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Offline quietdesperation

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yeast and flour supply chain?
« on: March 24, 2020, 11:01:11 AM »
Hi Tom,

 all the stores in nyc and westchester are sold out of kabf/kaap etc and yeast.  Is your sense this is a  short-term, 1-2 week shortage or do you think we're in for a long-term shortage? We have a somewhat limited supply of flour and I'm trying to calculate how often I should bake pizza/bread.
 
best,
"If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world" - the hobbit, jrr tolkien

Offline The Dough Doctor

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2020, 11:34:18 AM »
I'm not sure I fully understand your question but as far as shortages in flour and yeast are concerned it is my understanding that neither is in short supply, but there are some regional supply/distribution issues especially at the store/supermarket level. From what I've seen and heard yeast is still widely available from on-line sources, many have said the same for flour but shipping costs can dramatically increase the cost. You might check out any local restaurant supply facilities as they should have a good inventory of flour, maybe not exactly what you want but then this is a good time to learn to improvise. How long will this last? That's impossible to say but I think what we are seeing is spot shortages, none on the shelves today but they were full yesterday.
As to how often you should be baking bread and pizza, wow! That's a tough one to answer. I've got something over 200-pounds of flour on hand with plenty of yeast and baking powder so I'm pretty well set-up for the near future. Right now I bake every other day or so, bread, pizza, calzones, pies, cakes and kuchen. Yes, we have two chest freezers in the basement full of venison and pork as well as  frozen and dehydrated vegetables, fruit and berries all from last years harvest so we're not in the same boat as our city brethren, the point is make what you can as often as you can with the amount of supplies you have on hand and as you're out and about on a "necessities" run keep an eye out for something you can use to justify firing up the oven. I was out this morning and I could have snagged two bags of KA Whole-Wheat Flour on the shelf or a couple cans of baking powder but I didn't.
Tom Lehmann/The Dough Doctor

Offline quietdesperation

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2020, 11:45:22 AM »
Hi Tom, thanks for your reply. I wasn't so much looking for advice on how  often to bake, I can figure that out based on my supply but your insight into the supply chain is extremely helpful.

stay well!

best,
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 04:21:28 PM by quietdesperation »
"If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world" - the hobbit, jrr tolkien

Offline Hanglow

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2020, 12:01:49 PM »
Everywhere  is sold out across the pond too, most online shops have stopped taking orders as they work through the backlog and supermarkets say their supply chains are robust but they just can't stack the shelves quick enough. Hoping it'll calm down in a  couple of days. Meanwhile I have about 6kg of flour left so enough for a few weeks of personal use, also a local bakery delivers so I'm good for bread/croissants etc

Offline rkrider99

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2020, 02:19:08 PM »
I was at our local BJ's Club last Friday, and they were completely out of KAAP, and I think they also carry Gold Medal, which they were also out of. I stopped there this morning and there were 2 full pallets of KAAP flour available. Like Tom says, I think it's just a distribution issue right now. Good luck.

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Offline quietdesperation

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2020, 04:20:01 PM »
I was able to find reasonably priced yeast on Amazon and  Walmart's site this morning.  As of right now, still available.  My backup plan was to move to sourdough.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 04:21:57 PM by quietdesperation »
"If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world" - the hobbit, jrr tolkien

Offline QwertyJuan

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2020, 10:59:37 PM »
It's almost humorous... as a restaurant I have an endless supply of yeast and flour(I buy upwards to 10 x 20kg bags weekly). I don't understand what is causing the shortages in stores. My guess?? People are freaking out that the end of the world is here so they are buying flour and yeast so that in that event they can make their own bread??

Offline Marine0302

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2020, 11:15:31 PM »
I was at our local BJ's Club last Friday, and they were completely out of KAAP, and I think they also carry Gold Medal, which they were also out of. I stopped there this morning and there were 2 full pallets of KAAP flour available. Like Tom says, I think it's just a distribution issue right now. Good luck.

All of the stores here, Ventura County, Ca., that I have been to are pretty much out of flour (any flavor) and yeast.  I did score two small bags of flour at one store and that left them with one.

So, I went to Amazon and found the "Holy Grail".

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B078P9TBNW/?tag=pmak-20

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0001CXUHW/?tag=pmak-20

From what I understand the flour is good stuff and recommended for pizza and the yeast is touted to be a major brand.

The flour arrived in 2 days and the yeast will be delivered about a week after it was ordered.
 
You can't buy the flour at any retail outfit and the yeast is a real bargain compared to the supermarket prices so I would have purchased these regardless of the shortages in the stores.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Hope this helps.

