Sourdough starter quantity predictive model

[TXCraig1]

The definition of finished fermenting varies from person to person, and apparently quite a lot. You're the first on this forum I've seen targeting as low at 1.5x. The model targets 1.7 - 2.0x, so your results are right in line with the expectation. There are all sorts of variables that can affect the results other than the variability of the specific tarter flora. For example, starter activity when used, water and flour temp, mixing time, differential between finished dough temp and fermentation temp, stability of fermentation temp, dough hydration, salt and sugar %, etc.

[ochsavidare]

I see, it’s at least good to know what the model is aiming for. If 1.7-2x is the common aim I might consider going for that also.

Sure, I, of course, realize that there’s a huge set of hidden variables that I have no control over.  But since my fermentation finished ~17% too early I guess I should at least make sure that my scale and thermometer are accurate enough.

Anyway, thanks for the answer, and for your work on the model 🤗

[TXCraig1]

The intent of the model was to help find a starting point that would be pretty close. It actually seems to work a lot better than I though it would across a wide range of temperatures, still, some testing and tweaking should be expected.

[ochsavidare]

Yes, of course, I was just worried I was doing something wrong.

Thanks again!

[Chicago Bob]

This might be the most stupid question, but whatever. What do you consider to be a pizza dough that has finished fermenting?

not stupid at all, whatever.
The answer is.....   One that is ready to bake.  🤫🍻

[ochsavidare]

not stupid at all, whatever.
The answer is.....   One that is ready to bake.  🤫🍻

Why didn't I think of that! The answer was staring me in the face all the time! 

[amolapizza]

Yes, of course, I was just worried I was doing something wrong.

Nah, it's just in the nature of the beast.  How fast the fermentation goes depends on too many factors.  FWIW I normally go for 60-70% volume expansion when I start to bake, later on balls doubled in size are also OK, just a bit different in how they feel, stretch and bake.

I use a graduated measuring cup for a simple monitoring device.  About 75-80g comes to about 50ml and from how it grows I have an idea of how the balls themselves are doing.  It's not exact but can give an idea as to maybe move the balls somewhere cooler or warmer depending on how they are doing.

I'd make another try with less starter, say 0.3-0.35% if 0.5% put you over the top.

[ochsavidare]

Nah, it's just in the nature of the beast.  How fast the fermentation goes depends on too many factors.  FWIW I normally go for 60-70% volume expansion when I start to bake, later on balls doubled in size are also OK, just a bit different in how they feel, stretch and bake.

I use a graduated measuring cup for a simple monitoring device.  About 75-80g comes to about 50ml and from how it grows I have an idea of how the balls themselves are doing.  It's not exact but can give an idea as to maybe move the balls somewhere cooler or warmer depending on how they are doing.

I'd make another try with less starter, say 0.3-0.35% if 0.5% put you over the top.

Thanks, I have a similar method, that's how I can say that it's doubled. The pizzas from the finished dough have been delicious so I'm not that worried, but it's still nice to know everyone else's thoughts.  That's definitely where I'll go next (the temperature where I live has risen even further, so I guess I'll have to adjust some more) 

[saltbreads]

Hi,

I really can only think in Centigrade and was wondering if there was a version of the model in deg C ?

Not really a big think as I find the model fantastic.

[HansB]

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=F%20to%20C

[TXCraig1]

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=F%20to%20C

Bookmarked!

[PauloPyzzala]

Thanks Craig for this great model! Can I/we get the tables in an Excel? I usually calculate my recipes on my PC and to have your table (with °C) in an Excel sheet would make my life much easier 

[02ebz06]

For those inclined to do the conversions themselves...

F = ( C * 1.8 ) + 32

C = ( ( F - 32 ) * 5 ) / 9

[Ryan R]

What percentage of salt is the baseline for this model? Would 0.5% salt make a significant difference in time? I typically use 3% salt for my Neapolitan-ish dough. I tried the search, but could not get a reference.

[HansB]

For those inclined to do the conversions themselves...

F = ( C * 1.8 ) + 32

C = ( ( F - 32 ) * 5 ) / 9

For a WAG you can double C and add 30. Or just ask Siri! 

[TXCraig1]

What percentage of salt is the baseline for this model? Would 0.5% salt make a significant difference in time? I typically use 3% salt for my Neapolitan-ish dough. I tried the search, but could not get a reference.

If you're asking if 3% vs. 2.5% will make a big difference, the answer is probably no. If it's 3% vs. 0.5%, it might.

[miz_en_plaz]

Have been using this with pretty good success, but I think I have my formulation wrong based on an incorrect assumption of what the starter% means.

Is the starter % the amount of flour in the starter expressed as a percentage of the total flour in a recipe?

So if a recipe uses 1000g flour, 700g water, and 12% starter at 100% hydration, the starter amount would be: 240g? making the new recipe value (in grams):

{:flour 880.0, :water 580.0, :starter 240.0}

And if the hydration of the starter was 80%, the recipe would be (in grams):

{:flour 880.0, :water 684.0, :starter 216.0}

Hopefully my question makes sense, and it's come about because I've been making bread with Ken Forkish's recipes which calculate levain like above.

[02ebz06]

I may be wrong, but I would think it would be 120g of starter (12% of 1000).

[miz_en_plaz]

I may be wrong, but I would think it would be 120g of starter (12% of 1000).

And yea that's how I had been calculating it aka my gut agrees with you, but my man Forkish going in a different direction and I wanted to see if his thinking was the actual status quo....

side note: I just mixed a new pizza dough with the forkish formula, which essentially doubles the starter 30g of starter for a 5% 20 hour bulk at 71 degrees for a paltry two 240g dough balls.

[TXCraig1]

I may be wrong, but I would think it would be 120g of starter (12% of 1000).

Correct. I wouldn't worry about adjusting the water to account for the starter until somewhere in the 7%-10%+ range but something that could vary from person to person.