starter , if I choose 20% starter; but I'm not sure I understand the hydration %. Making my starters, I use equal parts by wt of flour and water, so does my starter have 100% hydration?  And if so, wouldn't I have to adjust the recipe by lowering the amount of water in the recipe, since the recipe as shown, is 60% hydration. I am SOOOO confused about this.

Yes and maybe. Yes, equal parts by weight is 100% hydration starter which is very common. Whether or not you adjust your formula water (or flour) is a matter of personal preference. You need to experiment to find out what works best for you. I'd say that, in general, the more starter you are using, the more likely you may want to adjust your formula.

As a general rule of thumb, each 5-6% of 100% hydration starter will increase your dough hydration by 1% if you don't make any adjustments.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: junep on February 24, 2018, 01:11:17 PM
Yes and maybe. Yes, equal parts by weight is 100% hydration starter which is very common. Whether or not you adjust your formula water (or flour) is a matter of personal preference. You need to experiment to find out what works best for you. I'd say that, in general, the more starter you are using, the more likely you may want to adjust your formula.

As a general rule of thumb, each 5-6% of 100% hydration starter will increase your dough hydration by 1% if you don't make any adjustments.

That helps a great deal Craig. Thank you. Right now I have a test dough for one pie using just 2% starter. It's been in the garage for about 48 hrs in daytime temperatures in the high 40's and by early morning it was in the high 30's in there. So I just took take it and will let it sit at RT for a few hours and see what happens. Next time, I'll just do a same day bake which will be an easier thing to do, and will also give me a better idea how this Ischia starter does in my recipe, than dealing with the unknown, changing temperature in my garage.

Thanks for your patience, and guiding me through this whole process!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 24, 2018, 01:34:40 PM
Happy to help. Even if things aren't working as you'd like at first, stick with it. Once things start to click, you won't believe how quickly you make progress.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: junep on February 28, 2018, 01:15:38 PM
Happy to help. Even if things aren't working as you'd like at first, stick with it. Once things start to click, you won't believe how quickly you make progress.
[/quote
Craig, the pie came out great, other than me leaving it on the peel too long as I topped it, then running into the bedroom to take a camera, wait for the camera to go on, etc. By the time I got the pie in the oven it stuck and what a mess. I got the far end in before it stuck somewhere around the middle. I pushed the rest off the peel and then pulled it back. I had a very testy and very ugly pie with a hole in the middle and a major oven cleanup the next day.

But that dough was the best dough I ever worked with. In fact, it was stretching so well when I got to the knucke stretching part, I just couldn't stop myself. It was amazing to work with. My 13" pie wound up being closer to 15". I will make that one again and redo the timing part since I couldn't use you 65 degree instructions.

Yesterday I went around my house taking temperature readings, and found that by closing the vent in my guest room I get high 50's temperature this time of year, and 60-61 right outside that door, even though the rest of the house is around 70-72. So i'll just use use chart and redo the recipe for that temperature.

Thanks as always, for all the work you do and share with all of us on our pizza making journey.

]
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 28, 2018, 01:19:29 PM
Glad things are working well.

A trick that often works well on a pizza that is lightly stuck to the peel is to lift up a little bit and blow under it. Be careful though, it's surprisingly easy to blow the pizza right off the peel like a hovercraft.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Heikjo on April 29, 2018, 09:03:58 AM
Any thoughts on how to reduce the level of acid in the dough?

My dough is too sticky and lack tension. From what I understand, higher acid load can lead to a stickier dough. To avoid this, I've seen recommendations of keeping the amount of starter low and the acid load of the starter as low as possible. From Trevor J Wilson's Open Crumb Master (on bread), he says you can lower the acid in a starter by using lower amounts of starter when feeding the starter (1:4:4 instead of 1:2:2 for instance) and by using the starter when it's young.

Do you, Craig, or anyone else have some input on this? I've currently been using the starter at least after peak, which in warm weather can be before 4 hours and in cooler up to 8 hours. If using the starter before it has peaked lowers acid, will it have any negative effect on the fermentation?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on April 29, 2018, 01:10:25 PM
I don't have any problems with stickiness - even using AP flour for 48 hours RT. If it's a big problem, it's possible that the only solution is to try to make a new starter that is less destructive to the dough. Also, it may be enzymes as well as acids causing the problem.

I'm not sure what else to suggest. You have to get from mixed dough to ready to bake dough, and a certain amount of microbiological activity has to happen in between regardless of your formula and workflow. For example, if you use less culture, you will have to ferment longer/warmer. You could try altering the starter quantity and fermentation temp and see if it makes a difference.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Heikjo on April 29, 2018, 02:20:27 PM
I am experimenting with starter amount and fermentation. My first reaction was that it had fermented too far, but even with less fermented (always fermenting at 16C) dough it gets sticky with little tension. I also planned to try lower hydration, which is at 65% with bread flour, but when I mix it, it seems like it should handle that amount. If it had tension, but was sticky, I would probably look at hydration first, but since I'm getting both, I started to wonder about the starter. I've had the starter for 3 years and it's pretty active, peaking at 4 hours in 25C RT. It has been neglected at times, the longest probably being 6 months just sitting in a fridge without feeding. I've also switched between different flours, from wholemeal to white, spelt to wheat and the other way a few times. Making a new one isn't a bad idea. Before I got into sourdough, I didn't imagine a starter would die or go bad. That since you are constantly feeding it with fresh flour, any unwanted characteristics would go away with proper feeding. But I've seen many talk about their starters going bad, so I understand that a starter carries its history in the bacteria. Are there ways to evaluate a starter besides how it acts in a dough, or would you need a laboratory, microscopes and qualified personnel for that?

Thanks, Craig.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on April 29, 2018, 02:24:18 PM
I think that's it. Ultimately, the specific microbiological composition really doesn't matter. Either it performs how you want it to or it doesn't.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Guppy on May 03, 2018, 05:13:11 PM
Hey pizza noob here:

So using this chart  for a 12 hour @ 84f, I would need  %6 starter at 100% hydration,  So in order to keep a 65% hydration how would I reduce the amount of water?

Also, what would be the work flow? eg

6 hours bulk ferment + shaping then another 6 proof? and cook at the 13h (After 1 hour preheating oven?)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ButteredPizza on July 29, 2018, 12:40:08 AM
Hi there:
Understood, predictive model with certain assumptions/baselines such as 75F temp and 100% hydration starter. 

More on the starter: is there an assumption on its build/feeding ratio (e.g. s:f:w 1:2:2, 1:3:3, 1:4:4), and an assumption of its activity, i.e. how long it takes for the starter to either double or be ready?

Thank you!

-- edited to fix embarrassing possessive apostrophe :p
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Heikjo on July 29, 2018, 01:34:28 AM
Hi there:
Understood, predictive model with certain assumptions/baselines such as 75F temp and 100% hydration starter. 

