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Author Topic: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results  (Read 244393 times)

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Offline BeanAnimal

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #560 on: August 05, 2021, 06:24:36 PM »
So I headed down a rabbit hole with this thread, data and desire to automate it for ease of use.

I transcribed the data - fit curves (FWIW power curves fit the rows, 3rd and 4th order polynomials fit the columns) - and no matter how much I tweaked things, was not happy with the complexity of the solution or the interpolated values returned by the curves.

I abandoned that effort and have built a Lagrange bicubic interpolation function into the google sheet that holds the data. Much better! I can pick arbitrary yeast concentration or temperature value, as long as they are within the bounds of the table, and get a valid return rise time.

One day next week I will try to tackle the UI portion of the sheet and hope to share it soon after, as long as I am not stepping on anyones toes here.



« Last Edit: August 05, 2021, 06:26:59 PM by BeanAnimal »

Offline ARenko

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #561 on: September 12, 2021, 05:29:31 AM »
I can pick arbitrary yeast concentration or temperature value, as long as they are within the bounds of the table, and get a valid return rise time.
Don't you mean yeast and temperature value?  Also, why do you want to choose the amount of yeast?

Offline BeanAnimal

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #562 on: September 12, 2021, 09:15:37 AM »
Don't you mean yeast and temperature value?  Also, why do you want to choose the amount of yeast?

Technically - or one or another and a time to derive the missing parameter. As it turns out the interpolation worked well enough, but when I built my app I did end up falling back on the curve fit equations (one for each degree F). This proved to be accurate enough for data inside and outside of the table. A single best fit equation got fuzzy around the outer edges so I opted for an equation per curve.

Offline ARenko

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #563 on: September 13, 2021, 07:21:22 PM »
Technically - or one or another and a time to derive the missing parameter. As it turns out the interpolation worked well enough, but when I built my app I did end up falling back on the curve fit equations (one for each degree F). This proved to be accurate enough for data inside and outside of the table. A single best fit equation got fuzzy around the outer edges so I opted for an equation per curve.
I'm still wondering why you'd want to pick a yeast amount.  Do you actually decide a specific yeast amount you want to use first, or are you just trying to cover all options in the event you find a reason to some day?

Offline BeanAnimal

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #564 on: September 14, 2021, 09:25:13 AM »
There are three variables - Temperature, Concentration and Time.  Choosing any two allows you to derive the third.

When solving for 2 or more fermentation stages (mathematically) one must enter a concentration (derived from the prior stage by solving for time and temp) and a new temperature to time to get the new time. That is a mouthful... But suffice to say, the equation is already there.

In a practical sense we need an equation arranged to solve for concentration and the same equation arranged to solve for time. Solving for temperature would be possible, but I don't have the ability to adjust temperature easily so why build to solve for it? It is easier to adjust the base (real) concentration to accommodate the desired time window.

So lets say that I have to meet the following real world criteria


It is Friday at 10am and I have people coming for Pizza on Sunday at 10pm
My home is 72F
My Refrigerator is 35F
Outdoor temp is going to be 75F by 8pm on Sunday

It follows that I have 72 hours until the dough needs to be ready.

I know that I want a 2 hour bulk on the counter and 2 hours on the try outside during the part (lets ignore the actual time it takes the dough balls to warm or cool at when moved).

That gives me ~68 hours bulk cold ferment.

The only way to solve this is by choosing a yeast concentration to fit that window.

Pretty easy using the chart or one of the several multi stage calculators that have been published. In my case, I have a concentration slider and hour spinners and can solve the problem is 15 seconds. I enter the number of desired hours at each stage and then slide the concentrations slider until I hit 100% fermentation (clipped on this smaller iphone).








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Offline ARenko

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #565 on: September 14, 2021, 11:30:10 AM »
What I was getting from the original post I quoted (where you said you can pick a yeast concentration) was that you are choosing yeast % (e.g. I want to use .1% yeast in this batch) and solving for one of the other two.  I guess I misunderstood.  It would make no sense to me to constrain yourself to a yeast % from the outset.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2021, 12:32:52 PM by ARenko »

Offline BeanAnimal

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #566 on: September 14, 2021, 01:00:55 PM »
What I was getting from the original post I quoted (where you said you can pick a yeast concentration) was that you are choosing yeast % (e.g. I want to use .1% yeast in this batch) and solving for one of the other two.  I guess I misunderstood.  It would make no sense to me to constrain yourself to a yeast % from the outset.

Well you would need to pick yeast % and Temp to solve for time and that is in fact what you do when you do a multistage ferment ;)

Offline ARenko

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #567 on: September 14, 2021, 08:21:28 PM »
Well you would need to pick yeast % and Temp to solve for time and that is in fact what you do when you do a multistage ferment ;)
Sure, but as in your example (and what it looks like in your app) you adjust the yeast slider until you get 100% fermentation according to your time and temp constraints/ inputs.  Like I said - I misunderstood what you meant by choosing yeast. 

