Pizza Making Forum

Pizza Making => General Pizza Making => Topic started by: TXCraig1 on August 07, 2013, 05:34:50 PM

Title: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 07, 2013, 05:34:50 PM
EDIT: The latest yeast quantity prediction model can be found at Reply 188 at http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,26831.msg349349.html#msg349349 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,26831.msg349349.html#msg349349); for a version of the chart with the yeast percents stated out to three decimal places, see Reply 202 at http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg355933#msg355933 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg355933#msg355933); for a further expanded version, see Reply 399 at https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg511590#msg511590; for a 48-hour chart, see Reply 406 at https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg511818#msg511818; beyond 48 hours, see Reply 202 at https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg355933#msg355933

The model works the same way as my sourdough starter predictive model (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,22649.0.html (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,22649.0.html)) except it's for baker's yeast (ADY, IDY, and CY). It's still in the developmental stages, so please don't rely on it yet.

What I'm hoping you will do at this point is tell me where the predictions differ from your proven results. For example, it predicts 0.05% (0.048% column on the chart) IDY fermented at 70F will take 12 hours. Maybe you've done something similar, and it only took 8 hours - please post what you did - your yeast%, temperature(s), and time(s), so I can fine tune it.

Thanks in advance.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: deb415611 on August 07, 2013, 05:39:01 PM
These charts are awesome Craig, thank you. 

Yeast %'s are what I struggle with most.    I'll be using this and will let you know variances if any.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JimmyG on August 07, 2013, 08:43:14 PM
Great idea Craig. Is there a regression or polynomial equation that you are currently working from? If so, would you be willing to share your current equation? Just curious is all. :)
Jim
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Pete-zza on August 07, 2013, 08:53:48 PM
Craig,

To add or expand upon JimmyG's question, are you using a reference standard of some sort, such as the doubling of the dough--bulk or individual dough balls?

Peter
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 07, 2013, 11:04:06 PM
I started here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,26602.0.html. (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,26602.0.html.)  Converted it to yeast % based on 60%HR and decided to use 25C as my baseline model. Why 25C? 25C = 77F which is the temperature I keep my house and I like the way it sounds. 7 is a lucky number, right? So two 7's must be twice as lucky - all of which of course means it was a SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess). Also, when I first plugged it into the model, some points I felt good about around the table were reasonably close. Basically, the model starts with this curve and then uses a growth model to extrapolate across the temperature range.

I had a very hard time finding any good data on growth rate at temperature for strains of  S. cerevisiae used in baking, so I used the model proposed by Ganzle et al. (1998) - http://aem.asm.org/content/64/7/2616.full.pdf. (http://aem.asm.org/content/64/7/2616.full.pdf.) wiggle fit for baker's yeast as best I could with the data I have. I started with Salvad et al. (http://aem.highwire.org/content/77/7/2292.full.pdf (http://aem.highwire.org/content/77/7/2292.full.pdf)) and Serra et al. (http://oatao.univ-toulouse.fr/1556/1/Serra_1556.pdf (http://oatao.univ-toulouse.fr/1556/1/Serra_1556.pdf)) and then hand adjusted the curves and let Excel Solver fit them to the Ganzle model until I hit or was reasonably close to data I feel good about at several points around the chart you see above. I checked it against some of the data Peter pulled for me a while back and it was generally in the ball park of the points I checked.

If I get some feedback, I can easily adjust both the baseline and the growth model.

Ganzle model:
growth rate at temperature T = a ∙ xb ∙ e-c∙x

x = Tmax - T

Tmax is the maximum temperature at which the yeast will grow.

In the model right now,

Tmax = 45C
a= 0.02645608
b= 2.037020784
c= -0.198964236
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 07, 2013, 11:09:51 PM
The fermentation time in the charts is total bulk + balls. Reballing, punching down, and other optional activities that would serve to artificially extend fermentation will not work with this model - or at least you would have to allow for extra time from what is shown.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JimmyG on August 08, 2013, 08:38:42 AM
Craig I'm guessing the parameter e-c∙x stands for the natural log raised to a time constant or a doubling time or sorts, is that correct? The authors didn't define their terms very well.  :-D In any case very cool and a great idea you are developing.

Jim
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 08, 2013, 08:57:50 AM
Jim, ex is the exponential function (natural log would be the inverse - log base e or ln). I don't know that it represents anything particular - rather the whole function including that term appears to be a good generalized model for microbial growth.

CL
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JimmyG on August 08, 2013, 11:20:56 AM
Quote
ex is the exponential function (natural log would be the inverse - log base e or ln)
Yeah thats right, I was looking in my statistics text book at the logistic regression function (1/1+e-x), and said natural log for some reason, but yeah, ex is absolutely the exponential function. But yeah I would guess that term probably stands for some sort of exponential doubling time or growth of the bacteria. 
Jim
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 08, 2013, 05:26:55 PM
Here is my growth model along with Serra and Salvado for comparison. Remember that while the Serra and Salvado charts are both for particular strains of S. cerevisiae, neither is a strain found in baker's yeast. My model was built from these two and wiggle fit to various known baker's yeast data points. The more data people can give me, the better I can fit the curve and the more accurate the chart will be.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JHutchins on August 08, 2013, 10:43:30 PM
Craig, what do you consider to be the fermentation time? The time to double in volume?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 08, 2013, 11:42:32 PM
Craig, what do you consider to be the fermentation time? The time to double in volume?

Ready to bake.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Barry on August 09, 2013, 05:26:56 AM
Hi Craig,

This is a fantastic tool!!  Thank you for sharing.

Best wishes

Barry in Cape Town
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JHutchins on August 09, 2013, 08:06:11 AM
Ready to bake.

Isn't that very subjective? At what point do you consider it ready to bake?

I use the seed method to measure dough rise (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=6914.0 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=6914.0)). Pizzas seem to turn out fine between 1 1/4" and 1 1/2" which is a doubling and tripling in volume. The fermentation time for each is very different but they are both ready to bake.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 09, 2013, 09:34:47 AM
Isn't that very subjective? At what point do you consider it ready to bake?

I use the seed method to measure dough rise (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=6914.0 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=6914.0)). Pizzas seem to turn out fine between 1 1/4" and 1 1/2" which is a doubling and tripling in volume. The fermentation time for each is very different but they are both ready to bake.

I see your point. I was trying to avoid the opposite condition - where I specify 2X and users say "what if I don't bake at 2X?" If I had enough data, I think I would prefer this method as it should guide the data to the mean as opposed to me setting the mean at an arbitrary figure - as you noted you bake between 2X and 3X.

Specifying 2X is probably the more objective way to do it - particularly given the limited feedback.

To be honest, I'd be happy if people woul give me some feedback either way.  :-D
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: parallei on August 09, 2013, 11:26:34 AM
I've never paid much attention to an increase in volume with dough balls, though maybe I should.  I do pay attention with proofing with bread.  I look at the bottom of the dough and its overall condition.  I suspect many just do this.

Perhaps folks could attach a photo of their dough that shows when they've deemed it "done" and ready for the bake.

For fermentations done in the fridge, it might also be helpful to see and out of the fridge and after "x" hours at room temp.  Mine change a bit over the two hours or so at room temp.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: scott123 on August 09, 2013, 01:12:45 PM
Craig, yeast activity is impacted by variables other than yeast%, temperature and time. These other variables include:

hydration
salt
oil/fat
sugar
yeast age
dough ball size
gluten development
altitude
water chemistry (level of chlorination especially)
container material and thickness (conductivity if ambient and dough temps vary, along with heat dissipation from fermentation)
flour chemistry (enzyme activity/damaged starch etc.)

Some of these variables might have lesser impact than others, but, collectively, they put the usefulness of member feedback in question.  If, say, you wanted to base the model on IDY NP, then the use of the same flour, typically tight hydration and salt levels, along with very similar dough ball sizes might help you fine tune the model for NP bakers, but asking everyone to give you yeast%, temp and time numbers isn't going to give you useful data, imo. I could easily make two doughs with identical yeast %, ferment them at the same temp, but, by modifying the other variables, double or half the time when they're 2x-3x volume (aka 'ready').
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 09, 2013, 03:20:15 PM
Craig, yeast activity is impacted by variables other than yeast%, temperature and time. These other variables include...

Some of these variables might have lesser impact than others, but, collectively, they put the usefulness of member feedback in question.

I'm well aware of that; notwithstanding, I disagree with your conclusion. In my experience, if those factors are held within relatively "normal" ranges they* will not have a particularly meaningful impact on fermentation time not even collectively certainly nothing outside the scope of this project. Actually, Id say you are completely wrong about the usefulness member feedback, the more data I get, the more the noise from the factors you noted is cancelled out. And give me a little credit; I know an outlier when I see it.

Quote
If, say, you wanted to base the model on IDY NP, then the use of the same flour, typically tight hydration and salt levels, along with very similar dough ball sizes might help you fine tune the model for NP bakers, but asking everyone to give you yeast%, temp and time numbers isn't going to give you useful data, imo.

IMO, you're wrong. With a little member feedback, this could be plenty accurate to peg a starting point to work from for all sorts of dough styles NP, NY, American, etc. Thats the goal to help people find a starting point not to tell them exactly how to formulate their dough.

Quote
I could easily make two doughs with identical yeast %, ferment them at the same temp, but, by modifying the other variables, double or half the time when they're 2x-3x volume (aka 'ready').

Double or half the time? Come on now, who are you trying to kid? Perhaps with some fringe, outlier formulations that nobody would ever use, but even then I doubt it not even by doing something totally goofy with the pH or sugar. When it comes to fermentation within typical parameters, nothing even comes close to the impact of yeast quantity and time. If Im wrong, lets see the formulas and pictures to prove it.



*Yeast age? Seriously? How many active members do we have that dont pay attention to the condition of their yeast? Any member who does not think it is important to use yeast that is in date please dont reply to this thread.  ;)  And unless you have some bizarrely chlorinated water that the EPA should probably know about, it's not going to hurt your yeast.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: scott123 on August 09, 2013, 04:24:00 PM
Craig, define "normal." 45% hydration is perfectly normal for a cracker crust, while 75% and higher is normal for some styles of Sicilian.  Hydration dictates water activity and water activity is a major component of yeast activity.

Malted flour is 'normal' for NY. Unmalted flour is 'normal' for NP.  Because of the lack of enzymes/enzyme generated sugar, you're looking at two different rates of fermentation.

0% sugar is normal for NP, but I've seen American frequently go as high as 4% sugar.  Huge difference.

Active members who work with yeast tend to overwhelmingly work with bottles.  Yeast packets have dates that tend to creep up on you. Bottles are good for a year or two.  I would be shocked if any of the active members working with bottled yeast knew what the expiration date on their yeast was. I don't.   At the same time, though, it's very common for members to go through these bottles of yeast slowly.  I've had a bottle of yeast for a year.  Refrigerated bottled yeast doesn't die after a year, but it loses some of it's punch. 

Based upon my own observations, I'm being very conservative in saying that yeast loses at least 15% of it's vitality over the course of a year.

Do you really feel that the EPA has rigid guidelines on how much chlorine is allowed in tap water?  Really, Craig, the government?  ;D They have relatively tight guidelines on bacteria counts, but, whatever methods are used to achieve those bacteria counts have a lot of leeway. I'm sure you're aware of the multiple methods in which water is purified. You can have communities using other methods than chlorine (ozone, uv light, etc.), resulting in water with no chlorine, and, for those communities that do use chlorine, it has an incredibly large range.  I don't need water reports to be aware of this.  I can taste it in the places I visit.  Some places have lots of chlorine, some less, some none.

Yeast is a fungus and chlorine is a fungicide. Varying amounts of chlorine (from zero % to water that tastes and smells like a swimming pool) while promote/inhibit yeast growth.

Speaking of fungicides, salt is a fungicide.  1.75% salt is 'normal' for NY and 3% salt is 'normal' for NP.  Do you really feel that a difference in 1.25% isn't going impact yeast growth perceptibly?

I've seen what hydration can do to yeast activity.  I don't need studies to prove that.  I've not worked with unmalted flours, but I have been tracking typical unmalted yeast quantities, and they are, across the board, higher than quantities required for malted flours. As I've said, I've seen yeast lose it's umph over time. I've also worked with chlorinated water and unchlorinated water and I've witnessed the effects of chlorine. You want proof? My memories are proof.

Do any of these variables impact dough as much as time or temp?  Individually, no, but, together, it all adds up.

You give me a 48 room temp NP dough, and, with a 'normal' formula, I can at the same temp, give you a dough that's ready in 24 or 96. I might be able to do it with just hydration (45% and 75%), but that could be a bit too ambitious.  Hydration + chlorinated water/non chlorinated + 0%/4% sugar + unmalted/malted flour + 1.75%/3% salt + fresh/1 year old yeast- well, that's a piece of cake.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 09, 2013, 06:36:55 PM
Craig, define "normal." 45% hydration is perfectly normal for a cracker crust, while 75% and higher is normal for some styles of Sicilian.  Hydration dictates water activity and water activity is a major component of yeast activity.

I put quotes around it precisely because I dont think defining it is necessary. Its just a distraction that will generate off-topic questions and discussion like this. If you insist, it would be something like this: 65% +/- 10%HR, 2% +/- 2% sugar, 2% +/- 2% oil, 2% +/- 1% salt, tap or bottled water, malted or un-malted flour, and yeast (ADY or IDY) 1 year old or less or fresh CY. That should be no surprise to you. I bet this represents 99% of what is posted in the NY and NP threads. Thats why I didnt define it. You know Im not talking about cracker crusts. Im talking about normal flat types of pizza the stuff most people here want to make.

I think maybe youve missed the whole point of this exercise. No less than 25 people have asked me to come up with a chart similar to the SD predictive chart but for bakers yeast, and just like that chart, its intended to be a starting point not a guaranteed solution to every formulation question. Today if someone has a particular dough and wants to increase or decrease the fermentation time or maybe try something new from scratch, they could look through 100s of posts and never find the yeast information they need to get started. This chart is intended to simplify that process to give people a place to start. They will still need to experiment and fine tune things.

Ive worked with malted and un-malted flour; tap water, RO water, and bottled water; salt from 1% - 3.1%; sugar from 0% - 4%; oil from 0% - 3%; ADY and IDY some not perfectly fresh; and I believe that while these ranges could introduce some noise, given that I get even a dozen or so responses, I can make a useful chart. But I need some data. When you look through the pages here, it seems that almost everyone cold ferments. The variability afforded in cold fermenting (you can let the same dough go for a wide range of days as Tom proves over and over) makes that data less valuable but not worthless. None of this withstanding, I think if the model is well tuned above refrigerator temps, it will also provide a reasonable baseline for cold fermenting.

Statistics are a beautiful thing.  They have a wonderful way of teasing out the data you want from a jumbled mess. All these things you bring up are just noise and noise cancels itself out with enough data allowing the signal to come through. The more data I can get, the better. Though it doesnt look like anyone wants to help, so this may all be a moot point anyway.

Quote
Do any of these variables impact dough as much as time or temp?  Individually, no, but, together, it all adds up.

You give me a 48 room temp NP dough, and, with a 'normal' formula, I can at the same temp, give you a dough that's ready in 24 or 96. I might be able to do it with just hydration (45% and 75%), but that could be a bit too ambitious.  Hydration + chlorinated water/non chlorinated + 0%/4% sugar + unmalted/malted flour + 1.75%/3% salt + fresh/1 year old yeast- well, that's a piece of cake.

Like I said, youd have to go to some outlier formulations that nobody using this chart would be making with water you put bleach in and yeast you should have thrown away 3 years ago. Also like I said, I can spot an outlier and take it out of the data.

If you really believe youre right and youre not basing the whole thing on a red herring like making a cracker crust and a focaccia when neither is within the scope of the project, or using bleach water or old yeast, I propose a challenge:

I'll even give you most of the hydration range you want: 50-75%HR (if you can point me to a non-crackerish formula using 50%HR else the lowest regular pizza HR you can find), 2% +/- 2% sugar, 2% +/- 1% salt, tap or bottled water, malted or un-malted flour, and yeast (ADY or IDY) 1 year old or less you pick and choose however you like. Lets see you come up with two doughs with a range of fermentation from 24 to 96 hours with the same amount of yeast and fermented at the exact same temperature. Pick the formulas, and Ill do the same experiment on this end, and well see who is right. One other thing - since your original objection was that the you couldn't trust submitted data because of the variations introduced by elements such as these, we have to assume working formulas. So whatever two formulas you come up with both must be able to make an American, NYish, or NPish pizza in the home oven - the dough must be able to be opened by hand, and it must eat at least OK when topped and baked.

What do you say?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: SF_Pizzero on August 09, 2013, 09:16:16 PM
Here's my attempt to help get the stat ball rolling.

Craig, though I have not used IDY or CY, based on my relatively limited experience with ADY, the fermentation times shown in the model (at least at the yeast quantities and temperatures I've used) look to be on the low side.   

For instance, I've used Jim Lahey's no-knead approach in the past with good results:  70% hydration, 3.2% salt, 0.2% ADY, 18 hour ferment at about 72 F.   My ready-to-bake times are consistent with those numbers.  Flour use has been a number of combinations of AP and high-gluten with no visible difference in state of readiness (I've done them side by side). 

More recently, using Caputo flour, 64% hydration, 2.9% salt, and 0.13% ADY, I've reached ready-to-bake after about 24 hours at 65 F (though I often need to bring it up into the mid-70s for the last couple of hours).

Based on the above examples, my fermentation times with ADY are quite a bit longer than those predicted by the model.  Though I appreciate this is my first substantive post (and there may be concerns regarding my credibility), I have lurked for a while and my ready-to-bake determinations are similar to Craig's based on his postings of the appearance of the dough balls through the bottom of the dough containers.   I'll try to post some pictures of the results of the above-mentioned bakes within the next few days.

For what it's worth regarding the debate on the particulars, the tap water I use here in the Bay Area (from Hetch Hetchy in Yosemite) is in my estimation, on the lower end of the spectrum for chlorine and other additives. 

Stefan



Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 09, 2013, 10:14:56 PM
Thank you for the post. Let's keep the data points coming and see how it plays out. I'm certainly not saying the chart as it stands is correct. I need all the data points I can get - those that disagree with the chart and those that agree are both important.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JimmyG on August 13, 2013, 12:59:40 AM
Biga from scratch:
100% AP
55% Water (initial water temp 74F)
0.25% IDY
Dough Temp after mixing: 76.2F
Room Temp 78F
Doubling time: 2.68 hours

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: RobynB on August 13, 2013, 02:46:19 PM
Craig, I answered you this in a message back in January, don't know if you want me to answer again, but here:

SAF Instant Dry Yeast, red bag not gold.  I use ~1/8th tsp, +/- depending on fermentation temp, for a batch which is based on 1000g 00 flour, usually 59-62 HD.  I do a short mix/knead (about 3 minutes at lowest speed in Bosch Compact Mixer) then roughly ball and let sit covered for an hour, then I ball into a tight smooth ball and bulk overnight, 8-12 hours depending on room temp, which is usually 60-70F.  Obviously, if it's closer to 60, I bulk longer, and if it's warmer, shorter.  Then I ball and into trays.  If it's warm (over 70) I usually stash them in the fridge for part of the balled time - if it's very warm out I leave them in longer to prevent over-proofing.  I probably work with cooler / less developed dough balls than a lot of people do, from what I've seen.  From the time I start mixing until I use the balls is probably ~20 hours.

Sorry, I'm not super scientific, I do a lot by look/feel of dough. 
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on August 21, 2013, 09:17:25 AM
Craig, my data so far.  1000 grams Caputo mixed with filtered water, 62%.  0.2 grams of IDY for 0.02%. ( Although I weighed the yeast, it was a 2/3 filled 1/8 teaspoon of yeast, or 1/12 of a teaspoon ).   Bulk ferment at 67 degrees for 24 hours.  Balled and put back at 67 degrees (basement floor temp that varies by a degree or two in either direction.  In next post will be pics from this AM, 34 hours fermentation.  I am at work now and hoping to bake at 6PM.  Hope my balls aren't overblown.  Mark
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on August 21, 2013, 09:22:35 AM
Not ready yet
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 21, 2013, 09:30:25 AM
Craig, my data so far.  1000 grams Caputo mixed with filtered water, 62%.  0.2 grams of IDY for 0.02%. ( Although I weighed the yeast, it was a 2/3 filled 1/8 teaspoon of yeast, or 1/12 of a teaspoon ).   Bulk ferment at 67 degrees for 24 hours.  Balled and put back at 67 degrees (basement floor temp that varies by a degree or two in either direction.  In next post will be pics from this AM, 34 hours fermentation.  I am at work now and hoping to bake at 6PM.  Hope my balls aren't overblown.  Mark

If the model is right, they would need about 39 hours total. If those pics are at 34 hours, I'm guessing 39 total might not be far off.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on August 21, 2013, 07:26:20 PM
Dough at 12 noon today.  Ready to bake.  Decided to have son at home refrigerate dough to retard.  Great bake tonight.  Craig, your table is spot on!  Mark
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on August 21, 2013, 08:17:43 PM
In looking at the 39 hour ferment dough, it looks ready to be baked right then, but I guess it could go another hour or two, easily.  Related to this, can we theorize that cold ferments may be much less useful than most of us believe.  Instead of dropping temperature, can we drop yeast % instead?  This has commercial relevance with refrigeration issues.  I will try this on my NY dough and report results.    Mark
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 21, 2013, 10:05:05 PM
can we theorize that cold ferments may be much less useful than most of us believe. 

That's a fact not a theory.  ;)

Even 72 hours is not a problem for fermenting in the mid 60's - particularly at larger scales where it is simpler to measure a small % of yeast.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: deb415611 on August 30, 2013, 08:13:05 PM
shooting for 11 hours, room temp is generally 77 degrees though morning was slightly cooler.   10 hours on chart was .032 and 12 hours was .04 so I used .036% IDY.    GM neapolitan flour ,  61%, 2.5 % salt


mixed at 7:10 room temp 75
bulk until 10:15 then balled , room temp still 75
room temp at 12:40 77 degrees and was steady through bake time
pic 1 at 2:30
pic 2 at 4:20
pic 3 at 6:10 - 11 hours exactly  - first two pizzas were made
pic 4 at 6:37
pic 5 crumb of 1st pizza
pic 5 crumb of last pizza

hope this helps,  I have used it a few other times but haven't kept track of actual room temp and it has been in ball park.  I'll try to keep track of a few future ones also, I want to do a 2 and 3 day to see the difference.    I have used the sourdough chart a few times as well with good results.  Thank you Craig!




Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 01, 2013, 10:07:14 AM
shooting for 11 hours, room temp is generally 77 degrees though morning was slightly cooler.   10 hours on chart was .032 and 12 hours was .04 so I used .036% IDY.    GM neapolitan flour ,  61%, 2.5 % salt


mixed at 7:10 room temp 75
bulk until 10:15 then balled , room temp still 75
room temp at 12:40 77 degrees and was steady through bake time
pic 1 at 2:30
pic 2 at 4:20
pic 3 at 6:10 - 11 hours exactly  - first two pizzas were made
pic 4 at 6:37
pic 5 crumb of 1st pizza
pic 5 crumb of last pizza

hope this helps,  I have used it a few other times but haven't kept track of actual room temp and it has been in ball park.  I'll try to keep track of a few future ones also, I want to do a 2 and 3 day to see the difference.    I have used the sourdough chart a few times as well with good results.  Thank you Craig!

Deb, thank you for the detail info!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on September 01, 2013, 12:45:51 PM
Deb, your pizza looks good.  Your dough is really developed at the end,
more than mine usually is.  Right now I have a 0.02% dough at 40 hours at 67 degrees.  I am going to push it longer and see what happens.    Mark
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on September 01, 2013, 04:49:17 PM
44 hours
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: deb415611 on September 01, 2013, 05:01:04 PM
Deb, thank you for the detail info!

you are welcome, thanks for the chart.   One important detail I left out was that the water I used was room temp
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 05, 2013, 11:13:45 AM
The data so far suggests that the chart is reasonably reliable, at least between 60 and 80F. 

If anybody has a workflow that is not in line with the chart's predictions, please post it.

Thanks,

Craig
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on September 05, 2013, 04:05:20 PM
That's a fact not a theory.  ;)

Even 72 hours is not a problem for fermenting in the mid 60's - particularly at larger scales where it is simpler to measure a small % of yeast.

Fascinating project Craig. If I get a chance I'll try to send you some data. I don't usually take all the temps that you need, but that doesn't mean I can't. Cold Fermentation is less useful? Are you being tongue in cheek with that comment or is there really a debate on that? Is there a thread?

Thanks,
jb
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on September 05, 2013, 04:07:41 PM
In my Cold Fermentation process the dough starts out at 77ish (room temp while mixing and balling) then goes to 39ish and then gets about 4 hours at room temp before baking. Does or can the chart take such variance into account?

Thanks,
jb
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 05, 2013, 04:57:51 PM
Cold Fermentation is less useful? Are you being tongue in cheek with that comment or is there really a debate on that?

It's no secret that I'm not a fan of cold fermentation. I think it results in sub-optimal dough.

With respect to this table specifically, I think it's pretty good between 60 and 80F, but at refrigerator temps, I think it is predicting a bit long. I'm working on it.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 05, 2013, 05:00:49 PM
In my Cold Fermentation process the dough starts out at 77ish (room temp while mixing and balling) then goes to 39ish and then gets about 4 hours at room temp before baking. Does or can the chart take such variance into account?

Thanks,
jb

Yes, it inherently does take some measure of that into account, but There is no way to adjust for the changes specifically. The goal of the table it to be able to find a starting point that will be reasonably close to where you want to be. You will still have to experiment, but hopefully this will significantly cut down the experimentation required.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on September 05, 2013, 05:03:37 PM
It's no secret that I'm not a fan of cold fermentation. I think it results in sub-optimal dough.

With respect to this table specifically, I think it's pretty good between 60 and 80F, but at refrigerator temps, I think it is predicting a bit long. I'm working on it.

Is that suboptimal in general or for NP pies specifically? Think I'll go search for CF on the garage thread.

Thanks,
B

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 05, 2013, 05:25:56 PM
Is that suboptimal in general or for NP pies specifically? Think I'll go search for CF on the garage thread.

Yes, I can't really speak to other styles though I bet it applies to them as well. You won't find much on CF in the garage thread other than perhaps me saying I don't like it. I don't think any CF dough has ever passed through the door of my WFO other than a couple that someone else made.

I've experimented at length with CF dough in my home oven and when I was using my BBQ mod, and my best IDY/ADY pies have all been at room temp (>60F). And with SD, forget about it.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on September 05, 2013, 05:37:05 PM
Yes, I can't really speak to other styles though I bet it applies to them as well. You won't find much on CF in the garage thread other than perhaps me saying I don't like it. I don't think any CF dough has ever passed through the door of my WFO other than a couple that someone else made.

I've experimented at length with CF dough in my home oven and when I was using my BBQ mod, and my best IDY/ADY pies have all been at room temp (>60F). And with SD, forget about it.

There's some good info in the Entire Garage Process thread, http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,20479.0.html (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,20479.0.html) . I just read the post about the different acids that are created at different temps. I see more experimenting in my future.

Thanks,
jb
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: hotsawce on September 10, 2013, 11:10:27 PM
Awesome stuff. I'm really looking forward to trying this if I grab some fresh yeast.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: henkverhaar on September 11, 2013, 02:36:57 AM
Jim, ex is the exponential function (natural log would be the inverse - log base e or ln). I don't know that it represents anything particular - rather the whole function including that term appears to be a good generalized model for microbial growth.

It represents exponential growth, which is an approximation of microbial growth in a number of ways, but primarily in the sense that it assumes unlimited resources. It represents in fact only the first part (half) of a logistic growth curve, which is a good representation of growth under constrained (limited resources) conditions - which is what most real life situations are: at a certain point in time, food runs out, or the capacity of generating food does no longer keep up with growth (which would immediately be an example of real life being more complicated than even a simple logistic model).
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 11, 2013, 03:15:01 AM
This isn't a growth model. It's a rate model. Resources are not a constraint. There are ample resources by definition. It's not time dependent; it's temperature dependent.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on September 12, 2013, 10:49:37 AM
0.10% IDY 68 degrees. 63 % hydration.  Photo is at 9 hours.  Not quite ready for baking - table predicted 7 hours.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 12, 2013, 11:23:20 AM
0.10% IDY 68 degrees. 63 % hydration.  Photo is at 9 hours.  Not quite ready for baking - table predicted 7 hours.

