Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results

[MUAATH]

Excellent

[parallei]

This dough was 64% HR, 2.5% Salt, 100% Gold Medal Organic AP (not malted), and 0.035% IDY.  The IDY was out of brand new 1lb package of SAF Red.  The photo is after 9 hours @ about 60F and 18 hrs @ about 70F.

I should add that this appears to be about spot on.


 

[jsperk]

Tried this formula using the prediction model. Any opinions if I should change anything?
I let sit on counter for 20 hours and my house thermostat reads 70 degrees.

flour 100%
Water 60%
IDY 0.032
Salt 2.5
TF 0.105

[Minolta Rokkor]

I have 6 day old dough in the fridge, I'll see how it looks, and i'll bake it today. And i'll post pics.

[Minolta Rokkor]

Having done a few 48 hour room Temp ferments. They taste amazing.
However, I'll need a wine cooler for consistency.

[Minolta Rokkor]

Ok, I just purchased a wine cooler and a 20g scale, now i'll be ready. Tuesday I'll start.

[Minolta Rokkor]

No, if you start needing 121 hours at 36F and ferment the dough to the 0.26% IDY column, you still need 73 hours which means you have been fermenting for 121-73=48 hours. From there if you finish at 64F, you only need 7 more hours making only 55 total, not the 73 you need.

Remember that (theoretically) every time-temp combination in a given column takes you to a dough that is ready to use, so your 0.13% IDY dough should be ready to use in 121 hours at 36F (green circle) or 11 hours at 64F (pink circle) or any other time-temp combination in that column.

The simplest way to get to 73 hours, assuming you could easily control temperature, would be to just slide down the column until you find something close to 73 hours - ferment at ~41F (red circle), but that probably not a realistic solution for most folks.

Let's say your only temperature choices are 36F and 64F. You have to find a combination of (a) time at 64F and (b) remaining time at 36F that equals (or is close to) 73 hours or vice versa. That's a little easier said than done.

So let's say you mixed your dough and as you were about to put it into the fridge, your wife comes in and says "I hate to tell you this, but you need to bake in 73 hours - not 121 like I told you last night. All you have to work with is the fridge at 36F and the counter at 64F. What do you do? We have to find some combination of time at 36F that when added to the remaining time needed at 64F totals to ~73 hours. You have to work in the blue boxes.

Looking at the pattern across the 36F row, you see that if we go all the way to the right, we still have a dough that needs 62 hours at 36F. To get to that point, we have fermented 121 – 62 = 59 hours. If we drop down the column to the 64F row, we see that we need another 6 hours at 64F. 59 + 6 = 65 hours total; not long enough.

You can see that the 36F row drops by about 10 hours per column over at the right side, so you could guess the next column would be about 52 hours. 121 - 52 = 69 hours at 36F. Likewise, you can guess that the next column off the chart to the right on the 64F row is probably about 5 hours. 69 + 5 = 74 hours, so 69 hours at 36F + another 5 at 64 is pretty close to the 73 hour goal.

You could work it the other way too, doing the first step at 64F. In this case, the table tells us we need 11 hours at 64F. Let's say we do 4 hours at 64F. We would have 7 left at 64F. Slide across the 64F row to 7 hours (there are 2 of them) and then slide up the columns to the 36F row, and you can see that we would need somewhere between 80 and 73 additional hours at 36F. Add that to the 4 hours we did at 64F, and we see that we are between 84 and 77 total hours. A bit too long.

If we do 5 hours at 64F (on the 64F slide right from 11 to 6 hours), the table tells us we would need 62 hours at 36F which is 68 hours total. A bit too short, so the answer is somewhere between 4 and 5 hours at 64F which leaves about 67 hours at 36F for a total of about 72 hours total.

Remember just as the chart was only intended to help you find a starting point with the expectation that some experimenting and tweaking would be necessary, it can't be expected to deliver hour-resolution accuracy for this sort of thing either. I do think it's better than a wild ass guess, but you will need to watch it for the last 8-12 hours and adjust the temperature as necessary if things are progressing faster or slower than desired.

Example 1 below is 36F first. Example 2 below is 64F first.

So wait, how would I do 65*F 48 hour ferment ?

This math is killing me.

[oronzous]

It reminds me of the logarithmic tables from high school.

Anyway, if your temperatures are somewhat stable, math can be simple.
Example: 
My fridge is 38F, my RT is 77F almost all year round. 

Looking at the table, it seems that 24 hours at 38F are roughly equivalent to 1 hour RT (values in row 38F are between 23 and 25 times the corresponding values in row 77F)

Hence, I only look at the 77F row, select the hours it will be RT, and then add 1 hour if it will be 24h in the fridge, 2h if 48h, and so on.
What if I need to postpone the party for the next day? That means the dough will stay 24 additional hours at 38, and therefore it will need one less hour at 77F.

_____________________

If I had a cooler at 65F, checking the table and dividing the values in row 65F by those in row 77F, i realize that 2.6 hours 65F are roughly equivalent to 1 hour at 77F. 

[Cotto]

These charts look very helpful. It looks like I've been going way beyond the time these charts say the dough is ready. I have a lot to learn in this area.

