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Author Topic: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results  (Read 167148 times)

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Offline faksimile

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #460 on: April 29, 2019, 07:23:04 AM »
Hi,

Thanks so much for this.

I know that there are a few apps to calculate yeast % and dough developed but I am not sure how accurate they are. I would like to replicate the results of Craig using a simple regression setting if the collected data are available in a csv format.

Additionally, i was wondering if these calculations are also suitable for other baked good such as Pizza Romana or Bread. Many thanks



Offline thowi

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #461 on: April 29, 2019, 07:44:41 AM »
Hi faksimile,

I extracted the table data that's on https://www.mightypizzastone.com/2017/02/04/pizza-and-bread-dough-recipe-creator/ into a spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yOLUHuvG4jionoQ7fP0f-uDO7JrXRwcf0DR7nBss2Pw/edit?usp=sharing
It might not be up to date though.

I didn't collect the underlying source data though, i.e. the actual time/temp/yeast numbers from users around the forum.

Would be cool if we could have an actual formula, not just a table, where I can plug in temp, time (maybe salt, hydration) and would get the proposed yeast %.

Cheers

Offline TXCraig1

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #462 on: April 29, 2019, 07:45:11 AM »
Hi,

Thanks so much for this.

I know that there are a few apps to calculate yeast % and dough developed but I am not sure how accurate they are. I would like to replicate the results of Craig using a simple regression setting if the collected data are available in a csv format.

Additionally, i was wondering if these calculations are also suitable for other baked good such as Pizza Romana or Bread. Many thanks




It would be nice if there was a "simple" regression that could be done, but no such luck. Given the multitude of variables, many of which are non-obvious, the data can be wildly inconsistent on the surface. In some cases, it's the result of large margins of error provided by lower temperatures, in others the differences are near inexplicable as you will see if you read through this thread. That's where the non-obvious, situation-unique, variables come in. Throughout this forum, you can find 100's if not 1000's of examples of people doing the "same" thing and getting very different results.  Some of the original data used is here: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg394399#msg394399 I'm sure you'll see what I mean.

The table is the result of building a model (discussed in the early posts) and then wiggle fitting it to the data that has been cleaned and normalized to the extent of my guessing and estimating ability. As for other tools out there, from what I've seen, some are close enough that I doubt it's a coincidence. Others give significantly different answers. At the end of the day, this was simply intended to be a tool to give and best guess starting point - not a definitive answer.

With respect to bread, that's a completely different animal with multiple rises, etc.
"We make great pizza, with sourdough when we can, baker's yeast when we must, but always great pizza."  
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Offline thowi

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Re: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results
« Reply #463 on: April 30, 2019, 04:13:21 PM »
Craig, thanks for the link to the source data!

I must say I really admire your work and search for perfection.
You make amazing looking pies and are of great help to this forum!

I copied the linked data into this spreadsheet, in case somebody wants to play with it:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yOLUHuvG4jionoQ7fP0f-uDO7JrXRwcf0DR7nBss2Pw/edit?usp=sharing
I used 40F for fridge/cooler unless stated otherwise.
Anyone can comment on the spreadsheet to propose any additions/changes.

Cheers

Offline pizzainthe6ix

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Hi Craig,
Are you still looking for feedback?

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Offline TXCraig1

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Hi Craig,
Are you still looking for feedback?

Not for the model, but it's welcome here. Lost of folks come to this thread for examples.
"We make great pizza, with sourdough when we can, baker's yeast when we must, but always great pizza."  
Craig's Neapolitan Garage

Offline pizzainthe6ix

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Not for the model, but it's welcome here. Lost of folks come to this thread for examples.
Thanks!

Proofing at 20C/45% Humidity for 48hrs (24 + 24) using .050% CY with a final dough temp of 75F. 

I have been following the model pretty closely and I have found the bulk dough to be slightly over fermented (I could not tell as I do not know what to look for but Tom said it was) and the balled dough (after being degassed) seemed to be slightly over proofed (touching the top felt like there was a layer of air) and should have put in the fridge around 34-36hrs.  Looking at the 48hr specific chart, I should have gone with .034% so I am going to give that a shot next time.




Offline thowi

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Proofing at 20C/45% Humidity for 48hrs (24 + 24) using .050% CY with a final dough temp of 75F. 
[..] slightly over fermented [..]

Note that your dough is warmer than your fermentation temp. That can also cause some over-fermentation.
Have you tried starting with a dough temp closer to the fermentation temp (using cold water)?