That's interesting. In the revised model I'm working on, that particular data point didn't change. It's still 7 hours. If anything I would have guessed it to be wrong in the other direction.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on September 19, 2013, 10:59:19 AM
I tried to make a room temp dough yesterday. Based on the chart 72 hours at 68 degrees would use 0.013% ADY. I plug it into my spreadsheet and it comes up with 0.06825 g for 525 g of flour. I mix my dough and make up 3 balls and place them in Tupperware with lids. By morning the lids have busted off and the dough has more than doubled. I recheck the numbers and realize my mistake. I read it as needing almost 7 tenths of a gram, 7 times what the chart calls for. I'm sure the chart is correct and I'm just posting this to double check, but I'm pretty sure I should have used slightly less than 1 tenth of a gram? That just seems like an impossibly small amount. In addition the smallest amount my scale will do is 1 tenth of a gram. I suppose I could approximate such a small amount...or just make more dough. :)

Thanks,
jb

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 19, 2013, 05:15:47 PM
You read the chart right, 72h at 68F = 0.013% ADY.

I also agree that 0.06825g ADY for 525g flour is correct to hit 0.013%. 7 tenths of a gram (0.7) would be 10X more than called for not 7X.

Yes a little less than a 10th of a gram -  7 hundredths of a gram for your formula. One way to do this is dissolve 1.0g yeast in 99.0g water and use 7ml or 7g of the resulting solution. I'd probably use 8ml or 8g just to give a little room for error. I'd rather err or the high side with quantities this small.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on September 19, 2013, 06:38:12 PM
Good to know, Next time I'll get it right. Funny thing is my wife heard the lids popping off in the middle of the night and thought someone was breaking in. :)

Thanks,
jb
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JConk007 on September 19, 2013, 11:44:44 PM
.11 IDY 60%  last Night  temps  low 60's 7 hours not dough was quite there
Last week  .14 with low 70s was right on your table data. Tonights dough for saturday did .12 and temps  63-65 will be about 12 hour bulk  time I get to ball it. I will provide pics in am.
From What I am seeing the data you have  is quite close to actual "ready times"
I do extend in the fridge after this initialferment based on  space, room  temps, and what I have going on gfor the weekend. 
This is  a  great guide/tool !! will try cake yeast also and post results
thanks craig!
John
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: henkverhaar on September 20, 2013, 04:30:04 AM
This isn't a growth model. It's a rate model. Resources are not a constraint. There are ample resources by definition. It's not time dependent; it's temperature dependent.

Your model is a rate model because you use the temperature as your independent variable, but it's still governed by the same underlying process. I was merely trying to say that 'exponential' growth is a 'special case' of logistic growth, valid under conditions were there are no resource constraints yet. In the sense that the exponential part of your model does in fact represent something more than just being a convenient function that happens to fit the data...
;-)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on September 20, 2013, 10:14:16 AM
.11 IDY 60%  last Night  temps  low 60's 7 hours not dough was quite there
That was similar to my findings.  This is a tremendous idea Craig.  I will continue to generate some data.   Mark
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 20, 2013, 10:46:46 AM
Your model is a rate model because you use the temperature as your independent variable, but it's still governed by the same underlying process. I was merely trying to say that 'exponential' growth is a 'special case' of logistic growth, valid under conditions were there are no resource constraints yet. In the sense that the exponential part of your model does in fact represent something more than just being a convenient function that happens to fit the data...
;-)


Yes, exponential growth is an underlying assumption no doubt about that but not as you stated in your comments with respect to the specific functioning of the model. Perhaps some of the confusion is that I was not particularly clear in my original response to you that I was only talking about the specific part of the model Jim asked about not the model as a whole.

You mischaracterized how the model functions when you responded to my comment about a specific ex term writing It represents exponential growth and you mischaracterized it again here when you stated that this specific term as used represents more than a convenient function to fit the data. It does not.

The part of the model you commented on simply describes the effect of temperature on a relative growth rate. Its time independent, in fact, the dependant variable is dimensionless.  The function in question does not represent exponential growth (which always has time as an independent variable and a dependent variable with a dimension that represents a quantity of some sort such as number of cells or cell mass).

I think you are confusing the exponential function with exponential growth. The particular term in question is simply part of a larger function that describes how yeast growth rate varies with temperature, the result of which is used in the larger model which incorporates an exponential growth assumption.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on September 21, 2013, 07:25:59 AM
IDY 0.073%. 63% hydration 12 hours.  I think these are just beginning to be ready - baking 14 pies for marching band at noon.    Mark
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 21, 2013, 08:29:45 AM
Thanks Mark.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on September 21, 2013, 08:44:25 AM
Thanks Mark.
you are welcome Craig - thank you for your efforts.   Dough at 14 hrs :
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 21, 2013, 10:34:16 AM
you are welcome Craig - thank you for your efforts.   Dough at 14 hrs :

Would you say that dough was ready at 12-13 hours?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on September 21, 2013, 04:24:07 PM
Would you say that dough was ready at 12-13 hours?
yes Craig,  I would say that 12 to 13 hours was the beginning of when the dough was ready, but at 14 hours it was excellent, as the pic indicated.  And it still was in the "good window" for another hour or two.  I think there is a 3 or 4 hour window - none of my pics show dough as "ripe" as others have posted.  Cranked out 14 pies at marching band tailgate party - all pies were gone in seconds after being pulled from oven
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: deb415611 on September 22, 2013, 07:42:17 AM
loving this chart Craig  :)

chart 77 degrees. 6 hours .064 IDY

was 77 when dough made, 78 every other time I checked time (which is still 6 hours)

100% flour, 63% water, 1.75% salt, 1% sugar, 3% oil

pic 1 at 3 hours
pic 2 at 5 hours
pic 3 at 6 1/4 hours
pic 4 middle pizza was probably baked around 6:45


Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 22, 2013, 08:52:48 AM
Thanks Deb. These posts are a big help. A revised, fine tuned chart is coming soon.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: henkverhaar on September 24, 2013, 04:08:45 AM
I think you are confusing the exponential function with exponential growth. The particular term in question is simply part of a larger function that describes how yeast growth rate varies with temperature, the result of which is used in the larger model which incorporates an exponential growth assumption.

No, I'm not confusing exponential growth and the exponential function. But other than that, hmmm, I think that I'd have to admit that, hmmm, maybe you're right. Now how's that for noncommittal...

However, if so, can we than perhaps agree that your exponential dependence of rate on temperature (expressed as Tmax-T) is in fact a form of the Arrhenius equation? Arrhenius equation generally applies to simple chemical reactions, but is often used as a useful, if not necessarily exact, model to describe the dependence of microbial metabolism on temperature (such as the rate of microbial degradation of contaminants in soil dependent on soil temperature).

Cheers

Henk
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 24, 2013, 10:30:07 AM
However, if so, can we than perhaps agree that your exponential dependence of rate on temperature (expressed as Tmax-T) is in fact a form of the Arrhenius equation? Arrhenius equation generally applies to simple chemical reactions, but is often used as a useful, if not necessarily exact, model to describe the dependence of microbial metabolism on temperature (such as the rate of microbial degradation of contaminants in soil dependent on soil temperature).

I think you are trying to read too much into it. It's like Arrhenius in that it's a function that describes a non-linear relationship between temperature and rate at which something happens, but unlike Arrhenius which describes a relationship between meaningful quantities - the activation energy, average kinetic energy, frequency of collisions, and geometry of the molecule - Ganzle is simply a curve fit to observational data.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on October 05, 2013, 11:34:45 AM
.05% IDY  16 hours at 66.  Not quite there.  More pics to follow later in day.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 05, 2013, 02:03:28 PM
.05% IDY  16 hours at 66.  Not quite there.  More pics to follow later in day.

For some reason, both the original model and the revision I've been working on tend to come up short in the 66-68F range. The other points look pretty good in the new model I'm still tweaking
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on October 05, 2013, 02:37:29 PM
19 hours.  My SAF yeast is not expired but has been properly refrigerated for 6 months in sealed glass. 
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on October 05, 2013, 05:00:00 PM
21 hours. I am going to put in fridge for party at 6 Pm. Baking 12 pies. I would say window is 19 to 21 hours.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: communist on October 05, 2013, 08:42:08 PM
After baking pies, 21 hour dough a bit too long fermenting.  I think next time I will time dough for use at 19 hours.  This is only 2 or 3 hours beyond predicted, but that has been my findings in the past
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on October 29, 2013, 05:05:15 AM
A revised, fine tuned chart is coming soon.
Hi Craig
Any news regarding this "new" fine tuned chart ?
On the other hand, can you please give me your opinion about sort of calculation ? I prepared a CY dough at 0,1% and put the bulk into the fridge at 3C for 26 hours. These 26 hours represent about 1/8 of the total "calculated" fermentation time at 3C. Now I intend to ball the dough and let the balls rise at 16C. The total fermentation time at 16C is supposed to be about 36 hours. Is it relevant to withdraw 4 and 1/2 hours (which are 1/8 of 36 hours) and let the balls rise at 16C for "only" 31 and 1/2 hours ? I mean my calculation is 1/8 at 3C and 7/8 at 16C.
I hope I'm clear in my request... ???
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 29, 2013, 09:25:31 AM
You might want to take off the 4.5 hours. I just looked at what the new model predicts, and it is about 27-28 hours.

I haven't had a chance to work on the new model lately. Hopefully soon.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on October 29, 2013, 10:51:33 AM
You might want to take off the 4.5 hours. I just looked at what the new model predicts, and it is about 27-28 hours.
Craig,
Do you mean that after the 26 hours at 3C, there should be about 28 hours left at 16C ?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 29, 2013, 11:11:17 AM
Craig,
Do you mean that after the 26 hours at 3C, there should be about 28 hours left at 16C ?

Yes. That is what the new model says right now. I may tweak it some more, but in nay case, I'm pretty confident that the original model predicts times that are too long when the fermentation is cold.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on October 29, 2013, 11:25:40 AM
Thank you so much for your reply  ;D
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on October 30, 2013, 03:33:57 AM
That is what the new model says right now.
Craig,
Would you have anything that you can share ? Or is it "just" very complicated formulas that I wouldn't understand or master anyway !...
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 02, 2013, 07:24:37 PM
Here is the revised model. I think this will get you to a pretty good starting point with most formulations.

Please let me know your results.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on November 03, 2013, 03:10:57 AM
I will !
Thanks a lot  :D
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Needssalt on November 15, 2013, 11:31:15 AM
Around .021+% ADY at about 73 deg,.... baked dough sample rolls at 22hrs.  could have gone another 1 or 2.  Fits right in there.  It's so cool.  I have some multiple temp balls rising now, baking tomorrow and Sunday.  Will post.   Thanks for this.   
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 15, 2013, 11:40:53 AM
Around .021+% ADY at about 73 deg,.... baked dough sample rolls at 22hrs.  could have gone another 1 or 2.  Fits right in there.  It's so cool.  I have some multiple temp balls rising now, baking tomorrow and Sunday.  Will post.   Thanks for this.

Thanks for the data. That fits right with the model.

The goal is really to just give a good starting-point yeast estimate. I expect some formulations/workflows will require some tweaking of the model results, but in general this should get you pretty close - a lot closer than a SWAG.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Needssalt on November 16, 2013, 04:52:37 PM
Just another update.  The green on the chart is where I ended up. Right in there again.  I highlighted double boxes to account for some fluctuations and +/-. 

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on November 17, 2013, 05:32:27 PM
Hi Craig,
I made a 0,1% dough at 60F for 34 hours which happened to be absolutely perfect, in terms of fermentation of course.
Now I need your help.
I just made a 0,150% dough which will mature during 70 hours at 39F. In fact the whole process of fermentation will take place in the fridge. I'll put the balls at room temperature just one and a half hour before cooking.
But I can't remember when I'm supposed to make the balls. I'm sure it's been discussed in several posts, but I really can't remember.
Any help would be appreciated !
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 17, 2013, 05:35:51 PM
Hi Craig,
I made a 0,1% dough at 60F for 34 hours which happened to be absolutely perfect, in terms of fermentation of course.
Now I need your help.
I just made a 0,150% dough which will mature during 70 hours at 39F. In fact the whole process of fermentation will take place in the fridge. I'll put the balls at room temperature just one and a half hour before cooking.
But I can't remember when I'm supposed to make the balls. I'm sure it's been discussed in several posts, but I really can't remember.
Any help would be appreciated !

Using the fridge isn't my thing, but I would error on the side of doing it sooner rather than later. I'd want at least 24 hours in balls.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 17, 2013, 05:36:34 PM
Be sure to give the balls a couple hours at room temp before baking.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on November 17, 2013, 05:52:55 PM
Using the fridge isn't my thing, but I would error on the side of doing it sooner rather than later. I'd want at least 24 hours in balls.
The fact is that I'm supposed to serve these marvellous pizze on wednesday evening and I just had the opportunity to prepare the dough this evening (belgian time). This explains the fridge fermentation.
What would be your opinion about roughly 24 hours in bulk and 48 hours in balls or should it be more like 36 hours each ?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 17, 2013, 05:57:29 PM
The fact is that I'm supposed to serve these marvellous pizze on wednesday evening and I just had the opportunity to prepare the dough this evening (belgian time). This explains the fridge fermentation.
What would be your opinion about roughly 24 hours in bulk and 48 hours in balls or should it be more like 36 hours each ?

I honestly don't have an opinion one way or the other. If you want me to decide, go 36+36.

I'd take a look at them at least 12 hours before you need them. If they don't look like they will be ready, you might want to pull them and warm the up.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on November 17, 2013, 06:00:48 PM
Thanks. I'll try 36+36, and I'll keep you posted !
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on November 21, 2013, 05:21:44 AM
Finally, I decided to warm the balls up 6 hours before baking time. And it appeared to be a bit short !
On the other hand, I had balls in bowls and balls on trays. It seems that the balls in the bowls rise and bake better than the ones on trays, which naturally spread flat. Does this make sense to you ?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 21, 2013, 09:36:35 AM
Finally, I decided to warm the balls up 6 hours before baking time. And it appeared to be a bit short !
On the other hand, I had balls in bowls and balls on trays. It seems that the balls in the bowls rise and bake better than the ones on trays, which naturally spread flat. Does this make sense to you ?

The rise might look different (up vs out), but I'm surprised there was a difference in the overall amount of rise. Perhaps the trays conduct less heat into the balls? Just be sure to keep notes on what you did and what happened so you can make appropriate corrections. It won't take you long to zero in on what works for you.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: mitchjg on November 26, 2013, 03:36:42 PM
Hi Craig:

Are you planning on turning this into an excel model similar to the one you made for sourdough starter?  And/or, could you email me the table of numbers - I was thinking of building one as I did with the starter. 

OR

Is the table based on a model that you can supply with the constants, etc.?

Thanks!

Mitch
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on November 27, 2013, 03:37:19 AM
Using Garvey's Pizza Factory recipe linked here http://doughgenerator.allsimbaseball9.com/recipe.php?recipe_id=16 (http://doughgenerator.allsimbaseball9.com/recipe.php?recipe_id=16) I incorporated your model Craig. I've been kind of watching from the bleachers and finally have the time to give it an honest try. I'm going for about 16 hours at 68 degrees in my house and bulk at 800g total and will ball 1/2 way thru into 2 400g balls. The one change I've made to Garvey's recipe is 50/50 HG flour to GM 00 flour. I tried it once without your table, using only his measurements and it was superb!! Thought this would be a good one to try on your table. Will try to post some pics


jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on November 27, 2013, 11:17:56 AM
After 8 hours, then divided and re-balled. It was increased in size by about 1.5X

jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on November 27, 2013, 11:59:52 AM
re-balled for another 8 hours or so

jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on November 27, 2013, 04:40:13 PM
About 3-4 hours to go and they are almost doubled showing good activity
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: mkevenson on November 27, 2013, 06:35:33 PM
Jon, nice trophy wall! Man your dough grows big, my last controlled temp ferment 61-63F from the chart, was much less growth, but turned out great. Happy baking.

Mark
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on November 27, 2013, 07:47:01 PM
Jon, nice trophy wall! Man your dough grows big, my last controlled temp ferment 61-63F from the chart, was much less growth, but turned out great. Happy baking.
Mark

Like they say, 'shoulda seen the ones that got away'!! :-D Here's the 1st one I took across the street for the granddaughters, plain cheese and sauce. The grown up one will be next with homemade Italian sausage from rib trimmings, pepperoni, onions, mushrooms and green olives

jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 27, 2013, 09:50:53 PM
Freggin' great looking pizza there!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on November 27, 2013, 09:52:48 PM
Soooo, topped as described above and also a bit of feta in there too, always goes great when olives are in the game. The other cheeses are my usual 50/50 mozz and prov. Here's the formulation with the 'Craig Table' yeast adjustment. This worked VERY well and look forward to using it more with other dough types and bread too. BIG THANK YOU to Craig for doing this and all the ground work for making this so easy for all of us!!!!! I used 2,  400 gram dough balls and hand stretched as much as I could and TEASED it with a rolling pin the rest of the way to get it to 16". There was a lot of bubbles still in the dough before being topped. Light, crispy and still sturdy enough to hold the toppings. Bulked for about 8 hours and re-balled into 2 balls for the other 8, think I mentioned that earlier too. One more thing of importance, this was the 2nd time I used 50/50 GM 00 and Kyrol HG but the first time using the Craig Table, probably the best Chicago Thin crust to date!!!

jon

Flour___ 498g
water __ 249g
yeast___.25g (dough generator for original recipe would have been 2.492g, 10X more)
salt____ 4.98g
sugar___4.98g
oil_____39.9g
total___800g
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on November 27, 2013, 09:55:36 PM
Freggin' great looking pizza there!

You get some of the kudos there pal, your table works pretty damned good so far and the 1st time I've used it too!!

jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: wahoo88 on November 27, 2013, 10:02:01 PM
Craig, thanks for putting this chart and model together.  I will only post relevant stuff here, the pizzas made with this dough can be found here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,27075.msg289850.html#new (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,27075.msg289850.html#new)

I used values of 62F and 23 hours to come up with 0.06% ADY.  Using a bowl of water and a thermometer, I determined that the actual fermentation temperature was ~60.5F.

The first picture is at 16 hours, and the second is at 23 hours.  I would have liked the dough to ferment a bit more, but the flavor and even the crumb was great for NY style.  You can make of the bubble structure what you want, but I would say that if the actual fermentation temperature was 62F, the dough would have been perfect.  Sorry for the bad pictures, I was using a heavy Pyrex dish, and it was tough to hold up and take the photos at the same time and in good light.

Dan
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on December 29, 2013, 03:43:40 PM
Craig this Baker's yeast quantity prediction model rocks. This is the 3rd time I've used it and it's been pretty much right on the mark This is hour 15 of 18 and the dough has about doubled. So it will be 18 hours, avg temp of 70 and used .032%. REALLY like this a lot!!

jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on December 29, 2013, 06:35:14 PM
at 17.5 hours and just over twice it's original size. I forgot to mention that these are 2, 400 gram balls that were bulked for 9 hours and gently split, re-balled and let go until just a couple minutes ago

jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: widespreadpizza on January 11, 2014, 11:50:19 AM
Craig,  I have used this with great success a couple times now. I think its ready for prime time and should be sticky-ed and posted near the dough tools.  It would be so awesome if two more boxes were added to the calculators,  one being total fermentation time,  and the other being ambient temp.  Or this could be a really easy project for someone to just do this part as a yeast calculator.  I am sure someone out there could make quick work of it,  and also do the same with you sd chart?  Thanks for this -marc
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: deb415611 on January 11, 2014, 12:21:22 PM
Craig,  I have used this with great success a couple times now. I think its ready for prime time and should be sticky-ed and posted near the dough tools.  It would be so awesome if two more boxes were added to the calculators,  one being total fermentation time,  and the other being ambient temp.  Or this could be a really easy project for someone to just do this part as a yeast calculator.  I am sure someone out there could make quick work of it,  and also do the same with you sd chart?  Thanks for this -marc

 ^^^   I agree.  Both have been an incredible help in my pizza making.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on January 11, 2014, 12:58:54 PM
^^^   I agree.  Both have been an incredible help in my pizza making.

 ^^^ also, I've used it 4-5 times now, works great. That's 3 votes for a sticky (insert sound of gavel hitting sounding block 'here')!!

jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: November on January 11, 2014, 01:30:40 PM
Craig, yeast activity is impacted by variables other than yeast%, temperature and time. These other variables include:

hydration
salt
oil/fat
sugar
yeast age
dough ball size
gluten development
altitude
water chemistry (level of chlorination especially)
container material and thickness (conductivity if ambient and dough temps vary, along with heat dissipation from fermentation)
flour chemistry (enzyme activity/damaged starch etc.)

Some of these variables might have lesser impact than others, but, collectively, they put the usefulness of member feedback in question.  If, say, you wanted to base the model on IDY NP, then the use of the same flour, typically tight hydration and salt levels, along with very similar dough ball sizes might help you fine tune the model for NP bakers, but asking everyone to give you yeast%, temp and time numbers isn't going to give you useful data, imo. I could easily make two doughs with identical yeast %, ferment them at the same temp, but, by modifying the other variables, double or half the time when they're 2x-3x volume (aka 'ready').

Craig and Scott,

I apologize for not having the time to read this entire thread, so I don't know how this disagreement progressed.  Craig is absolutely correct about all the variables, and the potential lack of usefulness member feedback promises.  I have made doughs that double in volume within two hours, and others that double in four or more, all using the same amount of yeast and at the same temperature.  There's a reason why doughs, such as those used for breakfast pastries, which generally include eggs and much more butter than a typical pizza dough, require more yeast to leaven properly (or at least timely).  In fact, there are more ingredients you could add to your dough that would cripple or kill off your yeast completely than hours in the day.  A chart can't make zero times zero equal something other than zero.  You still have to have a working reference point.  In science it's also called a control.  The only factor you want to change is temperature in order to solve for yeast quantity.  Changing more than a single factor at once yields inconclusive results.

- November
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: waynesize on January 16, 2014, 11:02:50 PM
Going to try using this tomorrow. My plan is 68f room temp ferment for 22 hours.  Given the .032% IDY from the chart, I will need .22g yeast. That is way less than I am used to using. Not surprised. Should be interesting. This will be my first room temp ferment. I have been making cold fermented doughs for five years.

Flour (100%) : 687.14g/24.24 oz
Water (63%) : 432.9g/15.27 oz
IDY (0.032%): 0.22g/0.01 oz
Salt (2%)  : 13.74g/0.48 oz
Total (165.032%) : 1134g/40 oz
Single Ball :  567g/20 oz

I wish I had a scale that measured in smaller units!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on January 17, 2014, 03:41:13 AM
Going to try using this tomorrow. My plan is 68f room temp ferment for 22 hours.  Given the .032% IDY from the chart, I will need .22g yeast. That is way less than I am used to using. Not surprised. Should be interesting. This will be my first room temp ferment. I have been making cold fermented doughs for five years.

Flour (100%) : 687.14g/24.24 oz
Water (63%) : 432.9g/15.27 oz
IDY (0.032%): 0.22g/0.01 oz
Salt (2%)  : 13.74g/0.48 oz
Total (165.032%) : 1134g/40 oz
Single Ball :  567g/20 oz

I wish I had a scale that measured in smaller units!

I'm sure you already started this, but if you didn't do this with your yeast, I always dissolve, hydrate the yeast before mixing when using these small amounts to get all the bang for my buck. Also, this tip from Craig for weighing small amounts of yeast on scales that don't measure that low........

  "You read the chart right, 72h at 68F = 0.013% ADY.
  I also agree that 0.06825g ADY for 525g flour is correct to hit 0.013%. 7 tenths of a gram (0.7) would be 10X more than called for not 7X.
    Yes a little less than a 10th of a gram -  7 hundredths of a gram for your formula. One way to do this is dissolve 1.0g yeast in 99.0g water and use 7ml or 7g of the resulting solution. I'd probably use 8ml or 8g just to give a little room for error. I'd rather err or the high side with quantities this small"..........

Good advice

jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: waynesize on January 17, 2014, 06:50:13 AM
Thanks. I will be making the dough this evening (Friday) around 8:00pm, shooting for ready at 6:00pm Saturday. Thanks for the yeast advice. I had read it in the previous post, and will use the wet measuring method. I have no way to measure such a small amount dry. I will attempt to document as I go along, so I can post results.

Wayne
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Tampa on January 17, 2014, 09:18:29 AM
Wow Craig, amazing contribution here.  I'm a little late to this thread but what a great concept (model), well executed. 

Thx also to Peter for his reference post in "next level" and commenting that many forum members don't understand the yeast/temperature relationship.  I know a guy like that and think that he is beginning to wake up. :chef:

Dave
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: waynesize on January 17, 2014, 01:49:07 PM
Me too, Dave! I was in a rut, making the same old pizza. Everyone else seems to love it, but I have not been satisfied. Thanks to Peter making the post that sent me to this thread, I may get over the hump and on to the next level.  :)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: waynesize on January 18, 2014, 08:33:53 AM
After 12 and 1/2 hours, my 22 hour room temp dough is showing no signs of activity. I think I messed up making my yeast solution. Maybe I should start over. :(
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on January 18, 2014, 10:31:34 AM
NO, keep on going. There's been more than once when I thought there was NO hope, NO activity,  and some of them were real standouts!! Follow it through. Make an extra, "just in case dough", or 2 with the time left, but start with your originals and give them a chance, you may be surprised!!!

jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: waynesize on January 18, 2014, 11:01:34 AM
I have my usual cold ferment doughs waiting in the fridge, just in case (got to be able to feed the kids). Made another batch of dough this morning. This will be an 8 or 9 hour dough. The short time involved got me to a measurable yeast amount, without having to mix with water.  And I thought I would not be using science 30 years after High School  ;D.  Thanks for the encouragement.

Wayne
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on January 19, 2014, 10:43:52 AM
I have my usual cold ferment doughs waiting in the fridge, just in case (got to be able to feed the kids). Made another batch of dough this morning. This will be an 8 or 9 hour dough. The short time involved got me to a measurable yeast amount, without having to mix with water.  And I thought I would not be using science 30 years after High School  ;D.  Thanks for the encouragement.

Wayne

How did your pies turn out??

jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: waynesize on January 19, 2014, 04:03:58 PM
Jon, I made one 16" pie with the dough I made Saturday. It was not my best pie, but still much better than most that I can buy around here. It handled and cooked well. The taste was pretty good too. Not bad for the first time using a room temp dough. The dough I made Friday night never really took off. I need to do some more reading, and attempt it a gain. I think I did not get the yeast dissolved very well, resulting in very little available yeast.  Here is a pic of the pie I made with the 8 hour dough. Nice to know I can get this good of a result on such a short notice.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: waynesize on January 19, 2014, 04:07:25 PM
Oh, and I think the yeast prediction chart was correct in the amount I needed. ( my room temp got warmer than I expected).

Wayne
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jsaras on January 30, 2014, 04:00:53 PM
I made a 4-hour nearly-pseudo-politan dough today.  Room temp 70 degrees.

GM All Purpose Flour - 100%
Water - 60%
IDY - 0.224%
Salt - 2.5%
Oil - 2.0 %

Baked at around 700 degrees in my Blackstone for 2:30.  I haven't made a pizza with AP flour since my very first attempt at making a pizza several years ago (which failed miserably).  Now, armed with this information, I feel like I can take on the world!