More on the starter: is there an assumption on it's build/feeding ratio (e.g. s:f:w 1:2:2, 1:3:3, 1:4:4), and an assumption of its activity, i.e. how long it takes for the starter to either double or be ready?
Not really. You can ferment a dough in the same time with two different feeding ratios on the starter. I mostly use feeding ratio and timings to play with when the starter is ready for use. If I want the starter to peak in five hours, I might feed it 1:5:5, but if I want it to rise overnight, I might feed it 1:10:10. The lower inoculation, the longer it will take to peak.

I'm not too versed in the world of bacteria, so the ratio might affect the fermentation in the final dough, but you will always have to experiment to find out what works for you. The prediction model is a starting point which gives a decent idea of where you can start, and it's very useful for planning your fermentation based on the time you want to use and which temperatures.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on July 29, 2018, 06:46:04 PM
Hi there:
Understood, predictive model with certain assumptions/baselines such as 75F temp and 100% hydration starter. 

More on the starter: is there an assumption on its build/feeding ratio (e.g. s:f:w 1:2:2, 1:3:3, 1:4:4), and an assumption of its activity, i.e. how long it takes for the starter to either double or be ready?

Thank you!

-- edited to fix embarrassing possessive apostrophe :p

How you feed your starter is not nearly as important as doing it the same way every time. Develop a routine, use the chart as a starting point. Test and tweak being very consistent in the variables you aren't tweaking, then when you find what work  best for you, do that.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: hotsawce on July 29, 2018, 09:58:32 PM
I have to be honest - the best advice I can give is do what works for you.

I've tried the fermentation chart, the different feeding schedules, different flours. Maybe it's my environment, but the only thing that has worked for me is some kind of whole wheat or rye flour and lower-inoculation feedings twice a day. White flours didn't work for me. Saw instant changes when I switched back to whole grain (which worked when I was first trying my hand at sourdough with the rye starter.)

Now I'm feeding entirely t85. It smells better, the dough made with it actually works better. It just wasn't happening with bread flour for some reason, no matter what I did.



How you feed your starter is not nearly as important as doing it the same way every time. Develop a routine, use the chart as a starting point. Test and tweak being very consistent in the variables you aren't tweaking, then when you find what work  best for you, do that.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: quietdesperation on August 12, 2018, 02:57:40 PM
slick spreadsheet!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: deb415611 on September 08, 2018, 05:53:46 PM
I love this chart.... I just made dough for tomorrow and realized that I won't be home.   Found the right temp for ~48 hours and just changed the controller temp.     :D

Thanks again Craig
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 08, 2018, 06:54:05 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Jr07 on September 13, 2018, 08:01:44 PM
BTW Craig not sure if you read others books but Marc Vetriís recent book, Mastering Pizza, has a sourdough recipe at aprox 40% levain content and with 6 hours bulk rest + 3 hours ball rest at RT, for a total of 9 hours at say, 75deg? Reasonable RT? . Which is twice the 4 hours suggested by the table
J
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 14, 2018, 08:04:47 AM
Sure, I'd guess the bulk is pretty well risen after 6 hours - like a bread formula where double then knock it down for a second raise.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: hotsawce on September 14, 2018, 08:27:48 AM
The starter you guys use must behave differently than mine did - I can't let my sourdough double then knock it down and ball. The gluten is extremely weak, the dough very fragrant, it definitely tears and frays when balling at that stage!

Sure, I'd guess the bulk is pretty well risen after 6 hours - like a bread formula where double then knock it down for a second raise.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 14, 2018, 09:02:04 AM
The starter you guys use must behave differently than mine did - I can't let my sourdough double then knock it down and ball. The gluten is extremely weak, the dough very fragrant, it definitely tears and frays when balling at that stage!

My comment "sure" was that his 75F RT assumption was reasonable. I don't make pizza like that formula suggests - either the direct use of extremely large quantities of starter or the double rise. Those are breadmaking techniques - not pizza.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ittayd on October 16, 2018, 09:49:44 AM
@TXCraig1, two questions please:
1. How does hydration change the numbers here? Or does a 70% hydration dough behave in terms of fermenting as a 60% one?
2. Is there a similar model for creating the levain? Or does it follow the same numbers as dough? (and then the hydration question again because levain is 100% hydration)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 16, 2018, 06:14:01 PM
@TXCraig1, two questions please:
1. How does hydration change the numbers here? Or does a 70% hydration dough behave in terms of fermenting as a 60% one?
2. Is there a similar model for creating the levain? Or does it follow the same numbers as dough? (and then the hydration question again because levain is 100% hydration)

1) AOTBE, a higher hydration dough will ferment a bit faster, but there are other factors in your workflow that will likely have a larger impact. This table is just a starting point. In the end, you'll need to experiment: test, tweak, repeat.
2) The starter %'s are the levain quantity. 
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ittayd on October 17, 2018, 02:59:16 AM
2) The starter %'s are the levain quantity.

Thanks. Is there a similar model for levain times? If the same model applies (that is, making properly fermented levain from starter has the same characteristics as dough from levain) , then do you have numbers to extend it to 100% hydration and larger percentage?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 17, 2018, 06:23:14 PM
Thanks. Is there a similar model for levain times? If the same model applies (that is, making properly fermented levain from starter has the same characteristics as dough from levain) , then do you have numbers to extend it to 100% hydration and larger percentage?

Unlike dough, there is a wide range of scenarios that might constitute a properly fermented levain. The extent of fermentation is much more a matter of personal tastes then doing the same thing every time to get consistent results.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ittayd on November 13, 2018, 05:52:45 AM
Mitch came up with a great methodology for using the model data to compute starter% given multiple fermentation stages. This way you don't have to backtrack through the chart; you just plug in your numbers. The chart itself is still a great tool for making changes on the fly as I described above.


Can you explain or give reference to the numbers in the E column? Is it a regression on the model?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 13, 2018, 06:27:34 AM
It's actually a regression/data fit on the spreadsheet in the first post. It was easier that trying to do the same thing with the original model.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ittayd on November 18, 2018, 07:49:18 AM
Doesn't the percentage also affect rise? Meaning, you need to let the yeast eat through some of the flour to release gases that make the dough rise. So if I increase the percentage of starter, it has less flour to eat, and so the dough will rise less, no?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: norcoscia on November 18, 2018, 10:41:23 AM
Craig - do you share the formula(s) you use - the web package I use supports charting and I could try to implement something. If you want, I could zip it up and send it to you. You could add it to your site. The tool I use generates normal HTML that will work on any normal web hosting site.

It would be a good learning experience for me and (if I can figure it out) something cool for your site...
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 18, 2018, 01:13:21 PM
I haven't looked at it in years, but I think these are the latest formulas: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.msg230007#msg230007
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: norcoscia on November 18, 2018, 01:30:01 PM
Thanks - hopefully my wife can make some sense of it - looks a little daunting to me.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: norcoscia on November 18, 2018, 02:13:52 PM
So are those formulas the ones used to generate the table below? That is what I'm trying to find...
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 18, 2018, 02:36:05 PM
No. They are two entirely different models. That's the baker's yeast model. In addition to a different set of formulas, it also includes some hand tuning where the SD model doesn't.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: norcoscia on November 18, 2018, 03:04:48 PM
Can you send me the spreadsheet or are you holding it close - if so I can PM you my email address.... thx
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Jr07 on December 16, 2018, 03:19:34 PM
Mr Craig,
I just got my hands on Ken Forkishís book The Elements of Pizza and noticed his sourdough recipe calls for 66% levain / starter. 250 gr for 375 gr of flour.

