Author Topic: Baker's yeast quantity prediction model - please compare to your results (Read 181842 times)

TXCraig1 · « **Reply #400 on:** January 10, 2018, 09:57:09 AM »

Quote from: bifi85 on January 04, 2018, 06:57:05 PM

Are the numbers from August 2013 still correct? Do you have a spread sheet aka Yeast Calculator (even so it is a rule-of-thumb estimate, a very good one)?

I want to focus more on °C and CY in the first place. 48h rise on for me possible and exact °C-values.

No, and the structure of the model has also changed a bit since that post.

Jackitup · « **Reply #401 on:** January 10, 2018, 12:34:39 PM »

As always, great job Craig! Thanks for the time you put into this!!!

norcoscia · « **Reply #402 on:** January 10, 2018, 01:14:27 PM »

Yes, great chart to establish very reasonable starting values when determining fermentation timing. Thanks so much for the work and generosity by sharing your efforts!

It would be cool if this could somehow be used in the new dough calculator to allow time and temp to be part of the planning process (estimate when the dough would be ready to cook / use).

Every time I look at this chart I try to imagine a way to visualize the varying usability window for any cell in the sheet. I can intuitively see that window (bubble) growing as you move from bottom of the chart to top and from right to left but I'm unable to figure out the best math (and charting mechanism) to actually visualize this bubble of usability / uncertainty.

It would be cool to somehow see this on a third axis by possibly graphing the differences between adjacent cells, but everything I try to work it out as a thought experiment it just gives me a headache - maybe someone with better math credentials (like Mitch) can solve it

bifi85 · « **Reply #403 on:** January 11, 2018, 06:37:47 PM »

TXCraig1, do you have a chart that focus on 48 h timings? Would be really great. For every temperature mark (59 °F, 60 °F, etc.) the yeast % (0,0000) for a 48 h rising.

the1mu · « **Reply #404 on:** January 11, 2018, 07:04:49 PM »

Quote from: bifi85 on January 11, 2018, 06:37:47 PM

TXCraig1, do you have a chart that focus on 48 h timings? Would be really great. For every temperature mark (59 °F, 60 °F, etc.) the yeast % (0,0000) for a 48 h rising.

The chart is meant as a starting point. It’s not going to be exact because their aren other at play as well.

You could go through and make your own grabbing all values say in a 4 hour window (46-50hrs). Then just list those values and you would have something close to what you are asking for. Then experiment and take notes.

ARenko · « **Reply #405 on:** January 12, 2018, 10:04:36 AM »

Thanks for the updated chart Craig - it now includes the yeast amount for the recipe I've been learning on.

Any chance a moderator can update the original post to have the latest chart whenever Craig updates it? Took me a while to find the latest last time I was looking.

TXCraig1 · « **Reply #406 on:** January 12, 2018, 10:22:16 AM »

Quote from: bifi85 on January 11, 2018, 06:37:47 PM

TXCraig1, do you have a chart that focus on 48 h timings? Would be really great. For every temperature mark (59 °F, 60 °F, etc.) the yeast % (0,0000) for a 48 h rising.

Here you go:

bifi85 · « **Reply #407 on:** January 13, 2018, 10:47:39 AM »

Thank you!

bt3100fs · « **Reply #408 on:** January 25, 2018, 02:56:31 PM »

This and the sourdough prediction models are very interesting.

I am trying to reconcile Baking Steel's 72-hour pizza dough (http://www.bakingsteel.com/blog/72-hour-pizza-dough) with this model. I'm probably missing something really stupid. Apologies in advance....

It calls for 1 gram ADY for 500 grams bread flour for a 24 hour room temperature rise, followed by 48 to 96 hours CF. 1 gram ADY to 500 grams BF is 0.2% ADY. According to the model, the dough would be ready to go at about 5 hours at room temp. Yet, the recipe calls for another 19 hours at room temp and 48+ hours CF.

TXCraig1 · « **Reply #409 on:** January 25, 2018, 03:13:31 PM »

0.2% is a lot of yeast for a 24 hour RT ferment. It's going to be a well fermented dough. If it's only 2X after 24 hours, my guess is that it's peaked well above that and fallen back some.