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on January 30, 2014, 10:46:08 PM
That turned out quite nicely for a 4 hour dough!!!

jon
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jsaras on January 31, 2014, 10:48:28 AM
Thanks for the compliment.  I'm as surprised as anyone by the results.  Now if I could just get my Ishcia starter to be consistent active I'd really be on to something  :P
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: wahoo88 on March 15, 2014, 10:06:59 PM
0.05% ADY and 60 hour ferment at 60 degrees F worked perfectly for me tonight.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on April 17, 2014, 12:01:32 PM
After reading through the thread it doesn't appear that many have used the chart for cold fermentation. In looking over my notes and checking out the original chart and comparing it to the latest their is quite a change in the amount of ADY used at my usual 39 degrees/96 hour cold ferment. The original chart has it at 0.084 and the updated has it at 0.042. I went with the 0.042 last night for pizza on Sunday. I'll report back on the results.

jb
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on April 18, 2014, 12:17:14 AM
Thanks JB. I've looked at literally 100+ cold fermentation data points, and to say that they are all over the map would be an understatement. The one (and only) benefit of cold fermentation is the flexibility it allows with respect to timing. This model is only designed to provide a starting point. Maybe you can get away with less than indicated in the sub-40F zone, however you can certainly push things a lot longer.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on April 24, 2014, 07:27:51 PM
The pizza turned out great. My only complaint is a lack of rise in the dough. And I'm not sure it's even a valid complaint as it tasted great and was pretty easy to work with. After mixing and kneading I balled 5 300 gram balls and put them in the fridge. By day 3 there was a tiny bit of activity evident from the formation of bubbles visible on the bottom of the plastic containers. To the touch the dough felt heavy. I let it go another day and 6 hours before cooking, took them out to sit at room temp. Normally I would have done 4 hours, but with so little activity it made me nervous, I had guests arriving and wanted them to be ready. When it was time to make pizza they had risen a bit more, maybe double from when I put them in the fridge 4 days ago. When I took them out of the plastic bowls the dough was still kind of heavy feeling, but they opened easily and I had little trouble making 12 to 14 inch pies.. But the feel of the dough was not as light and silky as I have seen it in the past.

Next time? I think I could take them out 10 hours before cooking or increase the yeast by half again. In this batch I had used 928 grams of flour and 1.5 grams of ADY yeast. I think I'll try 2.25 grams next time.

jb
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: CDNpielover on April 27, 2014, 10:22:03 AM
I assume this is a regression model - do you mind sharing the model (i..e. the equation), number of observations, and r2? For me, those would be necessary to judge if these results should or shouldnot be used.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on April 27, 2014, 04:27:06 PM
I assume this is a regression model - do you mind sharing the model (i..e. the equation), number of observations, and r2? For me, those would be necessary to judge if these results should or shouldnot be used.

Do tell what is the minimum r^2 that would be required for you to deem the model worthy.  Are you sure you dont want to see F and t-stats as well?

BTW, if you will take the time to read just five posts into the thread, you will get an idea how it works.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jsaras on April 27, 2014, 04:44:04 PM
I nominate Craig for the Nobel Pizza Prize!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pythonic on May 01, 2014, 11:36:24 AM
Craig,

Great chart.  Is the starting temp for dough accounted for?  Maybe I missed it somewhere?

Nate
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pythonic on May 02, 2014, 02:10:06 AM
0.04% IDY at 65F for 13 hours.  Chart says 23 hours.  This dough looks ready right?  Smells a little like alcohol.  Dough was 75F when balled.  This is why it's done early right?

Nate
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Bert on May 02, 2014, 10:09:17 AM
I have not contributed to this post but I refer to the chart whenever I prepare dough. Awesome tool..
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: mitchjg on May 02, 2014, 11:45:37 AM
0.4% IDY at 65F for 13 hours.  Chart says 23 hours.  This dough looks ready right?  Smells a little like alcohol.  Dough was 75F when balled.  This is why it's done early right?

Nate

0.04%, not 0.4%  Unless you have a typo, you used around 10X the amount of yeast required.

- Mitch
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pythonic on May 02, 2014, 12:43:10 PM
0.04%, not 0.4%  Unless you have a typo, you used around 10X the amount of yeast required.

- Mitch

Yes I meant .04%.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on May 02, 2014, 10:28:56 PM
Craig,

Great chart.  Is the starting temp for dough accounted for?  Maybe I missed it somewhere?

Nate

No, there are several variables this doesn't take into account. It's simply meant to help you find a starting point to work from. Generally, it will get you pretty close then tweak from there.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on May 12, 2014, 06:55:36 PM
Ran another batch of 5 pizzas this weekend. 52 hour cold ferment, chart said .084. Went with .099. Worked out to be almost a gram in a 928 grams of flour. Very little action in the cold. Took them out early in the day as I wasn't sure how they would react. One lid popped off after 3 hours. We made pizza when they'd been at room temp for ten hours. They had doubled in size and were just starting to get large bubbles of fermentation. I hadn't planned on it being ten hours, but parties can be unpredictable. Dough was fantastic. Easy to work, cooked up with a nice rim and very tasty. Best yet. Unlike the last batch that was underactive, these were just right. I would rather have used them between 4 and 6 hours at room temp, but it didn't seem to hurt them at all. For my preferences the chart is a bit light on ADY at the lower temps, but as you've said this is a starting point.

Thanks,
jb   
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: shuboyje on May 25, 2014, 09:27:01 AM
I've been using this to make my dough for my coal oven lately, and I am more then impressed.  I have been doing 48 hours room temperature ferments, and measure the yeast with my jewelers scale.  The dough has been perfect every time, complete with those little black dots the italians covet so much, which I have never achieved before this chat. 

Once again my hats off to Craig!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on May 26, 2014, 08:32:25 AM
Once again my hats off to Craig!

Thanks Jeff. Glad to hear it's working for you.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: quixoteQ on May 28, 2014, 10:38:26 AM
Craig,

Thanks, as always, for all your help.

Ran another batch of 5 pizzas this weekend. 52 hour cold ferment, chart said .084. Went with .099. Worked out to be almost a gram in a 928 grams of flour. Very little action in the cold. Took them out early in the day as I wasn't sure how they would react. One lid popped off after 3 hours. We made pizza when they'd been at room temp for ten hours. They had doubled in size and were just starting to get large bubbles of fermentation. I hadn't planned on it being ten hours, but parties can be unpredictable. Dough was fantastic. Easy to work, cooked up with a nice rim and very tasty. Best yet. Unlike the last batch that was underactive, these were just right. I would rather have used them between 4 and 6 hours at room temp, but it didn't seem to hurt them at all. For my preferences the chart is a bit light on ADY at the lower temps, but as you've said this is a starting point.

Thanks,
jb

JB,

I'm curious about the actual ferment time.  If I understand your post correctly, you went with 52hrs cold ferment (at about 40*F), and then an additional ten hours at room temperature for a total of 62 hours?

Also--and I apologize if you've posted your workflow here before--what temperature was the water when mixing the dough and dough temperature before putting it in the fridge?  Much thanks!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on May 28, 2014, 05:06:26 PM
QuixoteQ,

You are correct about the total ferment time. I have not posted my work flow and I don't know the precise temp of the water nor the dough when it goes into the fridge. I can only give you a guestimate on both. Water temp is 90-100 to start. I do it by feel on my hand from the tap. I use a Kitchen Aid mixer with a dough hook. After weighing I add the water, yeast, sugar and oil to the mixing bowl. I let that sit for about 10 minutes. I weigh the flour in a separate bowl which is a mix of Bread flour (usually KA but this last time it was Redmill) and semolina, 75/25%, add the salt and stir a bit by hand. I turn the mixer on two and add the flour. I let that mix for a few minutes until it's all incorporated and then let it autolyse for 15 minutes. I then mix on two for about 4 -5 minutes or until the dough starts to look satiny. I do a bit of hand kneading, portion, ball and put each one into a lightly greased Tupperware and into the fridge. I would be surprised if the temp of the dough going into the fridge was much more than room temp.

Hope this is what you were looking for.

jb
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: quixoteQ on May 28, 2014, 05:21:45 PM
QuixoteQ,

You are correct about the total ferment time. I have not posted my work flow and I don't know the precise temp of the water nor the dough when it goes into the fridge. I can only give you a guestimate on both. Water temp is 90-100 to start. I do it by feel on my hand from the tap. I use a Kitchen Aid mixer with a dough hook. After weighing I add the water, yeast, sugar and oil to the mixing bowl. I let that sit for about 10 minutes. I weigh the flour in a separate bowl which is a mix of Bread flour (usually KA but this last time it was Redmill) and semolina, 75/25%, add the salt and stir a bit by hand. I turn the mixer on two and add the flour. I let that mix for a few minutes until it's all incorporated and then let it autolyse for 15 minutes. I then mix on two for about 4 -5 minutes or until the dough starts to look satiny. I do a bit of hand kneading, portion, ball and put each one into a lightly greased Tupperware and into the fridge. I would be surprised if the temp of the dough going into the fridge was much more than room temp.

Hope this is what you were looking for.

jb

Thanks for your response.  I've been making Scott's KABF 48hr cold ferment 2x a week this last month, which includes a 2-3 hr room temp rest between the cold ferment and bake.  Craig's predictive numbers for 39-40*F seemed somewhat low relative to what I've experienced with Scott's formula.  However, by the end of a 48hr cold ferment with that formula the dough is certainly ready . . . Not blown out but quite active.

I was considering an attempt to use Craig's awesome work to extend the cold ferment an additional day; I'm curious about how that would affect the flavor/texture.  I'd love to see more people respond with their findings  :chef:
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: weemis on June 02, 2014, 08:53:31 AM
Haven't been around in a while. Just caught a glimpse of this post. Craig, you are blowing my mind. If this was around a few years ago, it would have saved me so much trial and error time! I, too, cast my vote for Nobel TXCraig!

Thank you for this awesome information. This is indeed a game changer.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Tampa on June 02, 2014, 12:50:57 PM
  ^^^
Dave
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 02, 2014, 12:58:37 PM
You guys are too kind.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: quixoteQ on June 03, 2014, 10:05:58 PM
All right, this post probably won't mean anything to anyone, since I used more IDY than any of the figures in this model, but I would really like to see more photos of people's dough and how they match up with the predictions.

From mix to bake, this batch sat for 75 hrs: bulk, 24 hrs, CF at 39-40F; balled, 47 hrs, CF at 39-40F; 4 hrs, room temp. at 70F.

KABF
Room temp. water 61%
IDY .2%
Total weight: 1543.16 grams
Ball: 385.79 g

Pics: fridge temp., two dough balls after 71 hrs CF, and 4 hrs later before opening.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on June 05, 2014, 01:28:55 PM
Your dough looks very similar to mine at each of those stages. Very little activity in the fridge. Nicely risen after 4 hours at room temp.

jb
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: quixoteQ on June 05, 2014, 10:07:46 PM
Your dough looks very similar to mine at each of those stages. Very little activity in the fridge. Nicely risen after 4 hours at room temp.

jb

What's interesting to me is that when I used the final two dough balls today (five days), I took photos again: once when I took them out of the fridge, and again four hours later right before the bake.  There was certainly more activity in the dough, but much less than I expected given the two extra CF days.

The pies were great. The flavor was tasty but the texture was nearly perfect.  The bite had a great crisp to it but the crust itself was extremely light.  Opening the dough was a pleasure, too.

First pic is just after removing the dough from the fridge, the other four hours later after resting at room temperature.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 06, 2014, 09:10:08 AM
What's interesting to me is that when I used the final two dough balls today (five days), I took photos again: once when I took them out of the fridge, and again four hours later right before the bake.  There was certainly more activity in the dough, but much less than I expected given the two extra CF days.

Experience is key to great pizza. There are probably many recipes that make OK pizza without much effort - but if you want great pizza, you will have to tweak and experiment. There are way too many important variables that differ meaningfully from personal situation to personal situation.

It's entirely possible that the table in this thread predicts too few fermentation hours at cold temps. The refrigerated fermentation data I had to work with is wildly inconsistent. I'll take a look at it again in the coming weeks.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: quixoteQ on June 06, 2014, 10:43:43 AM
Experience is key to great pizza. There are probably many recipes that make OK pizza without much effort - but if you want great pizza, you will have to tweak and experiment. There are way too many important variables that differ meaningfully from personal situation to personal situation.

It's entirely possible that the table in this thread predicts too few fermentation hours at cold temps. The refrigerated fermentation data I had to work with is wildly inconsistent. I'll take a look at it again in the coming weeks.

No doubts about that . . . my experience level would be generously titled "rookie" and the few tweaks I have made to my recipes and work flow have very little in the way of variable control.  Heh.  Room temperature is a case example.  I just wanted to post what my dough looked like in the hope of encouraging others to do the same.  I was reading through a few of Jackie Tran's threads, and I saw some pics of what his dough looks like right before opening the balls.  Pretty beautiful.  In the particular thread, he was working with shorter ferment times, but it made me want to see how important those ferment times were.

Hopefully more people will post here.  Thanks again for all your work, Craig.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: ChristianVerschaeren on June 16, 2014, 12:04:29 AM
Divella 100%
Water 63%
Salt 3%
Cake yeast 0,05% (That's what I went for anyway, might be a bit off)

24 h bulk
25 h balled

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Johnny the Gent on June 23, 2014, 06:09:24 PM
Dough prepared at 4:00 pm with a RTB (ready to bake) time of 9:00 pm. A couple more hours to go.  I used just a smidgen more CY than suggested because what I have has been in the fridge for about a week, and I was afraid the yeasties may have lost some potency  ;D

Looks good so far. Thanks Craig for the awesome model!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Johnny the Gent on June 23, 2014, 08:24:23 PM
Pies came out great! Photos look like they were snapped with a Coke bottle, not sure what's up with my cell phone these days  :-D
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 23, 2014, 09:41:04 PM
Beautiful - love the pepperoni and onion combo.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: cupcake on July 01, 2014, 05:00:56 PM
This thread is very informative. I just acquired a proper food scale and I now realize that I'm grossly over-fermenting my dough.

Attached is my ball after 46 hours in the fridge with around 1.2% IDY.

My only concern now is that in order to do my 2-pie doughs with the percentages on this table, I have to measure down to fractions of a gram. Which is tricky.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: orangeman1 on July 01, 2014, 06:30:14 PM
I ended up getting a milligram scale and then converted as closely as possible to fractions of a teaspoon which is much easier to use than always weighing on such a sensitive scale.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on July 01, 2014, 06:40:36 PM
Say you want 0.1g of yeast and you scale only measures to 1g resolution, dissolve 1g yeast in 99g water and use 10g of the mixture to get 0.1g ~+/- 0.04g

You can increase the accuracy to ~+/-0.004g by using a scale that measures to 0.1g resolution or by dissolving 10g yeast in 990g water and use 10g of the mixture.

Be sure to subtract water in the mixture from formula water.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: cupcake on July 01, 2014, 07:48:51 PM
Sigh. So many years in university and I still couldn't figure that one out.

Thanks!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on July 01, 2014, 08:03:11 PM
Sigh. So many years in university and I still couldn't figure that one out.

Thanks!

Iron sharpens iron.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: waltertore on August 01, 2014, 10:06:56 AM
I tried Craigs formula yesterday and wasn't sure to post this on the wall of shame or here :-D.  I brought home all the same stuff we use at our bakery/pizzeria- grande whole milk mozz, 7/11 tomatoes, parm reg, fresh basil, and a 20" peel so I could make an 18" pizza.  I made 2 -20oz dough balls and the plan was for a 24 ferment at 70 degrees.  Once I weighed the flour out I used a small scale from work for the yeast, salt, evvo.  Well my scale went south over the summer break.  It would not register a gram until I piled enough on and it read .50grams.  So I had no idea how much yeast,salt,evvo to put in.  The dough called for .17 grams IDY.  I work with dough for pizza and bread everyday so I guesstimated a pinch worth and the same for the salt and evvo.  I finished kneading/balling the dough around 4pm last night.  When I woke up at 7am this morning the dough was already past peak rise, more than doubled in size, and bubbling like crazy.  By the time I set up the home oven with the stone it an hour more passed and the dough had lost all its strength.  I was barely able to shape the dough to get it off the pan it was rising in via very gently scraping it together with lots of bench flour.  From there just moving it to the peel was a major effort.  I very gently hand strectched/shaped it on the peel.  The oven did amazingly good.  I ran it at 525 on the convection setting and the pies came out very nice all things considered.  I ordered a new scale and will definetly try this formula again with a 24 hour rise here at home and in the bakery.  Our house is 700 sq ft.  Judy and I lived most of our life in places this size and on buses when I toured with my music so we are use to a kitchen the size of a public  bathroom stall.  But having such a wonderful space/equipment at work really has spoiled me and I lost my temper working with a 20" peel with a long handle that banged into everything on the counter space which is about as big as 2 pizzas.  It sure is easy to go up and sure is hard to go down in luxury!  The taste of this pizza was passable.  Better than an rt emergency dough but not near as flavorful as a multi day cold ferement in the fridge.  Like I said I didn't know whether to post this here or on the wall of shame :)  Walter
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JD on August 01, 2014, 12:54:55 PM
I think a lot of people would be pretty happy with that pizza Walter, all things considered.

I too will be attempting a 24hr room fermented dough, hopefully this weekend. I'm going about it a little differently since accuracy of this tiny amount of yeast is crucial to fermentation.

I figured out the yeast required based on Craig's chart and the dough calculator, and using the yeast + water trick. I'll be using ADY, a room temperature of 75 and 21hrs fermentation. I also calculated the potential error since my scale only measures to the 0.1g. Worst case scenario, I'll be off by a couple hours off peak if I use my numbers. Looking forward to the results.

Craig: Did you develop a bakers yeast calculator similar to your sourdough calculator?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 01, 2014, 01:19:21 PM
Craig: Did you develop a bakers yeast calculator similar to your sourdough calculator?

Are you talking about this? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0

Mitch created that if I remember right. I sent him the math behind my table and he converted it into the spreadsheet. To my knowledge nothing similar has been done with the baker's yeast model. The math behind the baker's yeast is a bit different and would make converting it to a similar spreadsheet considerably more difficult. It's not something I see as worth the time or effort.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JD on August 01, 2014, 01:32:31 PM
Are you talking about this? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0

Mitch created that if I remember right. I sent him the math behind my table and he converted it into the spreadsheet. To my knowledge nothing similar has been done with the baker's yeast model. The math behind the baker's yeast is a bit different and would make converting it to a similar spreadsheet considerably more difficult. It's not something I see as worth the time or effort.

No need to create a calculator, I just wanted to make sure it wasn't buried in this thread somewhere already. At my room temp (75), my only options are 28, 19 & 14hrs with nothing in between. I could see myself using this in place of a 24hr cold ferment, but I can probably figure out the in-between numbers by means of extrapolation.

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: mitchjg on August 01, 2014, 01:44:18 PM
Are you talking about this? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuvMQbzk5INUdGZScWx6U2lYSEtZVkJuVGJiR19NaXc#gid=0

Mitch created that if I remember right. I sent him the math behind my table and he converted it into the spreadsheet. To my knowledge nothing similar has been done with the baker's yeast model. The math behind the baker's yeast is a bit different and would make converting it to a similar spreadsheet considerably more difficult. It's not something I see as worth the time or effort.

Hi:

If I remember correctly, I created it using the math in your model and then you tweaked and cleaned it up a bit.  But, it has been a while.

I did create a similar one for your yeast model.  I use it whenever I use yeast in a dough.  It has been a while since I created it but, if I remember  correctly, it does not "exactly" follow the model but it was the same for all intent and purpose.  I also set it up to interpolate between values in your table.

I will dig it out and send it to you, probably today.  I would like you to review it, etc. before putting it out there. 

- Mitch

PS Craig: just sent you an email with a copy of a spreadsheet.  Will follow up with more for you to check out.  - M
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: waltertore on August 01, 2014, 03:57:47 PM
I think a lot of people would be pretty happy with that pizza Walter, all things considered.


JD:  Thanks.  For eyeballing it all it was ok but did no justice to the concept.  It did show how forgiving dough really is and how one can get away with near murder :)  I look forward to trying it again when my new scale arrives. Good luck with your experiment!  Walter
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JD on August 03, 2014, 09:49:21 AM
So my plan was for a 21hr room ferment, 9pm Friday - 6pm Saturday. I'd say the dough was ready to use after 17hrs. I ended up putting the dough in the fridge at the 17hr mark so I didn't have a completely overblown dough at 6. The picture is the 21hr mark after it was in the fridge for 3 hrs, and although round it is the bottom of the dough.

The pizza had a good flavor, different from a cold fermented dough all together. It's not really comparing apples to apples in my opinion. Interesting experiment and will try it again with adjusted yeast so I don't need to use the fridge at all. Please excuse the wally world cheese, I was out of the good stuff.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 03, 2014, 10:03:36 AM
So my plan was for a 21hr room ferment, 9pm Friday - 6pm Saturday. I'd say the dough was ready to use after 17hrs. I ended up putting the dough in the fridge at the 17hr mark so I didn't have a completely overblown dough at 6. The picture is the 21hr mark after it was in the fridge for 3 hrs, and although round it is the bottom of the dough.

The pizza had a good flavor, different from a cold fermented dough all together. It's not really comparing apples to apples in my opinion. Interesting experiment and will try it again with adjusted yeast so I don't need to use the fridge at all. Please excuse the wally world cheese, I was out of the good stuff.

Keep in mind that there are a lot of things that vary from one person's unique situation to another's. The purpose of the tables is to help you find a good starting point. It may work for you perfectly, but often the need for a bit of tweaking is to be expected.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JD on August 03, 2014, 12:06:05 PM
Keep in mind that there are a lot of things that vary from one person's unique situation to another's. The purpose of the tables is to help you find a good starting point. It may work for you perfectly, but often the need for a bit of tweaking is to be expected.

Understood. I'm sure I can get very close next time. Even so,  with such a small amount of yeast and higher temperature the margin for error is huge. I'm happy with my results.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: JD on August 06, 2014, 08:45:59 PM
I did another test but this time 28hrs at 75 degrees. The picture is the doughball after 21 hours. Still a little too ripe for my preference, but not overblown.

The flavor was much better than the first one I did for some reason. Comparable to a two or three day cold ferment IMO.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 06, 2014, 09:15:44 PM
Slice looks good.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Chicago Bob on August 06, 2014, 10:07:21 PM
JD is putting out some great looking pizza!  :chef:
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: lanceberry on August 13, 2014, 06:32:40 PM
I am reading through this and find it very interesting, but wonder if anyone has the same thought that I just came up with for my house? Living in Houston we always use the AC. At our house it is set with auto thermostat for 72F when we are home at night, 71F when we go to bed and then to 74F when we are not home. If I average the hours and the temp I would get 72.125F. My first thought is to just use 72F as my base and go from there....but if the warmer part of the day has a greater effect on the dough is this directly compensated for by the cooler part of the night? I guess what I am getting at is would you use 72F or maybe bump up to 73F for some margin and then see what that looks like?

Interesting and something for me to think/play with in addition/aside from what I am already trying to prefect. (48hr in fridge)

So many choices and so many combinations  ??? ??? ???
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 13, 2014, 06:38:36 PM
You can do multi-temp calcs with it. See this post for instructions. The same will work on the table in this thread. http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.msg230690#msg230690 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.msg230690#msg230690)

The bottom line is that these tables are to help you find a starting point. There are too many variables for them to be absolutely precise in every instance.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: lanceberry on August 13, 2014, 10:12:59 PM
You can do multi-temp calcs with it. See this post for instructions. The same will work on the table in this thread. http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.msg230690#msg230690 (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.msg230690#msg230690)

The bottom line is that these tables are to help you find a starting point. There are too many variables for them to be absolutely precise in every instance.

Very interesting, thanks!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: lanceberry on August 15, 2014, 08:03:25 AM
I gave this a try to have some fun and see how it would turn out. I am very new to home pizza making and not sure how to interpret completely, but I think I need to use less yeast. I went with around 20 hrs at 72F. The pizza handled well, but the taste was somewhat lacking and the crust was tough and chewy. (could be the 13.6% flour used) I will try again and dial back the yeast some and use a bit lower protein flour mix.

Flour (100%):  ConAgra Supreme 13.6%
Water (63%):
IDY (.024%):
Salt (1.75%):
Sugar (1%):
Total: 750g
Single Ball: 250g

- Hand mixed and kneaded till smooth, let it rest for 5 min's twice and then back to hand kneading.
- Bulk room ferment for 11hr
- Scale and ball into 3 plastic containers
- First one into oven 20hr 
- Opened, dressed and backed in 1hr preheated oven with baking steel on 2nd from top rack. 1min bake / 1min broil / 3min bake
- Taste
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Kostakis1985 on September 23, 2014, 05:42:40 AM
I've read through the thread, but had a question.

Would this model work in a commercial setting? Even with the Mass Effect?

If I wanted to try the chart am I still trying to achieve a finished dough temp of 80 degrees?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 23, 2014, 09:15:29 AM
I've read through the thread, but had a question.

Would this model work in a commercial setting? Even with the Mass Effect?

If I wanted to try the chart am I still trying to achieve a finished dough temp of 80 degrees?

It's just intended to help you find a starting point to work from. It's not a be-all-end-all.

Is it going to give you the perfect yeast quantity for a new commercial dough? Probably not. Is it going to be better than a SWAG? Probably.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jvp123 on September 23, 2014, 10:08:32 AM
Wondering if there's a way to make a calculation if you are using two types of yeast - a starter like Ischia and IDY?
I was planning to do a 10% Ischia and .18% IDY.  I sorta backed into a guess at 24 Hrs at 63F and figured I'd just keep an eye on it.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 23, 2014, 10:22:01 AM
I don't know. I've never thought about it - probably because I don't like the idea of using baker's yeast in addition to SD. There might be a way to do it, but it may not be straight forward because the relationships are not linear.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jvp123 on September 23, 2014, 10:26:22 AM
Ok thanks .. I know Norma had done it here - reply #765 at http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26483.760, (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26483.760,) but she didn't recall how she figured out the time. 
I'm just messing around.  I'll just use my best guess and see what happens.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jsaras on September 23, 2014, 10:30:01 AM
Ken Forkish's "Flour, Water, Salt, Yeast" has several bread formulations that use "hybrid leavening".  As I recall he was using 20% sourdough and 0.2% IDY;  5 hours room temp and then overnight into the refrigerator.  I never tried it,  but that might get you in the neighborhood.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jvp123 on September 23, 2014, 10:36:53 AM
Ken Forkish's "Flour, Water, Salt, Yeast" has several bread formulations that use "hybrid leavening".  As I recall he was using 20% sourdough and 0.2% IDY;  5 hours room temp and then overnight into the refrigerator.  I never tried it,  but that might get you in the neighborhood.

Copy that thanks.  I should probably just keep it simple, but I suspect that would take some of the fun out of it.  :-D
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: mkevenson on October 03, 2014, 01:44:31 PM
Please excuse my ignorance, but I have read this thread in the past and scanned it now without finding the answer to this question:
Does this model pre suppose that the baker is making a specific style or type of pizza dough? Would or should this model work for all styles of pizza dough? If adjustments are to be made for different styles, is there an adjustment formula? And, if this model is a "starting point" what % of varient, would one assume to be "correct"?

The reason this question has come up, I have been using the model for quite a long time, relatively speaking, and by accident used 5x the model suggestion for my last dough. After having to reball and refrigerate my dough ball, ( normally ferment at 62F) I liked the end result, kinda.


Mark
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 03, 2014, 03:53:54 PM
It should work for any pizza dough within reason. I've used it for NP, NY, DS, and bread. I don't know the answer to the second question. I don't use it for cold ferments, but in the room temp and warmer zones, it works pretty well for me regardless of style.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: mkevenson on October 03, 2014, 03:56:24 PM
Thanks, Craig.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: PrimeRib on October 28, 2014, 03:32:02 PM
For different temperature fermentation stages, say 12 hours bulk at room temp (70f), followed by 2 days balled in frig (38f), do I sum the amount of yeast noted for each stage.  For example, 12 hours at 70f = 0.056% IDY, and 48 hours at 38f = 0.096% IDY (amount for 44 hours).  Do I sum these amounts to arrive at  0.152% IDY?  Thanks.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 28, 2014, 04:05:09 PM
For different temperature fermentation stages, say 12 hours bulk at room temp (70f), followed by 2 days balled in frig (38f), do I sum the amount of yeast noted for each stage.  For example, 12 hours at 70f = 0.056% IDY, and 48 hours at 38f = 0.096% IDY (amount for 44 hours).  Do I sum these amounts to arrive at  0.152% IDY?  Thanks.

Instructions here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,22649.msg230690.html#msg230690
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: PrimeRib on October 28, 2014, 04:28:10 PM
Thanks, and for anyone else reading this, the short answer to my question is "No".  See the link in the immediately preceding post for instructions on calculating % yeast for multiple fermentation periods of different temperatures.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Ben Holiday on November 09, 2014, 04:41:07 PM
Hey Guys, sry for the stupid Question, but im from Germany and don't understand any word.

What is

ADY
IDY
CY
?
 :-[
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jvp123 on November 09, 2014, 04:43:33 PM
Hey Guys, sry for the stupid Question, but im from Germany and don't understand any word.