Cheers

Offline quietdesperation

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2020, 10:01:27 AM »
50-pound bag  of kasl and a pound of idy, that should keep you busy for a while! 
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 10:04:40 AM by quietdesperation »
"If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world" - the hobbit, jrr tolkien

Offline ccgus

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2020, 05:20:31 PM »
The Washington Post had an article about this today:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/voraciously/wp/2020/03/24/people-are-baking-bread-like-crazy-and-now-were-running-out-of-flour-and-yeast/

> There’s no danger of flour running out, said Christopher Clark, vice president of communications for the North American Millers’ Association. “The industry has access to grain, has capacity, and will produce products our customers/consumers want as fast as we can,” he said in an email.
>
>“I can absolutely and unequivocally say there is no shortage,” said Robb MacKie, the president and CEO of the American Bakers Association, whose members include packaging companies as well as makers of flour and yeast. “What we have is a demand issue.”
>
>MacKie predicts that might ebb in the next few weeks as suppliers ramp up production, stores restock items and shoppers stop buying in bulk. “I don’t mean to sound flip, but at some point, you run out of room,” he said.

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Offline QwertyJuan

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2020, 11:17:46 PM »
Exactly. I have had NO problem getting as much flour as I want from my suppliers. It's just a little blip. And once everyone stops buying the flour market will probably be flooded. Once everyone has a 50lb bag in their pantry, they won't be buying for awhile.

While this "crisis" is going on, I am buying extra and selling it to some of my customers for COST. Those who are telling me they can't get it at the store. I've sold almost 10 bags so far and now that people know that I'm doing it, I'm bringing more in next week for them. I don't mind doing that during this time. Helping my customers out is the least I can do.

Offline RedSauce

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2020, 05:49:43 PM »
It took me by surprise. Sugar, salt? Plenty of it. A big empty void where the AP and bread flour should be. And it's stayed that way all week in the three stores I've tried. I didn't realize how many people in my area were desperate enough to get into bread baking if they couldn't find pre-made loaves. Will they keep doing it when things normalize? I'll consider myself in code red status when I can't get flour to make pizza dough.

Offline The Dough Doctor

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2020, 08:53:25 PM »
When things normalize the hoarders will be sitting on a life time supply of unopened bags of flour. I'm betting that very few even know how to make bread and even fewer will ever try their hand at it after they can just pick it off of the supermarket shelf. Has anybody heard if there has been a run on MREs (meals ready to eat/modern day military rations)? I used to see people buying that stuff by the pallet! I think as much, if not more went to the civilian market as went to the military.
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Offline ccgus

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2020, 11:00:30 PM »
A number of friends of mine have taken up making bread at home while staying away from the office or whatever their situation is. So I don't think _all_ the flour is going to waste. The previously linked WP article goes into that a bit as well:

> The coronavirus has created the perfect environment for a surge in bread-baking. People suddenly have time around the house to do fiddly things they wouldn’t normally, like proofing yeast and monitoring rising dough. Some are looking for a fulfilling hobby, or for sustenance for their families, or just something to do with the home-schooled kids that’s not another video game

Offline The Dough Doctor

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #14 on: March 26, 2020, 11:41:23 PM »
The big question though is, what are those individuals going to do once this is over?
Tom Lehmann/The Dough Doctor

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Offline amolapizza

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #15 on: March 27, 2020, 09:18:31 AM »
The sensible thing would be to continue baking once they've tasted home made bread.  But I have my doubts, seeing that people seem to prefer the cheapest foodstuff instead of quality ingredients.  Today everything has to be cheap, fast and easy.  ???

Hopefully a few of them will discover their internal baker and keep doing it after the crisis!
Jack

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Offline QwertyJuan

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2020, 10:29:13 PM »
The big question though is, what are those individuals going to do once this is over?
Tom Lehmann/The Dough Doctor

Off topic here... but HOPEFULLY most will still have jobs that they can return to?? This world-wide shut down of business is going to destroy the economy. Hope it's over soon.  :'(

Offline QwertyJuan

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #17 on: March 27, 2020, 10:29:59 PM »
A number of friends of mine have taken up making bread at home while staying away from the office or whatever their situation is. So I don't think _all_ the flour is going to waste. The previously linked WP article goes into that a bit as well:

> The coronavirus has created the perfect environment for a surge in bread-baking. People suddenly have time around the house to do fiddly things they wouldn’t normally, like proofing yeast and monitoring rising dough. Some are looking for a fulfilling hobby, or for sustenance for their families, or just something to do with the home-schooled kids that’s not another video game

Proofing yeast?? n00bs!!  :P

Offline RedSauce

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2020, 09:08:57 PM »
Flour is starting to slowly reappear. Any type you want as long as it's All Purpose.

Offline Chicago Bob

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Re: yeast and flour supply chain?
« Reply #19 on: March 28, 2020, 11:36:56 PM »
Proofing yeast?? n00bs!!  :P
you've never experienced out dated, dead yeast....
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