Even though your table only goes as high as 40% ., I want to assume we can extrapolate the calcs so at 66% any period of fermentation would be lower at any temp.

His total fermentation time is around 8 hours at room temperature, which would suggest way too long for me.

Thoughts?

J
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 16, 2018, 05:54:12 PM
Mr Craig,
I just got my hands on Ken Forkishís book The Elements of Pizza and noticed his sourdough recipe calls for 66% levain / starter. 250 gr for 375 gr of flour.

Even though your table only goes as high as 40% ., I want to assume we can extrapolate the calcs so at 66% any period of fermentation would be lower at any temp.

His total fermentation time is around 8 hours at room temperature, which would suggest way too long for me.

Thoughts?

J

Yes, you can, but you may need to test/tweak. This formula uses 54.4% and ferments 8 hours (4+4) total: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=10237.0
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: hotsawce on December 26, 2018, 01:23:28 PM
Is there any reason 0.5% or 0.25% are not included on the chart?

The more I do 24h room temp at standard room temp, Iím finding 1% is even too much. At 12h bulk my dough is probably already overactive.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 26, 2018, 02:58:39 PM
Is there any reason 0.5% or 0.25% are not included on the chart?

The more I do 24h room temp at standard room temp, Iím finding 1% is even too much. At 12h bulk my dough is probably already overactive.

No reason. I'll post a version with them when I have a chance.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Heikjo on December 27, 2018, 02:30:35 AM
Is there any reason 0.5% or 0.25% are not included on the chart?

The more I do 24h room temp at standard room temp, Iím finding 1% is even too much. At 12h bulk my dough is probably already overactive.
Don't forget the Google Sheet linked to in the first post, where you can type in whatever you want.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: brooklynguy on June 11, 2019, 02:32:36 PM
Iíve tried using this a few times as itís locked in protected mode?

Is this no longer available to use?

Thanks
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 11, 2019, 02:49:29 PM
Iíve tried using this a few times as itís locked in protected mode?

Is this no longer available to use?

Thanks

I didn't create/maintain the google spreadsheet. I just use the chart on the first page of this thread.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Heikjo on June 11, 2019, 04:16:51 PM
Iíve tried using this a few times as itís locked in protected mode?

Is this no longer available to use?

Thanks
You weren't meant to use the sheet linked to, but rather make your own copy an edit that. If everyone had edit access to the linked chart, it would become a mess and sooner or later broken.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: brooklynguy on June 11, 2019, 04:21:27 PM
You weren't meant to use the sheet linked to, but rather make your own copy an edit that. If everyone had edit access to the linked chart, it would become a mess and sooner or later broken.

Thanks for the reply. I have copied it now!

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: brooklynguy on June 11, 2019, 05:25:54 PM
I didn't create/maintain the google spreadsheet. I just use the chart on the first page of this thread.

Ok, thanks for the reply. Iím curious based on this model if the total sourdough% is correct?

Thanks
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: DanAyo on June 16, 2019, 05:55:31 PM
Craig, I have been an avid SD bread baker for many years. Recently my attention has been focused on pizza. For many reasons, SD pizza dough is my ultimate goal.

Your chart is impressive and I plan to study it and utilize the data.

I do have many questions (plan to read more of the replies) but one in particular stands out above the rest. Doesnít the dough degrade using extended warm fermentation? I ask because in my experience using a proofer set to 78F (actual DT = 80F) will turn the dough to slop (dough degradation) around 17hr. In my experience only particular flours can even handle that. My concern is even though the dough might make the long, warm ferment, wouldnít it be way too extensible to shape into a pizza crust?

I lied, 1 or 2 more questions please :D
Is the % of starter expressed as the percentage of flour prefermented or is it considered the total weight of the starter as a percentage of the total flour? What is the assumed hydration of the SD stater? And finally (I mean it this time) is the hydration of the final dough taken into consideration? Sorry, I couldnít help asking more questions :D

I read quite a few replies, but definitely not all of them, yet. Have you published a resource that might help me to understand your work better?

Thanks for taking the time to share your findings with the pizza world!

Dan Ayo
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 16, 2019, 06:14:25 PM
I ferment at 62F +/-2 for 48h and don't have problems with the dough degrading. It may also be your culture. Some are much more aggressive than others producing excessive  enzymes and/or acids.

Yes, % of total flour. The assumption is 100% hydration.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: DanAyo on June 16, 2019, 06:24:44 PM
Thanks for the quick reply Craig. Have you posted your favorite SD crust formula/method? I am very interested to try it. It seems apparent that you have done exhaustive experimentation. I am interested in thin crust, if that makes a difference.

I appreciate any help you care to offer.

Danny
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 16, 2019, 06:34:13 PM
https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=20479.0
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Heikjo on June 17, 2019, 01:48:48 AM
Craig, I have been an avid SD bread baker for many years. Recently my attention has been focused on pizza. For many reasons, SD pizza dough is my ultimate goal.

Your chart is impressive and I plan to study it and utilize the data.

I do have many questions (plan to read more of the replies) but one in particular stands out above the rest. Doesnít the dough degrade using extended warm fermentation? I ask because in my experience using a proofer set to 78F (actual DT = 80F) will turn the dough to slop (dough degradation) around 17hr. In my experience only particular flours can even handle that. My concern is even though the dough might make the long, warm ferment, wouldnít it be way too extensible to shape into a pizza crust?
Note that we use less starter in a pizza dough. While a bread recipe typically use 10-20% starter relative to the flour weight, you usually see 1-5% in a pizza dough.

If you plan to proof at 80F, you will need very small amounts of starter for a 24 or more hours of fermentation. If you want to use 80F you either have to use less starter and/or less fermentation time.

Fermentation = Starter amount*temperature*time

If either of the factors go up, fermentation will speed up. If they go down, fermentation slows down.

I haven't fermented pizza dough at 80F, but my experience with bread dough is that fermentation significantly speeds up when I've used 80F compared to 70-75F.

You just have to experiment and figure out what works for you. You can start by using some suggested starter amounts, but your starter is unique and you don't know how it performs until you start making pizza dough with it. The type of flour also makes a difference. Some flours are more suited for long fermentation than others.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: hotsawce on June 27, 2019, 01:34:09 AM
Iíve been using this chart quite a bit with my room temp caputo pizzeria dough tests. Iíve been mixing late evening, bulking for 12 hours, then balling and letting the balls proof for the remainder of the time indicated on the chart. For the most part, it seems to be pretty accurate.

That being said, I had success with a 2.2% starter dough at my warm room temp of around 80 degrees. It proofed and stretched nicely but didnít have more than a few hours usable life once fully fermented.

Last night, I made the same dough at 1% starter. Smelled sour a bit quicker but also took much longer to fully proof, as expected. What wasnít expected was the gluten in the dough seemed to begin degrading before the doughball has adequately proofed.