What is

ADY
IDY
CY
?
 :-[

Active Dry Yeast
Instant Dry Yeast
Cake Yeast

check here for definitions in general ...  http://www.pizzamaking.com/pizza-glossary.html

 :D
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Ben Holiday on November 09, 2014, 04:56:31 PM
Thank you very much JVP :)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Pete-zza on November 09, 2014, 07:17:50 PM
Holiday,

See, also, http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,20056.msg196875.html#msg196875

Peter
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 15, 2014, 12:16:32 PM
Latest revision. This seems to be more in line with cold fermentation observations.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: LordBacon on November 15, 2014, 12:36:01 PM
Thanks Craig
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jsaras on November 15, 2014, 01:05:55 PM
Craig's made yeast his bitch.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: mitchjg on November 15, 2014, 04:08:02 PM
Latest revision. This seems to be more in line with cold fermentation observations.

Nice!  Thanks for putting the energy into this.  I don't do a lot of cold ferments but this looks much more in line in cold ferment land.  I think this will help a lot of folks.  - Mitch
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 15, 2014, 08:50:10 PM
Craig's made yeast his bitch.

There is a really bad joke in there someplace...  :-D
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Omidz on December 10, 2014, 04:35:26 PM
Craig. First off thanks again for putting this chart together. You don't even use Baker's yeast and here you are making it easier for everyone else. I have a yeast measurement question. I tried following your yeast dilution technique to get accurate measurements of very small amounts of yeast. But I shanked it and put 10 times more than I should have. I wanted to try again tonight. the amount I am needing is .01% with flour weight of 2 pounds. when I convert all this to grams here is what I come up with:

1. flour 907.184 (2 pounds)
2. Water 566.993 (62.5%)
3. Kosher Salt 27.21 (3%)
4. Yeast 90.7 milligrams (.01%)

Basically I'm trying your work flow in my new costco electric pizza oven to see how they come out.

the yeast is where I went wrong. So tonight I am going to dillute 1 gram with 99 grams of water and use 10 grams of the yeasty water. Does this seem accurate? 
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: parallei on December 10, 2014, 05:23:01 PM
Hi Omidz,

Craig doesn't seem to be on-line, so I'll give it a shot

If you want 0.01% yeast:  907*(0.01/100) = 0.091g yeast

If you add 1g yeast to 99g water you have 100g of solution.  Each gram of solution contains 0.01g yeast (1g yeast/100g solution = 0.01g yeast per g solution).  So, you'd need 9 g solution.  If you really want 0.01% yeast!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Omidz on December 10, 2014, 05:34:17 PM
Perfect thank you. I knew that was the case but since I messed it up last night thought I would ask
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 10, 2014, 06:06:02 PM
Thanks for helping with that Paul.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on December 11, 2014, 09:41:36 AM
Just now saw the new model for CF..That's great, thanks Craig!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Tampa on December 12, 2014, 11:54:50 AM
In case others are using Cake Yeast (CY) - and are experiencing faster than predicted activity - I am as well.  The chart predicts that 0.15% CY at 55F will be ready in 43 hours.  Mine was ready at 12 hours.  I had similar results in an earlier batch as well.  Weight measurements were done with a jewelers scale (on a 4-doughball batch) and cooler temps were set digitally and verified by two other thermometers.
Dave
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Omidz on December 12, 2014, 02:35:15 PM
Basically I'm trying your work flow in my new costco electric pizza oven to see how they come out.

The Costco pizza oven is going back. It's a fail.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 12, 2014, 05:14:11 PM
In case others are using Cake Yeast (CY) - and are experiencing faster than predicted activity - I am as well.  The chart predicts that 0.15% CY at 55F will be ready in 43 hours.  Mine was ready at 12 hours.  I had similar results in an earlier batch as well.  Weight measurements were done with a jewelers scale (on a 4-doughball batch) and cooler temps were set digitally and verified by two other thermometers.
Dave

It's an interesting question, Dave. I've studied a lot of fermentation data posted in this forum, and the variability is inexplicably large. As relates to the example you just posted, consider this post from Marlon: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,21730.0.html, In it, he uses 0.1% for 26 hours at 65F. It hardly seems possible that you used only 50% more yeast while dropping the temperature 10F and your dough was ready in less than half the time - yet this is what happened in your case.

This project has been frustrating because there is no possible way to reconcile all the different things that people claim to work. Obviously people's unique situations introduce a lot of variability, but even so, the differences are far broader anything I would have expected before I started working on it.

In the end, it's nothing more than I have said from the beginning - a tool to give you a starting point. Almost certainly you will have to tweak things some to get your dough where you want it - though your result here is by far the biggest bust anyone has ever reported.

If you try to recreate this result, please post if you get consistent results or not. A couple weeks ago, I noticed that when I got home from the grocery store, I only paid $0.28 for a 2# piece of salmon. They weighed the fish on a very accurate scale that was not properly zeroed.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Tampa on December 13, 2014, 07:38:18 PM
It's an interesting question, Dave. I've studied a lot of fermentation data posted in this forum, and the variability is inexplicably large. As relates to the example you just posted, consider this post from Marlon: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,21730.0.html, In it, he uses 0.1% for 26 hours at 65F. It hardly seems possible that you used only 50% more yeast while dropping the temperature 10F and your dough was ready in less than half the time - yet this is what happened in your case.

This project has been frustrating because there is no possible way to reconcile all the different things that people claim to work. Obviously people's unique situations introduce a lot of variability, but even so, the differences are far broader anything I would have expected before I started working on it.

In the end, it's nothing more than I have said from the beginning - a tool to give you a starting point. Almost certainly you will have to tweak things some to get your dough where you want it - though your result here is by far the biggest bust anyone has ever reported.

If you try to recreate this result, please post if you get consistent results or not. A couple weeks ago, I noticed that when I got home from the grocery store, I only paid $0.28 for a 2# piece of salmon. They weighed the fish on a very accurate scale that was not properly zeroed.
Sorry for adding to the frustration.  From the inception, your creating, sharing, and refining this tool for the rest of us doughboys was pure genius.  I'll look into the scale calibration.

Update: I should be able to get calibration weights in the next few days (when Bobino returns from travels).  In the meantime, I compared the opening of the dough shown in the picture against a second doughball (from the same batch) on the second day, and a third doughball on day three.  The flour was HG Kyrol at 60% hydration.  Day one (the picture) was a fight with gluten strength, day two was better, and day three was the best.  Perhaps I misjudged the readiness on smaller 00-type yeast activity and should have been more patient and trusted in the chart.  Next time...

Dave
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 25, 2014, 09:12:18 PM
No changes to this chart from the last. I just added one more decimal to the yeast %s because a lot of them were rounding to the same numbers.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 25, 2014, 09:14:44 PM
I did a 48 hours @ 61F with 0.025% IDY, and it worked like a charm: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,14249.msg355929.html#msg355929
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: theppgcowboy on December 26, 2014, 12:06:26 PM
Hey Craig, Just a suggestion, could you go to the first page and replace that chart with the most recent one and add a note and date that this is the most recent updated chart.  I ask this for those of us who live in the middle of no where and have satellite internet which is at most time just slower than dial up. That way we do not have to sift through all of the pages to find the most recent update.  The sourdo one too.  Just a request. It seriously sometimes takes a couple minutes just to load one page, try it with a couple of pages.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 26, 2014, 08:16:52 PM
Hey Craig, Just a suggestion, could you go to the first page and replace that chart with the most recent one and add a note and date that this is the most recent updated chart.  I ask this for those of us who live in the middle of no where and have satellite internet which is at most time just slower than dial up. That way we do not have to sift through all of the pages to find the most recent update.  The sourdo one too.  Just a request. It seriously sometimes takes a couple minutes just to load one page, try it with a couple of pages.

I can't do it. You can only modify a post for a certain period of time.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 26, 2014, 08:17:59 PM
I think the latest SD chart is the one on the first page of that thread.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Chicago Bob on December 26, 2014, 08:22:23 PM
Hey Craig, Just a suggestion, could you go to the first page and replace that chart with the most recent one and add a note and date that this is the most recent updated chart.  I ask this for those of us who live in the middle of no where and have satellite internet which is at most time just slower than dial up. That way we do not have to sift through all of the pages to find the most recent update.  The sourdo one too.  Just a request. It seriously sometimes takes a couple minutes just to load one page, try it with a couple of pages.
One can modify their post for up to 24hrs.   After that the request to modify must be made to your friendly Moderator.   :pizza:
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: theppgcowboy on December 26, 2014, 10:34:49 PM
Thanks Craig and Great suggestion Bob. Oh and those charts are pretty on too in my experience using the SD culture model.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Bobino414 on December 28, 2014, 05:50:17 PM

I am a regular user of the Craig yeast chart for my 00 dough.  In my controlled environment  the yeast   both IDY and CY seems a little high so I have adjusted accordingly.(but not for this experiment).

The question is whether this works for other flour types.

So with that in mind TAMPA Dave and I decided to compare GM 00 to Kyrol (HG).

We recognize right off the bat that this is an unfair comparison as the kyrol is higher in protein and is bromated however it will indicate if the yeast level and fermentation temps need adjusting.

Fermentation temp (60 degrees) was constant.  Yeast constant(.05 %). Mixing was exactly the same as we used two side by side Bosch mixers using same speed and paddles.

Hydration was a different story.  We selected 63% for the Kyrol as this is what Conagra uses in its farinagraph testing.  For most baking applications Conagra expects the hydration to fall between 61-65%.  For the 00 we used 60% which is a common hydration for this flour.  Craig uses 62.5%

After an eight minute mix, the dough was placed in Glad containers with peppercorns /poppy seeds placed 1 inch apart and placed in Daves 60 degree fridge.

The study had to be terminated at 49 hours at which time the peppercorn separation was measured:  00-1 3/8 inch; Kyrol 1 1/2 inch.  The Kyrol appeared slightly more active when viewing the bottom of the bowls.  Separation of 1 1/2  is compatible with tripling in size while 1 1/4 is doubling.

Pics:   1. 00 at 24 hrs
   2. Kyrol at 24 hrs
   3. 00 at 49 hrs
   4. Supposed to be Kyrol at 49 hrs. but met an untimely death.

Bottom line-the chart presents a good approximation in my environment.  I will reduce the yeast by 10 % increments until I achieve less than 1 1/4 peppercorn spread at 60 degrees at 56 hours.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: dsissitka on January 03, 2015, 07:00:09 AM
100%   Giusto's High Protein Flour
63%    Water
2%     Salt
0.42%  ADY


Two hours at 77F:

http://i.imgur.com/FfpXq6S.jpg

Three:

http://i.imgur.com/BpmcHmp.jpg

At this point the dough had roughly doubled in size. I tried to getting a better shot at the three hour mark but the dough shifted and some bubbles were lost (http://i.imgur.com/83VpmM7.jpg). :(
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on January 03, 2015, 12:58:10 PM
Just another thanks to TXCraig1 for putting this chart together. And also thanks to everyone who has contributed feedback. I use it every time I make dough. Which is not often enough to keep the details in my aging memory. I have to come back here, read the chart, read some posts, do the calculations, use too little or too much yeast, think on it, realize my error, remix and then enjoy pizza. :)

I usually do 3 or 4 300 gram dough balls and am always amazed at how little yeast is actually required. this last batch was:

27 hr
546 g flour
Water 327 g (60%)
11 g salt
5 g sugar
11 g olive oil
ADY Yeast 0.22 g

I used the 1g of yeast in 99g of water and then used 22g of that solution to get the itty bitty 0.22 of yeast. I have a 113 gram jar of ADY in my fridge that would last me a lifetime if it wouldn't eventually go bad. Obviously I'm not making enough pies. :)

Lately I have only been doing room temp ferments. I like the way the dough comes out, easy to work with and it tastes good to me and my family. Not enough experience with cold vs room temp to say one or the other is better, room temp is just a bit easier on short notice. I was surprised to read that 55 degrees was considered CF. I realize it's colder than I keep the house, we're a 65 - 68 house, but I've always done CF in the fridge, 38- 40. Is there any rule about what is considered CF?

JB
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on January 04, 2015, 12:13:46 PM
The results. I was very happy with these. The first pic is after 21 hours. They were developing a little fast and they went on the fridge for a few hours. Pulled them back out for another 3 hours at room temp.

1. Chicken, artichoke and pesto
2. Brocollini, calabrain peppers and sausage
3. Pepperoni and onions

All were very tasty.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 04, 2015, 02:00:53 PM
They all look awesome. Love those last two.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: OZ STAR on January 23, 2015, 03:36:25 PM
I started here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,26602.0.html. (http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php/topic,26602.0.html.)  Converted it to yeast % based on 60%HR and decided to use 25C as my baseline model. Why 25C? 25C = 77F which is the temperature I keep my house and I like the way it sounds. 7 is a lucky number, right? So two 7's must be twice as lucky - all of which of course means it was a SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess). Also, when I first plugged it into the model, some points I felt good about around the table were reasonably close. Basically, the model starts with this curve and then uses a growth model to extrapolate across the temperature range.

I had a very hard time finding any good data on growth rate at temperature for strains of  S. cerevisiae used in baking, so I used the model proposed by Ganzle et al. (1998) - http://aem.asm.org/content/64/7/2616.full.pdf. (http://aem.asm.org/content/64/7/2616.full.pdf.) wiggle fit for baker's yeast as best I could with the data I have. I started with Salvad et al. (http://aem.highwire.org/content/77/7/2292.full.pdf (http://aem.highwire.org/content/77/7/2292.full.pdf)) and Serra et al. (http://oatao.univ-toulouse.fr/1556/1/Serra_1556.pdf (http://oatao.univ-toulouse.fr/1556/1/Serra_1556.pdf)) and then hand adjusted the curves and let Excel Solver fit them to the Ganzle model until I hit or was reasonably close to data I feel good about at several points around the chart you see above. I checked it against some of the data Peter pulled for me a while back and it was generally in the ball park of the points I checked.

If I get some feedback, I can easily adjust both the baseline and the growth model.

Ganzle model:
growth rate at temperature T = a ∙ xb ∙ e-c∙x

x = Tmax - T

Tmax is the maximum temperature at which the yeast will grow.

In the model right now,

Tmax = 45C
a= 0.02645608
b= 2.037020784
c= -0.198964236

------------------------------------------------------

Gee!.

If this Pizza making isn't tough enough for a Newbie. Looks like I need a Masters in both Science and Maths. But seriously, thanks for going to these great lengths and more importantly sharing your knowledge and your thoughts with us.

We are truly blessed.

Pete
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 23, 2015, 04:54:15 PM
Happy I could help. I'm also happy to answer any specific questions you might have along your way.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: PrimeRib on February 25, 2015, 12:53:02 PM
Craig, I know the chart is a starting point, but would you say the starting point is closer to a neapolitan dough with no sugar and no malted barley, or to a dough with sugar and malted barley?  Thanks.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 25, 2015, 01:20:30 PM
Craig, I know the chart is a starting point, but would you say the starting point is closer to a neapolitan dough with no sugar and no malted barley, or to a dough with sugar and malted barley?  Thanks.

Theoretically it's pretty much in the middle.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pfhlad0 on March 20, 2015, 09:53:32 AM
Now that the weather is getting nicer, I'm starting to refresh my memory on fermentation times. I looked through the posts in this thread and noticed a few versions of the Fermentation Table, specifically in post #74 and post #188. The numbers in these two tables differ greatly. For example, the chart in #188 says that .25% ADY at 35 degrees should take about 101 hours, while the chart in #74 says 31 hours for the same yeast/temp. That's a huge difference. There are differences at warmer temps, too, but not as great (44 vs. 21 at the temp I'm using).

Which is the latest/correct chart?

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on March 20, 2015, 10:03:03 AM
188 is the latest (202 is the same thing).

What temperature are you using that you are seeing that difference?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pfhlad0 on March 20, 2015, 10:06:13 AM
I'm using a 43-degree cold ferment (in the fridge).
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on March 20, 2015, 10:12:40 AM
The cold ferment data you find reading people's posts is so all over the map, I almost cut the table off at about 55F. I decided to include it so people would have a place to start that is hopefully better than a pure guess. I've used it quite a bit lately in the 60's and 70's and it works very well.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pfhlad0 on March 20, 2015, 10:18:32 AM
Understood. If #188 is the latest version, I guess I'll start there. Thanks.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pfhlad0 on March 20, 2015, 10:43:44 AM
One more question. I read the thread that discusses a multi-temp ferment, but I couldn't understand it fully. If I'm using .25% ADY and want a 3-hour 71-degree (room temp) ferment, how long should it ferment in my 43-degree refrigerator?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on March 20, 2015, 11:41:59 AM
One more question. I read the thread that discusses a multi-temp ferment, but I couldn't understand it fully. If I'm using .25% ADY and want a 3-hour 71-degree (room temp) ferment, how long should it ferment in my 43-degree refrigerator?

That example takes you off the edge of the table, but you can still estimate it. Start at 0.25% ADY and 71F, you see it needs 5 hours. You then slide to the right until you find 2 hours (5 hours total minus 3 hours). In this case, it's off the right side of the chart, but you can tell it's pretty close to the edge - maybe two columns over. From there, you simply go up to 43F and see how many hours you need. Again, you will have to guess, but you can see it's dropping by about 5 hours in each column there on the right side, so maybe 20 hours or so.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pfhlad0 on March 20, 2015, 01:13:05 PM
That's perfect! Thank you so much.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pfhlad0 on March 20, 2015, 01:21:42 PM
I count the "1 hour bulk room-temp ferment after mixing but before putting into the refrigerator" as part of my 3-hour 71-degree ferment, right?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on March 20, 2015, 01:59:00 PM
I count the "1 hour bulk room-temp ferment after mixing but before putting into the refrigerator" as part of my 3-hour 71-degree ferment, right?

I'm not sure I understand. If you are saying you do  a 1-hour bulk followed by 2-hours in balls then into the fridge, then yes, that's how I would account for it.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pfhlad0 on March 20, 2015, 02:12:23 PM
Well, sort of. I do a 1-hour bulk, ball then put in the fridge for 20ish hours, then 2 hours at room temp before I bake.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on March 20, 2015, 02:21:49 PM
That's totally different. I would look at that as pretty much all refrigerated or maybe 1 hour at room temp. I would consider the two hours at the end as part of the cold ferment because they are going to be pretty much cold for all of that time.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pfhlad0 on March 20, 2015, 02:31:00 PM
So when people do a combination of cold and warm ferment, the warm comes after mixing but before putting into the refrigerator? You mix it, let it rise for a few hours, put it in the fridge to slow down the process for a day or so, then take it out and let it come to room temp just so it's easier to open, not because it needs an additional rise. Correct?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on March 20, 2015, 02:41:57 PM
So when people do a combination of cold and warm ferment, the warm comes after mixing but before putting into the refrigerator? You mix it, let it rise for a few hours, put it in the fridge to slow down the process for a day or so, then take it out and let it come to room temp just so it's easier to open, not because it needs an additional rise. Correct?

Generally, yes, warm then cold. The only reason I can think of to do warm after cold is because you didn't get enough rise in the cold and needed to speed things up. And yes, it's easier to open warm, and it bakes up better too if you let the dough come up to room temp or at lease part of the way, IMO.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pfhlad0 on March 20, 2015, 02:44:26 PM
OK, I think I'm good now. Thank you very much for your help.  :)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: stevehollx on March 22, 2015, 04:06:51 PM
Craig, I have a simple iphone app (for free on the app store) for pizza calculations, and it currently has your sourdough calculations built into it.  I'd like to build in the capability for baker's yeast, too.

If you don't mind, can you share the actual formula that you are using to build the values in the spreadsheet?  I tried to reverse engineer the formula from the values in the spreadsheet, but can't figure out what nonlinear model you are using.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on March 22, 2015, 04:57:59 PM
Craig, I have a simple iphone app (for free on the app store) for pizza calculations, and it currently has your sourdough calculations built into it.  I'd like to build in the capability for baker's yeast, too.

If you don't mind, can you share the actual formula that you are using to build the values in the spreadsheet?  I tried to reverse engineer the formula from the values in the spreadsheet, but can't figure out what nonlinear model you are using.

It's not quite as straightforward as the SD calc. I also need to make a couple tweaks and post an updated table. Send me a PM with your email.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: David Esq. on June 06, 2015, 08:42:02 PM
Steve's App (using Craig's sourdough data), is ZaCalc.  Not yet updated for instant yeast, but it is a simple way to predict the amount of starter to use based on fermentation variables. 
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: mitchjg on June 06, 2015, 08:52:26 PM
Steve's App (using Craig's sourdough data), is ZaCalc.  Not yet updated for instant yeast, but it is a simple way to predict the amount of starter to use based on fermentation variables.

FYI:  Craig and I collaborated on a simple, easy to use,  spreadsheet for the sourdough calculations.    is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UEj7IApIauBjj_9d3jdWrbjOjnWu5FICcgAFZY6p8Oc/edit
You can download it as a google docs spreadsheet or use it as an excel spreadsheet.

Except for some initial tinkering, I never bothered to try to translate the commercial yeast version to a spreadsheet.  It seemed to me that the idea of the stages was less important and that the significant cool downs and warmups associated with cold ferments would make an attempt to "automate" a CF a bit shaky.  Using the table Craig made is very straightforward and seems more than sufficient (at least to me).
Title: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: David Esq. on June 07, 2015, 12:11:47 AM
To each his own. The app is far faster to use in the kitchen or on the train when planning a dough. Not only is it easier to make entries on the phone using an app vs a spreadsheet but it lets you scale the ingredients based on the size and number of the pies you are making.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: mitchjg on June 07, 2015, 09:55:49 AM
To each his own.

So long as they own an iPhone or iPad.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: David Esq. on June 07, 2015, 10:23:59 AM
Or have an iPod touch. But, yes.  If you are to use an Apple App you will need an Apple device. Though I don't own my phone it is mine to use.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on June 25, 2015, 01:25:41 PM

So long as they own an iPhone or iPad.
Hey! Great work guys. Any updates on when could we find baker's/cake or IDY included in the app?

Thanks!

C
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on June 25, 2015, 04:53:43 PM
Hi all, Ive just started an experiment to test the prediction model for a bake tomorrow night, will report back.

Notes:

- I am using cake yeast, I have to create a solution since my scales minimum weight is 1g, so I am dissolving 1g cake yeast into 99g water.
- I used 80% of the yeast % provided in Craig's chart, since I live in  Bogot which is more than 8000ft of altitude, so less yeast for me.
- Room temp is 68F, so the amount of CY would be 0.075%, adjusted to 0.06% due to altitude, 20% less

For 6 balls, and a 29h rise I'm using:

Flour (100%): 988.76 g
Water (64%): 632.81 g  | Adjusted: 632.81 58.4g = 574.4g
CY (0.06%): 0.59 g | 58.4g solution
Salt (2.8%): 27.69 g

Hope this works!

C
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on June 26, 2015, 08:36:45 AM
Updates. So these are pictures after 15h room temp. Don't think they will make it 29h, what do you all think?

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 26, 2015, 08:46:15 AM
They might. Slow them down a bit with an hour in the fridge if you are worried.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on June 26, 2015, 12:26:52 PM
They might. Slow them down a bit with an hour in the fridge if you are worried.

Thanks Craig, just put one ball in the fridge for 2h since it was going faster than the rest, weird enough,  this was the only one resting in a glass bowl, the others are in plastic Tupperwares. Here's a picture, any explanation for this? maybe the fact that the dough can go up the elevated walls??

C

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 26, 2015, 12:30:54 PM
It happens. Could be lots of things.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on June 26, 2015, 12:31:29 PM
It happens. Could be lots of things.
all the rest are going slow and steady! that one is quite ready for baking, right?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 26, 2015, 12:36:41 PM
I think it could go longer.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on June 26, 2015, 04:32:42 PM
Ok, update. 23h now, balls have expanded laterally, but the gas bubbles not much... Thoughts? These have been at room temp all along.

C

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 26, 2015, 05:01:06 PM
There is more bubbles in there than you think. You also need to estimate how much it has increased. If it's close to 2X, you are good to go. It look like it might be ready but could also go longer. It's hard to tell much from here. You just have to bake them and see how they come out. After you do it a few times, you will get a good idea what to look for.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on June 26, 2015, 05:07:01 PM
There is more bubbles in there than you think. You also need to estimate how much it has increased. If it's close to 2X, you are good to go. It look like it might be ready but could also go longer. It's hard to tell much from here. You just have to bake them and see how they come out. After you do it a few times, you will get a good idea what to look for.

I plan to bake in 4h, so will cool them a bit... so for next experiment, I will try reducing yeast % by 25-30%...

C
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 26, 2015, 05:11:10 PM
Test and tweak. That's the best thing you can do. It won't take too many times to figure out what works for you.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on June 27, 2015, 01:21:33 PM
So the dough was definitely over-risen... It wouldn't fall off the Tupperwares since all the bubbles create a web-like surface, very tough to dislodge and then open/shape... It would be anything but round when done dislodging. Flavor was great, but I think that's way too much rise...

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on June 27, 2015, 04:01:17 PM
Hmmmm. Well, it tasted great....and it looks great...So, the problem is that..uh, uh....huh?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jsaras on June 27, 2015, 06:08:07 PM
If all the sucky pizza in the world were like that we'd probably have world peace.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 27, 2015, 06:28:01 PM
From here it's just a matter of practice. After you make a few dozen, everything will be easy.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on June 27, 2015, 07:08:23 PM

From here it's just a matter of practice. After you make a few dozen, everything will be easy.
Thanks guys, yeah, it's not really a lack of skill, not an expert of course! But these balls were almost impossible to dislodge, had to manually get them out, they need to come off cleanly to have a better shape!

C
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: sallam on August 09, 2015, 07:45:02 AM
Great chart Craig. Question: by fermentation time do you mean only bulk fermentation, or is it total time including final proofing after shaping? (for example when making deep dish / al taglio pizza)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 10, 2015, 09:46:09 AM
Great chart Craig. Question: by fermentation time do you mean only bulk fermentation, or is it total time including final proofing after shaping? (for example when making deep dish / al taglio pizza)

Total time.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Ogwoodfire on August 22, 2015, 12:00:13 AM
I was just reading this. I have 3 fresh yeast recipes that I use at times when in a pinch with 3 different fermentation lengths. This chart is incredibly accurate to what Iam using. This is really incredible work, bravo!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: sallam on August 22, 2015, 03:42:25 AM
No changes to this chart from the last. I just added one more decimal to the yeast %s because a lot of them were rounding to the same numbers.

Craig,
I take it this is your latest updated cy chart?
Did you upload a spreadsheet version of your chart? I can't seem to find it..
I'm trying to build an online calculator version of your chart. Could you share your formula please?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 22, 2015, 09:02:56 AM
Yes that is the latest version. Surprisingly perhaps, the inner workings of this table is a bit more complex than the SD table. I'm not sure it can be distilled down into a single formula the way we did for starters.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: sallam on August 22, 2015, 09:25:35 AM
No problem. I can handle multiple formulas and conditions.
If you upload the spreadsheet file. I can work out the formulas.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Obsauced on August 25, 2015, 01:26:55 AM
Yes that is the latest version. Surprisingly perhaps, the inner workings of this table is a bit more complex than the SD table. I'm not sure it can be distilled down into a single formula the way we did for starters.

So how would you use this with say a starter/baker's yeast mix like the one tony g. gives in the pizza bible?

would you simply subtract starter time over commercial yeast time? or is there some crazy math involved

Flour: 100
Water: 62
Ischia: 20
CY: .5
Salt: 2

\


Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 25, 2015, 03:21:06 PM
It's not something I've considered - probably because I'm fundamentally and philosophically opposed to combining SD and baker's yeast. My suggestion is to take your best guess, tweak based on the result, and test again. Repeat as necessary.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on August 30, 2015, 01:07:05 PM
Hi all. Anyone having this issue when fermenting on glass? Balls go almost completely flat and when I take them out, they are very soft, almost too soft/low elasticity to shape...  Thanks!

Carlos
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 30, 2015, 01:19:12 PM
Hi all. Anyone having this issue when fermenting on glass? Balls go almost completely flat and when I take them out, they are very soft, almost too soft/low elasticity to shape...  Thanks!