Heikjo · « **Reply #410 on:** January 31, 2018, 04:02:45 PM »

Incredible work, Craig! This is a fantastic tool for anyone making pizzas in here. I love the thoroughness and effort put in to make pizza making more reliable and easier to adjust, without having to do large amounts of experiments each.

I've read a few pages and skimmed a few others in here, but yet to find answers to a few questions. One answer I found in your thread on fermentation: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=41039.msg504234#msg504234 where you mentioned using 76-77F for doughs with IDY. What amounts of IDY do you use when making doughs? Have you (or anyone else in here) found thresholds where the dough starts tasting too much yeast or the dough isn't developed as you'd want it to be? Are there noticeable differences to 12 hour, 24 hour, 48 hour RT, of course using the corresponding amounts of yeast.

For instance when using ambient temp of 76-77F, how do you decide on the amount of yeast? The table gives you options for how long it's supposed to be fermenting, but do you have any favorite amounts or times? I'm very flexible when it comes to the fermentation times, so I can pretty much choose from across a large part of the table.

Btw. Do you share your spreadsheet? Would be nice to have one I can customize myself.

joe1515 · « **Reply #411 on:** April 23, 2018, 10:55:22 AM »

OK, so I'm confused (granted it doesn't take much

) about the proper amount of CY I should be using per 1,000 grams of flour. Most information I read say's to use about 1 gram of CY per 1,000 grams of flour for Neapolitan style pizza.

Based on the prediction model chart assuming 80 fermentation hours at 37 °F, I should be using 6 grams of CY assuming 0.600%.

What am I missing, am I using the prediction model correctly? Is my calculation wrong?

Thanks,

Joe

vtsteve · « **Reply #412 on:** April 23, 2018, 11:40:27 AM »

"Most Neapolitan" isn't using cold fermentation (or 80 hours)? Can you cite a specific formula that you're comparing against?

joe1515 · « **Reply #413 on:** April 23, 2018, 11:46:13 AM »

Quote from: vtsteve on April 23, 2018, 11:40:27 AM

"Most Neapolitan" isn't using cold fermentation (or 80 hours)? Can you cite a specific formula that you're comparing against?

Yes that's true about the cold fermentation they are mostly using room temparature. Enzo Coccia and a lot of blogs and facebook forums that I am apart of, to name a few.

One of my major questions is; am I calculating the prediction model correctly?

Thanks!

Heikjo · « **Reply #414 on:** April 23, 2018, 11:54:25 AM »

Quote from: joe1515 on April 23, 2018, 10:55:22 AM

OK, so I'm confused (granted it doesn't take much ) about the proper amount of CY I should be using per 1,000 grams of flour. Most information I read say's to use about 1 gram of CY per 1,000 grams of flour for Neapolitan style pizza.

Based on the prediction model chart assuming 80 fermentation hours at 37 °F, I should be using 6 grams of CY assuming 0.600%.

What am I missing, I am using the prediction model correctly? Is my calculation wrong?

Thanks,

Joe

You are reading it correctly. At 37F and 0.6% CY, the predicted hours is 80. 37F is pretty cold and will slow down the fermentation rate quite considerably. At this low temperature, the range can be pretty large on what works, as Craig says in this post: https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php?topic=26831.msg427980#msg427980

Aa you can see from the table, it predicts 80 hours at 37F and 90 hours at 36F, both using 0.6% CY. One degree Fahrenheit is a very small change and you might be hard pressed to keep a dough at a consistent temperature in a fridge over 80 hours. If you use this amount, the dough might not be done after 80 hours or maybe even 100 if you're unfortunate. It is of course possible to check on the dough the day before you intend to use it, and maybe take it out of the fridge some hours before you plan to bake and let the dough finish its fermentation closer to room temperature to speed it up.

You can certainly use a fridge, but you'll either need a lot of time or to increase the amount of yeast. If you ferment it at a higher temperature, you can lower the hours and/or amount of yeast.