This has me asking a question -

At such low inoculation and such warm room temperature, is it a possibility the bacteria are
Multiplying faster than the yeast and degrading the dough before it is fully fermented/proofed?

Based on my experiments at these warm room temperatures, a higher inoculation same day dough in the summer seems like it might be the only solution (Iím not making dough at 4am 😜) 

Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: DanAyo on June 27, 2019, 02:12:48 PM
Concerning the chart (Predicted Fermentation Time) in the initial post, a question about the starter percentage.

Letís use 100 grams for the total dough weight. If the starter percentage is 2%, does the starter contain 1 gram of water and 1 gram of flour or does the starter contain 2%  of the total weight of the flour and an equal weight of water(2 grams).

I assume that when you speak of a starter it consist of equal weights of water and flour. Is that correct?

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 27, 2019, 02:54:45 PM
Concerning the chart (Predicted Fermentation Time) in the initial post, a question about the starter percentage.

Letís use 100 grams for the total dough weight. If the starter percentage is 2%, does the starter contain 1 gram of water and 1 gram of flour or does the starter contain 2%  of the total weight of the flour and an equal weight of water(2 grams).

I assume that when you speak of a starter it consist of equal weights of water and flour. Is that correct?



Yes, presumably it's about equal weights, but it refers to the actual starter weight (flour+water) regardless of hydration.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: DanAyo on June 27, 2019, 06:03:24 PM
Craig, can you provide a link to the latest edition of the Sourdough starter quantity predictive model?

I would also like the link to the latest spreadsheet for the SD starter calculations. The one where you enter the temperature, time, and starter. I've seen it somewhere as a google doc.

I am impressed with the predictive model. My better judgement thinks this can't work, but I checked a known percentage of starter against a known temperature and time. And the chart is extremely close. As you know when it comes to starters with all of the unknown variables, close is initially great. I read on PM that the characteristics of a starter has a great affect on the outcome. True, for sure. I use a proofer so the temps are pretty accurate. On my Brod and Taylor I have 2 degree variance in the actual dough temp as compared to the setting. A simple adjustment. But as I venture into higher % of whole grains I know that the fermentation will move faster in relationship to the % of starter, more so with whole grain.

Last Question - On this forum when you guys reference % of starter, I take it to mean the total weight of a 100% hydrated starter as compared to the total weight of the total flour. Is that correct? So, if the total weight of the flour is 100g and the percentage of starter is 4% the starter's total weight is 4g and it is composed of 2g water and 2g flour.

I know this is the second time I posed this question today, but I am planning to mix tonight and am anxious for the answer.

Thanks for your untiring effort to help all of us!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 27, 2019, 06:14:50 PM
The chart on the first page of this thread is the latest, and I think this link still works for the spreadsheet version: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0

Yes, the basic assumption is that the % starter x the flour weight = the weight of 100% HR fully-active culture. Note that if you go beyond 3-5% or so, you may want to start accounting for the culture in your overall hydration calculation and adjust the formula water accordingly.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: DanAyo on June 27, 2019, 06:19:20 PM
I thought I read that there were at least 3 revisions. The chart at the top of this post shows rev.1

Thanks for the quick reply...
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: parallei on June 27, 2019, 06:30:20 PM

Note that if you go beyond 3-5% or so, you may want to start accounting for the culture in your overall hydration calculation and adjust the formula water accordingly.


Note also that the forum's "Preferment Pizza Dough Calculating Tool" does this for you!  And, as you already know, accounts for varying culture/stater/whatever hydrations!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 27, 2019, 07:05:16 PM
I thought I read that there were at least 3 revisions. The chart at the top of this post shows rev.1

Thanks for the quick reply...

You might have been thinking about the baker's yeast model. It had several revisions.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: sallam on July 03, 2019, 04:39:50 AM
In Sourdough Prediction sheet, column D and E have no titles, what are they ?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Heikjo on July 03, 2019, 04:49:35 AM
In Sourdough Prediction sheet, column D and E have no titles, what are they ?
Calculations used in the sheet, you are not meant to change anything there. I believe those columns where hidden/collapsed before. If you make your own copy, just mark them, right click and hide.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: sallam on July 03, 2019, 05:25:32 AM
Many thanks.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Jr07 on July 06, 2019, 07:41:03 PM
question about the model, can it apply to the maturity of a starter? or has anyone seen one out there for this?

what would be the time to maturity of a starter fed at any given temperature....

j
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on July 06, 2019, 07:56:01 PM
question about the model, can it apply to the maturity of a starter? or has anyone seen one out there for this?

what would be the time to maturity of a starter fed at any given temperature....

j

The model assumes a fully active starter. You need to develop a repeatable workflow. With SD, for consistency and predictability, t's not as important how you do things that it is you do things the same way every time.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: andytiedye on July 07, 2019, 03:17:34 PM
Does the model assume that we are using the Ischia strain?

Our San Francisco strain seems to be a bit faster than the model would predict. Red Sea, on the other hand, rises really fast if it is warm, and sulks at cool temperatures.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on July 11, 2019, 01:07:04 AM
Does the model assume that we are using the Ischia strain?

Our San Francisco strain seems to be a bit faster than the model would predict. Red Sea, on the other hand, rises really fast if it is warm, and sulks at cool temperatures.

No, itís an average assumption. Many starters are similar to Ischia, but some testing and tweaking will likely be required.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Jr07 on July 22, 2019, 10:23:06 PM
Question,
Is there a way to know how fast dough balls change temp when put in / taken out or the fridge?

For instance if I have my 20% starter dough balls at room temp (75 deg) fermentation takes 8 hours. But I want to delay this process to 24 hours (would be at 60 deg according to table) but I cant  create a 60 deg env so I want to put them in the fridge which is at 40 deg but then take them out at the right time so that the effect is the same.

Or should I just increase the temp in the fridge to 60 ?

Sorry if this does not make sense
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on July 23, 2019, 06:53:26 AM
Question,
Is there a way to know how fast dough balls change temp when put in / taken out or the fridge?

For instance if I have my 20% starter dough balls at room temp (75 deg) fermentation takes 8 hours. But I want to delay this process to 24 hours (would be at 60 deg according to table) but I cant  create a 60 deg env so I want to put them in the fridge which is at 40 deg but then take them out at the right time so that the effect is the same.

Or should I just increase the temp in the fridge to 60 ?

Sorry if this does not make sense

Here are the instructions how to use the table with multiple temps: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.msg230690#msg230690

I've done very little with SD in the fridge, so I don't have much advice to give other than to expect to need several rounds of testing and tweaking to get the workflow right.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: iLLEb on July 28, 2019, 07:23:14 AM
What would you say peak activity looks like when using SD starter?

Was it, when it's doubled and starts to collapsse upon itself?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Heikjo on July 28, 2019, 08:24:45 AM
Depends what you mean with peak, but I would call it the point where it stops growing and starts to collapse. That's typically when you want to use the starter in the dough, but venturing into that area with a dough is risky. Some like getting close to that point, but to me it seems most prefer using the dough when it has risen 1.7-2 times, which is still quite far from peak.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on July 29, 2019, 06:35:19 AM
Depends what you mean with peak, but I would call it the point where it stops growing and starts to collapse. That's typically when you want to use the starter in the dough, but venturing into that area with a dough is risky. Some like getting close to that point, but to me it seems most prefer using the dough when it has risen 1.7-2 times, which is still quite far from peak.