I've been using 0.1% IDY in a 34 degree fridge for a shade under 72 hours. Sometimes I'll get an air bubble in the dough, occasionally quite large. I've been assuming the dough wasn't overproofed until that bubble collapsed on its own, but it sounds like it may be way before that? What qualities should I expect to be different between a properly proofed dough and one well beyond that time but not to the point of "collapsing"?

[TXCraig1]

These charts look very helpful. It looks like I've been going way beyond the time these charts say the dough is ready. I have a lot to learn in this area.

When it comes to cold fermenting in the fridge, the chart give a discrete answer for what is actually pretty large range. This and the SD charts should be looked at as a starting point for tweaking rather than a be-all-end-all.

[blaise]

Hi Craig,

I know that you already explained it as clearly as possible, but it's still a bit difficult for my understanding 
May I expose my case ?
I make a dough with a CY of 0,100%.
The cellar temp is 56°F, which demands for a 54h ferment.
The room temp is 70°F, which demands for a 19h ferment.
I decide to finish the dough at RT for 4h, which is 19h x 0,21.
I think that I should then let the dough first in the cellar for 54h - (54h x 0,21) = 42h 40min.

Is this correct ?

Blaise

[TXCraig1]

Hi Craig,

I know that you already explained it as clearly as possible, but it's still a bit difficult for my understanding 
May I expose my case ?
I make a dough with a CY of 0,100%.
The cellar temp is 56°F, which demands for a 54h ferment.
The room temp is 70°F, which demands for a 19h ferment.
I decide to finish the dough at RT for 4h, which is 19h x 0,21.
I think that I should then let the dough first in the cellar for 54h - (54h x 0,21) = 42h 40min.

Is this correct ?

Blaise

No. You read the time at 56F and 70F correctly, but the method you used to get to the time at 56F isn't how the table works. The way the table works is very simple. In your case, you want 4 hours at 70 to finish, so you start there (green circle). Go up the column to the 56F row and note the time = 13 hours (blue circle) then slide over to the left until you reach the 0.100%CY column and note the time = 54 hours (red circle). The time at 56F is the difference between the two times 54 hours - 13 hours = 41 hours @ 56F.

That all being said, it's just designed to give you a starting point. There are lots of uncontrolled variables, and you may find that you need to tweak the time and/or yeast quantity. Keep an eye on it starting about 12 hours before you intend to use it so that you can make corrections if things are not progressing as they need to be. Small temperature corrections earlier are much better than big corrections later.

[blaise]

Got it now !
Thanks a lot 

[abrown221]

I've read this thread like 4 times now.  Extremely helpful, but I have a few points I am still lost on. 

I usually do no knead dough.  Is this data indicating when my no knead is at its ideal stage for shaping and proofing?

If I am doing no knead dough, should include the time spent in bulk and the time spent in balls as total fermentation time? For example, if i go for a 23hr with .04% IDY, should I do 20 hour bulk and 3 hour ball?

Is it almost always better to try for a longer fermentation time? If I have 24 hours for fermentation, should I do it all at RT and just lower my yeast percent? Or is it better to do 12 hours RT and 12 hours CF?

Unrelated: If I am doing no knead, should be doing stretch and folds prior to the dividing and shaping?

Thanks for any help in advance!

[TXCraig1]

I've read this thread like 4 times now.  Extremely helpful, but I have a few points I am still lost on. 

I usually do no knead dough.  Is this data indicating when my no knead is at its ideal stage for shaping and proofing?

If I am doing no knead dough, should include the time spent in bulk and the time spent in balls as total fermentation time? For example, if i go for a 23hr with .04% IDY, should I do 20 hour bulk and 3 hour ball?

Is it almost always better to try for a longer fermentation time? If I have 24 hours for fermentation, should I do it all at RT and just lower my yeast percent? Or is it better to do 12 hours RT and 12 hours CF?

Unrelated: If I am doing no knead, should be doing stretch and folds prior to the dividing and shaping?

Thanks for any help in advance!

The table attempts to consolidate a lot of assumptions and give you a reasonable starting point. I would treat a no-knead dough pretty much the same as any other as far as the table goes. With any dough, some testing and tweaking is probably going to be necessary.

The fermentation temp question doesn't have a simple answer and is way beyond the scope of this thread. My thoughts on the subject are here: http://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=41039.0

[Sequioa]

Here is the revised model. I think this will get you to a pretty good starting point with most formulations.

Please let me know your results.

  yeast model idy

[Jersey Pie Boy]

Craig (or others),


Is there a chart that can be used with higher amounts of yeast while still at low temperatures. For example, is there a way to estimate say .5 or even higher percent in the low-mid 30'sF range  I think I rememember a chart that covered that  , but I may not be remembering correctly. Thanks

[TXCraig1]

Craig (or others),


Is there a chart that can be used with higher amounts of yeast while still at low temperatures. For example, is there a way to estimate say .5 or even higher percent in the low-mid 30'sF range  I think I rememember a chart that covered that  , but I may not be remembering correctly. Thanks

I don't think I ever posted one. Here is an extension of the latest table pushed out to DEFCON1 quantities of yeast. 0 hours would mean something less than an hour.

[Jersey Pie Boy]

That's great, thanks Craig...that helps a lot!
 

[carl333]

Funny. An emergency dough in an hour. 1 never knows....