The amount of yeast is one part of the equation. If you don't have information on the fermentation time and at which temperature, using a random recipe found on the internet won't be much helpful. You might even find recipes that suggest amounts and times that gives you under- or overfermented doughs.

blaise · « **Reply #415 on:** May 13, 2018, 04:46:53 PM »

Hi Craig,
Would it be possible for you to "publish" here a chart (or a piece of chart) with the % of CY from 0,010% up to 3,000% and the temperature from 80°F up to 95°F ?
If it's easier for you to show from 35°F to 95°F, it's fine enough !
I'm sure it doesn't make sense for you, so let me explain.
I'd like to take the last pre-oven rise into consideration in the total fermentation time calculation. I've decided that I can bring the dough balls in the kitchen 2 hours before baking time, but only as long as the temperature in the kitchen is not higher than 78°F. If the temperature is higher than 78°C and sometimes it can reach as close as 92°F, I presume it's better to have them there only 1 hour before baking time.
The problem is that there is no "1" hour in your already published charts in the columns with less than 1,000% of CY, whatever the temperature is.
In fact it would be great if you could publish your "Fermentation-Table---Extended" down to 95°F.
I don't know if this makes any more sense now... But I'd really appreciate

Thanks a lot in advance

TXCraig1 · « **Reply #416 on:** May 13, 2018, 07:10:09 PM »

Here you go (click to enlarge):

blaise · « **Reply #417 on:** May 14, 2018, 12:19:23 PM »

Thank you so much !

Heikjo · « **Reply #418 on:** May 14, 2018, 03:22:01 PM »

Edit: I got starter and yeast sheets mixed up and posted the sourdough sheet. Sorry for the confusion.

blaise · « **Reply #419 on:** May 16, 2018, 07:48:10 PM »

Hi there !

(You’ll quickly notice that English is not my mother tongue. Be indulgent!)

Maybe this may interest some of you.
I transferred Craig’s prediction time chart in a FileMaker database, so you can have it on your iPhone or iPad with the FileMaker Go app (which is free) or on your desktop or laptop if you have FileMaker Pro installed (which is not free). I’m afraid that the (free) FileMaker Go is available only for iPhone and iPad.

Till now the database shows the CY percentages only, because this is what I use. But should anybody ask, I can build versions with ADY and/or IDY.

I did this in order to facilitate the pizza dough schedule on the mid to long term.
It is especially useful if you have a cellar, a wine cooler, or a room where the temperature is, ideally, more or less constant and significantly cooler than the place where you will bake the pizza.

How does it work ?
See the screen shot !

On the upper left you have drop-down fields where you can set the °F temperature of the Cellar (or whatever room or wine cooler) and the °F temperature of the Kitchen or the place where the balls will spend their last hour(s). The converted °C fields are there just for info. The Cellar temperature can be set from 50°F to 77°F and the Kitchen temperature from 65°F to 100°F.
Below these temperature fields, you have a field called Pre-oven where you can set the number of hours you foresee for the balls to gently warm to room temperature before baking. You can set this Pre-oven hours field from 0 to 4 hours.
The likely “useful” percentages of CY (at least for me) are sandwiched between two columns.
The left column shows the hours needed for maturation considering the Cellar temperature only.
The middle column (to the right of the CY percentages) shows the hours that the dough (in bulk and balls) will actually spend in the Cellar considering the time that the balls will spend in the Kitchen. These fields are the same as the left ones minus the offset. And the offset, that you can see below the Pre-oven hours that you have defined, is automatically calculated in regard with the Pre-oven hours that you have set.
The far right column shows the total number of hours that you have to foresee between the moment the dough is ready to rest and the moment you bake the first pizza.

In the screenshot sample, you have to set the Cellar temperature to 62°F and the Kitchen temperature to 75°F, just because it is the actual temperature in these places. And you have apparently decided that the balls will rest at room temperature for 2 hours before baking.
From there you can consider it two different ways.
Or you definitely want to use 0.100% of CY ; therefore the dough (bulk and balls) will spend 29 hours in the Cellar at 62°F and then 2 hours in the Kitchen at 75°F, for a total time of 31 hours.
Or you consider that the best schedule for you is to prepare the dough 22 hours ahead of baking ; therefore you will use a percentage of 0.150% of CY and the dough will spend 20 hours in the Cellar and 2 hours in the Kitchen.

The only three fields that are accessible are the two °F temperatures and the red Pre-oven hours.
Once you have set these three fields you push/click the pizza-clock and all the rest is automatically calculated.
Easy peasy ;-)

Don’t hesitate to share your comments, suggestions and wishes !