More important than how you define peak is that figure out what works for you and do it the same way every time else consistent, predictable results may be difficult to achieve.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: iLLEb on July 29, 2019, 08:36:11 AM
Yeah sounds logical, probably best to focus on using it in the same "stage" and try to see if its done at time you want em ready or adjust accordingly.

First try is Tuesday, just made the dough Sunday and im curious to see if its good and ready on Tuesday. Ill show off the results if its decent.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Chicago Bob on July 30, 2019, 09:50:21 PM
Yeah sounds logical, probably best to focus on using it in the same "stage" and try to see if its done at time you want em ready or adjust accordingly.

First try is Tuesday, just made the dough Sunday and im curious to see if its good and ready on Tuesday. Ill show off the results if its decent.
show it regardless... We learn more from mistakes.

Thank you.  🧐
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: iLLEb on July 31, 2019, 01:35:35 PM
I forgot my telephone so no photos. I think it was underfermented because the cornicione was not puffing up like before i believe? Is that the problem? I got very little rise. I must admit  however, it is just incredible how much of a taste difference the natural starter and commerical yeast is.

I thought it would be minimal, but it is actually huge. a commercial yeast is fairly bland, but the natural yeast has a distinct flavour. However, the one i made with commercial yeast wwas VERY light and fluffy with an nice cornicione.

Could you confirm or advise what the most likely problem was as i think the only difference was natural yeast. If this one can be made identical to the one i made with commerical yeast, i think i would be insanely happy already with my product, near perfect to how i want it to be.

It is very hard to tell if it is ready for me, i use an wwooden box like Craig's and i also seem to have some issue iwht if drying out a bit, just a little, i use plastic wrap around the wood but it dries out a bit. any suggestions?

It could either be that it waas not in the best stage or that i did not change to higher room temp soon enough.

I let it rise in bulk for 24H at about 20C and then fridged it for 2/3 hours - balled it - and returned it too 20C for 24H more.

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on July 31, 2019, 01:37:13 PM
All cultures are different, and some are more different than others. All you can do is experiment and figure out how best to manage your culture in your unique situation. If it seems under-fermented, use more culture or ferment at a warmer temperature, and vice-versa.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: iLLEb on July 31, 2019, 01:38:40 PM
Okay, but what would you say is the most likely suspect when the cornicione does not rise to your preferred size? Is it the culture? Or should i focus my tests elsewere?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Heikjo on July 31, 2019, 01:51:19 PM
First of all, a dough made with SD will have less rise than if you used yeast. Commercial yeast has more power than the sourdough.

You can of course still get less rise than you'd like, which can be caused by a number of things. The starter itself can have a composition which doesn't give that much leavening power. The fermentation could've been off, which again can be caused and corrected by a number of things (starter amount, time amd temperature), the opening technique could've been less than ideal.

Why did you put it in the fridge 2-3 hours in the middle?

It's easier to evaluate your results if you post the entire process, including photos. Recipe, ingredients, method, oven, oven temp etc. It's impossible to tell why you didn't get the results you were looking for, but it's difficult to give tips without the full story. For all we know, the cornicione had a spring that one would expect from your dough, but without more information it would be shooting blind.

That is maybe something you could discuss in a new topic. This one is primarily about the SD starter model, while your questions can end up in different places. You'll likely get more answers in a dedicated topic too.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: iLLEb on July 31, 2019, 02:09:22 PM
Yes i was thinking the same. I will post in an another topic orr create my own.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: iLLEb on August 19, 2019, 10:12:06 AM
If i want to do 24H, does it matter at all if i do 73F 24H or 65F 24H?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Heikjo on August 19, 2019, 01:28:32 PM
Both can work. I see some that get some problems with higher temperatures, and balls that are slack. If that's a product of bulk/ball timings or just the dough being degraded too much from a higher temperature I don't know.

I use 15C/59F and like that temperature. Partly because if I used anything over 22C, the required starter amount would get pretty small and my scale might contribute to inconsistencies. I also like how the doughs handle when they've been kept at a lower temperature. I usually take them out an hour before, but they don't reach RT ik that time.

If you don't have any preference yet, and can control the temperature, I would suggest 65F.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ButteredPizza on October 10, 2019, 11:50:53 AM
Yo.  I clearly have no clue how about what a properly fermented neopolitan dough is!  It is fully understood the times in Craig's plot are just a starting point!  Sorry this is long.  Here's the TLDR (Too Long, Didn't Read) version:

I accidentally overproofed my neopolitan dough and it made the best pizza so far.  I believe I'm way underfermenting.  Which of these would be the most efficient method to narrow in on proper fermentation?
1. Keep starter and time the same, but use a higher fermentation temperature? 
2a. Keep starter and temperature the same, but either setup a video to watch the fermentation?
2b. Keep starter and temperature the same, but take samples out at intervals to see how it behaves?
3. Keep the temperature and time same, but mix several batches using different amounts of starter?

Long version:
Once I got a starter properly working last year, I chose a time/temp for 12 hr bulk, 12 hour ball.  I ended up with a dough that was a little tough to stretch. The pizza and crust all tasted good, and targets like doubling, bubbles, have looked just like everything I've seen posted here, maybe some mild heart burn**.  The biggest challenge now for past few months: the dough never opened up like in all the shaping videos, and no matter what, I could not get them to bake faster than about 75-80s in the ardore.  I thought it might be over development, so I stopped mixing, then the dough was tearing after 24 hours.  Or maybe my regulator just wasn't strong enough for the ardore, so I preheated longer, up to an hour.  Or maybe wrong hydration, I first went up to 65% for a few weeks, and last couple months I dropped down to 60%.  Or maybe over proofing.. so I used less starter.  I also changed flour from central milling 00 to caputo, just to rule that out.  All these one-by-one changes didn't really do much, and a few triggered some strong heartburn which to me is characteristic of under-fermented dough, and subsequently I went back to what was "working" and dealt with mild heartburn attributed to ingredients *shrug*

My most recent batch, however, should have been a complete failure but turned out.. best so far.  I put the just-balled dough back in my wine-fridge dough proofer, then carelessly closed the door, which tweaked the hanging thermocouple between the door gasket and the room (it's all a hodge podge setup, I haven't had time to make it nice).  Ambient temps in my house have actually been a little cooler than the current proofing temp, so.. the heating pad remained on for the next 12 hours, during which time I was at work.  I arrived home to flat, flat pancakes.    Internal fridge temp measure well over 80F, probably 85-90F.  Oops.