Carlos

Try more time in bulk and less time in balls.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on August 30, 2015, 01:28:35 PM

Try more time in bulk and less time in balls.
got it. Any recommendation when shaping these? Maybe slap them a bit to wake the up?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 30, 2015, 02:15:14 PM
got it. Any recommendation when shaping these? Maybe slap them a bit to wake the up?

I don't know that I'd do anything differently except be more gentle.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 30, 2015, 04:07:27 PM
When I was working on this yeast table, Peter helped me do some research finding data points. I thought it might be helpful to post them here - particularly for people looking for cold-fermentation starting points. These are fermentation data summaries Peter collected from posts in this forum as of the end of 2012.


1. IDY, 0.14%, fermented in the refrigerator for 120 hours (June/TX), tempered for 1 hour at a room temperature (RT) of about 80 degrees F
 
2. IDY, 0.28%, fermented in the refrigerator for 52 hours (July/TX), tempered for 1 hours at RT = 78 degrees F

3. IDY, 0.10%, fermented for 5 hours at RT = 79 degrees F, then punched down and fermented for another 2 hours at RT = 79 degrees F.

4. IDY, 0.025%, fermented for 12 hours at RT = 81 degrees F

5. IDY, 0.40%, fermented in the refrigerator for 24 hours (July/TX), tempered for 1 hours at RT = 80 degrees F

6. IDY, 0.0125%, fermented for 17 hours at RT = 82 degrees F, punched down and then fermented for another 6 hours at RT = 82 degrees F

7. IDY, 0.944%, fermented in the refrigerator for 24 hours (November/TX), tempered for 1 hours at RT = 68 degrees F (Note: this is one of those typical Reinhart doughs that contains a lot of yeast but where the dough can be used the same day or after cold fermentation)

8. IDY, 0.80%, fermented for 2 hours at RT = 65 degrees F

9. IDY, 0.012%, fermented for 18 hours at RT = 80 degrees F, then punched down and re-kneaded and fermented for 4 more hours at RT = 80 degrees F

10. IDY, 0.00449%, fermented for 24 hours at RT = 82 degrees F, then cold fermented in the refrigerator for 24 hours (August/TX), tempered for 1 hour at RT = 82 degrees F

11. IDY, 0.22%, fermented for 67 hours in the refrigerator (April/TX), tempered for 1 hours at RT = 76 degrees F

12. IDY, 0.20%, fermented for 72 hours in the refrigerator (May/TX), tempered for 2 hours at RT = 78.8 degrees F

13. IDY, 0.20%, fermented for 72 hours in the refrigerator ((May/TX), tempered for 1 hours at RT = 75 degrees F

14. IDY, 0.20%, fermented for 91 hours in the refrigerator (May/TX), tempered for 1 hours at RT = 82 degrees F

15. IDY, 0.30%, fermented for 48 hours in the cooler (April/PA), tempered for 1 hours at RT = 75 degrees F

16. IDY, 0.30%, fermented for 1 hours at RT = 75 degrees F and then fermented for 48 hours in the cooler (March/PA), tempered for 1 hours at RT = 75 degrees F

17. IDY, 0.375%, fermented for 54 hours in the refrigerator (May/TX), tempered for 1 hours at RT = 68 degrees F

18. IDY, 0.40%, fermented for 68 hours in the refrigerator (May/TX), tempered for 1 hours at 78 degrees F

19. IDY, 0.35%, fermented for 77 hours in the cooler at 40 degrees F, tempered for 3 hours at RT = 75 degrees F

20. IDY, 0.21%, fermented for 100 hours in the cooler at 40 degrees F, tempered for 2 hours at RT = 75 degrees F

21. IDY, 0.60%, fermented for 15 minutes at RT = 75 degrees F, then fermented in the cooler for 29 hours at 40 degrees F, tempered for 1 hour at RT = 75 degrees F

22. IDY, 0.80%, fermented for 3 hours at RT = 75 degrees F

23. IDY, 0.80%, fermented for 3 hours at RT = 74 degrees F
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: invertedisdead on August 30, 2015, 04:41:11 PM
Very useful Craig. I just put a dough in with 0.14% IDY. If I saw this thread first I may have bumped it up a bit for more of a 4 day timing.

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: juniorballoon on August 30, 2015, 05:13:46 PM
Hi all. Anyone having this issue when fermenting on glass? Balls go almost completely flat and when I take them out, they are very soft, almost too soft/low elasticity to shape...  Thanks!

Carlos

You might also try less hydration. Those look like pancakes. For the sticking, do you lightly oil your proofing containers? It makes the dough come out easier.

jb
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: invertedisdead on August 30, 2015, 05:40:37 PM
You might also try less hydration. Those look like pancakes. For the sticking, do you lightly oil your proofing containers? It makes the dough come out easier.

jb

What about balling with more tension like a boule?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on August 30, 2015, 08:46:02 PM

You might also try less hydration. Those look like pancakes. For the sticking, do you lightly oil your proofing containers? It makes the dough come out easier.

jb

I do oil them lightly, sometimes they take too much time to fall off. Will try to bulk rise longer...pizzas came out fine though
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 16, 2015, 07:12:47 PM
I was sent a PM asking me to explain how to use the table with a specific example.

A) 64F for 24 hours.
B) Then into fridge @  36F until for 120 hours
C) Remove and temper for 2 hours before baking

How much IDY do I use?

Here is how the table works:

Note: I am ignoring the tempering time as not much is going to happen during the two hours to room temp after 120 hours in the fridge. Since it will be a bit faster than keeping it in the fridge, you might want to shorten the time at 36F used in the calculation below to reflect it - maybe use 115 hours instead of 120. Personally, I'd ignore it and error on the side of over-fermentation. I try to always error on the side of over-fermentation vs. under-fermentation.

Step 1 - Start where you want to finish. In this case (ignoring the 2 hour tempering), that's 120 hours at 36F (the green circle in the chart below).  Theoretically, for a particular dough, every time-temperature combination in any column is at the same state of readiness. Therefore,  a dough that takes 120 hours at 36F to be ready will also be ready in 11 hours at 64F (blue circle).

Step 2 - Slide up or (in this case) down the column until you get to the temperature row where you will do your bulk ferment. In this case, that's 64F. In the blue circle, you can see the chart is predicting 11 hours at 64F. Remember, we are not going to do 11 hours at 64F however. We are going to do 120 hours at 36F which is theoretically the same thing, but we do need to get the dough to that stage of readiness.

Step 3 - We want to bulk ferment for 24 hours at 64F. When we are done with the bulk ferment, we want the dough to need 11 more hours at 64F which is the same as 120 hours at 36F which is what we are going to do instead of the last 11 hours at 64F. Therefore, we add 24 hours to the 11 hours in the blue circle and get 35 hours. What this is saying is that if we make a dough that will be ready in 35 hours at 64F, with 11 hours remaining, we can move it to the fridge at 36F for the last 120 hours and get to the same place (theoretically). So we slide to the left until we find 35 hours (yellow circle). We see it falls between 30 and 37, so we split the difference. It's a bit closer to 37 than 30, and you could interpolate for a more precise answer if you like. In this case, I'm just splitting it down the middle.

Step 4 - Go straight up to the top of the chart, and that's how much yeast to use. In this case, it's between 0.02% and 0.03% (red box), so I'm saying 0.025% IDY.

This should get you close. The table is just intended to help you find a starting place. It's likely that the dough will benefit from a couple iterations of testing and tweaking the yeast or time quantities.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Pete-zza on September 16, 2015, 08:07:01 PM
Craig,

Is there a practical limit on the number of time and temperature combinations that can be used with your chart? Or are there transitional factors between sets of times and temperatures that might make the amount of yeast less accurate?

Peter
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 16, 2015, 08:57:14 PM
Craig,

Is there a practical limit on the number of time and temperature combinations that can be used with your chart? Or are there transitional factors between sets of times and temperatures that might make the amount of yeast less accurate?

Peter

I've not tried it, but I think it would be helpful in finding a starting point with 3 time/temp stages as long as you weren't whipping the temperature back and forth 30-40F per stage.

I've used it quite a bit recently but only for 1 temp (bulk and ball at same temp or ball only). From 60-76F, and from 24-48 hours,  it's been spot on for me. The further from that you get the less I can attest to it though I do think it's going to be better than simply making a guess.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on September 26, 2015, 09:50:43 AM
Craig,

This info has been really helpful!!...so I have a follow-up question about using the chart in reverse. I have a guess (!)  how to do it right, but would appreciate your guidance.

Scenario is that while doing a multi-day CF, let's say , 121 hours at 36F with IDY at .13% based on chart  (with no RT fermentation in this example) I decide that instead of baking at the original time of 121, that I need bake  sooner  Let's say 73 hours ..

If I'd known the new baking time when I mixed, I'd have used .26% IDY. So, assuming an RT exists of 64, can I drop down the chart in the .26% colum to 64F, see 7 hours, and add that to the 11 hours in the .13% column for that temperature, add them and get  18 hours at RT 64F to bring the dough to readiness?

Also, since  many people here (most?)  a few hours counter time after the RT, is that something that's not really usually calculated part of the chart calculation? Or is a multi-temp calculation needed for that as well?

Thanks!!

 
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 26, 2015, 12:08:41 PM
Scenario is that while doing a multi-day CF, let's say , 121 hours at 36F with IDY at .13% based on chart  (with no RT fermentation in this example) I decide that instead of baking at the original time of 121, that I need bake  sooner  Let's say 73 hours ..

If I'd known the new baking time when I mixed, I'd have used .26% IDY. So, assuming an RT exists of 64, can I drop down the chart in the .26% colum to 64F, see 7 hours, and add that to the 11 hours in the .13% column for that temperature, add them and get  18 hours at RT 64F to bring the dough to readiness?

No, if you start needing 121 hours at 36F and ferment the dough to the 0.26% IDY column, you still need 73 hours which means you have been fermenting for 121-73=48 hours. From there if you finish at 64F, you only need 7 more hours making only 55 total, not the 73 you need.

Remember that (theoretically) every time-temp combination in a given column takes you to a dough that is ready to use, so your 0.13% IDY dough should be ready to use in 121 hours at 36F (green circle) or 11 hours at 64F (pink circle) or any other time-temp combination in that column.

The simplest way to get to 73 hours, assuming you could easily control temperature, would be to just slide down the column until you find something close to 73 hours - ferment at ~41F (red circle), but that probably not a realistic solution for most folks.

Let's say your only temperature choices are 36F and 64F. You have to find a combination of (a) time at 64F and (b) remaining time at 36F that equals (or is close to) 73 hours or vice versa. That's a little easier said than done.

So let's say you mixed your dough and as you were about to put it into the fridge, your wife comes in and says "I hate to tell you this, but you need to bake in 73 hours - not 121 like I told you last night. All you have to work with is the fridge at 36F and the counter at 64F. What do you do? We have to find some combination of time at 36F that when added to the remaining time needed at 64F totals to ~73 hours. You have to work in the blue boxes.

Looking at the pattern across the 36F row, you see that if we go all the way to the right, we still have a dough that needs 62 hours at 36F. To get to that point, we have fermented 121 62 = 59 hours. If we drop down the column to the 64F row, we see that we need another 6 hours at 64F. 59 + 6 = 65 hours total; not long enough.

You can see that the 36F row drops by about 10 hours per column over at the right side, so you could guess the next column would be about 52 hours. 121 - 52 = 69 hours at 36F. Likewise, you can guess that the next column off the chart to the right on the 64F row is probably about 5 hours. 69 + 5 = 74 hours, so 69 hours at 36F + another 5 at 64 is pretty close to the 73 hour goal.

You could work it the other way too, doing the first step at 64F. In this case, the table tells us we need 11 hours at 64F. Let's say we do 4 hours at 64F. We would have 7 left at 64F. Slide across the 64F row to 7 hours (there are 2 of them) and then slide up the columns to the 36F row, and you can see that we would need somewhere between 80 and 73 additional hours at 36F. Add that to the 4 hours we did at 64F, and we see that we are between 84 and 77 total hours. A bit too long.

If we do 5 hours at 64F (on the 64F slide right from 11 to 6 hours), the table tells us we would need 62 hours at 36F which is 68 hours total. A bit too short, so the answer is somewhere between 4 and 5 hours at 64F which leaves about 67 hours at 36F for a total of about 72 hours total.

Remember just as the chart was only intended to help you find a starting point with the expectation that some experimenting and tweaking would be necessary, it can't be expected to deliver hour-resolution accuracy for this sort of thing either. I do think it's better than a wild ass guess, but you will need to watch it for the last 8-12 hours and adjust the temperature as necessary if things are progressing faster or slower than desired.

Example 1 below is 36F first. Example 2 below is 64F first.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on September 26, 2015, 09:41:31 PM
Thanks Craig  ...I'm going to read this thoroughly tomorrow when I'm wide awake! I can see even in a quick scan, you game l  lots of great info here...so I don't want to rush it!   :)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on September 27, 2015, 05:19:27 PM
Okay, Wow! That's is such a huge help...Of course, being so non-math oriented, my brain exploded...Pow!

Along with all the the detail you provided, I can see that my original thought of how to do this was backward..I was adding hours instead of subtracting them (from the 11 in the 64F column. Since this math problem is the reverse of what I was trying to do in your explanation last week, it makes sense (even to me) that while I was adding hours then, I would be subtracting them now.

Clearly I gave you a doozy of a situation here, but your real-world explanation of why this might be needed seems just right to me...a need to bake sooner rather than later, when the dough has been planned for later...let's say the company you were expecting for Sunday night is now arriving Friday night.

Thanks for all this work, Craig.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on November 14, 2015, 10:33:22 AM
Some of last night's pies. Only 8h room temp rise, didn't have more time... Not bad at all taste-wise, pretty damn good.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jsaras on November 14, 2015, 11:15:13 AM
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: norcoscia on November 14, 2015, 02:47:34 PM
 ^^^ ^^^

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 14, 2015, 03:00:52 PM
Nice Carlos.
Title: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: c4lin on November 14, 2015, 03:54:04 PM
Nice Carlos.
thanks Craig. Improving. These were 2 today, with 2 balls left, colder and more relaxed dough, easier to open. Yesterday I balled 3h before, was a bit harder to open.

Carlos.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on November 15, 2015, 08:56:51 PM
Craig,

Just wanted to say a big thanks yet again for the great chart...Today I discovered a slightly different use.

As summer turned to fall and we're heading into winter, the house is of course cooler. I am CF'g most of my dough now but there's always the tempering where at least a little extra development usually happens.

I'd been using what seems to be a fairly standard estimate of about 2 hours....which worked fine in the mid-70's. But ten degrees or more cooler. dough wasn't ready. A check on the chart told me that 2 hours wouldn't work nearly as well as the temperature-adjusted time..6 or 7   hours.  Which yielded very good results.

Thanks!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 16, 2015, 08:29:24 AM
Glad to hear it.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: drogus on November 21, 2015, 04:21:23 PM
I'm sorry if that was already brought up, I haven't read all of the posts in this topic.

Some time ago I found a few different formulas for estimating fermentation time on one of the Italian forums, for example: http://laconfraternitadellapizza.forumfree.it/?t=71172167

What's interesting about that formula is it incorporates salt and hydration into the calculation of the amount of yeast needed. There's also a calculator based on that: http://pizza2calc.altervista.org/calcolatore-pizza/nuovo-pizza2calc/index.html (choose preset "Japi" to get the formula from the thread I linked to). The difference can be quite significant, for example for a 60% hydration dough with 3.5% salt for 24h at 20C, it outputs 1.23g per litre, or 0.074% in baker's percent. For 65% hydration dough and 3% salt and same conditions, it outputs 0.83g per litre, or 0.054% in baker's percent.

I know why such a difference can occur, ie. more salt slows down fermentation and high hydration increases the fermentation rate, but now I'm wondering how it plays with the prediction model from this thread. Has anyone using Craig's table taken hydration and/or salt amount into account? I almost always use 3% salt and I ususally use hydration in the range of 63-65%, so I wouldn't probably see much variance in my results, but I'd be curious to here other's experiences.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 21, 2015, 05:00:49 PM
As I've said over and over, this is not intended to be a be-all-end-all. It was created to give you a well educated guess where to start when creating or converting recipes. It was designed to operate within normal tolerances such as 1.7 - 3% salt and 58-65% HR, but it works pretty well outside of those ranges in many cases. Tweaking is to be expected whether you use my tables or something else. I've tested the Pizza 2 Calc with formulas that I know work (and are well predicted by my tables) and it over estimates some and underestimates others. My suggestion is to use what you feel comfortable with.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: drogus on November 22, 2015, 05:19:19 AM
As I've said over and over, this is not intended to be a be-all-end-all.

Sure, I have never treated it as anything else. Probably I wasn't very clear in my post on the purpose of my question, but I was not trying to find a golden formula, which would always work for everyone in every conditions. It was more of a question to experienced pizza enthusiasts if they ever take into account the amount of salt and hydration before applying values from your table.

To illustrate this with an example: as I wrote earlier I usually use 3% of salt and I do 63% hydration and the table works OK me. One day I may decide to go really high with hydration, like 70%. This is experimenting, so I don't mind a failed pizza, but if there's a way to predict the result better, I'd like to use it. So, if I know how such a difference in hydration will change the rise time, even if it's a rough estimation, it would be cool to have such a tool.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 22, 2015, 12:29:17 PM
Sure, I have never treated it as anything else. Probably I wasn't very clear in my post on the purpose of my question, but I was not trying to find a golden formula, which would always work for everyone in every conditions. It was more of a question to experienced pizza enthusiasts if they ever take into account the amount of salt and hydration before applying values from your table.

To illustrate this with an example: as I wrote earlier I usually use 3% of salt and I do 63% hydration and the table works OK me. One day I may decide to go really high with hydration, like 70%. This is experimenting, so I don't mind a failed pizza, but if there's a way to predict the result better, I'd like to use it. So, if I know how such a difference in hydration will change the rise time, even if it's a rough estimation, it would be cool to have such a tool.

It's a good question. Personally, I think the effect of hydration and salt within normal ranges is pretty trivial to other variables such as the temperature of your water, the mixing time and technique, the ambient temp and how long your dough is at that temp, etc. Once you are very confident in your control over the less obvious variables (that is to say that you are really consistent in everything you do in your workflow) things like salt level and hydration might influence whether you round up or down when using this table.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Bert on December 14, 2015, 08:50:11 AM
Yes that is the latest version. Surprisingly perhaps, the inner workings of this table is a bit more complex than the SD table. I'm not sure it can be distilled down into a single formula the way we did for starters.

To create a similar form as the one I did for the sourdough http://www.mightypizzaoven.com/sourdough-bread-or-pizza-recipe-creator/  I am thinking about using lagrange correlation for each row.

Craig, is it possible to get the table in excel file, it will save some time inputting the data.

Thanks
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 14, 2015, 04:12:39 PM
I'm out of town. I'll look for it when I get back.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Bert on December 16, 2015, 08:26:38 AM
Thanks Craig,
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Minolta Rokkor on December 19, 2015, 03:55:32 PM
Tbh, my dough has been in the fridge for 3 days and I barely see any development.
Water is 60%
Oil 6%
salt 2%
Diastatic malt 2%
Sugar 3%
IDY .5%

It isn't bubbling up or anything, there's very little activity is this normal?

I mix with room temp water if that helps.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 19, 2015, 04:00:28 PM
With that much sugar, yeast, and DMP, I think you may have bad yeast.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: MUAATH on December 29, 2015, 08:17:38 AM
what about
If the dough rest at room temperature for an hour Let's say the degree of thermal 70F
And then transfer to the refrigerator 35F
Will be complex will need to calculate what has been achieved from each stage i
Then subtraction of the final stage
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: MUAATH on December 29, 2015, 08:19:22 AM
what about
If the dough rest at room temperature for an hour Let's say the degree of  temperature 70F
And then transfer to the refrigerator 35F
Will be complex will need to calculate what has been achieved from each stage i
Then subtraction of the final stage
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 29, 2015, 08:23:32 AM
what about
If the dough rest at room temperature for an hour Let's say the degree of thermal 70F
And then transfer to the refrigerator 35F
Will be complex will need to calculate what has been achieved from each stage i
Then subtraction of the final stage

I would probably ignore the initial hour or maybe take a few hours off the refrigeration time, test it, then tweak the yeast quantity or fermentation time as necessary to get the dough ready when you want it. The table will give you a place to start - not a perfect solution. Plenty of other things you do could effect the outcome as much or more than the initial hour at 70F.

It is possible to use the tables with multiple timp/temperature combinations. Instructions how to do it are here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.msg230690#msg230690
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: MUAATH on December 30, 2015, 02:47:01 AM
Excellent
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: parallei on February 12, 2016, 05:23:17 PM
This dough was 64% HR, 2.5% Salt, 100% Gold Medal Organic AP (not malted), and 0.035% IDY.  The IDY was out of brand new 1lb package of SAF Red.  The photo is after 9 hours @ about 60F and 18 hrs @ about 70F.

I should add that this appears to be about spot on.


 
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jsperk on February 26, 2016, 09:56:00 PM
Tried this formula using the prediction model. Any opinions if I should change anything?
I let sit on counter for 20 hours and my house thermostat reads 70 degrees.

flour 100%
Water 60%
IDY 0.032
Salt 2.5
TF 0.105
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Minolta Rokkor on February 27, 2016, 02:22:03 PM
I have 6 day old dough in the fridge, I'll see how it looks, and i'll bake it today. And i'll post pics.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Minolta Rokkor on March 19, 2016, 01:14:04 PM
Having done a few 48 hour room Temp ferments. They taste amazing.
However, I'll need a wine cooler for consistency.

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Minolta Rokkor on April 22, 2016, 09:53:54 AM
Ok, I just purchased a wine cooler and a 20g scale, now i'll be ready. Tuesday I'll start.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Minolta Rokkor on April 22, 2016, 07:13:24 PM
No, if you start needing 121 hours at 36F and ferment the dough to the 0.26% IDY column, you still need 73 hours which means you have been fermenting for 121-73=48 hours. From there if you finish at 64F, you only need 7 more hours making only 55 total, not the 73 you need.

Remember that (theoretically) every time-temp combination in a given column takes you to a dough that is ready to use, so your 0.13% IDY dough should be ready to use in 121 hours at 36F (green circle) or 11 hours at 64F (pink circle) or any other time-temp combination in that column.

The simplest way to get to 73 hours, assuming you could easily control temperature, would be to just slide down the column until you find something close to 73 hours - ferment at ~41F (red circle), but that probably not a realistic solution for most folks.

Let's say your only temperature choices are 36F and 64F. You have to find a combination of (a) time at 64F and (b) remaining time at 36F that equals (or is close to) 73 hours or vice versa. That's a little easier said than done.

So let's say you mixed your dough and as you were about to put it into the fridge, your wife comes in and says "I hate to tell you this, but you need to bake in 73 hours - not 121 like I told you last night. All you have to work with is the fridge at 36F and the counter at 64F. What do you do? We have to find some combination of time at 36F that when added to the remaining time needed at 64F totals to ~73 hours. You have to work in the blue boxes.

Looking at the pattern across the 36F row, you see that if we go all the way to the right, we still have a dough that needs 62 hours at 36F. To get to that point, we have fermented 121 62 = 59 hours. If we drop down the column to the 64F row, we see that we need another 6 hours at 64F. 59 + 6 = 65 hours total; not long enough.

You can see that the 36F row drops by about 10 hours per column over at the right side, so you could guess the next column would be about 52 hours. 121 - 52 = 69 hours at 36F. Likewise, you can guess that the next column off the chart to the right on the 64F row is probably about 5 hours. 69 + 5 = 74 hours, so 69 hours at 36F + another 5 at 64 is pretty close to the 73 hour goal.

You could work it the other way too, doing the first step at 64F. In this case, the table tells us we need 11 hours at 64F. Let's say we do 4 hours at 64F. We would have 7 left at 64F. Slide across the 64F row to 7 hours (there are 2 of them) and then slide up the columns to the 36F row, and you can see that we would need somewhere between 80 and 73 additional hours at 36F. Add that to the 4 hours we did at 64F, and we see that we are between 84 and 77 total hours. A bit too long.

If we do 5 hours at 64F (on the 64F slide right from 11 to 6 hours), the table tells us we would need 62 hours at 36F which is 68 hours total. A bit too short, so the answer is somewhere between 4 and 5 hours at 64F which leaves about 67 hours at 36F for a total of about 72 hours total.

Remember just as the chart was only intended to help you find a starting point with the expectation that some experimenting and tweaking would be necessary, it can't be expected to deliver hour-resolution accuracy for this sort of thing either. I do think it's better than a wild ass guess, but you will need to watch it for the last 8-12 hours and adjust the temperature as necessary if things are progressing faster or slower than desired.

Example 1 below is 36F first. Example 2 below is 64F first.
So wait, how would I do 65*F 48 hour ferment ?

This math is killing me.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: oronzous on April 23, 2016, 02:23:17 PM
It reminds me of the logarithmic tables from high school.

Anyway, if your temperatures are somewhat stable, math can be simple.
Example: 
My fridge is 38F, my RT is 77F almost all year round. 

Looking at the table, it seems that 24 hours at 38F are roughly equivalent to 1 hour RT (values in row 38F are between 23 and 25 times the corresponding values in row 77F)

Hence, I only look at the 77F row, select the hours it will be RT, and then add 1 hour if it will be 24h in the fridge, 2h if 48h, and so on.
What if I need to postpone the party for the next day? That means the dough will stay 24 additional hours at 38, and therefore it will need one less hour at 77F.

_____________________

If I had a cooler at 65F, checking the table and dividing the values in row 65F by those in row 77F, i realize that 2.6 hours 65F are roughly equivalent to 1 hour at 77F. 

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Cotto on April 24, 2016, 10:20:11 AM
These charts look very helpful. It looks like I've been going way beyond the time these charts say the dough is ready. I have a lot to learn in this area.

I've been using 0.1% IDY in a 34 degree fridge for a shade under 72 hours. Sometimes I'll get an air bubble in the dough, occasionally quite large. I've been assuming the dough wasn't overproofed until that bubble collapsed on its own, but it sounds like it may be way before that? What qualities should I expect to be different between a properly proofed dough and one well beyond that time but not to the point of "collapsing"?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on April 24, 2016, 01:45:12 PM
These charts look very helpful. It looks like I've been going way beyond the time these charts say the dough is ready. I have a lot to learn in this area.

When it comes to cold fermenting in the fridge, the chart give a discrete answer for what is actually pretty large range. This and the SD charts should be looked at as a starting point for tweaking rather than a be-all-end-all.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on May 04, 2016, 07:22:53 AM
Hi Craig,

I know that you already explained it as clearly as possible, but it's still a bit difficult for my understanding  :-\
May I expose my case ?
I make a dough with a CY of 0,100%.
The cellar temp is 56F, which demands for a 54h ferment.
The room temp is 70F, which demands for a 19h ferment.
I decide to finish the dough at RT for 4h, which is 19h x 0,21.
I think that I should then let the dough first in the cellar for 54h - (54h x 0,21) = 42h 40min.

Is this correct ?

Blaise
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on May 04, 2016, 09:54:51 AM
Hi Craig,

I know that you already explained it as clearly as possible, but it's still a bit difficult for my understanding  :-\
May I expose my case ?
I make a dough with a CY of 0,100%.
The cellar temp is 56F, which demands for a 54h ferment.
The room temp is 70F, which demands for a 19h ferment.
I decide to finish the dough at RT for 4h, which is 19h x 0,21.
I think that I should then let the dough first in the cellar for 54h - (54h x 0,21) = 42h 40min.

Is this correct ?

Blaise

No. You read the time at 56F and 70F correctly, but the method you used to get to the time at 56F isn't how the table works. The way the table works is very simple. In your case, you want 4 hours at 70 to finish, so you start there (green circle). Go up the column to the 56F row and note the time = 13 hours (blue circle) then slide over to the left until you reach the 0.100%CY column and note the time = 54 hours (red circle). The time at 56F is the difference between the two times 54 hours - 13 hours = 41 hours @ 56F.

That all being said, it's just designed to give you a starting point. There are lots of uncontrolled variables, and you may find that you need to tweak the time and/or yeast quantity. Keep an eye on it starting about 12 hours before you intend to use it so that you can make corrections if things are not progressing as they need to be. Small temperature corrections earlier are much better than big corrections later.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on May 04, 2016, 10:55:02 AM
Got it now !
Thanks a lot  ;D
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: abrown221 on May 16, 2016, 11:56:59 PM
I've read this thread like 4 times now.  Extremely helpful, but I have a few points I am still lost on. 