Offline pizzainthe6ix

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Note that your dough is warmer than your fermentation temp. That can also cause some over-fermentation.
Have you tried starting with a dough temp closer to the fermentation temp (using cold water)?
No, I have not.  I was under the impression Desired Dough Temperature (DDT) is between 75F-78F regardless of the fermentation temperature, which is why people employ cross-stacking and other strategies to get the dough down to proofing temperature sooner
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 06:19:55 PM by pizzainthe6ix »

Offline thowi

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No, I have not.  I was under the impression Desired Dough Temperature (DDT) is between 75F-78F regardless of the fermentation temperature, which is why people employ cross-stacking and other strategies to get the dough down to proofing temperature sooner

Not an expert, but why would I want a DDT different (higher) than fermentation temp?
Does it not introduce more uncertainty, i.e. the dough will proof faster in the beginning and slow down until it reaches a lower room temp?
I always try DDT = fermentation temp so I have the same temp for the entire proof.
I really don't know what's better though.

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Offline pizzainthe6ix

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Not an expert, but why would I want a DDT different (higher) than fermentation temp?
Does it not introduce more uncertainty, i.e. the dough will proof faster in the beginning and slow down until it reaches a lower room temp?
I always try DDT = fermentation temp so I have the same temp for the entire proof.
I really don't know what's better though.
From my reading having a DDT in this range will provide better texture, better gluten development and more flavour will develop around this temperature.

Offline TXCraig1

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From my reading having a DDT in this range will provide better texture, better gluten development and more flavour will develop around this temperature.

That may be more related to a typical bread dough than a long-fermented pizza dough.
"We make great pizza, with sourdough when we can, baker's yeast when we must, but always great pizza."  
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Offline pizzainthe6ix

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That may be more related to a typical bread dough than a long-fermented pizza dough.
The only exception I have read about is Sourdough's that are put into a considerably colder retarder apparatus.  I have also seen Tom reference this temperature quite often, many others on the forum and all of my books seem to reference it as well, regardless of fermentation times.

Should I be aiming for a colder finished dough temp if I am fermenting at 65F-70F?  It takes a solid 3-4hrs to drop the temperature.

I have included pictures of my last batch. No clue what over fermented bulk dough looks like (had tons of air that I degassed).  As I mentioned, I only feel the balled dough was because of that large air pocket/bubble on the tops

« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 03:39:00 PM by Pete-zza »

Offline TXCraig1

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I don't know. I almost never look at the dough temp largely because I rarely mix it long enough to elevate the temp much. I also never CF SD.
"We make great pizza, with sourdough when we can, baker's yeast when we must, but always great pizza."  
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Offline pizzainthe6ix

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I don't know. I almost never look at the dough temp largely because I rarely mix it long enough to elevate the temp much. I also never CF SD.
I have found that as noted above...my dough temp barely rises.  What temperature water are you using?

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Offline TXCraig1

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I have found that as noted above...my dough temp barely rises.  What temperature water are you using?

When using IDY, I use water straight from the tap which is probably low-mid 70's.
"We make great pizza, with sourdough when we can, baker's yeast when we must, but always great pizza."  
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Offline pizzainthe6ix

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When using IDY, I use water straight from the tap which is probably low-mid 70's.
Ok.  I would assume your dough is around the 68-75F range.

If the tap is on cold, and I just turn the tap on, the water is around 50F....it warms up slightly depending on how long I let it run. If I crank it up all the way the water can reach ~110F after a few minutes.

If you are using Ischia, which you normally do, what temperature?
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 12:00:20 PM by pizzainthe6ix »

Offline parallei

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If the tap is on cold, and I just turn the tap on, the water is around 50F....it warms up slightly depending on how long I let it run. If I crank it up all the way the water can reach ~110F after a few minutes.

That doesn't seem right.  If you just have the cold water facuet position open, the cold water temp should drop the longer you run it.  When you start out running the cold water you'll get water from the smaller lines in the house, then water from the buried main in the street will reach your faucet.  I doubt the water in the buried street main is at 110F.  Perhaps your faucet is inadvertently mixing hot and cold water when you put it in a certain position.

Offline TXCraig1

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If you are using Ischia, which you normally do, what temperature?

Ice water. First I dissolve in the salt which takes a while, then I violently whisk in the culture.
"We make great pizza, with sourdough when we can, baker's yeast when we must, but always great pizza."  
Craig's Neapolitan Garage

Offline Heikjo

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Ice water. First I dissolve in the salt which takes a while, then I violently whisk in the culture.
Why ice water?
-Heine. Mostly Neapolitan sourdough pizzas in an electric Effeuno P134H.

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