Decided to see what happens anyway.  The dough was sticky, so used extra bench flour, however, it not only held together, but the 230g balls opened up to 11" with a cornicone rim with just a 3-4 turns.  Holy cow!!  It was also super thin!  Had a little trouble sliding the skins onto the peel, they stretched more than went along for the ride, and then I had a few launch failures since even with minor toppings the dough would stretch instead of stay in shape, but eventually managed to get everything working with extra flour.  Not ideal, as I could taste and feel the bench flour in my pizza.  The crust, however, had pleasant browning and leoparding that wasn't burnt, did get a little rise in the cornicone, crust was tender, and bakes were 60 seconds.  No heartburn!

Based on the sticky results and super flat dough balls, I do believe these were overproofed.  But because the results were best yet, I'm ready to tweak the recipe again.  That's why I'm here.  What's the most efficient experimentation path that will help me arrive at a proper fermentation?   Three variables but four different techniques listed above in the TLDR version, which do you all recommend?

Current fixed variables: 60% hydrated caputo flour, 3% salt, and 24 hours total fermentation.  I have varied starter/time/temp based on the graph, and my trials resulted in fermentation being constant measured by how the balls look, feel, handle, and bake.

Thanks for your time :)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: 2ndtimearound on October 17, 2019, 04:11:56 PM
Been a while since I made NP with my SD cultures.

I've been dividing and feeding for a week and i'm finally happy with my starter.

My formula will be

100% Caputto 00
62% HD
2.8% salt
1.8% ithica

going for a 24 bulk/24 ball at 65 degrees

based on the model I appear to be a bit high on the SD.

cook time should be 60-70 seconds at 900 deck temp.

will post results after the bake on sunday

It's nice to be back.

Mark


 

Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: In Bocca Al Lupo on December 01, 2019, 01:05:08 AM
Just wanted to throw a data point in here.

I have a recipe with 1.67% starter. Around 22 hours bulk at 55degF. Then ball and another 24 hours at 55degF. It gets around 5 hours at room temp, 72degF then it's ready to roll.

This seems to be a decent amount faster than Craig's model. But I may be underestimating the work the room temp finish is doing.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: In Bocca Al Lupo on December 01, 2019, 01:23:11 AM
Just wanted to throw a data point in here.

I have a recipe with 1.67% starter. Around 22 hours bulk at 55degF. Then ball and another 24 hours at 55degF. It gets around 5 hours at room temp, 72degF then it's ready to roll.

This seems to be a decent amount faster than Craig's model. But I may be underestimating the work the room temp finish is doing.

I entered in this info in the sourdough prediction google sheet and it results in wanting >5% starter. I am now thinking that I am sharing the room temp and not the dough temp and I need to go take some more measurements of the dough to see where it is at. My guess is that it is actually closer to 60degF when doing the long fermentations. If so, then the model predicts what I am seeing. I will measure it tomorrow and report back.

Note I have the dough bulk in ~10KG batches - and the larger the batch the lower the effect of the room temp.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: pmk on December 06, 2019, 11:38:55 AM
Just another thank you to TXCraig1 for putting this together.  Having a guideline on how much starter to use relative to time available has been extremely helpful.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 06, 2019, 11:47:39 AM
Just another thank you to TXCraig1 for putting this together.  Having a guideline on how much starter to use relative to time available has been extremely helpful.

Cheers!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: jsobolew on January 11, 2020, 07:17:05 PM
Ok I just read through all 20 pages and I just have one question:

What is the final difference between using more starter for a shorter overall proof time and a small amount of starter for a longer proof time?
I assume that the dough will handle differently, bake differently, taste differently between proofing for say 12 hours vs 2 days.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 11, 2020, 07:24:41 PM
I think all of the above are possible.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: jsobolew on January 12, 2020, 02:42:58 AM
Is there a sister thread to this where starter handling is discussed? This is my first time working with a starter. I cultivated it from scratch just from whole wheat flour following directions on the King Arthur website. I've gotten it to the point where it doubles within 4-6 hours so I made my first batch of dough with it today (using your excellent chart). I only make pizza about once a week so purging excess and feeding the culture every day seems like more work than I'd like. I can fridge it but then I'd have to wake it back up somehow once a week and I'm not sure about the best way to do that.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: andytiedye on January 12, 2020, 04:34:40 AM
Make sourdough bread, pancakes, waffles, bread, whatever, and pizza, of course.  Our starter only goes in the fridge when we are away.

For pizza dough I tend to use a lot of starter, sometimes the dough is mostly starter.  I make very thick crust pizzas though.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: BCS430 on January 14, 2020, 05:48:23 PM
The chart on the first page of this thread is the latest, and I think this link still works for the spreadsheet version: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0

Yes, the basic assumption is that the % starter x the flour weight = the weight of 100% HR fully-active culture. Note that if you go beyond 3-5% or so, you may want to start accounting for the culture in your overall hydration calculation and adjust the formula water accordingly.

Craig, Im sure this has already been discussed but are you factoring the post balling of dough as an additional stage or is this just for bulk ferment?  So, lets say I bulk ferment for 3 hours at 75 degrees, followed by bulk ferment at 58* for 24 hours.  The model would suggest about 23% of starter. 

However, when I ball the dough and let that sit until ready (say 4-5 hours at 75 degrees rt), should I add that as a 3rd stage which then drops the starter to 9-11%?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 17, 2020, 10:18:40 AM
It's an estimate of total fermentation time. One thing it would not include however is reballing.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: gswang on January 19, 2020, 11:16:39 AM
Is there a non-jpeg version of this chart? (Ie the underlying spreadsheet, not the prediction calculator?)

I'm trying to print the chart for reference but the jpeg comes out really blurry.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: jsobolew on April 10, 2020, 05:28:06 PM
I've been using the chart for a little while with pretty great results. I've found that with a normal room temp ferment, no matter how short or long, the sour flavor was pretty subtle. If I do the normal room temp ferment, then place it in the fridge for 2 days, it's amazing. Exactly what I'm going for. I've made about 25 pizzas this way for friends and they all really loved it, lots of great reviews. The only problem is after being in the fridge for 2 days, the dough becomes extremely delicate to handle. I can't stretch it in the normal ways because it has no strength and tears immediately. Instead I have to press down with my finger tips over and over until it's stretched out. The fact that I'm making 16" thin pizzas only makes it more difficult. I'm assuming that the build up of acetic acid from the time in the fridge is the cause of the great flavor that I'm enjoying but it's probably also completely breaking down the gluten. Does this sound right? Any tips or tricks for this issue?
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on April 13, 2020, 02:23:50 PM
Yes, it's the acids and enzymes degrading the gluten. Not much you can do about it other than ferment a bit less.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: jvp123 on May 05, 2020, 12:42:05 PM
Hi Craig,

Hope all is well!

Is it possible that an SD starter could be much more powerful than the average starter per the SD table recommendations?  I made some dough over the past couple days and I used 1.8% very active Ischia culture for a 24/24 ferment at as close to 63F as I could keep it. 

By mid morning of day two the dough was past finished. I feel like I could have used much less starter and been fine. 

At opening time, I had all sorts of issues with blown out, wet, sticky, slack dough (I had also over hydrated at 67% as a test) which made launching a nightmare.