I usually do no knead dough.  Is this data indicating when my no knead is at its ideal stage for shaping and proofing?

If I am doing no knead dough, should include the time spent in bulk and the time spent in balls as total fermentation time? For example, if i go for a 23hr with .04% IDY, should I do 20 hour bulk and 3 hour ball?

Is it almost always better to try for a longer fermentation time? If I have 24 hours for fermentation, should I do it all at RT and just lower my yeast percent? Or is it better to do 12 hours RT and 12 hours CF?

Unrelated: If I am doing no knead, should be doing stretch and folds prior to the dividing and shaping?

Thanks for any help in advance!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on May 17, 2016, 10:50:29 AM
I've read this thread like 4 times now.  Extremely helpful, but I have a few points I am still lost on. 

I usually do no knead dough.  Is this data indicating when my no knead is at its ideal stage for shaping and proofing?

If I am doing no knead dough, should include the time spent in bulk and the time spent in balls as total fermentation time? For example, if i go for a 23hr with .04% IDY, should I do 20 hour bulk and 3 hour ball?

Is it almost always better to try for a longer fermentation time? If I have 24 hours for fermentation, should I do it all at RT and just lower my yeast percent? Or is it better to do 12 hours RT and 12 hours CF?

Unrelated: If I am doing no knead, should be doing stretch and folds prior to the dividing and shaping?

Thanks for any help in advance!

The table attempts to consolidate a lot of assumptions and give you a reasonable starting point. I would treat a no-knead dough pretty much the same as any other as far as the table goes. With any dough, some testing and tweaking is probably going to be necessary.

The fermentation temp question doesn't have a simple answer and is way beyond the scope of this thread. My thoughts on the subject are here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=41039.0
Title: yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Sequioa on May 25, 2016, 10:55:16 PM
Here is the revised model. I think this will get you to a pretty good starting point with most formulations.

Please let me know your results.

 :chef: yeast model idy
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on June 07, 2016, 06:53:59 PM
Craig (or others),


Is there a chart that can be used with higher amounts of yeast while still at low temperatures. For example, is there a way to estimate say .5 or even higher percent in the low-mid 30'sF range  I think I rememember a chart that covered that  , but I may not be remembering correctly. Thanks
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 07, 2016, 11:24:03 PM
Craig (or others),


Is there a chart that can be used with higher amounts of yeast while still at low temperatures. For example, is there a way to estimate say .5 or even higher percent in the low-mid 30'sF range  I think I rememember a chart that covered that  , but I may not be remembering correctly. Thanks

I don't think I ever posted one. Here is an extension of the latest table pushed out to DEFCON1 quantities of yeast. 0 hours would mean something less than an hour.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on June 08, 2016, 01:16:50 AM
That's great, thanks Craig...that helps a lot!
 
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: carl333 on June 08, 2016, 12:49:12 PM
Funny. An emergency dough in an hour. 1 never knows....
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 08, 2016, 12:51:12 PM
I should have noted that nothing on that chart should be interpreted as a recommendation. There is a reason why I didn't push the original tables out that far.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on June 08, 2016, 01:27:56 PM
Understood  :)  I won't likely go too far down the chart, but some of the combos toward the top really will help fill in some blanks for me
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 08, 2016, 09:11:05 PM
It was more in response to Carl's comment above.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: carl333 on June 09, 2016, 07:29:58 AM
When I read Defcon 1, I had a good laugh. Actually I thought this chart was not far from a joke. Trust me, it's not part of my arsenal of tools.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: carl333 on June 09, 2016, 12:45:12 PM
Just another thanks to TXCraig1 for putting this chart together. And also thanks to everyone who has contributed feedback. I use it every time I make dough. Which is not often enough to keep the details in my aging memory. I have to come back here, read the chart, read some posts, do the calculations, use too little or too much yeast, think on it, realize my error, remix and then enjoy pizza. :)

I usually do 3 or 4 300 gram dough balls and am always amazed at how little yeast is actually required. this last batch was:

27 hr
546 g flour
Water 327 g (60%)
11 g salt
5 g sugar
11 g olive oil
ADY Yeast 0.22 g

I used the 1g of yeast in 99g of water and then used 22g of that solution to get the itty bitty 0.22 of yeast. I have a 113 gram jar of ADY in my fridge that would last me a lifetime if it wouldn't eventually go bad. Obviously I'm not making enough pies. :)

Lately I have only been doing room temp ferments. I like the way the dough comes out, easy to work with and it tastes good to me and my family. Not enough experience with cold vs room temp to say one or the other is better, room temp is just a bit easier on short notice. I was surprised to read that 55 degrees was considered CF. I realize it's colder than I keep the house, we're a 65 - 68 house, but I've always done CF in the fridge, 38- 40. Is there any rule about what is considered CF?

JB

I recall the days (not too long ago) where I would follow a dough recipe that called for 1 or 2 packs of Fleishmanns. Thank God I found this forum. So little did I know.
Title: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: the1mu on June 22, 2016, 09:03:33 PM
Question for Craig....

How would you adapt this to bread making? Say the typical workflow is 3 hours of total rise (2 hours in bulk, 1 hour shaped), would you use yeast for the 3 hour period? What if you do a punch down/S&F half way through the bulk? Would that change the amount you'd use?

My kitchen is about 82 right now and the chart specifies about .1-.13% for 3 hours at that temp. If I am aiming for around 3-3.5 hours with fermenting (not including mixing, dividing and shaping time) and if I typically do 2 hours bulk, 1 hour shaped, is that the correct approach?

Or does it in some weird way, it just not carry over?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 22, 2016, 10:05:33 PM
I'm not sure you can. The underlying assumptions are rather different than encountered in bread baking.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: the1mu on June 22, 2016, 10:08:38 PM

I'm not sure you can. The underlying assumptions are rather different than encountered in bread baking.

Would the underlying assumptions simply be to get the pizza dough to approximately double?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 22, 2016, 10:10:48 PM
Would the underlying assumptions simply be to get the pizza dough to approximately double?

Generally speaking, yes.
Title: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: the1mu on June 24, 2016, 09:31:15 AM
So, in relation to my above question, I tried a controlled experiment today in attempt to see if I can approximate how to use this chart regarding bread making. I decided to do two identical doughs, literally within minutes of each other with keeping everything identical except the yeast. I decided to ferment and proof for 3 hours and stick to that timetable regardless of what was happening with the dough, so that the difference of the affect of yeast amounts would be the only thing that would affect outcome.

My room temp was approx 79-80 for the whole three hours and I checked it at the site of the dough approximately 5 times over those three hours.

I started with 66g water and then measured my yeast and added it to the water (IDY). I then immediately added 100 g of flour. I mixed until combined with a fork then put the ball onto the counter and covered with plastic wrap. The whole process took less than 2 minutes. I then immediately measured out another 66g of water and the 2nd yeast amount and combined. Then again added 100 g of flour and mixed until combined, turning the resulting ball onto the counter and covering. I then set a timer for 10 minutes.

The yeasts amount were .32 & .64g of yeast, respectively. I kept the .64g of yeast dough on the right side at all times.

After the ten minutes elapsed I added 2 g of salt to the first dough and "cut" it in with a dough scraper (about 2 minutes) then I let that dough rest while I did the same to the second. Then I kneaded the first ball until smooth (about 2 minutes) and then again the 2nd.

I then weighed and took the temperature of each dough ball. They weighed in at 164.1 & 164.4 respectively and had a final dough temp of 80.8 and 81.6 respectively.

I used peanut butter jars that I had weighed water into to mark the volume in ml. I then oiled the containers with 1.3 g oil (sprayed it in and checked each until equal...). I was a bit heavy handed but wanted to make sure the dough would come out due to the inconvenient shape of the jars.

I then placed the dough in and pushed down to try to get it flat and get an idea of volume. It was approximately 125 ml.

I then let it rise for 1 hour. The .32g rose to about the 170 ml line and the .64 rose to about the 200 ml line (it is not super clear in the photos.

I removed each from their containers, starting with the .32g yeast one and was careful to not degas them and gave them a slight stretch & fold.

I again took dough temp, room temp and weighed the dough. Dough temp was 81.4 and 80.8 and weighed 164 & 164.4, respectively. After placing back in their containers the heights were about 160 & 190 ml.

I again allowed them to rise for an hour, however at 30 min into the second rise the .64 dough was doubled (to 250ml Mark) however, it lacked the poofiness that I look for in a fully risen bulk ferment.

At 2 hours, .64 dough was at approximately 280ml and .32 was at 225. The .32 was definitely not fully risen by feel but the .64 felt very close, if not slightly overly risen.

I then gently degassed and preshaped. The dough temp at preshape was 81.7 & 82.1.

Each dough was allowed to rest approx. 10 min then shaped into batards. They then proofed for 55 minutes and then I slashed them and put them into the oven. Baked for 15 min at 230C.

The .32 loaf had just a bit too much oven spring and began to tear at the bottom, despite a valiant effort to push through all my attempts at keeping my oven moist and create an ear. It also had a wider range of colors from golden/chestnut to white.

The .64 was probably just about where it needed to be if you don't want oven spring (so 100% fermented instead of 90%). It's color was much more even and most of the loaf was golden/chestnut colored.

Now looking at the charts, my guess is that the .32% #, while listed as 2 hours, is probably something a little over 2 hours and the .64 is listed as 1 hour in the middle of a lot of 1 hours, so I'd guess that is probably closer to 1.5 hours. With that assumption in mind, I'd say the chart was exactly right on with the times for doubling in a 2 hour bulk ferment. And that the chart could be used for bread to determine the length of the bulk ferment.

Pic 1 - initial dough height
Pic 2 - height after 1st hour
Pic 3 - height after S&F
Pic 4 - height after 2nd hour
Pic 5 - shaped dough
Pic 6 - proofed dough
Pic 7 - baked loaves
Pic 8 - cross section
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: The Lord Of The Pizza on July 16, 2016, 10:38:34 PM
Could this chart also be used for general bread baking, say an American Yeasted Sandwich bread?  Seems like it would work.  Thoughts?

I have made a few of these lately with 2 1/4 tsp yeast, 7 grams, at 361 grams of flour (King Arthur recipe) and had an overproofed mess on my hands I think just after an hour and half at 85 degrees or so.  Maybe this chart can fix things.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: The Lord Of The Pizza on July 16, 2016, 11:02:44 PM
So obviously temperature of kitchen is what will determine amount of yeast in a Room Temperature  rise.

So lets say I wanted to make this recipe, (King Arthur Classic Sandwich bread) found here:  http://www.kingarthurflour.com/recipes/classic-sandwich-bread-recipe

361g King Arthur Unbleached All-Purpose Flour
113g milk (skim, 1%, 2% or whole, your choice)*
113 to 152g hot water, enough to make a soft, smooth dough* (see "tips," below)
57g melted butter or 50g vegetable oil
25g sugar
1 1/4 teaspoons salt

And I wanted a ferment of 2 hours- (1st rise one hour)  Shaped loaf (rise in pan another hour) 

Kitchen is at 78 degrees.

Do I use yeast amount 0.384% as found here:  http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg434729#msg434729

Making that 1.38624 grams of yeast?

That is a great deal less than the 7 grams (packet) of yeast called for in most all of King Arthur recipes.

Any thoughts?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jsaras on July 16, 2016, 11:03:35 PM
Yes. Absolutely.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: The Lord Of The Pizza on July 16, 2016, 11:36:41 PM
Yes. Absolutely.
Recipe and details please!!!

Also, check my above post out and tell me your thoughts.  You are a man who knows what he is talking about!
Title: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: the1mu on July 17, 2016, 12:37:54 AM
Honestly in my own testing and experiments it doesn't work super well for bread.

What I find that works better is to work really hard on getting the recipe's DDT (desired dough temperature) right (especially KA ones) and then within a 2-4 hour window you won't see more than say 1.5-2 change in temperature (centigrade). That being said, you can also calculate the amount of change by some simple math. Yeast generally double or halves it's activity for every 9C/17F (not 100% exactly but a good ballpark). So say if the DDT is 75F and your home 82 and your original yeast is 1.9% you'd reduce it to 1.5%. That being said 2% yeast is high. Most recipes specify around .3%-1% IDY for 75 DDT. So your recipe seems crazy high to begin with. If your kitchen really is only 78 though, you're better off controlling fermentation with an accurate DDT and a good stretch and fold + degas half way through bulk ferment. In my opinion....

That recipe is probably shooting for a 78 DDT being a straight dough/sandwich dough. The Pullman recipe I normally used calls for 0.75% IDY with final dough temp of 78-80, 2 hours bulk with 1 S&F.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jsaras on July 17, 2016, 10:37:08 AM
Recipe and details please!!!

Also, check my above post out and tell me your thoughts.  You are a man who knows what he is talking about!

My bread making is a hybrid of Jim
Lahey's no-knead bread, Ken Forkish's ideas and Craig's yeast chart.  Bread is easier than pizza, at least for me.

Bread Formulation
Ingredients:
Flour - 100%
Water 78%
Yeast variable (see yeast charts)
Salt 2.2% 
(Total loaf weight = 784 grams)
oil for coating
extra flour, wheat bran or cornmeal for dusting

* special equipment - a 6-8 quart pot with lid, such as an enameled cast iron dutch oven
In a medium size bowl combine all the water (90-95 degrees) and flour  Let the mixture rest for 20-30 minutes.  The target dough temperature is 78 degrees.
 
Add the salt and yeast (dry yeast or 100% hydration active/fed starter).  Reach underneath the dough mass and grab about a quarter of the dough and stretch to the center.  Do this four times to completely enclose the salt and yeast.
 
Use the pincer method (see video http://youtu.be/HoY7CPw0E1s?t=1m53s).  Fold the dough over itself and repeat the process.  This should take a total of 2-3 minutes.
 
Perform a stretch and fold (see video http://youtu.be/kN1fpqlSleE). Repeat this up to 3 times all within the first 1-2 hours of the rise.
 
Lightly coat the inside of another medium bowl with olive oil and place the dough in the bowl (I actually skip this part and leave the dough in the original mixing bowl).  Cover the bowl with plastic wrap and let rest for 12-24 hours hours at room temperature (time variable- see yeast chart)

Shape loaf into a boule (see video http://youtu.be/pmTPL2J8OZk) Generously coat a cotton towel (not terry cloth) with flour, wheat bran or cornmeal; place the dough seam side down on the towel and dust with flour.  Cover the dough with a cotton towel and let rise 1-2 hours, until more than doubled in size.  Alternately, you can use a banneton basket for the final rise. 
 
Heat the oven to 450-500℉.  Place the pot in the oven at least 30 minutes prior to baking to heat.  Once the dough has more than doubled in volume, remove the pot from the oven and place the dough inside, seam side up.  Cover with the lid and bake 30 minutes. Remove the lid and bake another 15-30 minutes until the loaf is nicely browned.
 
Alternate flour blends:
1.​White Flour 90%, Whole Wheat Flour 10%
2.​White Flour 70%Whole Wheat Flour 30%
3.​White Flour 60%, Whole Wheat Flour 40%
4.​White Flour 90%, Whole Wheat Flour 5%, Rye Flour 5%
5.​White Flour 75%, Whole Wheat Flour 10%, Rye Flour 15%
6.​White Flour 70%, Whole Wheat Flour 12.5%, Rye Flour 17.5%
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: parallei on July 17, 2016, 01:00:21 PM
My bread making is a hybrid of Jim
Lahey's no-knead bread, Ken Forkish's ideas and Craig's yeast chart.  Bread is easier than pizza, at least for me.

jsaras,

Nice informative compilation of all the techniques involved!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: The Lord Of The Pizza on July 18, 2016, 01:00:31 AM
Craig or anyone else,

Does this chart take into account the temperature of the dough or just the room temperature.

For instance if I start a dough ferment in the fridge at 38 degrees (but want to finish at room temperature), obviously when I take it out at room temperature, say 75 degrees, its gonna take a while to heat up to 75 degrees from 38.

Does this chart account for that at all?  Have you considered measuring actual dough temperature instead of just going by room temperature.  I imagine the chart could be thrown off quite a bit in the interim while the dough heats to room temperature.  In some cases that could take a few hours.  Does the chart reflect this?

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: The Lord Of The Pizza on July 20, 2016, 04:47:42 PM
Making a 4 hour Papa Johns clone tonight, just mixed and balled the dough.  4 hours at 78 degrees, using 0.128% of yeast.

Will let you know how it goes!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 09, 2016, 09:23:59 AM
Does this chart take into account the temperature of the dough or just the room temperature.

For instance if I start a dough ferment in the fridge at 38 degrees (but want to finish at room temperature), obviously when I take it out at room temperature, say 75 degrees, its gonna take a while to heat up to 75 degrees from 38.

Does this chart account for that at all? 

It does and it doesnt.

It does in that a wide range of assumptions were used in creating the table so that its (ideally) not biased towards any one set of assumptions. It doesnt in that you cant specifically enter a dough temp as a variable.

Quote
Have you considered measuring actual dough temperature instead of just going by room temperature.  I imagine the chart could be thrown off quite a bit in the interim while the dough heats to room temperature.  In some cases that could take a few hours.  Does the chart reflect this?

The point of this chart was and is simply to help people find an educated yeast quantity starting point given a fermentation temperature and time. There are of course several other very meaningful variables, however those are the two biggies. The need for some amount of testing and tweaking is to be expected.

Given the wealth of information on this forum, you might be surprised how difficult it was to find enough usable information merely to make this chart let alone one that incorporates other variables.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: The Lord Of The Pizza on August 10, 2016, 06:53:25 PM
It does and it doesnt.

It does in that a wide range of assumptions were used in creating the table so that its (ideally) not biased towards any one set of assumptions. It doesnt in that you cant specifically enter a dough temp as a variable.

The point of this chart was and is simply to help people find an educated yeast quantity starting point given a fermentation temperature and time. There are of course several other very meaningful variables, however those are the two biggies. The need for some amount of testing and tweaking is to be expected.

Given the wealth of information on this forum, you might be surprised how difficult it was to find enough usable information merely to make this chart let alone one that incorporates other variables.
I have made my absolute best pizza using your chart by the way.

I will have to post details on it when I get a chance.  It happened to be one of those Papa John's I referenced above at a 24 hour ferment adjusted with yeast quantity on your chart.  Simply amazing actually.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 10, 2016, 07:00:30 PM
I have made my absolute best pizza using your chart by the way.

I will have to post details on it when I get a chance.  It happened to be one of those Papa John's I referenced above at a 24 hour ferment adjusted with yeast quantity on your chart.  Simply amazing actually.

Awesome. Great to hear.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: parallei on August 10, 2016, 07:04:58 PM
Craig or anyone else,

Does this chart take into account the temperature of the dough or just the room temperature.


I've found Craig's chart to be very helpful.  I try to adjust my water/flour/kneading time temps. to aim for the overall time/temp I'm shooting for.  That said I doubt an hour or so, one way or the other, makes much difference.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: carl333 on August 11, 2016, 02:00:22 PM
I've found Craig's chart to be very helpful.  I try to adjust my water/flour/kneading time temps. to aim for the overall time/temp I'm shooting for.  That said I doubt an hour or so, one way or the other, makes much difference.

Indeed it is quite a fascinating and useful tool. It's quite interesting to see how different the yeast amounts compare to dough recipes posted outside this forum.

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: HansB on August 11, 2016, 02:10:01 PM
Indeed it is quite a fascinating and useful tool. It's quite interesting to see how different the yeast amounts compare to dough recipes posted outside this forum.

Yep, run when you see a recipe that says use one package yeast!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: carl333 on August 11, 2016, 02:22:31 PM
Yep, run when you see a recipe that says use one package yeast!

Hey Hans, I've seen small amount dough recipes that say use 2!!   ::)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: The Lord Of The Pizza on August 12, 2016, 04:57:58 PM
Hey Hans, I've seen small amount dough recipes that say use 2!!   ::)
I think you could get away with it honestly, if you know how to handle it and it would not end up bad at all.

I have seen Lahey do it before and the result was actually very good. 
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Bert on August 20, 2016, 03:26:18 PM
I have been wanting to incorporate this table into a baker percentage calculator for a while, finaly I got it done with some help . The form corolate data that are not on the table. Try it out, let me know if it works for you or if you have any recommendation to improve it.

http://www.mightypizzaoven.com/dough-recipe-creator/
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: werty20 on October 29, 2016, 12:53:42 PM
It should work for any pizza dough within reason. I've used it for NP, NY, DS, and bread. I don't know the answer to the second question. I don't use it for cold ferments, but in the room temp and warmer zones, it works pretty well for me regardless of style.
this is for room temp ?
its hot her about 25 to 30 .. now @ 7pm 27c, 58% humidity
so with 0.15 idy i need to set the dough for 2 or 3 hour only ?
sorry im new to all this stuff
thx
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on October 29, 2016, 01:51:39 PM
this is for room temp ?
its hot her about 25 to 30 .. now @ 7pm 27c, 58% humidity
so with 0.15 idy i need to set the dough for 2 or 3 hour only ?
sorry im new to all this stuff
thx

Yes, you seem to be reading it right. There are dozens of other variables that can affect this. The chart is intended to help you find a starting point. It make take several rounds of testing and tweaking the yeast amount to settle in on a formula that works well in your unique situation.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on November 18, 2016, 02:08:19 PM
Craig,    I've been using this chart a whole lot..love it.  I realize after all this time (Duh) I'm not sure the best way to measure my fridge temp.   And I've tried two different ways with very different results.


 Initially I popped a small thermometer in the fridge right where I store my dough..and I like to keep it pretty cool. If I go further back on this particular shelf, things freeze..whoops, too cold. So I was getting a reading of 36F. All good.  Until..I thought maybe I should do an IR reading of the container/dough. That came in at 40F  I do  understand I'm reading air temp vs surface temp.

Which should I be reading to get my best results from the chart?  I'm thinking the 36 reading must be pretty accurate since I've had items freeze just a little further back on this shelf.


Thanks
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 18, 2016, 04:41:52 PM
Going off the predicted time from the chart, which temp closest to correct?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on November 18, 2016, 06:27:13 PM
Well, I left the thermometer sitting on top of the bulk container all day and it was a 39...so that must be the right number. Must be that when I placed  it in the fridge for the 36 degree readings, it was a bit behind where the container is...Temperatures must fall off quickly with distance from front to back..Is there an inverse square law or such in effect with temperature like there is with light ? Well, anyway...


I'd say that sometimes I've been a touch more fermented than I want, and if I'm working with numbers for 36 and I'm actually at 40 that could explain it...Probably not as noticeable or crucial when I'm using very low amounts of IDY and going  for long CF's  . But when I'm in the .3-.5 range I can see that a few degrees could make a noticeable difference.


I'm not sure I had understood how using a poolish factors into the charts..I think you  once said that that would be outside the information the chart could provide..But based on my  doughs, it seems that the chart lines up just fine withe the total amount of IDY in the dough even when a poolish is used. . On top of this, I'm often doing a Fazzari  re-ball / late-ball, which he describes as re- setting the dough. His doughs often have .5 IDY and have been in CF for a number of days. By the chart, they would be ready to bake, but he is proofing them at Rt for a number of hours...and in a pretty warm kitchen, and getting great bakes...so I can see that there are many variables to it .


Thanks Craig!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: parodius4 on November 20, 2016, 06:21:53 AM
First of all many thanks for providing this. It really helped me to get numbers that work for me more consistently. I also used it together with the SD chart  to see the relations when I mix SD and yeast in a dough.
And it made me use my milligram scale for yeast...

Feedback:
I use IDY and found I need to adjust thevalues at around a factor of 1.6
Eg when the chart calls for say 0.064% then 0.1% work better for me with the given time.
Or the other way when the predicted is 10h then I'm closer to what I think works after 16h.

Maybe IDY here is a little weaker or I look for more fermentation idk, either way it doesn't matter much as the relations between the values seem to work pretty good.

Greetings
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: HansB on November 20, 2016, 07:13:10 AM
First of all many thanks for providing this. It really helped me to get numbers that work for me more consistently. I also used it together with the SD chart  to see the relations when I mix SD and yeast in a dough.
And it made me use my milligram scale for yeast...

Feedback:
I use IDY and found I need to adjust thevalues at around a factor of 1.6
Eg when the chart calls for say 0.064% then 0.1% work better for me with the given time.
Or the other way when the predicted is 10h then I'm closer to what I think works after 16h.

Maybe IDY here is a little weaker or I look for more fermentation idk, either way it doesn't matter much as the relations between the values seem to work pretty good.

Greetings

I'm at about the same place with IDY. Straight off the chart does not give me enough fermentation.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 22, 2016, 09:58:57 PM
The table is only intended to help you find a starting place. Some testing and tweaking may be necessary.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: dkl1971 on February 18, 2017, 09:22:08 AM
Hi,
I'm new to this. Roccbox just arrived and I want to make the most of it. A friendly forumite pointed me towards the graph on p8 but what exactly am I looking at? I've read through and I don't think I've found the answer, apologies if it's there in black and white.
Fermentation time based on ambient temp makes sense but what are the % figurs at the top?
I guessing volume of yeast used. For now I have dried yeast sachets (7g) which is ADY I think. But is it volume of dried yeast to water or mix this as recommended on the box and then the percentage is volume of yeast liquid to weight of other dry ingredients.
It seems to make sense that a higher percentage of yeast speeds up fermentation.
For other attempts in the kitchen the rise has been done in the bottom oven of the Aga. Warm but not hot.
What do you do with the dough if you don't want it immediately? If the ferm time is up by early am but the party isn't til the pm do you just put it to one side/in the fridge or does that defeat the object?
I shall do more digging as answers must be out there, just I haven't found them yet.
Many thanks
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on February 18, 2017, 10:47:07 AM
The %'s on the top are "baker's percent" measurement for the yeast. It's the amount of yeast as a function of the flour weight. For example, notice that for 8 hours at 77F, it says you need 0.063% ADY. If you are using 1500g of flour, you would use 1500g * 0.00063 = 0.95g ADY. Most of the recipes on the forum are expressed in baker's % because it lets you easily scale them from a single ball to a 50lb sack of flour or more. When you see the %'s here it's almost always the % flour weight for all the ingredients.

A note on the table, there are a lot of variables it does not attempt to capture. It gives a middle of the road estimate, and based on your unique environment, you may have to test and tweak a bit to get things just how you want them. This is the latest version of the table (it's the same math as the one you asked about, but with an additional significant digit on the yeast %'s) https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.200
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: dkl1971 on February 18, 2017, 10:58:42 AM
Many thanks Craig, one more bit of the puzzle.
David
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: gfgman on March 31, 2017, 09:53:49 AM
Ok, so this thread is exactly where I want to be this morning.  Can someone help me out with the math, if you don't mind.  A long time ago, I concludeded based on Craig's chart, that the percentage of IDY for a 4 hour ferment, or an overnight ferment, was equal to slightly over 1/4 tsp. for 9.5 ounces of All Trumps. 
If I use 1/2 tsp. for 9.5 ounces, what percentage am I using?

Here's what I've observed.  With 1/4 tsp. and about 3 to 4 hours, my dough ball does not double, but it does handle really well.  It doesn't taste underdeveloped, but it does stretch pretty thin.  Longer than 4 hours, I can't say that it doubles, but it does get difficult to work with and has lots of air bubbles.

So last night, I used 1/2 tsp.  My experience was the same as other times I used that amount.  I was expecting it to be overblown by 4 hours.  Instead, the dough ball was doubled in size, and it was beautiful to work with.  I would say it was definitely much closer to what I observe from my local NY pizzeria, if not spot on.  The finished crust was still fairly thin, but I would describe it as meatier, with a better rim. 

I'm trying to wrap my brain around my observations.  How a dough ball with 1/4 tsp. IDY can go from decent at 4 hours to turning into garbage beyond that, and a dough ball with 1/2 tsp. IDY can also go 4 hours and be beautiful to work with.  I was thinking less yeast, more time or more yeast, less time equals the same dough ball just with a variation in flavor. 
Knowing what percentage of yeast I used will be a start. 

Thanks!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: hodgey1 on March 31, 2017, 10:13:23 AM
Ok, so this thread is exactly where I want to be this morning.  Can someone help me out with the math, if you don't mind.  A long time ago, I concludeded based on Craig's chart, that the percentage of IDY for a 4 hour ferment, or an overnight ferment, was equal to slightly over 1/4 tsp. for 9.5 ounces of All Trumps. 
If I use 1/2 tsp. for 9.5 ounces, what percentage am I using?