Offline BeanAnimal

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #568 on: September 14, 2021, 08:42:38 PM »
Correct!  You can also select a yeast percentage and adjust time or temperate (or both) for 1 or more stages  until you get to 100 (or whatever your target is). The chart works just fine… I just decided to try my hand at an IOS app and kept adding options. Feature creep will likely prevent me from ever being done. Though, I am not really enjoying IOS development and am ready to move on. Was going to have it store recipes, do conversions on the fly, push reminders for when to change stages, etc
« Last Edit: September 14, 2021, 08:47:11 PM by BeanAnimal »

Offline Roberto_buonissimo

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #569 on: October 15, 2021, 05:50:12 AM »
hi - i have just a question please ..
i know that in this chart the total fermentation time is specified.(bulk & balls)

but what i dont understand is for how long i should keep the balls than ??

say i want a 24h fermentation for how long should i let rise the balls (minimum and maximum?)
because the longer the fermentation time the less yeast is required - so to speak it takes also way longer for the balls to get the right shape and airiness ?

thanks so much guys

cheers from Austria
Robert

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Offline TXCraig1

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #570 on: October 15, 2021, 08:54:57 AM »
I don't understand your question?
"We make great pizza, with sourdough when we can, baker's yeast when we must, but always great pizza."  
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Offline Roberto_buonissimo

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #571 on: October 15, 2021, 09:25:36 AM »
Hi Craig,
When I have a total proofing time of 24hours..
How long should I bulk and how long in balls?
1 hour bulk 23h balls
10 hours bulk 14h balls
12 hours bulk 12h balls
20 hours bulk 4h balls

Or how should I go about??
What is the difference

Thanks!

Offline BeanAnimal

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #572 on: October 15, 2021, 10:50:34 AM »
Hi Craig,
When I have a total proofing time of 24hours..
How long should I bulk and how long in balls?
1 hour bulk 23h balls
10 hours bulk 14h balls
12 hours bulk 12h balls
20 hours bulk 4h balls

Or how should I go about??
What is the difference

Thanks!

It is really not going to make much of a difference unless the bulk batch is MUCH larger than the balls (I.E. 10kg of dough vs 1kg balls) and "mass effect" will have some... well effect.   The biggest difference is if you are moving from warm to cold (or visa-versa). A small ball will reach equillibirum temperature long before a large bulk mass.  That means that the "chart" will be more accurate for "balls" when accounting for 1 or more temperature changes.

Offline Roberto_buonissimo

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #573 on: October 15, 2021, 11:01:19 AM »
Ah OK, but I don't want to have temperature changes just room temperature about 22c
So I could really do all the proofing in balls (24h) so to speak? Would the balls not become very hard to handle?
I think 12h bulk and 12h in balls would be good? (1kg of flour batch)
I also assume that the hydration would be having a big impact of how long I should proof the balls?

Offline BeanAnimal

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #574 on: October 15, 2021, 11:16:24 AM »
Ah OK, but I don't want to have temperature changes just room temperature about 22c
So I could really do all the proofing in balls (24h) so to speak? Would the balls not become very hard to handle?
I think 12h bulk and 12h in balls would be good? (1kg of flour batch)
I also assume that the hydration would be having a big impact of how long I should proof the balls?

I think you will need to do a bit of experimentation to see what works best. If you do the majority of the rise in bulk, the dough may not recover as well if balling only for the last few hours... but then again, you may like the results. It also depends on how you rise your dough balls - trays, bags, bowls, etc.

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Online Pete-zza

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #575 on: October 15, 2021, 01:01:27 PM »
Ah OK, but I don't want to have temperature changes just room temperature about 22c
So I could really do all the proofing in balls (24h) so to speak? Would the balls not become very hard to handle?
I think 12h bulk and 12h in balls would be good? (1kg of flour batch)
I also assume that the hydration would be having a big impact of how long I should proof the balls?
Roberto,

It might help to know what type of pizza you want to make. For example, the classic Neapolitan style of pizza typically calls for a bulk fermentation followed by forming the dough balls, both at room temperature.

Peter

Offline TXCraig1

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #576 on: October 16, 2021, 08:59:34 AM »
The amount of time in balls is largely a matter of personal preference. I generally like 12-24 hours. For me less than 12 and the tough is too elastic. More than 24 and the dough is too extensible. That being said, there are many factors, so you really need to experiment and see what works best for you.
"We make great pizza, with sourdough when we can, baker's yeast when we must, but always great pizza."  
Craig's Neapolitan Garage

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