Thanks in advance!
Jeff


Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: mourner on May 05, 2020, 12:42:48 PM
Hi Craig,

Thanks so much for the amazing work on the model! When exploring the spreadsheet formula, I noticed something weird ó it appears that half of it negates itself. Here it is with some additional formatting to demonstrate what I mean:

Code: [Select]
=((
  (-0.0000336713*C3^4+0.0105207916*C3^3-1.2495985607*C3^2+67.0024722564*C3-1374.6540546564)*LN(1%)+
  (-0.000003773*C3^4 + 0.0011788625*C3^3 - 0.1400139318*C3^2 + 7.5072379375*C3 - 154.0188143761) <-------
) - (
  (-0.0000336713*C3^4+0.0105207916*C3^3-1.2495985607*C3^2+67.0024722564*C3-1374.6540546564)*LN(40%)+
  (-0.000003773*C3^4 + 0.0011788625*C3^3 - 0.1400139318*C3^2 + 7.5072379375*C3 - 154.0188143761) <-------
)) / (LN(4000%)/LN(2))

The lines I marked which constitute half of the formula don't contribute to the result because they negate each other. So I'm wondering if it's something to ignore, or could this indicate a potential mistake in the spreadsheet?

Thanks so much again!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on May 05, 2020, 02:57:43 PM
I didn't make the spreadsheet, it's not my model's formula that's used in it, and I don't maintain it, so I can't speak to it or it's accuracy. When I've looked at it, it has appeared to have the same result as my model, though I' know that it's been broken by various users and repaired a couple times.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: jsobolew on May 05, 2020, 04:12:27 PM
Hi Craig,

Hope all is well!

Is it possible that an SD starter could be much more powerful than the average starter per the SD table recommendations?  I made some dough over the past couple days and I used 1.8% very active Ischia culture for a 24/24 ferment at as close to 63F as I could keep it. 

By mid morning of day two the dough was past finished. I feel like I could have used much less starter and been fine. 

At opening time, I had all sorts of issues with blown out, wet, sticky, slack dough (I had also over hydrated at 67% as a test) which made launching a nightmare.

Thanks in advance!
Jeff

I can only speak for myself but I have found the 2 different starters I use to react differently. The model has mostly been a pretty good starting point with the culture I harvested a few months ago. A friend gave me another culture that is 15 years old and I made 2 batches the same with both cultures. I left them out overnight and discovered that the 15 year old starter puffed up the dough almost twice as much than my younger starter. I found this odd because they seemed to look pretty similar during feedings.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: jvp123 on May 06, 2020, 12:19:24 PM
I can only speak for myself but I have found the 2 different starters I use to react differently. The model has mostly been a pretty good starting point with the culture I harvested a few months ago. A friend gave me another culture that is 15 years old and I made 2 batches the same with both cultures. I left them out overnight and discovered that the 15 year old starter puffed up the dough almost twice as much than my younger starter. I found this odd because they seemed to look pretty similar during feedings.


Ok thanks.  Do you know if there are any down sides to using an amount as low as 1%?  Flavor has never been a problem for my starter, so far.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: HansB on May 06, 2020, 12:34:32 PM

Ok thanks.  Do you know if there are any down sides to using an amount as low as 1%?  Flavor has never been a problem for my starter, so far.

I have successfully used .5% starter for a 24 hour RTF.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: jvp123 on May 06, 2020, 12:38:56 PM
I have successfully used .5% starter for a 24 hour RTF.

Thanks Hans - is this for NP pizza?  Also, at what temp are you fermenting.  Is dough spending the entire time in balls?  I've thought about trying a straight 24 hour ball ferment since I always have trouble reballing dough.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: HansB on May 06, 2020, 01:00:05 PM
Yes, NP. Temp around 68į in balls the whole time.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: jvp123 on May 06, 2020, 01:05:20 PM
Yes, NP. Temp around 68į in balls the whole time.

Cool thx, Hans.  Makes sense for my situation and starter strength.  Gonna do a 24 hour test run in balls only.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: jsaras on May 06, 2020, 01:21:36 PM
Cool thx, Hans.  Makes sense for my situation and starter strength.  Gonna do a 24 hour test run in balls only.

Your success, or lack thereof, will be your guide.  My best results for an 18-24 hour room temperature fermentation were when it was in balls for 8-12 hours.  Otherwise it was too loose to handle.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: jvp123 on May 06, 2020, 01:41:51 PM
Your success, or lack thereof, will be your guide.  My best results for an 18-24 hour room temperature fermentation were when it was in balls for 8-12 hours.  Otherwise it was too loose to handle.

Agree on the experimentation.   I guess there's that balance between hydration and fermentation time.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: brooklynguy on May 18, 2020, 07:41:25 AM
Hello, Iím curious what the ratio of culture to fresh yeast would be optimal for a cold ferment. The dough would also include oil.

Thanks
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on May 18, 2020, 07:44:29 AM
Hello, Iím curious what the ratio of culture to fresh yeast would be optimal for a cold ferment. The dough would also include oil.

Thanks

In my experience, CF and SD don't lead to the best dough. I'd suggest heavily weighting the ratio to fresh yeast to start then slowly bring it back in successive batches until you find the balance you like best.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: brooklynguy on May 18, 2020, 11:35:33 AM
In my experience, CF and SD don't lead to the best dough. I'd suggest heavily weighting the ratio to fresh yeast to start then slowly bring it back in successive batches until you find the balance you like best.
Thanks for the suggestion.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: anverc on May 18, 2020, 11:55:43 AM
Thanks for the suggestion.
FWIW, I always refrigerate TXCraig1's 1.3% recipe after an 18-24hr bulk RT (floats between 65-75F) and the pizzas have turned out great every time.  I've refrigerate for at least 18h, up to 2.5 days and let return to RT for 6-12 hours on the tail end.

I use some version of Craig's copied formula that was in the spreadsheet 7 or so years ago (via the website in my sig). It's always off by several hours at the end (says done at noon, really done around 4) so I have learned to compensate. It probably doesn't help that I'm not fermenting and proofing in a temperature controlled environment anymore, but we just don't have the space for the cooler we use to have.

I also never kneed
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on May 18, 2020, 12:04:28 PM
That's the thing about pizza, there are so many variables unique to your situation - many of which you may never notice - that they only way to figure out what works best for you is to experiment.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: brooklynguy on May 21, 2020, 09:04:38 AM
FWIW, I always refrigerate TXCraig1's 1.3% recipe after an 18-24hr bulk RT (floats between 65-75F) and the pizzas have turned out great every time.  I've refrigerate for at least 18h, up to 2.5 days and let return to RT for 6-12 hours on the tail end.

I use some version of Craig's copied formula that was in the spreadsheet 7 or so years ago (via the website in my sig). It's always off by several hours at the end (says done at noon, really done around 4) so I have learned to compensate. It probably doesn't help that I'm not fermenting and proofing in a temperature controlled environment anymore, but we just don't have the space for the cooler we use to have.