Here's what I've observed.  With 1/4 tsp. and about 3 to 4 hours, my dough ball does not double, but it does handle really well.  It doesn't taste underdeveloped, but it does stretch pretty thin.  Longer than 4 hours, I can't say that it doubles, but it does get difficult to work with and has lots of air bubbles.

So last night, I used 1/2 tsp.  My experience was the same as other times I used that amount.  I was expecting it to be overblown by 4 hours.  Instead, the dough ball was doubled in size, and it was beautiful to work with.  I would say it was definitely much closer to what I observe from my local NY pizzeria, if not spot on.  The finished crust was still fairly thin, but I would describe it as meatier, with a better rim. 

I'm trying to wrap my brain around my observations.  How a dough ball with 1/4 tsp. IDY can go from decent at 4 hours to turning into garbage beyond that, and a dough ball with 1/2 tsp. IDY can also go 4 hours and be beautiful to work with.  I was thinking less yeast, more time or more yeast, less time equals the same dough ball just with a variation in flavor. 
Knowing what percentage of yeast I used will be a start. 

Thanks!

Hi gfg,  Craigs chart is based on using weights and not volumetric measures. Myself and I think most everyone else here, would suggest that you try switching to weights to improve your baking/pizza making skills. I did a conversion below that will show you where you are at on the chart. Hope my math is correct  :-[

1/4 tsp yeast = .7 grams IDY or .25% of your flour quanity
1/2 tsp yeast = 1.4 grams IDY or .5% of your flour quantity
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on March 31, 2017, 10:19:51 AM
Agree, repeatability = scale. It DOES make a difference!!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: gfgman on March 31, 2017, 11:07:36 AM
Allow me to clarify.  I do use a scale, but only for the water and flour.  It doesn't measure small enough for the rest of the ingredients.  I take the weight of IDY and convert it to a volume measurement.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: gfgman on March 31, 2017, 11:24:36 AM
Thanks for the math help.  I was right that I was using .25%.  .5% idy is not on the chart, but if that is what works in my case with All Trumps, I might stick with that. 
I guess I should make a dough ball with .25% and let it sit until doubled, note how long it takes, and see what it's like.  I have my guess what I will end up with, but I won't know for sure until I try it. 
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on March 31, 2017, 12:41:54 PM
There are lots of things that can cause your results to be very different from someone else's. The chart was intended to help find a starting point not be a be-all-end-all. Some testing and tweaking should be expected. When you find what works, go with it.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: mitchjg on March 31, 2017, 12:47:12 PM
Hi gfg,  Craigs chart is based on using weights and not volumetric measures. Myself and I think most everyone else here, would suggest that you try switching to weights to improve your baking/pizza making skills. I did a conversion below that will show you where you are at on the chart. Hope my math is correct  :-[

1/4 tsp yeast = .7 grams IDY or .25% of your flour quanity
1/2 tsp yeast = 1.4 grams IDY or .5% of your flour quantity

1/4 tsp yeast is 0.8 grams (to the nearest 1/10) for Fleischman.  I think the weight is consistent for other brands, too.
The 142 1/4 tsp servings on the label is for a 113g (4 oz) jar.  113/142=0.796



Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on March 31, 2017, 01:07:49 PM
1/4 tsp yeast is 0.8 grams (to the nearest 1/10) for Fleischman.  I think the weight is consistent for other brands, too.
The 142 1/4 tsp servings on the label is for a 113g (4 oz) jar.  113/142=0.796

Which means 1/32 tsp = 0.1g, and since nobody can measure reliably measure with +/- 1/32 tsp accuracy, 1/4 tsp is probably somewhere between 0.7 and 0.9g - or worse.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: hodgey1 on March 31, 2017, 02:20:59 PM
Allow me to clarify.  I do use a scale, but only for the water and flour.  It doesn't measure small enough for the rest of the ingredients.  I take the weight of IDY and convert it to a volume measurement.

There are other methods you can use to portion out small quantities of yeast, but I use a 1/10 of grams scale from Amazon and it cost $8.50.

https://www.amazon.com/American-Weigh-Scales-AWS-600-BLK-Nutrition/dp/B000O37TDO/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1490984249&sr=8-2&keywords=tenth+gram+scale (https://www.amazon.com/American-Weigh-Scales-AWS-600-BLK-Nutrition/dp/B000O37TDO/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1490984249&sr=8-2&keywords=tenth+gram+scale)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: kurbanlikkedi on April 22, 2017, 06:24:38 PM
Yes, you seem to be reading it right. There are dozens of other variables that can affect this. The chart is intended to help you find a starting point. It make take several rounds of testing and tweaking the yeast amount to settle in on a formula that works well in your unique situation.

hey Craig is this the latest version of the yeast charge?

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on April 22, 2017, 06:37:30 PM
hey Craig is this the latest version of the yeast charge?

I think so. Is it this one: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg355933#msg355933

If so, it's the latest.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Minolta Rokkor on May 16, 2017, 06:43:16 AM

My setup is 65*f, .040% yeast. Which calls for a  24 hour proof. I also  reball 12 hours before bake time.

After measuring yeast in this method.
https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=21048.0

Using the fermentation chart, and a wine cooler.

I have been getting identical pizzas back to back, and they're perfectly fermented.


Next i'll try 65*f, .016% yeast. Which calls for a 47 hour  proof.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: parallei on June 10, 2017, 12:07:13 PM
Just another confirmation.  I did a 29 hour dough @ 57F and used 0.06% IDY and it worked out well.  The dough was 100% Bay City Milling Contadino 00, 62% HR, 2.5% Salt and 0.06% IDY.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on June 11, 2017, 03:28:23 PM
Rok,  :)


So you'r balling 12 hrs into the 24 hr ferment...I'm assuming uou're using words Proof and fermentation interchangeably. Or you're holding dough after and balling then?

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Minolta Rokkor on June 12, 2017, 06:38:13 AM
Rok,  :)


So you'r balling 12 hrs into the 24 hr ferment...I'm assuming uou're using words Proof and fermentation interchangeably. Or you're holding dough after and balling then?
Yup balling 12 hours into 24hr ferment.

BTW I  recently used ADY instead of IDY for the first time in years. Too me the dough had less flavor and a different texture.
I even adjusted the ADY to match the IDY percentage.

The chart was used at my usual parameters, 65*f, .053% ADY / .040%IDY , 24 hours.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on June 12, 2017, 01:35:36 PM
Thanks MR
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Minolta Rokkor on June 13, 2017, 07:41:02 PM
Here is the result of using the chart.

Flour 100%
Water:62%
Oil: 1.5%
Salt 2%
Sugar:1%
ADY: .053%

Fermented for 24 hours total at 65*F. Reballed 12 hours into fermentation, baked at 550*f for 7 min 30 secs on stone.

This chart is spot on for me.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 13, 2017, 08:12:11 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: fdmason on August 18, 2017, 01:17:54 PM
How does the temperature at fermentation account for warming up the balls for a few hours before baking?

For example, if I'm doing a dough that according to the chart would take 26 hours in a wine cooler set at 55 (.126% ADY) (the cooler is just more stable than RT at my house in the summer), I would obviously need a few hours at RT to get the balls ready to go for baking. If RT is 74 that would normally be a 6 hour dough from start to finish. If I needed to have 2 hours RT before baking, does that mean I should pull the dough out of the cooler 66% of the way through the ferment so roughly 17 hours?

Or should I just scrap the idea and do a 74 degree RT ferment with smaller yeast quantities even though there might be some more fluctuation in temp?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Pete-zza on August 18, 2017, 01:30:11 PM
Here is the result of using the chart.

Flour 100%
Water:62%
Oil: 1.5%
Salt 2%
Sugar:1%
ADY: .053%

Fermented for 24 hours total at 65*F. Reballed 12 hours into fermentation, baked at 550*f for 7 min 30 secs on stone.

This chart is spot on for me.
MM,

Another nice job. I agree with you on Craig's chart. It is a great place to start, and one of the best features on the forum.

Peter

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 18, 2017, 02:14:27 PM
How does the temperature at fermentation account for warming up the balls for a few hours before baking?

For example, if I'm doing a dough that according to the chart would take 26 hours in a wine cooler set at 55 (.126% ADY) (the cooler is just more stable than RT at my house in the summer), I would obviously need a few hours at RT to get the balls ready to go for baking. If RT is 74 that would normally be a 6 hour dough from start to finish. If I needed to have 2 hours RT before baking, does that mean I should pull the dough out of the cooler 66% of the way through the ferment so roughly 17 hours?

Or should I just scrap the idea and do a 74 degree RT ferment with smaller yeast quantities even though there might be some more fluctuation in temp?

Keep in mind that the chart is to help you find a starting point. Several iterations of testing and tweaking may be necessary. That being said, it tends to work remarkably well across a wide range of scenarios. Part of that is because of the data it's built on. It effectively averages the scenarios. Unless what you are doing is fairly uncommon, you may find that the table works pretty well without trying to incorporate all the nuances of minor temperature changes.

If you think the temperature changes are significant, you can use the chart to account for them. See the instructions here: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.msg230690#msg230690
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: fdmason on August 18, 2017, 02:44:00 PM
Keep in mind that the chart is to help you find a starting point. Several iterations of testing and tweaking may be necessary. That being said, it tends to work remarkably well across a wide range of scenarios. Part of that is because of the data it's built on. It effectively averages the scenarios. Unless what you are doing is fairly uncommon, you may find that the table works pretty well without trying to incorporate all the nuances of minor temperature changes.

If you think the temperature changes are significant, you can use the chart to account for them. See the instructions here: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=22649.msg230690#msg230690

Very cool I never saw those examples before and it helps alot thank you!

One more possibly dumb question that i think i know the answer to but perhaps you can point me to the science behind it. In theory these doughs are all ready to bake at their respective time temps and yeast quantities. As far as taste....how will they differ and are there sweet spots? On the forum it seems that the 36-48 hour RT seems to be popular, with RT being in the mid 60s to possibly low 70s. But how does that taste compare to an 85 degree 3 hour dough?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 18, 2017, 02:57:57 PM
One more possibly dumb question that i think i know the answer to but perhaps you can point me to the science behind it.

I assembled what I've been able to collect on the science here: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=41039.0
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: hotsawce on September 21, 2017, 11:25:42 PM
I'm just curious, what is the water temperature average being used to mix these doughs? And is the chart starting from the finish of the mix, the bulk ferment stage, or when the dough is balled?

I've actually never used this chart, but now that I am getting into some extended fermentation and looking to move to room temp and hold at room temp it should be a huge help.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: jsaras on September 21, 2017, 11:31:57 PM
I'm just curious, what is the water temperature average being used to mix these doughs? And is the chart starting from the finish of the mix, the bulk ferment stage, or when the dough is balled?

I've actually never used this chart, but now that I am getting into some extended fermentation and looking to move to room temp and hold at room temp it should be a huge help.

I'm sure that Craig will chime in, but I've been using subtracting the starting flour temperature in Fahrenheit from the number 130 to determine what the starting water temperature should be.   This results in the finished dough being just a bit cooler than room temperature after it's been mixed.  I'd rather have a slow fermentation that I can speed up a bit by warming it up at the end rather than the opposite scenario. 
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: HansB on September 22, 2017, 08:04:54 AM
I'm just curious, what is the water temperature average being used to mix these doughs? And is the chart starting from the finish of the mix, the bulk ferment stage, or when the dough is balled?

I've actually never used this chart, but now that I am getting into some extended fermentation and looking to move to room temp and hold at room temp it should be a huge help.

I think the chart is a very good guide to use as a starting point as there are so many variables. I like a well fermented dough so for the numbers to work for me I use two to three times the percentage of IDY shown on the chart for doughs fermented for 24 hours or less.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 22, 2017, 09:02:12 AM
The chart is a big average. I fit a set of equations to a sample of data comprised of many different formulas and workflows. So, like hans said, it's a starting point, but also like Jonas indicated, it can be all things to all people.  Once you find the little tweaks that make it work for you it's pretty accurate. For me, I find that if it go just a bit more than it tells me - not even a full column to the right - it almost always works perfectly. For NP, I start with cold water, but for anything else, I just use tap water at whatever temperature comes out.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: rdbedwards on September 29, 2017, 05:59:56 PM
Apologies if this has been answered before (my search yielded no applicable result), but I've noticed a difference in my dough temperature compared to ambient room temperature, no doubt due to the heat byproduct of fermentation.  Is the target temp in the chart that Craig developed the room temperature or that of the dough itself?  Or is it not enough of a difference to matter?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 29, 2017, 06:07:08 PM
Apologies if this has been answered before (my search yielded no applicable result), but I've noticed a difference in my dough temperature compared to ambient room temperature, no doubt due to the heat byproduct of fermentation.  Is the target temp in the chart that Craig developed the room temperature or that of the dough itself?  Or is it not enough of a difference to matter?

The target temp is the room temp - not the dough. For very large batches in bulk, the mass effect may need to be considered and the time adjusted down or yeast adjusted up a bit.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Andreas_1972 on November 01, 2017, 04:24:17 PM
Hi Craig,

I've made some vids showing the dough rising in a scaled bottle over time. Perhaps you're interested in?

Regards, Andreas
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 01, 2017, 05:08:49 PM
I think it would be interesting to watch, and you're welcome to post it here.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Andreas_1972 on November 01, 2017, 05:34:50 PM
I'm not allowed to post videos:

An Error Has Occurred!
OUTPUT.mp4.
You cannot upload that type of file. The only allowed extensions are jpg,jpeg,gif,png.


Regards, Andreas
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 01, 2017, 05:35:32 PM
You'd have to upload it you youtube and post a link.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Andreas_1972 on November 01, 2017, 05:43:48 PM
You can view it for 48h at https://expirebox.com/download/bb4156ada342975959c61d02b196db68.html
It shows the fermentation of a dough with 60% hydration and 0,2% CY (200g flour, 120g water, 0.4g yeast)

Regards, Andreas
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on November 01, 2017, 05:56:59 PM
What was the temperature?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Andreas_1972 on November 01, 2017, 06:05:40 PM
You can see the measured temperature in the video it's in C (round 22C)

Regards, Andreas
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Andreas_1972 on November 01, 2017, 06:09:20 PM
I'll take similar videos for 1% yeast, raisin water and sourdough fermentation, too.

Regards, Andreas
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: joe1515 on December 30, 2017, 02:48:47 PM
Latest revision. This seems to be more in line with cold fermentation observations.

I am curious why the chart only goes to 55 hours when you are fermenting at 37 F (basically in the fridge)?  I would l love to see 48, 24, 17, etc...

Joe
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: joe1515 on December 31, 2017, 09:05:06 AM
Another stupid question, why is the chart not in 24 hour time periods for the longer times.   For example why is there no 24,48, or even 96 hour proof for 37 degrees?

Thanks,

Joe
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: bifi85 on January 04, 2018, 06:57:05 PM
Quote
(TXCraig1 August 07, 2013): If I get some feedback, I can easily adjust both the baseline and the growth model.
Ganzle model:
growth rate at temperature T = a ∙ xb ∙ e-c∙x

x = Tmax - T

Tmax is the maximum temperature at which the yeast will grow.

In the model right now,

Tmax = 45 C
a= 0.02645608
b= 2.037020784
c= -0.198964236

Are the numbers from August 2013 still correct? Do you have a spread sheet aka Yeast Calculator (even so it is a rule-of-thumb estimate, a very good one)?

I want to focus more on C and CY in the first place.  48h rise on for me possible and exact C-values.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 10, 2018, 09:47:01 AM
Another stupid question, why is the chart not in 24 hour time periods for the longer times.   For example why is there no 24,48, or even 96 hour proof for 37 degrees?

Here is the table pushed out to 1% IDY / 3% CY:
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 10, 2018, 09:57:09 AM
Are the numbers from August 2013 still correct? Do you have a spread sheet aka Yeast Calculator (even so it is a rule-of-thumb estimate, a very good one)?

I want to focus more on C and CY in the first place.  48h rise on for me possible and exact C-values.

No, and the structure of the model has also changed a bit since that post.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on January 10, 2018, 12:34:39 PM
As always, great job Craig! Thanks for the time you put into this!!!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: norcoscia on January 10, 2018, 01:14:27 PM
Yes, great chart to establish very reasonable starting values when determining fermentation timing. Thanks so much for the work and generosity by sharing your efforts!

It would be cool if this could somehow be used in the new dough calculator to allow time and temp to be part of the planning process (estimate when the dough would be ready to cook / use).

Every time I look at this chart I try to imagine a way to visualize the varying usability window for any cell in the sheet. I can intuitively see that window (bubble) growing as you move from bottom of the chart to top and from right to left but I'm unable to figure out the best math (and charting mechanism) to actually visualize this bubble of usability / uncertainty.

It would be cool to somehow see this on a third axis by possibly graphing the differences between adjacent cells, but everything I try to work it out as a thought experiment it just gives me a headache - maybe someone with better math credentials (like Mitch) can solve it  :chef:
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: bifi85 on January 11, 2018, 06:37:47 PM
TXCraig1, do you have a chart that focus on 48 h timings? Would be really great. For every temperature mark (59 F, 60 F, etc.) the yeast % (0,0000) for a 48 h rising.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: the1mu on January 11, 2018, 07:04:49 PM
TXCraig1, do you have a chart that focus on 48 h timings? Would be really great. For every temperature mark (59 F, 60 F, etc.) the yeast % (0,0000) for a 48 h rising.

The chart is meant as a starting point. Its not going to be exact because their aren other at play as well.

You could go through and make your own grabbing all values say in a 4 hour window (46-50hrs). Then just list those values and you would have something close to what you are asking for. Then experiment and take notes.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: ARenko on January 12, 2018, 10:04:36 AM
Thanks for the updated chart Craig - it now includes the yeast amount for the recipe I've been learning on.

Any chance a moderator can update the original post to have the latest chart whenever Craig updates it?  Took me a while to find the latest last time I was looking.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 12, 2018, 10:22:16 AM
TXCraig1, do you have a chart that focus on 48 h timings? Would be really great. For every temperature mark (59 F, 60 F, etc.) the yeast % (0,0000) for a 48 h rising.

Here you go:
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: bifi85 on January 13, 2018, 10:47:39 AM
Thank you!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: bt3100fs on January 25, 2018, 02:56:31 PM
This and the sourdough prediction models are very interesting.

I am trying to reconcile Baking Steel's 72-hour pizza dough (http://www.bakingsteel.com/blog/72-hour-pizza-dough) with this model. I'm probably missing something really stupid. Apologies in advance....

It calls for 1 gram ADY for 500 grams bread flour for a 24 hour room temperature rise, followed by 48 to 96 hours CF. 1 gram ADY to 500 grams BF is 0.2% ADY. According to the model, the dough would be ready to go at about 5 hours at room temp. Yet, the recipe calls for another 19 hours at room temp and 48+ hours CF.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 25, 2018, 03:13:31 PM
0.2% is a lot of yeast for a 24 hour RT ferment. It's going to be a well fermented dough. If it's only 2X after 24 hours, my guess is that it's peaked well above that and fallen back some.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Heikjo on January 31, 2018, 04:02:45 PM
Incredible work, Craig! This is a fantastic tool for anyone making pizzas in here. I love the thoroughness and effort put in to make pizza making more reliable and easier to adjust, without having to do large amounts of experiments each.

I've read a few pages and skimmed a few others in here, but yet to find answers to a few questions. One answer I found in your thread on fermentation: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=41039.msg504234#msg504234 where you mentioned using 76-77F for doughs with IDY. What amounts of IDY do you use when making doughs? Have you (or anyone else in here) found thresholds where the dough starts tasting too much yeast or the dough isn't developed as you'd want it to be? Are there noticeable differences to 12 hour, 24 hour, 48 hour RT, of course using the corresponding amounts of yeast.

For instance when using ambient temp of 76-77F, how do you decide on the amount of yeast? The table gives you options for how long it's supposed to be fermenting, but do you have any favorite amounts or times? I'm very flexible when it comes to the fermentation times, so I can pretty much choose from across a large part of the table.

Btw. Do you share your spreadsheet? Would be nice to have one I can customize myself.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: joe1515 on April 23, 2018, 10:55:22 AM
OK, so I'm confused (granted it doesn't take much :))  about the proper amount of CY I should be using per 1,000 grams of flour.  Most information I read say's to use about 1 gram of CY per 1,000 grams of flour for Neapolitan style pizza.

Based on the prediction model chart assuming 80 fermentation hours at 37 F,  I should be using 6 grams of CY assuming 0.600%.

What am I missing, am I using the prediction model correctly? Is my calculation wrong?

Thanks,

Joe
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: vtsteve on April 23, 2018, 11:40:27 AM
"Most Neapolitan" isn't using cold fermentation (or 80 hours)? Can you cite a specific formula that you're comparing against?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: joe1515 on April 23, 2018, 11:46:13 AM
"Most Neapolitan" isn't using cold fermentation (or 80 hours)? Can you cite a specific formula that you're comparing against?

Yes that's true about the cold fermentation they are mostly using room temparature.  Enzo Coccia and a lot of blogs and facebook forums that I am apart of, to name a few.

One of my major questions is; am I calculating the prediction model correctly? 

Thanks!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Heikjo on April 23, 2018, 11:54:25 AM
OK, so I'm confused (granted it doesn't take much :))  about the proper amount of CY I should be using per 1,000 grams of flour.  Most information I read say's to use about 1 gram of CY per 1,000 grams of flour for Neapolitan style pizza.

Based on the prediction model chart assuming 80 fermentation hours at 37 F,  I should be using 6 grams of CY assuming 0.600%.

What am I missing, I am using the prediction model correctly? Is my calculation wrong?

Thanks,

Joe
You are reading it correctly. At 37F and 0.6% CY, the predicted hours is 80. 37F is pretty cold and will slow down the fermentation rate quite considerably. At this low temperature, the range can be pretty large on what works, as Craig says in this post: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg427980#msg427980

Aa you can see from the table, it predicts 80 hours at 37F and 90 hours at 36F, both using 0.6% CY. One degree Fahrenheit is a very small change and you might be hard pressed to keep a dough at a consistent temperature in a fridge over 80 hours. If you use this amount, the dough might not be done after 80 hours or maybe even 100 if you're unfortunate. It is of course possible to check on the dough the day before you intend to use it, and maybe take it out of the fridge some hours before you plan to bake and let the dough finish its fermentation closer to room temperature to speed it up.

You can certainly use a fridge, but you'll either need a lot of time or to increase the amount of yeast. If you ferment it at a higher temperature, you can lower the hours and/or amount of yeast.

The amount of yeast is one part of the equation. If you don't have information on the fermentation time and at which temperature, using a random recipe found on the internet won't be much helpful. You might even find recipes that suggest amounts and times that gives you under- or overfermented doughs.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on May 13, 2018, 04:46:53 PM
Hi Craig,
Would it be possible for you to "publish" here a chart (or a piece of chart) with the % of CY from 0,010% up to 3,000% and the temperature from 80F up to 95F ?
If it's easier for you to show from 35F to 95F, it's fine enough !
I'm sure it doesn't make sense for you, so let me explain.
I'd like to take the last pre-oven rise into consideration in the total fermentation time calculation. I've decided that I can bring the dough balls in the kitchen 2 hours before baking time, but only as long as the temperature in the kitchen is not higher than 78F. If the temperature is higher than 78C and sometimes it can reach as close as 92F, I presume it's better to have them there only 1 hour before baking time.
The problem is that there is no "1" hour in your already published charts in the columns with less than 1,000% of CY, whatever the temperature is.
In fact it would be great if you could publish your "Fermentation-Table---Extended" down to 95F.
I don't know if this makes any more sense now... But I'd really appreciate  ;D
Thanks a lot in advance  :angel:
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on May 13, 2018, 07:10:09 PM
Here you go (click to enlarge):
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on May 14, 2018, 12:19:23 PM
Thank you so much !
 :)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Heikjo on May 14, 2018, 03:22:01 PM
Edit: I got starter and yeast sheets mixed up and posted the sourdough sheet. Sorry for the confusion.   :-X
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: blaise on May 16, 2018, 07:48:10 PM
Hi there !

(Youll quickly notice that English is not my mother tongue. Be indulgent!)

Maybe this may interest some of you.
I transferred Craigs prediction time chart in a FileMaker database, so you can have it on your iPhone or iPad with the FileMaker Go app (which is free) or on your desktop or laptop if you have FileMaker Pro installed (which is not free). Im afraid that the (free) FileMaker Go is available only for iPhone and iPad.

Till now the database shows the CY percentages only, because this is what I use. But should anybody ask, I can build versions with ADY and/or IDY.

I did this in order to facilitate the pizza dough schedule on the mid to long term.
It is especially useful if you have a cellar, a wine cooler, or a room where the temperature is, ideally, more or less constant and significantly cooler than the place where you will bake the pizza.

How does it work ?
See the screen shot !

On the upper left you have drop-down fields where you can set the F temperature of the Cellar (or whatever room or wine cooler) and the F temperature of the Kitchen or the place where the balls will spend their last hour(s). The converted C fields are there just for info. The Cellar temperature can be set from 50F to 77F and the Kitchen temperature from 65F to 100F.
Below these temperature fields, you have a field called Pre-oven where you can set the number of hours you foresee for the balls to gently warm to room temperature before baking. You can set this Pre-oven hours field from 0 to 4 hours.
The likely useful percentages of CY (at least for me) are sandwiched between two columns.
The left column shows the hours needed for maturation considering the Cellar temperature only.
The middle column (to the right of the CY percentages) shows the hours that the dough (in bulk and balls) will actually spend in the Cellar considering the time that the balls will spend in the Kitchen. These fields are the same as the left ones minus the offset. And the offset, that you can see below the Pre-oven hours that you have defined, is automatically calculated in regard with the Pre-oven hours that you have set.
The far right column shows the total number of hours that you have to foresee between the moment the dough is ready to rest and the moment you bake the first pizza.

In the screenshot sample, you have to set the Cellar temperature to 62F and the Kitchen temperature to 75F, just because it is the actual temperature in these places. And you have apparently decided that the balls will rest at room temperature for 2 hours before baking.
From there you can consider it two different ways.
Or you definitely want to use 0.100% of CY ; therefore the dough (bulk and balls) will spend 29 hours in the Cellar at 62F and then 2 hours in the Kitchen at 75F, for a total time of 31 hours.
Or you consider that the best schedule for you is to prepare the dough 22 hours ahead of baking ; therefore you will use a percentage of 0.150% of CY and the dough will spend 20 hours in the Cellar and 2 hours in the Kitchen.

The only three fields that are accessible are the two F temperatures and the red Pre-oven hours.
Once you have set these three fields you push/click the pizza-clock and all the rest is automatically calculated.
Easy peasy ;-)

Dont hesitate to share your comments, suggestions and wishes !
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: stzicuris on May 19, 2018, 11:53:52 PM
Hello guys first of all thks to craig for his tabl is really useful.

If i understood properly this table for room temp ferment is more efficient than for sold ferment, isnt it?
more data were available for the table right?, cause craig use room temperature ferment.right?
Even if i understood that it was only a starting point.
Thanks in advance for you fast reply.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on May 20, 2018, 06:43:28 AM
I'm not sure I understand what your asking?

The reason it's harder to model cold fermentation scenarios is because at refrigerator temperatures, the margins of error get huge. Even relatively large changes in time can result in small changes in total fermentation.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: stzicuris on May 20, 2018, 08:11:41 AM
I was wondering  which temperature range represented in the table are more trustfull.
I understsand now that the refrigerate temperature harder to predict properly.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on May 20, 2018, 12:52:08 PM
I was wondering  which temperature range represented in the table are more trustfull.
I understsand now that the refrigerate temperature harder to predict properly.

It's not that refrigeration temperature fermentations are hard to predict, actually it's quite easy. The difficulty is that the range of time that can work may be huge. Two people could make the same dough with the same amount of yeast and ferment it at the same temperature and have the time be more than 24 hours different. Maybe a lot more.

The table can only give you a single number - it's best guess from a statistical analysis of as much data as I could gather. Temperatures in the 60-80F range will be the most "accurate" because I have more data in that range and because the range of solutions is tighter. That being said, there are so many variables not controlled in the model, it's only intended to be a starting point and several iterations of testing and tweaking should be expected.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: vtsteve on May 20, 2018, 03:46:52 PM
It's been pretty close for me at 36-37F.  :)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: stzicuris on June 01, 2018, 04:19:09 AM
hello guys i found this from a pizzeria at Naples but the yeast use is really far from the predicted table why?

 "HOW TO MAKE THE REAL NEAPOLITAN PIZZA DOUGH according to the disciplinary of VPN "real pizza napoletana "
 
------------RECIPE.
10l. water room temperature
0.35 oz. fresh yeast
17oz. sea salt
37 pounds flour 00
------- MAKE DOUGH
1.Mix water and yeast add 10% of the flour, add the sea salt and let it melted with the mix for 5 minutes, add the rest of the flour mix everything for 20 minutes
2.Put it in two container or one for about 30 minutes with cover.
3.Make dough balls 9oz each
4. Let it fermented for 8-10 hours at room temperature 18C.
----------tips .
if you don't use it just put it in the fridge and when you are going to use it take it out 1 hour before, it will be good for 3-4 days in the fridge
enjoy. "

at this quantity of yest 0.05% the table predicted 47-50 hours but for the pizzeria was ready at 10hours.
I dont understand.
thx for your reply
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 01, 2018, 08:31:13 AM
hello guys i found this from a pizzeria at Naples but the yeast use is really far from the predicted table why?
"HOW TO MAKE THE REAL NEAPOLITAN PIZZA DOUGH according to the disciplinary of VPN "real pizza napoletana "
.
.
.

at this quantity of yest 0.05% the table predicted 47-50 hours but for the pizzeria was ready at 10hours.
I dont understand.
thx for your reply

It's the person who made that formula who doesn't understand. It won't work. First of all, it's not the recipe from the "disciplinary of VPN." I've lost count of how many recipes I've seen claiming to be the VPN recipe.  The actual VPN formula calls for ~0.17% CY and 6-8 hours fermentation at 25C which is perfectly in line with the table.

http://www.pizzanapoletana.org/public/pdf/disciplinare%202008%20UK.pdf
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32010R0097&from=EN
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: vtsteve on June 16, 2018, 10:38:06 AM
Never trust a formula that mixes liters, pounds and oz... it's pretty close to 10x the VPN that Craig posted, if you use 35g of yeast vs. .35 oz.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: hotsawce on August 14, 2018, 11:00:55 PM
Wanted to chime in on this chart -

I didn't use it when developing my dough recipe, but I use about 0.11% ADY for a 50lb bag of flour. This comes out to 25g. Most of the time, my room temp has been around 70 to 71 and it pretty much matches right up with the closest comparison (0.126%) at right around 6 hours.

This is a direct method, with no bulk (just a short rest,) cut scale and ball. I'm calling 6 hours from the time the dough is balled in trays to when it can be used (and we have used after 6 hours.)

That being said, the pies bake up pretty crisp and deeply caramel colored - and I prefer fridging the dough at that point and using the next day.

I think the gluten degrades a little bit as it sits cold, and I get a little more color variation. I wonder if there's a way to accomplish that at room temp?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on August 15, 2018, 09:07:45 AM
Wanted to chime in on this chart -

I didn't use it when developing my dough recipe, but I use about 0.11% ADY for a 50lb bag of flour. This comes out to 25g. Most of the time, my room temp has been around 70 to 71 and it pretty much matches right up with the closest comparison (0.126%) at right around 6 hours.

This is a direct method, with no bulk (just a short rest,) cut scale and ball. I'm calling 6 hours from the time the dough is balled in trays to when it can be used (and we have used after 6 hours.)

That being said, the pies bake up pretty crisp and deeply caramel colored - and I prefer fridging the dough at that point and using the next day.

I think the gluten degrades a little bit as it sits cold, and I get a little more color variation. I wonder if there's a way to accomplish that at room temp?

I'm not exactly sure what you're asking? Are you looking to find a yeast quantity that will let you do 18-24 hours at room temp? If so, I think that should be fairly straightforward to accomplish.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: hotsawce on August 15, 2018, 03:43:20 PM
Im just confirming the accuracy of the chart for fully fermented dough.

However, I think there is something else at play when using refrigeration that isnt accurately reflected in the chart what considering a fully fermented dough. I get changes in color and texture with a pause in the fridge I dont get at room temp - and I wonder if that is possible to accomplish at room temp.

Im no scientist but working with the dough daily I see the changes

I'm not exactly sure what you're asking? Are you looking to find a yeast quantity that will let you do 18-24 hours at room temp? If so, I think that should be fairly straightforward to accomplish.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Sebastianvettel on September 05, 2018, 10:52:50 AM
Great work for that prediction model. I just ordered a micro scale online and I am looking forward to see how those measurements translate into my real world pizza proofing, because I am only preparing dough for 2-3 pizzas at a time I only need a very small amount of yeast oftentimes under 1gram.

So far I relied on my intuition and a-not-so-good-kitchen-scale and that of course resulted in an overproofed dough a couple of times when I wasn't carefully watching it and checking in on it.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: amolapizza on September 12, 2018, 05:02:19 AM
A good trick is to disolve 1g of yeast in 99g of water.  Then if you need say 0.20g of yeast, you replace 20g of the water in your recipe with the yeast water.  Makes it a bit more accurate and easier to measure.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on September 12, 2018, 09:08:06 AM
A good trick is to disolve 1g of yeast in 99g of water.  Then if you need say 0.20g of yeast, you replace 20g of the water in your recipe with the yeast water.  Makes it a bit more accurate and easier to measure.

For this method, you really should have a scale with 0.1g precision, else go 10g in 990g. With only 1g precision, your 20g of solution could have anywhere from 0.1g to 0.3g.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: amolapizza on September 22, 2018, 06:27:11 AM
Yes, a more accurate scale helps for sure, personally I do use one that measures 0.1g.

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: dylandylan on October 07, 2018, 02:54:26 AM
Hey Craig, long time no pizza!

If you're still collecting data can confirm:  IDY .4%, 24hr at 63f produced good fermentation.  Hydration 62.5%.

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jackitup on October 07, 2018, 03:41:28 AM
Hey Craig, long time no pizza!

If you're still collecting data can confirm:  IDY .4%, 24hr at 63f produced good fermentation.  Hydration 62.5%.

Dylan, you still rule your pies......AWESOME!!!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: vincentoc13 on October 08, 2018, 11:56:26 AM
Hi Dylan - when you say 24hrs at 63%.  does that mean totall ball + bulk = 24hrs or straight to ball for 24hrs?

Thanks!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: dylandylan on October 08, 2018, 01:01:04 PM
24hrs total, approx 19 bulk and 5 balled.    Not suggesting that's the best way to do it, just working around time constraints in this case.

Hi Dylan - when you say 24hrs at 63%.  does that mean totall ball + bulk = 24hrs or straight to ball for 24hrs?

Thanks!

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Swiss Frank on October 12, 2018, 01:30:45 PM
I'm happy to take a stab at this and give you feedback.

I've made a pizza a week for 5 years but only now have decided to learn how to do it.  I've been using 2% yeast in 60-65% hydration dough that I usually give 2 days in the fridge.  But I don't really check it but have just randomly noticed it seems big enough after some small number of hours (which I never noted).  One reason I just joined this forum was to figure out how much yeast was actually necessary.

What do ADY, IDY, and CY mean?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Obsauced on October 12, 2018, 01:32:44 PM
I'm happy to take a stab at this and give you feedback.

I've made a pizza a week for 5 years but only now have decided to learn how to do it.  I've been using 2% yeast in 60-65% hydration dough that I usually give 2 days in the fridge.  But I don't really check it but have just randomly noticed it seems big enough after some small number of hours (which I never noted).  One reason I just joined this forum was to figure out how much yeast was actually necessary.

What do ADY, IDY, and CY mean?

ADY- Active Dry Yeast
IDY- Instant Dry Yeast
CY- Cake Yeast--Fresh Yeast--Levito di birra
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Pete-zza on October 12, 2018, 02:18:57 PM
What do ADY, IDY, and CY mean?
Swiss Frank,

See https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=20056.msg196875#msg196875.

Peter
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: icemanxp300 on October 16, 2018, 10:09:39 PM
This is likely the best spot for this information. A few months back I found out my fridge was not functioning as it should. My milk was spoiling too quickly. Then I was channel surfing and ran across a cooking show that mentioned the fridge temperature should be I believe they said 38 degrees.

I ended up doing a temp test by leaving a bottle of water in the fridge for awhile and the temp only read 42 degrees. I ended up buying a new fridge. Now when I CF my dough it does not rise nearly as much as it did in the 42 degree temp. I think the new temp is more like 36 actually I just checked and it gets down to 32.8 degrees where I put my dough. No wonder I don't get much rise in it.

So yes fridge temp. plays a key role in how much yeast reacts and how much the dough will rise. It is not something I personally gave any thought to.

I do 24 hr CF and was using 5g ADY .55%

As far as the results. My 42 degree temp seemed to allow the dough to ferment at least twice as much.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: MadMatt on October 21, 2018, 04:27:51 AM
This is likely the best spot for this information. A few months back I found out my fridge was not functioning as it should. My milk was spoiling too quickly. Then I was channel surfing and ran across a cooking show that mentioned the fridge temperature should be I believe they said 38 degrees.

I ended up doing a temp test by leaving a bottle of water in the fridge for awhile and the temp only read 42 degrees. I ended up buying a new fridge. Now when I CF my dough it does not rise nearly as much as it did in the 42 degree temp. I think the new temp is more like 36 actually I just checked and it gets down to 32.8 degrees where I put my dough. No wonder I don't get much rise in it.

So yes fridge temp. plays a key role in how much yeast reacts and how much the dough will rise. It is not something I personally gave any thought to.

I do 24 hr CF and was using 5g ADY .55%

As far as the results. My 42 degree temp seemed to allow the dough to ferment at least twice as much.


I don't think its possible to even get my fridge down to 38f  right now I have it set on 4 out of 5  and it's reading  about 40-41f   and this is in the bottom shelf  where meat is meant to be stored and thats colder than other areas.

Never had any food spoil,  in fact most things last lot longer than they should.


  I made a 3 day dough at 0.22%   IDY and it appeared to have risen in 40 or so hours rather than 72,  I put it in the compartment where veg and fruit is meant to go, which is reading a few degrees higher than where the meat goes.    It was probably like 6-7c which  according to the chart makes sense that the dough fermented that quickly.




Now I'm on 0.16% idy and I think that may be too much at my fridge temp.  ::)


Here in UK some manufacturers recommend fridge should read between 4-5c  or 39.2f   to  41f   a bit higher than US it seems. Guess I'll just have to adjust until I get it right.






Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Jersey Pie Boy on October 21, 2018, 07:18:30 AM
Right, it's just a matter of tweaking. Put the fridge at settings that let milk and meat last long and not spoil, and just adjust yeast levels as needed.


And it's often  better to guess a little low on yeast, since you can push it along later by leaving it at room temp, or higher as needed..a microwave where a container of water has just boiled is a good place to put some very sluggish dough; an oven preheated to ts lowest setting, then switched off is another. In both cases, though, keep an eye on the dough..it moves fast. A bread proofer is even better if one is available.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: lem865 on December 28, 2018, 12:07:23 PM
I just have one questions about the timing. I am a newbie so just trying to get my head around everything.

As mentioned on this thread the timing is relevant to when the ball is ready to bake. Is there some space after this before they are not bakeable or is this end of the line so to speak?

Thanks
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 28, 2018, 12:12:01 PM
Is there some space after this before they are not bakeable or is this end of the line so to speak?

The predicted time is best described as an average result. Some testing and tweaking may be necessary given your specific formula and workflow which will also have a big effect on how much time you will have to use the balls. For example, warmer/more yeast/faster ferments will have shorter window than cooler/less yeast/longer fermentation.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: lem865 on December 29, 2018, 06:08:12 AM
ok, Thanks for that Craig.

I am experimenting with some recipes using wet dough starters which are to be at room temp for 24-hours before a 48-hour cold ferment (this recipe is from a book and just says put in the fridge so I am assuming this is 4c). And I am just looking at comparing with the chart. Would this chart include the dough starters 24 hours at room temperature? I am a bit confused as more yeast is added at this point so would this further complicate things?

All help much appreciated.

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 29, 2018, 09:12:15 AM
ok, Thanks for that Craig.

I am experimenting with some recipes using wet dough starters which are to be at room temp for 24-hours before a 48-hour cold ferment (this recipe is from a book and just says put in the fridge so I am assuming this is 4c). And I am just looking at comparing with the chart. Would this chart include the dough starters 24 hours at room temperature? I am a bit confused as more yeast is added at this point so would this further complicate things?

All help much appreciated.

I don't think the table will work with preferments as in that recipe. All the data it's built on is direct method fermentation.  What are you trying to accomplish? That recipe has a huge window of usability.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: lem865 on December 29, 2018, 10:04:08 AM
To be honest, I am new to the whole thing and I am just trying to understand the process. I am a chef with a lot of experience in other areas but not with dough. I am planning to open a take-away NP pizza shop in the future so just trying to learn as much as possible.

One problem I have been having is that the dough has been sticking to the peel. I thought this may have been down to over-fermentaion or
under-working the gluten and this is why I have been asking about timing. I think this is actually also due to my sauce being too watery too as I have just been practising with no cheese and canned chopped tomatoes for some of the pizzas.

This forum is absolute gold for my situation either way:)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 29, 2018, 11:11:19 AM
Using a preferment is not common in Neapolitan pizza. Someone who strictly adheres to the VPN standard would say it's not Neapolitan pizza at all. I wouldn't necessarily go that far, but it's not what I think makes the best Neapolitan pizza. There are lots of way to get there from 8-12 hours at a warm room temp to 24-48 and a cooler room temp to 24+ in the fridge. The difference between them is yeast quantity and fermentation temperature. You need to experiment to see what works best for you.

As for stickiness, there could be several things including:

- the preferment which develops enzymes and dead yeast, both of which soften the dough
- the hydration, maybe too much water for the flour
- the flour itself, lower quality flour can result in sticky dough, AOTBE.
- overfermentation

It's unlikely that it's underdeveloped gluten; with 24h+ fermentation, the gluten will develop itself, even with no kneading.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: lem865 on December 29, 2018, 12:36:21 PM
Ah, ok what about a hot metal peel?

I just baked with the recipe I posted earlier and things improved hugely. The dough was sticking a lot less. I think the peel has been a factor in my previous attempts as well as my poor stretching skills.

The peel was heating up and then I would stretch a terrible pizza that is very thin in some places and they would seem to stick to the peel or the bench etc...

One thing I am worrying about too is how these pizzas will travel. I can imaging them getting soggy and/or cold in pizza boxes. Hopefully there is a solution in a dough recipe/oven temp somewhere.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on December 29, 2018, 01:17:06 PM
Ah, ok what about a hot metal peel?

I just baked with the recipe I posted earlier and things improved hugely. The dough was sticking a lot less. I think the peel has been a factor in my previous attempts as well as my poor stretching skills.

The peel was heating up and then I would stretch a terrible pizza that is very thin in some places and they would seem to stick to the peel or the bench etc...

One thing I am worrying about too is how these pizzas will travel. I can imaging them getting soggy and/or cold in pizza boxes. Hopefully there is a solution in a dough recipe/oven temp somewhere.

Yes, a hot peel is a problem. Unless you have long breaks between pies, you really need two peels - a launching peel, and a turning peel.

Neapolitan pizza doesn't travel particularly well as a pizza, however the way it's served in Naples as a street food, "a portafoglio," does.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: lem865 on December 29, 2018, 01:21:22 PM
Ok, lots of work for me to do then!

Thanks for the help:)
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: hammettjr on January 17, 2019, 10:06:18 PM
Here is the table pushed out to 1% IDY / 3% CY:

Craig, any chance you can extend the temp to 33F ?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on January 17, 2019, 11:48:32 PM
Craig, any chance you can extend the temp to 33F ?


Forever.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: hammettjr on January 18, 2019, 06:56:31 AM
Forever.

 :-D that explains alot. Once my regular fridge is fixed I should be using 37F, but I will have one last bake at this super cold temp
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: mux on February 10, 2019, 09:21:08 PM
Can someone explain to me how long to bulk ferment vs in balls?  I followed the chart for 24C and did a 18 hour bulk ferment, and then balled them up and left them again at 24C for another 6 hours. Needless to say, the dough did not actually rise a lot at all, when baked it was dense, indicating not enough fermentation. Did I do something fundamentally wrong?  The percent was about 0.01% using ADY (I am skeptical on such a low quantity).   I dissolved 1g in 100ml of water and used the appropriate amount of this slury in my dough.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: ARenko on February 25, 2019, 03:37:51 PM
Can someone explain to me how long to bulk ferment vs in balls?  I followed the chart for 24C and did a 18 hour bulk ferment, and then balled them up and left them again at 24C for another 6 hours. Needless to say, the dough did not actually rise a lot at all, when baked it was dense, indicating not enough fermentation. Did I do something fundamentally wrong?  The percent was about 0.01% using ADY (I am skeptical on such a low quantity).   I dissolved 1g in 100ml of water and used the appropriate amount of this slury in my dough.
You didn't ferment long enough.  Let's just say you're at 23.9C - interpolate and you'll get 35 hours for .01% ADY.

23.9C/ .008% ADY/ 39 hours
23.9C/ .013% ADY/ 29 hours

I'd highly recommend an accurate scale that can weigh .01g for the future.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: thowi on April 24, 2019, 09:56:29 AM
I have been wanting to incorporate this table into a baker percentage calculator for a while, finaly I got it done with some help . The form corolate data that are not on the table. Try it out, let me know if it works for you or if you have any recommendation to improve it.

http://www.mightypizzaoven.com/dough-recipe-creator/

Hey Bert, that link is broken now, but I believe https://www.mightypizzastone.com/2017/02/04/pizza-and-bread-dough-recipe-creator/ is a similar calculator?
In any case, would you mind sharing the formula that you came up with (you mentioned Lagrange correlation in another post), so we can just calculate the yeast amount ourselves?

Thanks!
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: faksimile on April 29, 2019, 07:23:04 AM
Hi,

Thanks so much for this.

I know that there are a few apps to calculate yeast % and dough developed but I am not sure how accurate they are. I would like to replicate the results of Craig using a simple regression setting if the collected data are available in a csv format.

Additionally, i was wondering if these calculations are also suitable for other baked good such as Pizza Romana or Bread. Many thanks


Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: thowi on April 29, 2019, 07:44:41 AM
Hi faksimile,

I extracted the table data that's on https://www.mightypizzastone.com/2017/02/04/pizza-and-bread-dough-recipe-creator/ into a spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yOLUHuvG4jionoQ7fP0f-uDO7JrXRwcf0DR7nBss2Pw/edit?usp=sharing
It might not be up to date though.

I didn't collect the underlying source data though, i.e. the actual time/temp/yeast numbers from users around the forum.

Would be cool if we could have an actual formula, not just a table, where I can plug in temp, time (maybe salt, hydration) and would get the proposed yeast %.

Cheers
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on April 29, 2019, 07:45:11 AM
Hi,

Thanks so much for this.

I know that there are a few apps to calculate yeast % and dough developed but I am not sure how accurate they are. I would like to replicate the results of Craig using a simple regression setting if the collected data are available in a csv format.

Additionally, i was wondering if these calculations are also suitable for other baked good such as Pizza Romana or Bread. Many thanks




It would be nice if there was a "simple" regression that could be done, but no such luck. Given the multitude of variables, many of which are non-obvious, the data can be wildly inconsistent on the surface. In some cases, it's the result of large margins of error provided by lower temperatures, in others the differences are near inexplicable as you will see if you read through this thread. That's where the non-obvious, situation-unique, variables come in. Throughout this forum, you can find 100's if not 1000's of examples of people doing the "same" thing and getting very different results.  Some of the original data used is here: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg394399#msg394399 I'm sure you'll see what I mean.

The table is the result of building a model (discussed in the early posts) and then wiggle fitting it to the data that has been cleaned and normalized to the extent of my guessing and estimating ability. As for other tools out there, from what I've seen, some are close enough that I doubt it's a coincidence. Others give significantly different answers. At the end of the day, this was simply intended to be a tool to give and best guess starting point - not a definitive answer.

With respect to bread, that's a completely different animal with multiple rises, etc.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: thowi on April 30, 2019, 04:13:21 PM
Craig, thanks for the link to the source data!

I must say I really admire your work and search for perfection.
You make amazing looking pies and are of great help to this forum!

I copied the linked data into this spreadsheet, in case somebody wants to play with it:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yOLUHuvG4jionoQ7fP0f-uDO7JrXRwcf0DR7nBss2Pw/edit?usp=sharing
I used 40F for fridge/cooler unless stated otherwise.
Anyone can comment on the spreadsheet to propose any additions/changes.

Cheers
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pizzainthe6ix on June 12, 2019, 11:57:29 AM
Hi Craig,
Are you still looking for feedback?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 12, 2019, 02:18:56 PM
Hi Craig,
Are you still looking for feedback?

Not for the model, but it's welcome here. Lost of folks come to this thread for examples.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pizzainthe6ix on June 12, 2019, 02:48:14 PM
Not for the model, but it's welcome here. Lost of folks come to this thread for examples.
Thanks!

Proofing at 20C/45% Humidity for 48hrs (24 + 24) using .050% CY with a final dough temp of 75F. 

I have been following the model pretty closely and I have found the bulk dough to be slightly over fermented (I could not tell as I do not know what to look for but Tom said it was) and the balled dough (after being degassed) seemed to be slightly over proofed (touching the top felt like there was a layer of air) and should have put in the fridge around 34-36hrs.  Looking at the 48hr specific chart, I should have gone with .034% so I am going to give that a shot next time.



Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: thowi on June 12, 2019, 05:30:50 PM
Proofing at 20C/45% Humidity for 48hrs (24 + 24) using .050% CY with a final dough temp of 75F. 
[..] slightly over fermented [..]

Note that your dough is warmer than your fermentation temp. That can also cause some over-fermentation.
Have you tried starting with a dough temp closer to the fermentation temp (using cold water)?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pizzainthe6ix on June 12, 2019, 06:17:14 PM
Note that your dough is warmer than your fermentation temp. That can also cause some over-fermentation.
Have you tried starting with a dough temp closer to the fermentation temp (using cold water)?
No, I have not.  I was under the impression Desired Dough Temperature (DDT) is between 75F-78F regardless of the fermentation temperature, which is why people employ cross-stacking and other strategies to get the dough down to proofing temperature sooner
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: thowi on June 13, 2019, 07:24:59 AM
No, I have not.  I was under the impression Desired Dough Temperature (DDT) is between 75F-78F regardless of the fermentation temperature, which is why people employ cross-stacking and other strategies to get the dough down to proofing temperature sooner

Not an expert, but why would I want a DDT different (higher) than fermentation temp?
Does it not introduce more uncertainty, i.e. the dough will proof faster in the beginning and slow down until it reaches a lower room temp?
I always try DDT = fermentation temp so I have the same temp for the entire proof.
I really don't know what's better though.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pizzainthe6ix on June 13, 2019, 08:39:36 AM
Not an expert, but why would I want a DDT different (higher) than fermentation temp?
Does it not introduce more uncertainty, i.e. the dough will proof faster in the beginning and slow down until it reaches a lower room temp?
I always try DDT = fermentation temp so I have the same temp for the entire proof.
I really don't know what's better though.
From my reading having a DDT in this range will provide better texture, better gluten development and more flavour will develop around this temperature.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 13, 2019, 09:15:13 AM
From my reading having a DDT in this range will provide better texture, better gluten development and more flavour will develop around this temperature.

That may be more related to a typical bread dough than a long-fermented pizza dough.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pizzainthe6ix on June 13, 2019, 09:23:27 AM
That may be more related to a typical bread dough than a long-fermented pizza dough.
The only exception I have read about is Sourdough's that are put into a considerably colder retarder apparatus.  I have also seen Tom reference this temperature quite often, many others on the forum and all of my books seem to reference it as well, regardless of fermentation times.

Should I be aiming for a colder finished dough temp if I am fermenting at 65F-70F?  It takes a solid 3-4hrs to drop the temperature.

I have included pictures of my last batch. No clue what over fermented bulk dough looks like (had tons of air that I degassed).  As I mentioned, I only feel the balled dough was because of that large air pocket/bubble on the tops

Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 13, 2019, 11:13:23 AM
I don't know. I almost never look at the dough temp largely because I rarely mix it long enough to elevate the temp much. I also never CF SD.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pizzainthe6ix on June 13, 2019, 11:37:38 AM
I don't know. I almost never look at the dough temp largely because I rarely mix it long enough to elevate the temp much. I also never CF SD.
I have found that as noted above...my dough temp barely rises.  What temperature water are you using?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 13, 2019, 11:54:21 AM
I have found that as noted above...my dough temp barely rises.  What temperature water are you using?

When using IDY, I use water straight from the tap which is probably low-mid 70's.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pizzainthe6ix on June 13, 2019, 11:57:47 AM
When using IDY, I use water straight from the tap which is probably low-mid 70's.
Ok.  I would assume your dough is around the 68-75F range.

If the tap is on cold, and I just turn the tap on, the water is around 50F....it warms up slightly depending on how long I let it run. If I crank it up all the way the water can reach ~110F after a few minutes.

If you are using Ischia, which you normally do, what temperature?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: parallei on June 13, 2019, 12:12:31 PM
If the tap is on cold, and I just turn the tap on, the water is around 50F....it warms up slightly depending on how long I let it run. If I crank it up all the way the water can reach ~110F after a few minutes.

That doesn't seem right.  If you just have the cold water facuet position open, the cold water temp should drop the longer you run it.  When you start out running the cold water you'll get water from the smaller lines in the house, then water from the buried main in the street will reach your faucet.  I doubt the water in the buried street main is at 110F.  Perhaps your faucet is inadvertently mixing hot and cold water when you put it in a certain position.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 13, 2019, 12:22:45 PM
If you are using Ischia, which you normally do, what temperature?

Ice water. First I dissolve in the salt which takes a while, then I violently whisk in the culture.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: Heikjo on June 13, 2019, 12:23:56 PM
Ice water. First I dissolve in the salt which takes a while, then I violently whisk in the culture.
Why ice water?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 13, 2019, 12:30:14 PM
Why ice water?

I don't remember exactly why I started doing it that way. Been doing it for as long as I can remember. I was probably trying to end up with a dough that was near the low-60's fermentation temp.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pizzainthe6ix on June 13, 2019, 12:36:36 PM
That doesn't seem right.  If you just have the cold water facuet position open, the cold water temp should drop the longer you run it.  When you start out running the cold water you'll get water from the smaller lines in the house, then water from the buried main in the street will reach your faucet.  I doubt the water in the buried street main is at 110F.  Perhaps your faucet is inadvertently mixing hot and cold water when you put it in a certain position.
Potentially.  Neither here or there, I just adjust it to what I want my final dough temp to be
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pizzainthe6ix on June 13, 2019, 12:37:28 PM
I don't remember exactly why I started doing it that way. Been doing it for as long as I can remember. I was probably trying to end up with a dough that was near the low-60's fermentation temp.
Maybe this way it would end up lower than the temperature you are proofing at?  Why do you sue 7XF with IDY?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 13, 2019, 02:02:52 PM
Why do you sue 7XF with IDY?

Because it's easier.
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: pizzainthe6ix on June 18, 2019, 02:37:57 PM
Does anyone know if I can use this for bagels? It seems to work out but I was curious if anyone else had tried it.

I found what seems to be a nice recipe, but I want to adapt with a poolish, longer ferment and CY.

Some recipes below:
A King Arthur Recipe calls for 1.6% ADY for a 2hr RT ferment
Another recipe calls for a 2hr RT bulk ferment and another 8-12hr bulk cold ferment using .36% IDY (they say dry instant yeast)

I have Ken Forkish's bread book that makes a white bread with a Poolish that uses .34% of IDY (where 11% is in the Poolish, the rest in final dough).  This is a 3hr RT bulk ferment, 1hr RT when shaped.

The Ken Forkish recipe and the others are pretty similar RT fermentations so does putting it in the fridge really stop the fermentation 100% where it can take the 8-12hrs?
Title: Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
Post by: TXCraig1 on June 19, 2019, 12:06:51 PM
I don't think this would be a good reference for bread which usually is a very different fermentation workflow. I think as a general rule, bread would need more yeast for a similar time ready-to-bake because of the punch downs and multiple rises.