I also never kneed
Thanks for the info!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ochsavidare on June 23, 2020, 06:35:43 AM
This might be the most stupid question, but whatever. What do you consider to be a pizza dough that has finished fermenting?
I was shooting for a 24h RT fermentation, at a temp ~78F and I used 0.5% active starter. Already after 20h the volume had approximately doubled, which is way more than what I usually aim for. I'm usually only aiming for ~50% increase in volume.
I understand that the activity will vary between different starters and that it's not an exact science, but this variation seemed to be outside the limits of natural variation. So is it just that my definition of done is skewed compared to other people?

Btw, love the more scientific approach to the whole process that is expressed here :)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 23, 2020, 08:33:28 AM
The definition of finished fermenting varies from person to person, and apparently quite a lot. You're the first on this forum I've seen targeting as low at 1.5x. The model targets 1.7 - 2.0x, so your results are right in line with the expectation. There are all sorts of variables that can affect the results other than the variability of the specific tarter flora. For example, starter activity when used, water and flour temp, mixing time, differential between finished dough temp and fermentation temp, stability of fermentation temp, dough hydration, salt and sugar %, etc.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ochsavidare on June 23, 2020, 06:49:15 PM
I see, itís at least good to know what the model is aiming for. If 1.7-2x is the common aim I might consider going for that also.

Sure, I, of course, realize that thereís a huge set of hidden variables that I have no control over.  But since my fermentation finished ~17% too early I guess I should at least make sure that my scale and thermometer are accurate enough.

Anyway, thanks for the answer, and for your work on the model 🤗
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 23, 2020, 09:55:37 PM
The intent of the model was to help find a starting point that would be pretty close. It actually seems to work a lot better than I though it would across a wide range of temperatures, still, some testing and tweaking should be expected.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ochsavidare on June 24, 2020, 12:34:32 AM
Yes, of course, I was just worried I was doing something wrong.

Thanks again!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Chicago Bob on June 24, 2020, 12:42:11 AM
This might be the most stupid question, but whatever. What do you consider to be a pizza dough that has finished fermenting?

not stupid at all, whatever.
The answer is.....   One that is ready to bake.  🤫🍻
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ochsavidare on June 24, 2020, 01:36:35 AM
not stupid at all, whatever.
The answer is.....   One that is ready to bake.  🤫🍻

Why didn't I think of that! The answer was staring me in the face all the time!  :-D
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: amolapizza on June 27, 2020, 08:40:07 AM
Yes, of course, I was just worried I was doing something wrong.

Nah, it's just in the nature of the beast.  How fast the fermentation goes depends on too many factors.  FWIW I normally go for 60-70% volume expansion when I start to bake, later on balls doubled in size are also OK, just a bit different in how they feel, stretch and bake.

I use a graduated measuring cup for a simple monitoring device.  About 75-80g comes to about 50ml and from how it grows I have an idea of how the balls themselves are doing.  It's not exact but can give an idea as to maybe move the balls somewhere cooler or warmer depending on how they are doing.

I'd make another try with less starter, say 0.3-0.35% if 0.5% put you over the top.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: ochsavidare on June 29, 2020, 07:46:42 AM
Nah, it's just in the nature of the beast.  How fast the fermentation goes depends on too many factors.  FWIW I normally go for 60-70% volume expansion when I start to bake, later on balls doubled in size are also OK, just a bit different in how they feel, stretch and bake.

I use a graduated measuring cup for a simple monitoring device.  About 75-80g comes to about 50ml and from how it grows I have an idea of how the balls themselves are doing.  It's not exact but can give an idea as to maybe move the balls somewhere cooler or warmer depending on how they are doing.

I'd make another try with less starter, say 0.3-0.35% if 0.5% put you over the top.

Thanks, I have a similar method, that's how I can say that it's doubled. The pizzas from the finished dough have been delicious so I'm not that worried, but it's still nice to know everyone else's thoughts.  That's definitely where I'll go next (the temperature where I live has risen even further, so I guess I'll have to adjust some more)  :)
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: saltbreads on August 11, 2020, 10:02:33 AM
Hi,

I really can only think in Centigrade and was wondering if there was a version of the model in deg C ?

Not really a big think as I find the model fantastic.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: HansB on August 11, 2020, 11:22:30 AM
https://lmgtfy.com/?q=F%20to%20C
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 11, 2020, 01:12:55 PM
https://lmgtfy.com/?q=F%20to%20C

Bookmarked!
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: PauloPyzzala on November 20, 2020, 02:38:57 AM
Thanks Craig for this great model! Can I/we get the tables in an Excel? I usually calculate my recipes on my PC and to have your table (with įC) in an Excel sheet would make my life much easier  ;D
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: 02ebz06 on November 20, 2020, 10:42:42 AM
For those inclined to do the conversions themselves...

F = ( C * 1.8 ) + 32

C = ( ( F - 32 ) * 5 ) / 9
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: Ryan R on February 07, 2021, 11:35:03 AM
What percentage of salt is the baseline for this model? Would 0.5% salt make a significant difference in time? I typically use 3% salt for my Neapolitan-ish dough. I tried the search, but could not get a reference.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: HansB on February 07, 2021, 11:46:35 AM
For those inclined to do the conversions themselves...

F = ( C * 1.8 ) + 32

C = ( ( F - 32 ) * 5 ) / 9

For a WAG you can double C and add 30. Or just ask Siri!  :-D
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 07, 2021, 01:38:18 PM
What percentage of salt is the baseline for this model? Would 0.5% salt make a significant difference in time? I typically use 3% salt for my Neapolitan-ish dough. I tried the search, but could not get a reference.

If you're asking if 3% vs. 2.5% will make a big difference, the answer is probably no. If it's 3% vs. 0.5%, it might.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: miz_en_plaz on February 13, 2021, 04:03:19 PM
Have been using this with pretty good success, but I think I have my formulation wrong based on an incorrect assumption of what the starter% means.

Is the starter % the amount of flour in the starter expressed as a percentage of the total flour in a recipe?

So if a recipe uses 1000g flour, 700g water, and 12% starter at 100% hydration, the starter amount would be: 240g? making the new recipe value (in grams):

{:flour 880.0, :water 580.0, :starter 240.0}

And if the hydration of the starter was 80%, the recipe would be (in grams):

{:flour 880.0, :water 684.0, :starter 216.0}

Hopefully my question makes sense, and it's come about because I've been making bread with Ken Forkish's recipes which calculate levain like above.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: 02ebz06 on February 13, 2021, 05:13:51 PM
I may be wrong, but I would think it would be 120g of starter (12% of 1000).
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: miz_en_plaz on February 13, 2021, 05:38:59 PM
I may be wrong, but I would think it would be 120g of starter (12% of 1000).

And yea that's how I had been calculating it aka my gut agrees with you, but my man Forkish going in a different direction and I wanted to see if his thinking was the actual status quo....

side note: I just mixed a new pizza dough with the forkish formula, which essentially doubles the starter :( 30g of starter for a 5% 20 hour bulk at 71 degrees for a paltry two 240g dough balls.
Title: Re: Sourdough starter quantity predictive model
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 13, 2021, 06:06:38 PM
I may be wrong, but I would think it would be 120g of starter (12% of 1000).

Correct. I wouldn't worry about adjusting the water to account for the starter until somewhere in the 7%-10%+ range but something that could vary from person to person.